交易员认为美联储今年第三次降息的概率为50%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of the Stock Connect holdings reached approximately 2.59 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, an increase of 54.06 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [4][8] - The proportion of holdings in the main board increased by 1.04 percentage points, while the proportion in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board decreased by 0.65 and 0.39 percentage points, respectively [4] - The proportion of holdings in cyclical, growth, and stable styles increased by 2.37, 0.08, and 0.05 percentage points, while consumer and financial styles decreased by 2.37 and 0.15 percentage points [4] Group 2 - The largest sectors by Stock Connect holdings in Q4 were new energy (17.78%, -0.12 percentage points), electronics (13.91%, -0.33 percentage points), and non-ferrous metals (7.18%, +1.96 percentage points) [8] - Non-ferrous metals, communication, and basic chemicals saw significant increases in holdings, while pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and automotive sectors experienced notable declines [8][14] - The net inflow for non-ferrous metals was 24.872 billion yuan, for communication was 11.278 billion yuan, and for basic chemicals was 5.711 billion yuan, while pharmaceuticals saw a net outflow of 25.665 billion yuan [8] Group 3 - The sectors with the highest overweight ratios were new energy (11.34%), electronics (2.80%), and non-ferrous metals (2.56%), while the lowest were banking (-3.93%), oil and petrochemicals (-2.37%), and computers (-2.26%) [15] - The overweight ratios for non-ferrous metals, communication, and basic chemicals increased by 1.40, 0.47, and 0.29 percentage points, respectively, while those for pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and banking decreased [15] Group 4 - Core assets and growth stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, China Ping An, and Siyuan Electric saw significant changes in foreign holdings, with the concentration of top five holdings decreasing [18] - The top three stocks by Stock Connect holdings were Ningde Times (254.343 billion yuan), Midea Group (77.049 billion yuan), and Kweichow Moutai (75.812 billion yuan) [18] - The largest net inflows were seen in Ningde Times (8.813 billion yuan), Luxshare Precision (5.737 billion yuan), and Weichai Power (5.124 billion yuan) [18] Group 5 - Stock Connect funds are expected to continue increasing their positions in core assets, technology, and cyclical sectors in Q1 2026 [21] - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle may favor technology growth and certain cyclical sectors, attracting foreign capital [21] - The expected earnings growth in technology and cyclical sectors, along with favorable policies, may further enhance the attractiveness of these sectors to foreign investors [21][23]

摩根大通策略师建议将做空两年期美国国债作为一项 "战术性" 交易，理由是美国经济增长前景韧性十 足，美联储难以大幅降息。 责任编辑：郭明煜 摩根大通策略师建议将做空两年期美国国债作为一项 "战术性" 交易，理由是美国经济增长前景韧性十 足，美联储难以大幅降息。 这家华尔街大行的观点发布于周五关键美国通胀报告出炉前夕。这份报告或将为美联储下一步行动提供 新线索，任何物价压力缓解的迹象，都可能刺激市场对短期、对政策敏感的国债的需求。本周美债收益 率剧烈震荡，受科技股抛售及强劲美国就业数据影响，市场也在热议特朗普提名的美联储主席候选人沃 什将如何制定政策。 目前交易员预计，美联储将在 7 月降息 25 个基点，并在年底前再降息一次。而在本周公布超预期就业 数据前，市场几乎已定价美联储会在 6 月降息。周五亚洲交易时段，两年期美债收益率小幅上行 2 个基 点至 3.47%，此前一个交易日则下跌约 5 个基点。 部分市场人士与摩根大通观点相左。 对冲基金经理大卫・艾因霍恩押注，沃什领导的美联储将比市场当前预期 "大幅更多" 降息。绿光资本 联合创始人表示，他已买入有抵押隔夜融资利率（SOFR）期货，预期若美联储更激进降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, suppressing the mid - year Fed rate - cut expectation. The first rate cut this year is postponed to the July FOMC meeting, causing a marginal weakening of market risk appetite and a collective oscillating correction in the precious metals market. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. The core variable lies in the balance between the subsequent inflation rebound risk and the cooling trend of the employment market. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium still have room to rise under the boost of their financial attributes [7]. - The EU's official postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and the simultaneous strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards have led to higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales have been moderately revised down due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial fundamentals of platinum and palladium still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, combined with the implementation of the new vehicle emission policy, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - The US January non - farm payrolls data showed an unexpected increase, but last year's data was also unexpectedly revised down, intensifying market divergence in interpreting the non - farm data. Fed officials still have differences in their recent statements, with some re - emphasizing the risk of inflation rebound. They will continue to follow a data - dependent path [7]. - The short - term trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, they have room to rise under financial - attribute support [7]. - The EU's new policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve platinum's medium - to - long - term demand. The "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue due to the supply - demand pattern [7]. - The London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2200 and support at $2000; the London palladium may face resistance at $1800 and support at $1600. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may trade in the range of 460 - 600 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may trade in the range of 400 - 460 yuan/gram [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange oscillated within a range. As of February 13, 2026, the palladium 2606 contract was at 416.80 yuan/gram, up 1.53% week - on - week; the platinum 2606 contract was at 523.80 yuan/gram, up 3.52% week - on - week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 3, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 20,207 contracts, down 8.26% month - on - month; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 2,307 contracts, up 18.77% month - on - month [13][17]. - This week, the basis of the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the NYMEX weakened. As of February 12, 2026, the basis of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, and the palladium contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram; the NYMEX platinum basis was - 22.30 dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 52.50 dollars/ounce, showing a week - on - week weakening [18][20][27]. - This week, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both decreased. As of February 12, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369.21 ounces, down 9.76% month - on - month; the palladium inventory was 186,863.10 ounces, down 2.10% month - on - month [28][32]. - Platinum and gold prices showed a strong synchronicity, with platinum price fluctuations being more significant. The gold - platinum ratio declined this week [33]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [39]. - Since 2023, the demand for platinum and palladium in vehicle exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [45][50]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [55]. - The price differences between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium have shown a converging trend [59]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield fell nearly 4% [63]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio declined [67].

静待美国1月CPI登场！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌1.34%，纳指跌2.03%，标普500指数跌1.57%。 隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴跌162.57美元，跌幅3.2%，报4921.77美元，为一周以来最大单日跌幅。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅上涨，目前在4977美元附近徘 徊。 与此同时，现货白银跌势更猛，尾盘一度下破75美元/盎司，最终收跌10.64%，报75.26美元。今日欧市盘中，白银小幅上涨，目前在78.89美元附近徘徊。 消息面上，美国上周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，预估为22.4万人，前值为23.1万人。 市场预计1月CPI和核心CPI同比涨幅均降至2.5%（距离美联储2%目标只有一步之遥）。如果低于2.5%，黄金和股市可能共振上涨；刚好2.5%，市场可能 会短暂震荡，然后回归平静；高于2.7%，这才是风险，除美元以外，一切都可能下跌。 还有一个细节很重要，市场会更关注环比——预计1月核心CPI环比涨幅从0.2%升至0.3%。如果同比下降，但环比加速，那是隐患，因为通胀拐点往往先 体现在环比。 此外，针对鲍威尔的调查，贝森特突然"松口"。 据美媒最新报道，美国财政部长贝森特在一次闭门会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to mixed market signals, including strong U.S. employment data and geopolitical risks [2][3]. - On February 13, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 1104.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.1 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 1110.10 yuan per gram [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 5.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 94.1% [1]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed a significant increase in employment, which exceeded expectations and led to a decrease in the unemployment rate, indicating resilience in the labor market [2]. - The labor department significantly revised down the projected non-farm employment numbers for 2025, removing most of the expected job additions for that year [2]. - The market is grappling with the credibility of the January data against the backdrop of the downward revision for 2025, resulting in high volatility in gold and silver prices [2]. Group 3 - New Century Futures indicates that gold prices are maintaining a volatile trend due to strong U.S. employment data, which undermines expectations for a rate cut in March [3]. - Concerns over AI disruption continue to pressure the dollar index, providing support for gold prices [3]. - A decrease in gold ETF holdings has weakened investment demand, while ongoing geopolitical risks and a trend of central banks increasing gold reserves remain long-term supportive factors for gold [3].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate as early as March, with up to three rate hikes possible by 2026 due to persistent inflation and a weak yen [1][6] - Positive market factors include a nominal economic growth rate of 3% to 4% and clearer policy strategies from Prime Minister Kishida [1][6] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were reported at 227,000, slightly above expectations, indicating a recovery in economic activity following severe winter weather [1][6] Group 2 - The Eurozone's adjusted trade balance for December and the adjusted GDP growth rate for Q4 are key data points to watch [2][7] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is also a significant indicator to monitor [2][7] Group 3 - Gold prices fell significantly, dropping below the 5000 mark and reaching a four-day low, trading around 4950, influenced by profit-taking and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts [3][8] - The USD/JPY exchange rate declined to around 153.30, influenced by concerns over potential Bank of Japan interventions and expectations of interest rate hikes [4][9] - The USD/CAD exchange rate saw a slight increase, trading around 1.3620, supported by a strong U.S. non-farm payroll report and easing oil supply concerns [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, impacting A-share investors and altering expectations for monetary policy adjustments in China [1] Group 1: U.S. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm employment data showed a substantial increase, with actual figures at 130,000 compared to the expected 60,000 to 70,000, indicating a robust job market [1] - This positive employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to lower interest rates, which affects global monetary policy expectations, including those in China [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates has been pushed back to July 2026, which limits the likelihood of significant monetary easing in China in the first half of the year [1] - Major investment banks, including UBS and Citigroup, predict that China's interest rate cuts in 2026 will be around 20 basis points, indicating limited monetary policy support for a bull market [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current labor market improvement in the U.S. is attributed to a significant rise in healthcare-related employment, which may be an anomaly; the sustainability of this trend will be monitored through upcoming data [1] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state in the first half of the year, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than a broad bull market, as the likelihood of a comprehensive bull market is low [1]

作者：春天 导语：黄金基金ETF凭借低费灵活、精准跟踪金价的核心优势，成为衔接个人投资者与黄金市场的最优 桥梁。 1. 宏观政策支撑：美联储降息周期开启，贵金属估值修复 黄金价格与美元、实际利率呈现显著负相关性。2026年以来，美联储加息周期正式落幕，市场普遍预期 年内将迎来多次降息，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，今年6月美联储降息25个基点的概率达 61%，美元指数随之承压下行，实际利率回落，显著降低黄金的持有机会成本。历史数据显示，降息周 期中黄金往往迎来结构性上涨行情，而黄金基金ETF（518800）作为跟踪国内金价的核心工具，将直接 受益于这一宏观红利，净值与金价形成同步联动，完美承接政策红利带来的上涨空间。 2. 需求端发力：全球央行购金+去美元化，构筑长期支撑 近年来，全球央行持续加大黄金储备力度，去美元化趋势下，黄金作为"非信用资产"的价值被重新重 视。2025年全球央行购金需求保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金，截至2026年2月，全球央行黄金持仓 量连续多个季度攀升，中国、印度等新兴市场国家购金需求旺盛，其中波兰央行计划进一步增持150吨 黄金，为黄金价格提供了强劲的底部支撑。 摘要： ...

Market Overview - Asian stock markets retreated from record highs as investors locked in profits ahead of the Chinese New Year, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index falling 0.9%, marking its first decline in six trading days [1] - The South Korean Kospi index rose 0.9%, showcasing resilience amid concerns over U.S. tech stocks due to AI-related anxieties [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.11%, partially recovering from gains driven by risk aversion [1][5] Commodity Performance - Gold prices rose by 0.7% to approximately $4,950 per ounce, while silver saw a daily increase of 3%, reaching $77.46 per ounce [1][5] - Bitcoin rebounded after four consecutive days of decline, trading at $66,335.45 [5] Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. January inflation data, with expectations for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.5% year-on-year [1][8] - Traders have pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from June to July, with minimal likelihood of a cut in March [1][8] - Citigroup's Benjamin Wiltshire cautioned that the market may be overly optimistic about U.S. inflation prospects, suggesting that inflation expectations could be revised upward [8] AI Market Impact - The volatility in U.S. markets reflects the high risks associated with the AI boom, but the impact on Asian markets has been relatively contained so far [7] - Applied Materials' strong post-market performance indicates potential easing of AI-related concerns [7] Regional Stock Performance - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index has risen approximately 12% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index has erased all its gains for the year, currently down 0.2% [2] - The South Korean Kospi index has surged 32% this year, making it the best-performing stock market globally [2]