日本央行审议摘要：一位成员表示，鉴于当前高度的不确定性，央行应在此阶段维持宽松的货币政策， 保持现行利率水平，以坚决支持经济。 ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-24 贵金属 沪金涨 0.56 %，报 786.10 元/克，沪银涨 0.89 %，报 8809.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.86 %， 报 3365.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.86 %，报 35.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 98.16 ； 市场展望： 美联储票委表态鸽派，同时海外地缘政治风险释放，宏观环境将驱动白银价格表现强于黄金。 昨夜美联储官员表态连续鸽派，美联储理事鲍曼表示若通胀压力得到控制，她支持在下一次议 息会议中尽快降低利率，令其更接近中性水平，并维持相对健康的劳动力市场。芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比表示过去三个月并未出现太多的通货膨胀，若贸易政策的影响消退，应当继续进行 降息。联储宽松货币政策预期的释放将驱动银价表现强势。 海外地缘政治风险方面，今晨美国总统特朗普宣布，伊朗和以色列已达成一致，将进行全面停 火。避险因素对于黄金价格的支撑将有所弱化。 海外风险事件逐步消退的同时，联储持续释放宽松的货币政策预期，CME 利率观测器显示，市 场预期美联储下半年将分别在 9 月以及 10 月议息会议中进行 ...

Gold Market - The gold price has been under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and a lack of increased safe-haven buying amid Middle East tensions, with prices dropping to a one-week low of $3340 [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, suggesting a 250 basis point rate cut, while the Fed maintained rates in June, with an increasing number of officials expecting no cuts this year [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, including potential negotiations with Iran, has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced volatility, initially rising to $77.66 due to concerns over U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, but later fell to around $73 as negotiations were announced [3] - The easing of tensions through potential talks between the U.S. and Iran has reduced risk premiums in the oil market, leading to a significant price drop [3] - Current EIA data indicates rising seasonal demand and low compliance with OPEC+ production increases, which may limit further declines in oil prices despite geopolitical uncertainties [3] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index has retreated from above the 99 level, with support noted around 98.50 and resistance at 99.40, indicating potential for a bottoming pattern [4] Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones has shown a downward trend, with resistance at approximately 42200, suggesting a risk of accelerated declines if it remains below this level [5]

Group 1 - Record futures bets have been accumulated by U.S. rate traders, speculating that after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more dovish policy stance immediately [1] - The speculation about the successor to Powell leading immediate rate cuts stems from Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell for not lowering rates [1][2] - Futures bets have increased significantly since Trump indicated he would soon nominate a successor, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Standard Bank's Steven Barrow noted that Trump may choose a successor who is more in favor of loose monetary policy, which could complicate the confirmation process in Congress [2] - Analysts, including Gavekal Research's Will Denyer, suggest that Trump's early nomination of a Fed chair could lead to investor focus on the "shadow" Fed chair's statements and Powell's signals for nearly a year [2] - The futures market is seeing heavy selling of the March 2026 SOFR contracts while buying the June 2026 contracts, indicating a bet on rate cuts during that period [2][3] Group 3 - On Monday, futures position volume reached a record 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June 2026 contracts at their highest levels in the current policy cycle [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to focus on officials' forecasts, with the median dot plot predicting one rate cut in 2025 [3] - Traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will introduce approximately 43 basis points of easing by the end of the year, with the first cut likely in October [3]

韩国央行会议纪要：一位委员表示，委员会应维持宽松的货币政策立场，以应对疲软的经济状况。一位 委员表示，未来任何降息措施都应谨慎考虑。 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the total social financing increased by 22,894 billion yuan, which is 2,271 billion yuan more than the same period last year[2] - The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous value[2] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 6,200 billion yuan, which was lower than expected, indicating a need for improved effective financing demand[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Loan Trends - Government bonds increased by 14,633 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion yuan, supporting social financing expansion[9] - Corporate loans increased by 5,300 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2,100 billion yuan, influenced by global trade tensions[10] - Resident loans increased by 540 billion yuan, but this also represented a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan, showing weak leverage willingness post-interest rate cuts[10] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Implications - M2 growth rate in May recorded 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to slowed credit expansion[14] - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of recent financial support policies on market confidence[14] - Future strategies should focus on enhancing fiscal efforts and coordinating monetary policy to stimulate financing willingness in the real economy[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unexpected developments in US-China trade tensions[21]

俄罗斯政府预计央行将继续宽松货币政策。 ...

6月12日，韩国央行行长李昌镛表示，韩国央行将根据对宏观经济和经济指标的密切评估，来决定降息 的具体时机和幅度。李昌镛指出，央行"目前"将维持宽松货币政策。他表示，如果降息幅度过大，可能 会在首尔首都圈引发房价上涨的风险，而不是有效推动经济复苏。 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The US ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May, significantly below the expected 110,000, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum [2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, suggesting a decline in the labor market [2] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges with a reduction of 8,000 jobs, the largest drop this year, reflecting issues in the economic structure and potentially increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The consumer price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year as of April, leading investors to buy gold as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The price of spot gold rebounded from a low to a high of 3338.25 before retreating to around 3325.50 USD/oz, indicating a short-term downtrend [3] - The current technical pattern suggests a trading strategy where investors should consider short positions near the resistance level of 3340.00, with a stop-loss at 3377.00 and a take-profit at 3273.00 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - Spot silver prices continued to rise, currently quoted at 36.800, with a clear upward trend observed in the 1H chart [5] - The technical analysis recommends waiting for a price pullback to the support level of 36.340 to open long positions, with a stop-loss at 35.960 and a take-profit at 36.850 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates in the Eurozone to stabilize market expectations and address economic weaknesses, while facing structural challenges that will influence future economic performance [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - On June 5, the ECB reduced the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [1]. - The ECB's decision comes amid a weakening economic growth momentum, with GDP growth expectations for 2025 revised down to 0.9% [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Eurozone economy is experiencing internal demand deficiencies and external trade environment deterioration, exacerbated by increased tariffs on steel and aluminum products by the U.S. [1][3]. - The Eurozone inflation rate fell to 1.9% in May, the first time below the 2% target in eight months, providing room for the ECB to implement rate cuts [1][2]. Group 3: Impact of Rate Cuts - Short-term, the rate cuts are expected to lower financing costs, boosting consumption and investment, particularly in conjunction with fiscal stimulus plans like Germany's €46 billion corporate tax reduction [2]. - Long-term, the rate cuts indicate a shift in ECB policy focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing growth, although future rate paths remain data-dependent [2][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - European stock markets have shown positive performance, with the German DAX index up 22% year-to-date and the Stoxx50 index rising 10.6% [3]. - However, challenges persist, including weak growth in manufacturing and services, and potential conflicts between ECB monetary policy and national fiscal policies [3][4]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Key uncertainties include the progress of trade disputes, inflation trends, and the advancement of structural reforms, which are crucial for enhancing economic resilience [4]. - The ECB's recent rate cut is viewed as a defensive measure to respond to current pressures while allowing flexibility for future policy adjustments [4].