Group 1 - The open interest in South Korea's three-year government bond futures contracts decreased by 17,468 contracts, marking the largest decline since May 13 [1] - This decline in open interest follows the election of Lee Jae-myung as the President of South Korea, who took office on June 4 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the Sino-US tariff negotiations has been largely digested. The bond market is now driven by the money supply and economic fundamentals. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and changes in the money supply. Given the recent underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones and the significant market divergence, there may be no good short-term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long-term bond prices due to short-term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.09%, 0.07%, 0.04%, and 0.1% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 12,841 and 9,425 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1,213 and 6,072 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 all increased by 0.02, while T06 - TL06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 spreads decreased by 0.04, and TF06 - T06 spread remained unchanged [2] - **Open Interest**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract open interests decreased by 225, 1,564, 339, and 2 respectively. T and TL top 20 long positions increased by 3,788 and 1,637 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 long positions decreased by 358 and 1,040 respectively. T and TL top 20 short positions increased by 1,978 and 852 respectively, while TF top 20 short positions increased by 3,052 and TS top 20 short positions decreased by 1,025. T and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 1,810 and 785 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 net short positions increased by 3,410 and 15 respectively [2] CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds, such as 2500802.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB, etc., all showed an upward trend [2] Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds increased by 0.75 - 1.00bp, and the 10Y yield increased by 0.10bp [2] Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight rates decreased by 1.37bp and 0.20bp respectively, while silver - pledged 7 - day, Shibor 7 - day, and silver - pledged 14 - day rates changed by 1.00bp, 2.80bp, and 1.00bp respectively [2] LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 214.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 215.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [2] Industry News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The production index and new order index reached their lowest levels since December 2022 and October 2022 respectively. The US raised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the groundless accusation [2] Key Data to Follow - On June 5th at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31st will be released. On June 6th at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. Overseas, yields of key - term Treasury bonds in the US, Germany, and Japan increased. The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Performance**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, TS2509 rose 0.050 to 102.396, with a 0.05% increase; TF2509 rose 0.150 to 106.020, with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The positions of some contracts increased, such as T2509 with an increase of 2562, while TF2509 decreased by 973. Trading volumes also varied among contracts [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed, for example, the cross - period spread of T2509 decreased from 0.0250 to 0.005 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - **Yield Changes**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. For example, the 10Y Treasury bond yield declined 1.9bp to 1.68%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 3, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. In May, the central bank carried out SLF operations of 14.01 billion yuan, and policy banks net - repaid 2700 billion yuan of PSL [3]. - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The OECD lowered the growth forecasts for the US and the global economy. The US 2025 growth forecast was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 2.9% [3]. - **International Relations**: The US increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, starting from June 4, 2025. The US also made unfounded accusations against China, and China firmly opposed these actions [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June due to a large number of maturing certificates of deposit. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic bond market rebounded, with spot bonds and futures strengthening. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.56%, and major interest - rate bond yields declined by 1 - 3 bp. The resumption of Trump's tariff policy increased risk - aversion, and the end - of - month liquidity was ample, leading to a temporary bond market rebound. Going forward, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain volatile [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The domestic bond market stopped falling and rebounded, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract up 0.56%, and major interest - rate bond yields down 1 - 3 bp. The resumption of Trump's tariff policy led to increased risk - aversion, and the end - of - month liquidity was ample [3]. - **Funding**: On May 30, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.40%, with daily net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [3]. - **Basis**: TS, TF, and T main contract bases are negative, indicating spot bonds are at a discount to futures and bearish. TL main contract basis is positive, indicating spot bonds are at a premium to futures and bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: TS, TF, and T main contracts are above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average upward, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Positions**: TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with long positions increasing; T main contract has a net long position with long positions decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: May's PMI rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the LPR was cut for the first time this year. The central bank adjusted MLF operations and mentioned potential RRR and interest - rate cuts. After the impact of the tariff war subsided and RRR and interest - rate cuts were implemented, the bond market's adjustment momentum is limited, and futures are expected to remain volatile [5]. 3.2 Market Review | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.725 | +0.21% | 96,000 | 285,750 | - 1,142 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.020 | +0.14% | 79,600 | 219,680 | 5,684 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.396 | +0.04% | 54,900 | 171,028 | 5,667 | 240012.IB | | TL2509 | 119.41 | +0.56% | 96,300 | 148,128 | - 780 | 200012.IB | [8] 3.3 Spot Bond Analysis The report presents DR interest rates and inter - bank Treasury bond yields and maturity spreads, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [9][13] 3.4 Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trends of T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 CTD bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [16][17][19]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.03%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.03%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.04%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.03%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The China's economic growth in April showed resilience, with industrial production and exports exceeding market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly fell short. The 90 - day window period from the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite, but long - term uncertainties remain. After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, there is a low probability of another such move in the short - to - medium term. The "export rush" factor will contribute to the stable growth of the Chinese economy in the second quarter. Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month. A strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - **Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends**: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market had a significant continuous increase until January 2025. After the central bank suspended open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then declined until mid - March when it rebounded. In early April, the futures prices rose due to the US tariff news, then fluctuated horizontally. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then had narrow - range fluctuations [9]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends**: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lowest points in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. The short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, dropped rapidly in early April due to tariffs, and then stabilized. As of May 28, it was around 1.68% [12]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve**: On May 28, compared with the end of April, the yield curve shifted upward and steepened, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 9BP respectively [15]. 3.2. Current Analysis - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 4.26%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.85%, manufacturing investment by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. High - tech industries and equipment purchase investment showed strong growth [20]. - **Real Estate Sales**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% [23]. - **Social Consumption**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. Categories such as household appliances and furniture had significant year - on - year increases [26][29]. - **Service Industry**: In April, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than March's 6.3% [32]. - **Foreign Trade**: In April, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2%. Exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%, to the EU by 8.27%, and decreased by 21.03% to the US. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, the CCFI US - West route index rebounded [35][38][41]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.2% [44]. - **Industrial Profits**: From January to April, large - scale industrial enterprises' operating income increased by 3.2% year - on - year, and total profits increased by 1.4%. In April, profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year [47]. - **Social Financing and Credit**: In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, and credit - caliber RMB loans increased by 2800 billion yuan, both lower than expected [50][53]. - **Monetary Supply**: At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year [56]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [59]. - **Prices**: In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [62][65]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting from May 15 and cut the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10BP starting from May 8. LPR and bank deposit rates were also lowered [68][74]. - **Exchange Rate**: From January to April, the US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB dropped after a brief rise in early April. The decline of the US dollar index reduced the pressure on the RMB's depreciation against the US dollar [71]. - **Interest Rate Spreads**: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread widened slightly in May compared to April. The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond interest rate spread and the 30 - year and 10 - year spread were at 0.22% on May 28 [80][86]. - **Government Bond Financing**: As of May 28, government bond net financing in May was 1494.8 billion yuan, maintaining a fast pace [83]. 3.3. Strategy Suggestions Considering that Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。目前外部风险因素位于暂缓期，不过国内宏观经济指标边 际走弱，降息降准的政策效果仍需数据验证，短期内继续降息的可能性较低，国债期 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests patience and a "more watching, less action" approach. As interest rates rise slightly, the cost - effectiveness of bond allocation is increasing. The current narrow - fluctuating market is a good opportunity for allocation funds to gradually build positions. Rumors of bond fund redemptions, mainly concentrated in insurance, may not pose a significant risk, and subsequent funds are likely to flow back to the bond market. There are also rumors of large banks buying short - term bonds, which may be for future central bank bond purchases [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened and fluctuated upward throughout the day, turned positive in the afternoon, and slightly declined at the close. Interest rates rose in the afternoon, possibly due to fund redemption rumors. The central bank conducted 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 157 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan. The pressure of cross - month funds is emerging, with most maturities rising above 1.6%, and exchange - traded funds approaching 1.8%. However, the central bank's continuous net injection maintains liquidity expectations [1]. 3.2. Market Judgment - The bond market lacks a clear trend, but as interest rates rise slightly, the cost - effectiveness of allocation increases. The current market is unfavorable for trading positions but suitable for allocation funds to build positions. There are both redemption and buying rumors in the market. The rumored large - scale redemption of bond funds by insurance institutions is likely true, and subsequent funds may flow back to the bond market. There are also rumors that large banks are buying short - term bonds in preparation for central bank bond purchases [3]. 3.3. Data Overview - **Contract Data**: The prices of some contracts such as TS2506 and TF2506 remained unchanged on the day, while T2506 and TL2506 had slight increases. The open interest of most contracts increased, except for the TL contract, which decreased. The trading volume of some contracts decreased, while the TF contract increased [4]. - **Funding Rate Data**: DR001, DR007, and DR014 all showed declines. The trading volume of DR001, DR007, and DR014 remained unchanged [6]. - **Yield and Spread Data**: The report also presents various yield and spread data, including 10 - year and 30 - year Chinese government bond yields, 7Y - 2Y bond spreads, US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury yields, and Sino - US interest rate spreads [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The US consumer confidence in May saw the largest increase in four years. Trump rarely praised the EU and was encouraged by the acceleration of trade negotiations. Japan's Ministry of Finance rarely "surveyed" the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds, leading to a violent rebound in Japanese bonds. In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the trading volume is insufficient. The stock index may fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, without obvious negative news, the bond market yields rose by about 1bp across the board, with the long - end adjustment larger than the medium - and short - end. From the institutional net subscription desensitization data, it seems that pure bond funds experienced a large - scale redemption on Tuesday. The last similar redemption was in mid - March when banks began to cash in floating profits. There were also rumors in the market that commercial banks' motivation to cash in floating profits at the end of June was stronger than before. From the recent market micro - trends, treasury bonds performed weakly relative to policy financial bonds, and the bond - swap basis widened slightly, indicating a local supply - demand "imbalance" in the market. When "limited short - term downward space" and "being bullish but not buying" become market consensus, the impact of specific types of institutional trading behaviors on the market is magnified in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 index fell 0.51%, that of SSE 50 index fell 0.51%, that of CSI 500 index fell 0.24%, and that of CSI 1000 index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate weakly and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.26%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it will fluctuate and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3809.20 | - 0.51 | 54529 | 140116 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2668.60 | - 0.51 | 28167 | 51671 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5578.00 | - 0.24 | 52001 | 109673 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 5915.00 | - 0.10 | 140778 | 186517 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.73 | - 0.11 | 58575 | 165848 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 106.03 | - 0.03 | 43924 | 128934 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 119.46 | - 0.26 | 62401 | 92091 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.41 | - 0.02 | 32028 | 104798 | [12]

品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 28日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡回调。目前海外美联储货币政策呈现鹰派，扰动央行利率降息节 奏。而国内 4 月经济数据有所走弱，5 月降息降准的政策效果有待观察，短期继续降息的可 ...