Economic Policy Insights - The Central Committee meeting on December 8 emphasized a more balanced approach to economic policy for 2026, continuing the trend of proactive macroeconomic policies[1] - The focus will be on enhancing quality and efficiency in economic development, alongside maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] Domestic and International Coordination - The meeting highlighted the need for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade conflicts, indicating a reserve of policy options to address global trade tensions[1] - There is an emphasis on integrating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic governance to improve policy effectiveness[1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The meeting reiterated the importance of expanding domestic demand while optimizing supply, aiming to enhance both incremental and existing resources[2] - Specific policies are anticipated in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" as it begins next year, indicating a systematic approach to policy implementation[2] Risk Management and Livelihood Concerns - The meeting noted positive progress in risk management in key areas, with a shift in focus from middle-tier risks to more critical issues[3] - There is a strong emphasis on addressing issues such as unpaid corporate debts and wages for migrant workers, reflecting a commitment to safeguarding livelihoods[3] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Asset allocation strategies should prioritize policies that emphasize multiple balances and quality improvements, particularly in consumer promotion and livelihood stability[3] - Attention should be given to the implementation of policies related to modern industrial systems and technological innovation as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan"[3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, emphasizing growth potential and favorable market conditions [12]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, which will drive consumption and improve investment returns [12]. - Innovation is highlighted as a key driver for new growth, with a focus on accelerating the cultivation of new growth drivers through technological advancements [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reform efforts to strengthen the vitality of high-quality development and promote coordinated urban-rural integration [12]. - There is a strong push for opening-up policies to foster win-win cooperation and stabilize foreign trade and investment [12]. - The report outlines a commitment to a comprehensive green transition, aiming to cut carbon emissions and expand the green economy while improving social security and people's livelihood [12].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 宏观政策的整体格局不会有显著变化，关键是节奏和方向。 12月政治局会议历来研究部署第二年经济工作，是中央经济工作会议的"前哨站"，通过12月政治局会议 通稿，可以让我们了解关于明年经济工作的核心思想和最高关切。 通稿提到"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，与去 年12月中央经济工作会议的表述相同，同时强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，暗示明年宽财政的整 体格局不会有显著变化，但财政政策空间可能会小幅提升。 第三，通稿重提"跨周期调节"，又提到"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，意味着明年政策节奏更值 得关注。如果外部环境相对平稳，则以用好存量政策空间为主，如果外部环境发生变化，更大力度的增 量政策可以相机而动。 增量政策更多指向了内需和民生。通稿连续第二年将内需列为经济工作的第一顺位，要求"坚持内需主 导"，后面进一步强调"坚持民生为大"，与四中全会精神一脉相承。"十五五"规划《建议》提出"坚持扩 大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费"、"促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 12 月政治局会议解读 提质增效，内需主导 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 会议： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 ...

回望2021年—2025年，开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的第一个五年，"极不寻常、极不平 凡"—— 在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想科学指引下，"十 四五"我国经济实力、科技实力、综合国力跃上新台阶，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐，第二个百年 奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 "实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程，需要不懈努力、接续奋斗。"习近 平总书记的重要讲话，蕴含着深邃的历史观和辩证法。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划建议，擘画了未来五年宏伟发展蓝图，新时代中国作出乘势 而上、接续推进中国式现代化建设的又一次总动员、总部署。 踔厉奋发，勇毅前行。用新的伟大奋斗创造出新的历史伟业，在人类的伟大时间历史中创造中华民族的 伟大历史时间。 领航—— "党中央集中统一领导是做好经济工作的根本保证" 高质量发展，"十四五"乃至更长时期我国经济社会发展的主题。 中华民族伟大复兴的征程，以势不可挡的姿态向前推进。 长江流域，尽显高质量发展新气象。 上游青海，保护冰川、治理黑土滩、恢复湿地，"中华水塔"水源涵养量持续提升，发展绿意盎然。 中游湖 ...

（青海玉树机场供图） 近期，随着玉树地区进入冬季备货旺季，米、面、油、蔬菜、药品等核心民生物资运输需求激增，青海玉树机场锚定民生保障核心使命，以高度的责任担当 和精准高效的保障举措，全力守护群众"面袋子""菜篮子""药箱子"安全，让边疆群众在寒冬中感受到民航服务的民生温度。 作为连接玉树与外界的重要交通枢纽，玉树机场深刻认识到冬季民生物资运输对边疆民生保障、社会稳定的重要意义。针对冬季运输"时效紧、标准高、天 气影响大"的突出特点，机场启动民生物资运输保障专项方案，开通"民生物资绿色通道"，从货物接收、安检、装卸到装机全流程优化，确保保障工作精准 高效。在资源调配方面，机场科学统筹人力、设备资源，增配货运操作人员、叉车等设备，设立民生物资专属作业区域，实行"随到随卸、随卸随装、优先 起飞"的保障原则，最大限度压缩货物在港停留时间，确保民生物资以最快速度送达群众手中。 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者路泞 通讯员仁青江措 龚生宏 报道：平均海拔超4200米的青海玉树藏族自治州，冬季严寒漫长、降雪频繁，境内山路崎 岖、交通不便，公路运输易受冰雪天气影响中断，民航运输凭借"高效快捷、受自然条件限制小"的独特优势，成 ...

Group 1: Tax-Free Policy and Consumption - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments announced a notification at the end of October, stating that from November 1, 2025, the tax-free shop policy will be improved, leading to a comprehensive upgrade from products to services and the business environment [1] - The new tax-free shopping policy in Hainan has shown significant results, with customs monitoring tax-free sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan as of November 17, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.52% [1] - The expansion of tax-free shops and policies like trade-in incentives are expected to inject strong momentum into year-end consumption, focusing on accurately activating demand [1] Group 2: Support for Technological Innovation - Fiscal policy has become an important support for the development of technological innovation, with structural tax reductions and fee cuts being key measures to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation [2] - In the first eight months of this year, tax reductions, fee cuts, and refunds supporting the manufacturing sector reached 1.2925 trillion yuan [2] - Local governments are actively establishing investment funds to support innovation, with the Jiaxing municipal government planning to set up a 10 billion yuan investment mother fund to create a comprehensive fund matrix [2] Group 3: Investment in People's Livelihood - The central government has allocated 1.16 billion yuan in subsidies for elderly care service consumption to support pilot projects in regions like Liaoning, Zhejiang, and Chongqing [4] - The central government has also provided a 3,600 yuan subsidy for childcare to families, reflecting a strong commitment to improving living standards [4] - In the first ten months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure reached 22.6 trillion yuan, with social security, education, and health expenditures growing faster than the average growth rate of 2% [4] Group 4: Focus on People's Livelihood in Fiscal Policy - The Minister of Finance emphasized the need to combine investment in material goods with investment in people to meet diverse public needs and stimulate domestic demand [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of increasing fiscal spending on people's livelihood, addressing issues in education, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare to enhance residents' happiness and consumption capacity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Committee has approved the "Suggestions" for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a modernized economic and social development strategy that aligns with national directives and local characteristics [4][13]. Economic Development - The "14th Five-Year" period has seen significant economic growth in Shandong, with 8 out of 21 key indicators achieved ahead of schedule and 13 meeting expectations, laying a strong foundation for the upcoming "15th Five-Year" period [3][12]. - The "15th Five-Year" period is critical for establishing a modern socialist province, with a focus on economic strength and modernization [3][12]. Strategic Planning - The "Suggestions" consist of three main sections, 14 parts, and 60 articles, aimed at implementing the spirit of the 20th National Congress and addressing the unique challenges and opportunities faced by Shandong [4][13]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of a modern industrial system as the foundation for provincial development, prioritizing the optimization of traditional industries and the cultivation of emerging sectors [6][15]. Innovation and Technology - The plan highlights the necessity of enhancing technological innovation, aiming to establish Shandong as a high-level innovative province and integrate technology with industry [6][15]. - Specific initiatives include the establishment of a regional technology innovation center and the promotion of collaborative innovation between enterprises and research institutions [6][15]. Open Economy - The "Suggestions" call for an optimized open economy framework, enhancing international competitiveness and resource allocation through expanded foreign trade and investment [7][16]. - Shandong aims to leverage international trade agreements and enhance its global economic presence through initiatives like "Ten Thousand Enterprises Going Global" [8][17]. Regional Development - The plan outlines strategies for regional coordination, focusing on the development of urban clusters and enhancing the competitiveness of the Shandong Peninsula city group [8][17]. - It emphasizes the implementation of the Yellow River strategy and the creation of a comprehensive development framework that connects various regions [8][17]. Social Welfare - The plan includes a strong focus on improving living standards, with a commitment to maintaining a high percentage of fiscal spending on social welfare, projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [9][18]. - Employment is prioritized as a key aspect of social welfare, with strategies aimed at supporting job creation and enhancing social security systems [9][18].

Core Viewpoint The news conference held by the Shaanxi Provincial Government highlighted the achievements in social welfare and construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on employment stability, social security reforms, talent development, and healthcare improvements. Employment and Social Security - The employment situation in Shaanxi has remained stable, with over 2.14 million new urban jobs created during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, supported by various employment policies and training programs [5][6]. - The social security system has been enhanced, with the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reaching 32 million, 5.66 million, and 7.27 million respectively, showing significant increases from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Talent Development - The province has focused on aligning talent development with key industrial needs, resulting in over 2.6 million professional technical personnel and attracting more than 6,000 postdoctoral talents for research and innovation [7][8]. - A comprehensive talent support system has been established, including a new skill level system and extensive training programs, contributing to over 6.1 million skilled workers in the region [8]. Healthcare Improvements - Shaanxi has strengthened its public health system, effectively managing multiple COVID-19 outbreaks and reducing the incidence of tuberculosis from 47.26 per 100,000 in 2020 to 36.72 per 100,000 [14][15]. - The province has improved healthcare access and quality, with 434 hospitals implementing streamlined services, and the establishment of regional medical centers to enhance healthcare delivery [15][16]. Education Development - The education system has made significant strides, with 8 universities included in national "Double First-Class" initiatives and over 600 new educational institutions built or renovated [9][10]. - The province has implemented various educational reforms, including a focus on moral education and the integration of technology in teaching, resulting in improved student engagement and performance [10][11]. Social Welfare and Governance - Shaanxi has enhanced its social welfare programs, with an increase in the average urban and rural minimum living standards by 10.1% and 15.5% respectively, ensuring support for over 1.19 million urban low-income individuals [19][20]. - The province has optimized social governance, with initiatives to improve marriage registration services and reduce funeral costs, enhancing overall community welfare [21][22].

Group 1: Employment Stability - The employment situation in Shaanxi has remained stable, with over 2.14 million new urban jobs created during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, supported by government-subsidized vocational training for 2.34 million people and the establishment of 788 employment service stations and 112 labor markets [1] Group 2: Education Quality Improvement - Shaanxi has implemented actions to enhance basic education, including the construction and renovation of over 6,000 compulsory education schools, achieving full coverage of standardized high schools at the county level, and maintaining a 97% enrollment rate for compulsory education among eligible disabled children [1] Group 3: Public Health Upgrades - Shaanxi has effectively responded to public health challenges, controlling the spread of infectious diseases and completing reforms in the disease control system, with a significant decrease in tuberculosis incidence from 47.26 per 100,000 in 2020 to 36.72 per 100,000 [2] Group 4: Social Safety Nets - The province has strengthened its social safety nets, incorporating 807,500 individuals from poverty alleviation and monitoring programs into civil service guarantees, and providing assistance to 9.34 million people in education, 11.2 million in healthcare, and 647,500 households in housing [2] Group 5: Healthcare Insurance Network - Shaanxi has been working to strengthen its healthcare insurance network by building a comprehensive insurance database and implementing multi-tiered insurance systems to ensure that all citizens have access to medical care [3]