2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.02%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.09%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate, with the core logic being weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1] - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the downside risk of treasury bond futures has eased, and there is strong support below. The medium - and long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term driving force is limited, so they will mainly oscillate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillation, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak and expectations of monetary easing are rising [1] Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the overall view is oscillation. Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated. Recently, overseas geopolitical factors have cooled, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the downside risk of treasury bonds has eased in the short term. Coupled with the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market, there is strong support below treasury bond futures. In terms of monetary policy expectations, May's credit and inflation data were weak, requiring a loose monetary environment for policy support, so the medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is solid. However, subsequent policies need guidance from the important meeting in July, and short - term driving force is expected to be limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been continuously adjusting this week, significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw. With the current interest rates remaining at a low level, profit - taking pressure has pushed interest rates slightly higher. The market's trading focus is unclear due to uncertain policy impacts in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band - based allocations [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.950，down 0.02%，成交量52163，down 1100；TF主力收盘价106.170，unchanged，成交量38895，down 930；TS主力收盘价102.510，unchanged，成交量24312，down 514；TL主力收盘价120.720，up 0.1%，成交量72122，down 2020 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2509价差 - 0.16，down 0.01；T2512 - 2509价差0.03，up 0.02；TF2512 - 2509价差0.07，down 0.02；TS2512 - 2509价差0.13，down 0.00；T09 - TL09价差 - 11.77，down 0.09；TF09 - T09价差 - 2.78，up 0.03；TS09 - T09价差 - 6.44，up 0.04；TS09 - TF09价差 - 3.66，up 0.02 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量202431，down 2650；T前20名多头191730，down 1983；T前20名空头206973，down 1544；T前20名净空仓15243，up 439；TF主力持仓量160108，down 1028；TF前20名多头147895，down 599；TF前20名空头170948，down 264；TF前20名净空仓23053，up 335；TS主力持仓量118869，up 621；TS前20名多头88068，up 211；TS前20名空头106959，up 919；TS前20名净空仓18891，up 708；TL主力持仓量115275，up 622；TL前20名多头109182，up 984；TL前20名空头116993，up 1959；TL前20名净空仓7811，up 975 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 250007.IB(6y）101.299，up 0.0155；2500802.IB(6y）99.0955，up 0.0001；240020.IB(4y)101.0633，down 0.0215；240020.IB(4y)100.8844，down 0.0667；250006.IB(1.7y)100.3688，up 0.0158；240010.IB(2y)100.8301，up 0.0069；210005.IB(17y)136.4191，down 0.5585；210014.IB(18y)132.6415，down 0.2480 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3650%，up 0.50bp；3y yield 1.4050%，down 0.25bp；5y yield 1.4950%，up 0.50bp；7y yield 1.5900%，up 1.00bp；10y yield 1.6535%，up 0.75bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight rate 1.3788%，down 4.12bp；Shibor overnight rate 1.3700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 7 - day rate 1.6668%，down 2.32bp；Shibor 7 - day rate 1.6700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 14 - day rate 1.7300%，down 2.00bp；Shibor 14 - day rate 1.7360%，up 1.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%，unchanged；5y LPR 3.5%，unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale 5093 billion yuan，maturity scale 2035 billion yuan，interest rate 1.4% for 7 - day，net investment 3058 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects；The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on June 25；The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and formulate a monthly and weekly national subsidy fund usage plan [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On June 26 at 20:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 21 and the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1；On June 27 at 20:30, focus on the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May；On June 27 at 22:00, focus on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in June [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，以应对半年末流 动性紧张的局面，维持流动性平稳。中长期来看，未来降息预期较强，国债期 ...

国债期货日报 2025/6/25 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 73376 | 108.995 | -0.04% T主力成交量 | | 763↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.190 | 0% TF主力成交量 | 65780 | 1080↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.512 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 33255 | 143↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 120.670 | -0.22% TL主力成交 ...

国债期货日报 2025/6/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 109.025 | -0.11% T主力成交量 | 51169 | -701↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.185 | -0.07% TF主力成交量 | 44144 | -12↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.504 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | 27094 | 14↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 120.930 | -0.27% TL主力成交量 | 76770 | 877↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.15 | +0.02↑ T09-TL09价差 | -11.91 | 0.23↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 | 0.02 | +0.00↑ TF09-T09价差 | -2.84 | 0.04↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.01↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.52 | 0.10 ...

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.8380%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.7070% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [2] - The overall funding situation is relatively loose, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly declining but remaining around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate increased by over 1 basis point [2] News Developments - Recent reports indicate that the scope of special bonds is expanding, with new uses including investment in government investment funds [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, focusing on land acquisition and settling local government debts [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent high-frequency data shows signs of weakening in exports, while the central bank's signals of support and declining funding rates are favorable for the bond market [4] - The overall bond rates are expected to maintain a downward trend, with a potential breakthrough at the 1.6% level for the 10-year government bond yield if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content in the provided report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators are weak and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The market has a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts due to weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. However, the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak, so the short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macroeconomic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. There is a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts because of weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. But the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak as the effect of the May rate cut needs to be tested and the second - half macro - policies await the guidance of the July Politburo meeting. So, the short - term is expected to be in oscillating consolidation [5].

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约持平，10年期国债期货（T） 主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.03%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term overseas disturbances have significantly increased, suppressing risk preferences. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the US intervention has an impact on the global and A - share markets. The domestic policy is expected to strengthen due to factors such as investment and inflation data [1][4]. - The market is in a pattern of frequent style switches between large - cap and small - cap stocks, lacking a continuous upward main - line opportunity [1]. - For different futures varieties, their price trends vary in the short and medium - term, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][5][8][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range oscillation, with an increasing probability of a rebound in IC and IM - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound oscillation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and try to go long on IM2507 on dips - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances suppress risk preferences; domestic demand needs further policy support; the market style switches frequently, and the four major indexes are at the lower edge of the box, increasing the probability of a rebound [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, and long - term bonds continue their relatively strong momentum - **Medium - term View**: Relatively strong - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in trading accounts for T2509 or TL2509, and hold long positions in allocation accounts - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances increase, benefiting safe - haven assets; the central bank's net injection has made the inter - bank liquidity balanced; domestic economic data shows that policy support is expected to strengthen [2][4] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79200 - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillation - based trading approach - **Core Logic**: Inflation remains high in the US; global copper supply is tight, and China's copper imports have changed; copper demand in the new energy vehicle industry is strong, while air - conditioner production varies; copper inventories have decreased; the US tariff policy intensifies the supply - demand imbalance, but the domestic off - season may affect prices [5][6][7] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 7350 - 7450 - **Medium - term View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 7000 - 8500 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000, and go short on futures on rallies - **Core Logic**: China's industrial silicon production has decreased; demand has also declined; the inventory is at a high level [8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 30,000 - 32,000 - **Medium - term View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 30,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2507 - C - 45000 and hold until maturity, and chase short on futures - **Core Logic**: China's polysilicon production has decreased; demand has declined; the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 58,000 - 60,000 - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with an operating range of 56,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 and hold until maturity - **Core Logic**: The spot price is at a low level, which is negative for futures prices; China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production has increased, and the inventory is at a high level [12][13]