德国第二季度未季调GDP同比持平，预期增长0.1%，前值为下降0.20%。 ...

RT Daniel Priestley (@DanielPriestley)Billionaire hedge fund manager @RayDalio has said the UK is in a debt doom loop.The government has 101% of debt to GDP ratio. It spends 45% of GDP. It borrows to pay interest payments. This is wildly unsustainable and irresponsible.The doom loop bit happens when the government raises taxes to fund debt, higher taxes reduce growth, reduced growth reduces investment, reduced investment causes wealth creators to leave and the 1% who pay 30% of the taxes pull away from the ...

SHMET 网讯：美国经济第二季度增速可能反弹，但进口波动扭曲数据真相，消费者支出仅温和增长，企业设备投资停滞，这些迹象显示经济健康度被 严重高估。 美国商务部将于周三发布的GDP初值报告将再现一季度（1-3月）的贸易数据失真现象——当时GDP出现三年来首次萎缩。经济学家指出，美国总统特 朗普的保护主义贸易政策（包括全面加征关税与暂缓提高税率）导致经济脉搏难以准确捕捉。 桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利（Stephen Stanley）直言："连续两个季度的GDP总体数据都无法反映真实经济图景，特朗普政府不可 预测的关税策略已产生广泛涟漪效应，企业界因此陷入集体谨慎。" 路透调查显示，美国二季度GDP年化增速或达2.4%（一季度为下降0.5%），经济总量有望首次突破30万亿美元（未通胀调整）。但周二最新数据促使 部分经济学家将预测上调至3.3%——6月商品贸易逆差收窄至近两年最低，库存微增。 贸易在第一季度使GDP减少了创纪录的4.61个百分点。尽管预计会出现逆转，但部分增长可能被低库存所抵消，而低库存是外国商品流入减少的结果。 贸易和库存是GDP中最不稳定的组成部分。库存曾在今年第一季度为GDP ...

Group 1 - The upcoming GDP data may show a rebound, but trade policy disruptions and structural weaknesses are masking true growth momentum [1] - A survey indicates that after a 0.5% contraction in Q1, the annualized GDP growth for April to June could reach 2.4%, with some institutions raising expectations to 3.3% due to revised trade and inventory data [1] - The contribution of trade to GDP saw a record decline of 4.61 percentage points in Q1, and while some reversal is expected in Q2, low inventory levels due to decreased import flows are dampening the positive effects of trade growth on GDP [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, is expected to show only a modest recovery after stagnation in Q1, while business investment is likely to remain weak [2] - The "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over ten years, with only a 0.5% average annual increase in real GDP, raising questions about the effectiveness of the policy [2] - The labor market is a critical observation point, with expectations that as long as layoffs do not significantly increase, the economy may maintain growth in the second half of the year, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of final sales to domestic private buyers is expected to be lower than Q1's 1.9%, indicating weak terminal demand [3] - Balancing trade protection with economic growth presents a challenge for policymakers and businesses alike [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, reaching $86 billion [1] - In June, total U.S. imports decreased by 4.2% to $264.2 billion, with consumer goods imports hitting the lowest level since September 2020, and industrial goods imports at a new low since 2021 [2] - Exports saw a slight decline of 0.6% in June, indicating a mixed performance in trade [2] Group 2 - The improvement in trade data has led some economists to revise their forecasts for U.S. GDP in the second quarter, suggesting a potential reversal of trade distortions that negatively impacted GDP earlier in the year [2] - U.S. manufacturers are still facing uncertainties due to changing tariff policies, with risks of significant tax increases if agreements are not reached by the upcoming deadline [2] - More comprehensive trade data for June, including the balance of services, is scheduled to be released on August 5 [2]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached intra-day record highs but closed in the red, with the Dow down 204 points (-0.46%), S&P 500 down 18 points (-0.30%), Nasdaq down 80 points (-0.38%), and Russell 2000 down 13 points (-0.61%) [1] - Trade deals are progressing but lack the strength to drive the market higher, with Q2 earnings showing some weaknesses outside of Big Tech [2] Federal Reserve Policy - A new announcement on Fed policy is expected, with the current interest rate of 4.25-4.50% likely to remain unchanged for the fifth consecutive FOMC meeting [3] - Some analysts anticipate dissent among Fed members regarding the need for rate cuts despite current unemployment at +4.1% and inflation at +2.7% [3] Earnings Reports - **Starbucks (SBUX)**: Reported Q3 earnings of $0.50 per share, missing the consensus of $0.65, attributed to a one-time charge of $0.11. Revenues were $9.50 billion, exceeding expectations of $9.30 billion. Same-store sales fell -2% compared to a -1.3% consensus [4][5] - **Visa (V)**: Reported earnings of $2.98 per share, beating expectations of $2.86, with revenues of $10.2 billion surpassing the $9.87 billion forecast. Despite strong performance, shares fell -3% in after-hours trading [6] - **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: Reported Q2 earnings of $55.40 per share, exceeding the $50.59 estimate, with revenues of $6.8 billion above the $6.56 billion consensus. Gross bookings reached $46.7 billion [7] - **Mondelez (MDLZ)**: Reported earnings of $0.73 per share, beating estimates by $0.05, with revenues of $8.98 billion exceeding the $8.88 billion expectation. The company faced challenges from rising cocoa prices and tariffs [8] Upcoming Market Events - The earnings season is expected to peak with reports from major companies like Microsoft and Meta Platforms, along with others such as Ford and Qualcomm [9] - Private-sector payroll data from ADP is anticipated, with a consensus of +64K jobs for July, following a previous decline of -33K [10] - Q2 GDP is projected to rebound to +2.3% from Q1's -0.5%, influenced by tariff policies and economic outlook improvements [10]

After the big tariff announcement, something happened that shocked economists. And it wasn't the stock market dropping. It was the value of the dollar dropping.Usually, in times of market turmoil, it increases because investors are flocking to the US for safety. That national debt was also one of the main reasons the US's credit rating was downgraded soon after. Congress spends more than it brings in through tax revenue.For 20 years, we've had a budget deficit. 2024's $1.8% $8 trillion deficit was added to ...

Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The week includes the Jolt survey, consumer confidence data, and the Fed survey [2] - ADP number is expected to be on the low side, with 82,000 expected [3] - GDP adjustments are anticipated due to import handling [3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released [4] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to be 102,000, but previous reports have surprised to the upside [4] - The Fed meeting and announcement are significant, with potential dissents from Waller and Bowman [5] - There's a very low probability (2.1%) of a Fed rate cut in July, but a 66% probability for September and 63% for December, indicating expectations of two cuts this year [6][7] Tariffs & Economic Impact - The removal of crazy high tariffs and uncertainty about tariffs is noted [9][10] - The focus shifts to the economic impacts of tariffs, including potential inflation and weakened growth [10] - The stock market's reaction to these economic factors is being observed, with some suggesting a potential disconnect between the stock market and the economic outlook [10][11]

All right, let me just talk to you about the broader market. I mean, you know, it's very important to note out the NASDAQ and the S&P, they're both at record highs, double digit record highs this year so far. So, is the the concern about tariffs in the market, has it maybe been overblown.>> I don't think so. Uh, if you take out technology and communication uh sectors out of the S&P, earnings are only up less than 1% so far with revenue growth at about 3%, which is in line with nominal GDP, give or take. So ...

Key Points Summary 1. This Week's Key Focus - From July 27th to 30th, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden [2][3] - On July 30th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of the US Q2 GDP [2][10] - On July 31st at 02:00, the Fed will announce its interest - rate decision, expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged [2][13] - On July 31st at 09:30, China will release July's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI [2][14] - On July 31st at 20:30, the US will release the June PCE price index [2][18] - On August 1st at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non - farm payrolls report [2][23] 2. This Week's Hotspot Preview July 28th - The third round of China - US economic and trade talks is held. The outcome may impact relevant futures prices, with August 12th being the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs [3] July 29th - The US Conference Board will release the July consumer confidence index at 22:00. An index higher than the previous value (expected 95.9, previous 93) will help non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress gold and silver futures [4] July 30th - Germany will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 16:00. An expected quarter - on - quarter rate of - 0.1% (previous 0.4%) may slightly suppress non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but help gold and silver futures [6] - The Eurozone will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 17:00. Expected quarter - on - quarter rate of 0% (previous 0.6%) and year - on - year rate of 1.2% (previous 1.5%) may have a similar impact as Germany's data [7] - The Eurozone will release July's economic and industrial景气指数 at 17:00, with expected values of 94.8 (previous 94) and - 11 (previous - 12) respectively [8] - The US ADP will release the change in July ADP employment at 20:15. An expected increase of 75,000 (previous - 33,000) will help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [9] - The US will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 20:30. An expected annualized quarter - on - quarter rate of 2.5% (previous - 0.5%) will have a similar impact as the ADP employment data [10] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45, expected to keep the overnight lending rate at 2.75% [11] - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25th at 22:30. A continued decline (previous 3.169 million barrels) will help crude oil and related commodity futures [12] July 31st - The Fed will announce its interest - rate decision at 02:00, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. Focus on the press - conference content and its impact on the futures market [13] - China will release July's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI at 09:30, with expected values of 49.7 (same as previous) and 50.5 (same as previous) respectively [14] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision and outlook report at 11:00, and Governor Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30, expected to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% [15] - The Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate at 17:00, expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [16] - The US will release June's personal spending and income at 20:30. Expected monthly rates of 0.4% (previous - 0.1%) for personal consumption expenditure and 0.2% (previous - 0.4%) for personal income may suppress gold and silver futures but help industrial futures other than gold and silver [17] - The US will release the June PCE price index at 20:30, with expected annual rates of 2.5% (previous 2.3%) for PCE and 2.7% (same as previous) for core PCE [18] - The US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26th at 20:30. An expected number of 215,000 (previous 217,000) may suppress gold and silver futures but help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures [19] August 1st - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for July will be released at 9:45. An expected value of 50.5 (previous 50.4) slightly lower than the previous value may slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but help treasury bond futures [20] - The Eurozone will release the July CPI initial value at 17:00. Expected annual rates of 1.9% (previous 2.0%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.3% (previous 2.4%) for the core harmonized CPI [22] - The US will release the July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30. Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs of 110,000 (previous 147,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous 4.1%), and an average hourly wage annual rate of 3.8% (previous 3.7%). Fewer new jobs than the previous value will help gold and silver futures but suppress other commodity futures [23] - The US ISM will release the July manufacturing PMI at 22:00. An expected value of 49.5 (previous 49) slightly higher than the previous value will slightly help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [24]