Group 1 - The US and China held trade talks in Geneva on May 12, achieving significant progress, with a joint statement committing to adjust tariff rates by May 14 [1] - The US will cancel tariffs on Chinese goods totaling 91% and modify a 34% reciprocal tariff, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days, retaining 10% [1] - China will also cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, with similar terms for the 34% reciprocal tariffs, resulting in a reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] Group 2 - Following the announcement, US-listed Chinese stocks surged, with the Nasdaq rising by 5.4%, and notable increases in companies like WeRide and Xiaopeng Motors [1] - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5%, indicating a positive market reaction to the trade developments [2] - The reduction in tariffs alleviates previous market concerns regarding consumer price increases and trade disruptions, enhancing investor sentiment [2]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Long - term cautious and bearish on palm oil; short - term, Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and test the resistance in the 8100 - 8150 yuan range. For soybeans, the US EPA's potential RVO announcement and improved biodiesel profits may boost CBOT soybeans. In China, soybean oil inventories are expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and spot basis will decline [1]. Meal - The Sino - US trade tension has eased, and the reduction in US soybean production and ending stocks estimates has led to a rise in US soybean prices. However, Brazilian supply pressure persists, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. The basis is under pressure, but the support around 2900 for US soybeans has strengthened [2]. Live Hogs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price differentials are narrowing, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is below 14000, with limited room for significant decline or rise [5][6]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are under pressure due to increased supply and new wheat substitution, but in the long term, they are expected to rise due to supply tightening, reduced imports and substitution, and increased demand [8]. Sugar - Short - term, raw sugar is expected to fluctuate widely between 17 - 20 cents/lb. Domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to remain volatile, with the reference range for the main contract at 5800 - 5950 [12]. Cotton - Short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. The macro environment is more favorable, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 13500 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - National egg supplies are generally sufficient, demand is average, and prices are expected to decline slightly and then stabilize [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On May 12, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8270 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.24%) from February 9; the futures price of Y2509 was 7970 yuan, up 44 yuan (0.56%); the basis was 300 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 17.58%) [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8600 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.58%); the futures price of P2509 was 8450 yuan, up 224 yuan (2.72%); the basis was 150 yuan, down 174 yuan (- 53.70%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9380 yuan, down 100 yuan (- 1.05%); the futures price of 01509 was 9400 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 0.63%); the basis was - 20 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 200.00%) [1]. - **Spreads**: Soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 6 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 57.14%); palm oil 09 - 01 spread was 2 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 85.71%); rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 178 yuan, up 30 yuan (20.27%) [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3100 yuan, down 100 yuan (- 3.13%); the futures price of M2509 was 2908 yuan, up 9 yuan (0.31%); the basis was 192 yuan, down 109 yuan (- 36.21%) [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.20%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2544 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.27%); the basis was - 84 yuan, down 23 yuan (- 37.70%) [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main contract was 4176 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.55%); the basis was - 196 yuan, down 23 yuan (- 13.29%) [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread was - 40 yuan, up 6 yuan (13.04%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread was 232 yuan, up 4 yuan (1.75%) [2]. Live Hogs - **Futures**: The main contract basis was 1110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.37%); the price of LH2507 was 13525 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.22%); the price of LH2509 was 13870 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.39%) [5]. - **Spot**: The average spot price in various regions showed little change, with a slight decline in some areas [5]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 147233, down 62 (- 0.04%); the weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan/kg, down 20.9 yuan (- 100%); the weekly piglet price was 26.13 yuan, down 0.9 yuan (- 3.22%) [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of C2507 was 2363 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.51%); the basis of Jinzhou Port FOB price was - 43 yuan, up 12 yuan (21.82%); the 7 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 20.00%) [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2507 was 2735 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.11%); the basis was - 65 yuan, up 3 yuan (4.41%); the 7 - 9 spread was - 67 yuan, up 5 yuan (6.94%) [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5712 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan (0.56%); the price of SR2509 was 2882 yuan, up 46 yuan (0.79%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 17.82 cents/lb, down 0.17 cents (- 0.95%) [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6155 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.33%); the spot price in Kunming was 5985 yuan, up 15 yuan (0.25%) [12]. - **Industry**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%); the cumulative sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2509 was 13240 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (2.24%); the price of CF2601 was 13380 yuan, up 255 yuan (1.94%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.64 cents/lb, down 0.08 cents (- 0.12%) [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14085 yuan, up 174 yuan (1.25%); the CC Index: 3128B was 14187 yuan, up 65 yuan (0.46%) [13]. - **Industry**: Commercial inventories were 415.26 million tons, down 36.26 million tons (- 8.0%); imports were 7.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons (- 41.7%) [13]. Eggs - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the 09 contract was 3800 yuan/500KG, up 33 yuan (0.88%); the price of the 06 contract was 2927 yuan, up 32 yuan (1.11%); the basis was 148 yuan/500KG, up 290 yuan (103.99%) [14]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 4.20 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 5.25 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.19%); the feed - egg ratio was 2.69, up 0.04 (1.51%) [14].

Report Date - The report is dated May 13, 2025 [1][5] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to predict their price movements [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is affected by the progress of Sino-US trade. The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9] - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend intensity is -1 [2][5][9] Base Metals - **Copper**: The strong LME copper spot price supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13] - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade weakly in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - **Alumina**: Likely to consolidate at a low level. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is -1 [2][17][18] - **Lead**: With weak supply and demand, the price will adjust within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][20][21] - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The trend intensity is -1 [2][23][26] - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory increases marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Although the tariff situation eases, the export profit remains in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [2][33][35] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is expected to open high and close low. The trend intensity is -1 [2][36][39] - **Polysilicon**: The news of production cuts drives the price higher. The trend intensity is 1 [2][37][39] - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely due to changing expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][40][42] - **Rebar**: The price rebounds from a low level boosted by macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the price rebounds from a low level due to macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The main production areas announce maintenance plans, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The port quotes show a strong willingness to increase, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - **Coke**: The sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][52][56] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][53][56] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increases, and the price is expected to be weak in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][57][59] - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly boosted by macro expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][60][63] - **Para-Xylene**: The price is expected to be strong unilaterally [2][64] - **PTA**: The strategy is to go long on PX and short on PTA [2][64] - **MEG**: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure is released periodically, and there may be support at the bottom [2][4][64] - **Soybean Oil**: The tariff expectation eases, and the macro impact is evident [2][4][64] - **Soybean Meal**: The trade friction eases, and the US soybean price rises, so the Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][4][66] - **Soybean**: The price rebounds and fluctuates [2][4][66] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][68] - **Sugar**: The price will consolidate within a range [2][4][69] - **Cotton**: The optimistic market sentiment drives the cotton futures price to rebound [2][4][70] - **Egg**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][72] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the contradiction to be released [2][4][73] - **Peanut**: The spot price is strong [2][4][74]

2025年05月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美贸易取得进展 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：LME铜现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：偏弱震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：低位整理 | 6 | | 锌：基本面累库，关注关税扰动 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 13 日 黄金：中美贸易取得进展 白银：震荡回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in the stock price of Lexin (LX.US) is driven by key developments in US-China trade negotiations and the company's strong performance, marking a return to a growth trajectory [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Lexin's stock increased by 11.81% to close at $8.71, with a trading volume of $34.42 million on May 12 [1]. - The stock reached a high of $8.86 during the day, achieving its highest increase in one and a half months [1]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) rose by 5.40%, with several Chinese concept stocks, including Lexin, experiencing gains of over 10% [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Lexin's performance indicators have shown consistent improvement, with early risk indicators for new assets decreasing by approximately 8% and 9% for FPD7 and FPD30+, respectively, in Q4 of the previous year [2]. - The company's profits have significantly improved, with Non-GAAP EBIT for the last four quarters being $282 million, $307 million, $409 million, and $460 million, reflecting sequential growth rates of 9%, 33.2%, and 12.5% [2]. - The market holds a generally optimistic view regarding Lexin's upcoming quarterly performance due to its established growth trend [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Lexin plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 25% of net profits starting this year, continuing its tradition of biannual dividends [3]. - The company will distribute approximately $0.11 per ADS in cash dividends for the second half of the year, with payments scheduled for May 16 [3]. - Several major brokerages, including UBS and Citigroup, have raised their target price for Lexin, with UBS increasing it to $13.6, a 41.7% increase from the previous target of $9.6 [3].

Market Performance - The shipping index continued its strong performance, rising over 11% during the morning session [1] - The main shipping contract saw a significant increase, reaching a peak of 1548 points, following a previous day of limit-up trading [6] - Chemical products such as styrene and synthetic rubber also experienced gains, with increases of over 2% [1] Commodity Inventory - Domestic commercial inventory of three major oils reached 1.82 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 40,000 tons [3] - The inventory of soybean and soybean meal also saw a slight increase, with major oil factories reporting a soybean inventory of 5.89 million tons, up 660,000 tons week-on-week [4] Industry Developments - The photovoltaic silicon material sector saw a significant rise, with rumors of major manufacturers proposing production cuts to stabilize prices [3] - There is speculation that leading silicon material manufacturers are planning to acquire remaining production capacity, although the feasibility of these plans remains uncertain [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. budget surplus for April was reported at $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion year-on-year, with customs tariff revenue reaching a historic high [8] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different commodities show diverse trends. Some are bearish in the short - term, some are experiencing rebounds, and others are in a state of shock - like trends. - **Commodity - specific**: - **Bean Meal**: Short - term bearish shock, with supply increasing and limited impact from Sino - US trade on prices [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline trend slows, with long - term supply pressure easing [1][5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound, affected by domestic inventory and international market conditions [1][7][8]. - **Cotton**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, driven by Sino - US trade and affected by supply and demand [1][9][10]. - **Red Dates**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, supported by pre - festival stocking [1][13][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure and in shock, with supply pressure expected to dominate in the second half of 2025 [1][15][17]. 3. Summary According to Commodity Categories Bean Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; spot price dropped 2.55% to 3227.71 yuan/ton [1][2]. - **Supply - side**: South American soybean production is determined, US soybean planting starts. In China, monthly imports from May to July are estimated to be over 10 million tons, and port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks [1][3]. - **Demand - side**: Pre - holiday stocking demand keeps the supply tight around May Day, but supply is increasing [1]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term bearish, with the short - term bearish pattern still dominant, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting weather and Sino - US relations [1][3][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Inventory of oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased month - on - month, but imports from May to July are expected to decline significantly year - on - year [1][5]. - **Supply - side**: Long - term supply pressure eases due to low import expectations [1][5]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term decline trend slows, with the short - term bearish pattern still dominant, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and Sino - US trade progress [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Futures price closed at 8024 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from the previous day; domestic commercial inventory decreased by 5.28% week - on - week [7][8]. - **Supply - side**: Low domestic inventory and imports, but Southeast Asian palm oil is in a stocking cycle [1][8]. - **Demand - side**: India's expected increase in imports in May boosts market sentiment, but Malaysia's exports in the first ten days of this month decreased year - on - year [1][8]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to gap resistance [1][7][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2509 increased by 2.24%, and ICE US cotton rose 0.04%; domestic spot increased by 0.46% [9][10]. - **Supply - side**: US cotton soil moisture improves, and China's new - season production is expected to be high [10][11]. - **Demand - side**: Entering the off - season, orders and operating rates decline, and Sino - US trade tariffs affect demand [11][12]. - **Price Trend**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, with support below 13,000 yuan, and caution is needed when chasing up [1][9][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2509 increased by 0.50%, and inventory of 36 sample enterprises increased by 175 tons [13][14]. - **Supply - side**: New - season jujubes have not blossomed, and old - crop inventory is high [14]. - **Demand - side**: Pre - festival stocking increases transactions, but overall demand is weakening [14]. - **Price Trend**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, with short - term support strengthening [1][13][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 decreased by 0.22%, and domestic spot price dropped 0.07% [15][16]. - **Supply - side**: Short - term supply growth slows, but medium - term supply may increase, and large - weight pig supply pressure persists [16][17]. - **Demand - side**: Consumption lacks continuous growth momentum [17]. - **Price Trend**: Under pressure and in shock, and contracts 07 and 09 should be sold on rallies [1][15][17].

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade agreement has provided a boost to the market, but progress on tariff issues has not completely alleviated the risks facing the US economy and stock market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors have finally relaxed after weeks of tension, but Wall Street leaders have mixed reactions, remaining cautious about potential market risks despite a more optimistic outlook for the US economy [1] - Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, believes the historic sell-off triggered by Trump has ended and maintains a year-end target of 6,500 for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% increase from current levels [2] - Wilson emphasizes that reduced tariff pressures create room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which would benefit risk assets like stocks [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, points out that the agreement has removed significant tail risks in the economy, restoring confidence among consumers, businesses, and international capital, potentially creating new growth momentum [2] - Slok notes that traders have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts from 3-4 times to 2 times this year, suggesting that improved growth prospects may offset inflation pressures [3] Group 3: Cautionary Perspectives - Roger Altman, founder of Evercore, advises the market to remain calm, stating that the agreement is encouraging but represents only a temporary achievement [3] - Altman highlights that the "90-day high tariff suspension" is merely a pause to negotiate a permanent framework, and there are still challenging issues to resolve between the US and China [3] - He warns that even with the tariff suspension, the overall tariff rate in the US will rise from 3-4% during the Biden administration to approximately 14%, which could lead to higher prices, suppressed consumption, and increased inflation [3]