来源：智通财经 现货黄金价格重回5000美元上方，现货白银价格重新站上80美元。 继2月9日亚市盘中突破5000美元后，当日现货黄金价格继续上涨，收盘交投于5060美元/盎司附近。不 过，2月10日开盘后现货黄金再度出现回调，一度跌破5000美元，截至发稿跌0.38%，报5039.812美元/ 盎司；现货白银同样在大幅震荡，2月9日一度大涨8%站上83美元，截至发稿报82.338美元/盎司，跌 1.24%。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5039.812 -18.991 -0.38% 16.72% | | | 伦敦银现 | 82.338 -1.035 | -1.24% 15.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 5059.6d -19.8 | -0.39% 16.00% | | COMEX白银 | 81.595d -0.639 | -0.78% 14.95% | 消息面上，本周是美国重磅经济数据的窗口期，陆续会公布非农数据和CPI，市场预估美国即将发布疲 软的就业报告，从而提高美联储降息预期。美国白宫国家 ...

Group 1 - The long-term trend for gold remains solid, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, specifically the Cathay Gold ETF (518800), which saw a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan over four consecutive days, indicating strong demand for gold investments [1] - In the U.S. economic landscape, the ISM manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, indicating a return to the expansion zone, surpassing expectations of 48.5 and the previous value of 47.9 [1] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with the ADP employment change for January at 22,000, lower than the previous figure of 41,000 and the expected 48,000 [1] Group 2 - The ongoing increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China marks the 15th consecutive month of accumulation, with reserves reported at 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2,307.567 tons) as of the end of January, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) [1] - The backdrop of monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization challenges the U.S. dollar credit system, while global geopolitical instability drives the diversification of asset reserves, enhancing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization supports the outlook for gold prices, positioning gold as a potential new pricing anchor [2]

我问你个问题，你觉不觉得现在的美元越来越像个只会放空炮的土豪了。我今天翻看美联储最新的资产负债表，还有那每天都在跳动的美国债务时 钟，心里只有一种感觉，这美元潮汐的收割机，是不是生锈了。 我查了一下，根据美国财政部公布的数据，美国联邦债务总额在2025年2月初已经稳稳站在了36万亿美元这个关口。这可不是什么轻飘飘的数字， 这是在短短几个月内又蹦上来的新高度。我昨晚盯着那个数据卡了三秒，心想这后面得加多少个零。 但这一次，美国连续加息了这么久，加到了5.25%到5.5%的区间，结果大伙儿发现，诶，除了日元稍微跌得惨点，其他的好像也就那么回事。尤其 是咱们这边，制造业底子厚，直接把通胀压力给扛住了。 所以我也在想，美元的信用是不是已经到了一个临界点。当债务利息支出超过国防开支的时候，这个国家的信用还剩下多少。根据美国国会预算办 公室的预测，如果不加节制，2030年左右利息支出就会成为美国预算里最大的单一项目。到时候别说加息到5%，就是加到3%，美国那些脆弱的银 行系统可能都要跟着陪葬。2023年倒闭的那几家银行其实已经给出了预告，那只是利息稍微高了一点点的结果。 我昨天看到一组数据，说全球央行在2024年购买黄金 ...

点击 最 下方 关注《材料汇》 ， 点击"在看"和" "并分享 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 （请添加小编微信，后续会组建 相关微信群 ） 图：多数经济体通胀水平仍高于疫情前（2019/12） 图:当前主要经济体实际长期利率依然较高 & 调:同比 3 - 2. Real Long-Term Interest Rates ):所有类目不包括能源、食品、酒精与烟草(核心HICP):同比 (Percent, year over year) 0% 2 - - United States - Euro area - United Kingdom 不包括食品和能源(核心CPI):当月同比 Japan 1-3 5 -2 - 2015: 21: 17: 19: 23: 25: 01 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 4 赛每来源:Wind. INF、奥源证券研究 | (实际GDP增速) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | (实际GDP增速) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球产出 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market has returned to a volatile pattern following a rebound, influenced by the release of significant U.S. economic data, with gold and silver experiencing downward pressure due to cautious investor sentiment ahead of key readings [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has seen a daily decline of approximately 0.7%, falling to around $5022.19, while silver has dropped significantly by 2.1% to $80.930 [1][2] - The cautious sentiment in the market reflects a mix of risk-off buying and profit-taking, making it difficult for precious metals to maintain upward momentum [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The transparency of monetary policy remains a core variable influencing metal pricing, with recent market volatility attributed to crowded bullish positions and uncertainties surrounding potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [3][4] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a non-dovish candidate for the next Fed chair has previously led to a significant drop in gold prices from near $5600 [3] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Traders are focused on upcoming economic data, including retail sales, non-farm employment, and CPI, which will be critical in assessing labor market conditions and inflation trends [4] - Strong performance in these data points could reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially exerting further pressure on metal prices [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the US stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a high of approximately 50,219 points before fluctuating [9] - There is a growing concern regarding "de-dollarization," as Chinese regulatory authorities are guiding financial institutions to limit their holdings of US Treasury bonds, leading to a surge in gold prices [9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 4.6%, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [9] - Asset allocation strategies are suggested to focus on gold due to its appeal as a hedge against de-dollarization and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [9] - In the bond market, a strategy of shortening duration and focusing on high-quality short to medium-term bonds is recommended if the 10-year Treasury yield remains between 4.5% and 4.7% [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,027 points, gaining 467 points (1.8%), indicating a recovery above the 27,000 mark [12] - The report notes that Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds have dropped to an 11-year low, raising concerns about potential increases in US Treasury yields [12] - The People's Bank of China is expected to increase liquidity injections in the interbank market ahead of the Spring Festival, addressing a liquidity gap exceeding 3 trillion yuan [12] - Kuaishou faced a fine of nearly 120 million yuan due to issues related to inappropriate content, but analysts believe the impact on the company's operations will be manageable [12] - Alibaba's new AI model Qwen3.5 is expected to be open-sourced during the Spring Festival, indicating advancements in the company's AI capabilities [12] Company-Specific Analysis - China People's Insurance Group reported a 6.8% increase in insurance service revenue and a significant 28.9% rise in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting improved operational quality [21] - FIT HON TENG experienced approximately 12% year-on-year growth in revenue and operating income in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from high-growth sectors such as AI servers and cloud networking [21] - Zhaoyi Innovation announced a positive earnings forecast for 2025, projecting revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, driven by strong demand in memory and MCU sectors [21]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 过去一周，贵金属价格剧烈波动，获利回吐和过热仓位交织导致价格从历史高位回落。美联储领导层可 能更迭，引发美国货币政策不确定性，也加剧了市场波动。 然而，支撑多年上涨行情的诸多因素—— 地缘政治风险加剧、央行加大购入力度以及投资者抛售主权债券和货币——依然存在。 本周投资者密切关注美国非农就业数据、消费者价格和首次申请失业救济人数的公布，以寻找货币政策 的新信号。市场已经预期2026年至少会降息两次，每次降息25个基点。 包括德意志银行和高盛集团在内的许多银行和资产管理公司都看好黄金价格，认为其将因这些长期需求 驱动因素而复苏。为了凸显官方需求的强劲，中国央行在1月份将黄金购买计划延长至第15个月。富国 银行2月4日将年底目标价上调至每盎司6100美元至6300美元，此前摩根大通和瑞银分别将目标价设定为 每盎司6300美元和6200美元，均暗示金价有进一步上涨的空间。 为何机构依然坚定看多？ 1． 全球"去美元化"与央行持续购金：这是当前黄金市场最坚实、最稳定的需求来源。以中国央行为代 表，其连续15个月增持黄金储备的行动，为黄金市场提供了一个巨大的、结构性的需求底部，有效缓冲 了投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China has sparked significant global attention, indicating a shift in the financial landscape and raising discussions about the future of U.S. dollar dominance [1][20]. Group 1: China's Actions - China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries have decreased to $682.6 billion as of November 2025, marking the lowest level since September 2008 and reflecting a reduction exceeding $100 billion [3]. - The decline in China's U.S. Treasury holdings began in November 2021, with a total reduction of $1.732 trillion from 2022 to 2024, indicating a clear trend towards decreasing reliance on foreign exchange assets [5]. - China has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for nine consecutive months, with the pace and scale of the sell-off surpassing market expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Market Impact - As the third-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, China's continued sell-off has triggered a chain reaction in the global bond market, leading to increased pressure and volatility in U.S. Treasury yields [7]. - The iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Index ETF closed at $100.16, reflecting a 0.26% decline over three months, indicating waning confidence in U.S. Treasuries [8]. - The trading activity in U.S. Treasuries has intensified, with fluctuations in prices and increased turnover rates, suggesting a battle between selling pressure and bottom-fishing capital [10]. Group 3: Reasons Behind the Reduction - China's strategy to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings is driven by the need to mitigate potential risks in the U.S. bond market and to diversify its foreign exchange reserves for greater security and stability [12]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, exceeding 120% of GDP, which raises concerns about credit risk associated with U.S. Treasuries [13]. - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that net interest payments will rise from 3.2% to 5.4% of GDP over the next 30 years, indicating increasing volatility in Treasury yields and potential valuation losses for holders [15]. Group 4: Asset Diversification - Alongside the reduction in U.S. Treasuries, China has been increasing its gold reserves, with a total of 74.19 million ounces as of January 2026, representing a significant diversification strategy [17]. - The increase in gold reserves has been ongoing for 15 months, with 26 tons added in 2025, now accounting for over 9% of China's foreign exchange reserves [18]. - Gold serves as a hard asset with no credit risk, effectively complementing U.S. Treasuries and enhancing the resilience of China's foreign exchange reserves [20]. Group 5: Global Trends - China's actions reflect a broader global trend of "de-dollarization," as countries adjust their foreign exchange asset allocations in response to the weakening credit of the U.S. dollar [20]. - The share of U.S. dollars in global central bank reserves has fallen to a historical low of 57%, with many countries accumulating gold to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets [22]. - Since early 2025, the U.S. dollar has depreciated by approximately 10%, indicating a period of uncertainty for its global dominance [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The future of the U.S. Treasury market is under scrutiny, with concerns that further debt financing may lead to increased money printing by the Federal Reserve, exacerbating inflation and diminishing the appeal of U.S. Treasuries [27]. - While China's reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is significant, it represents only about 4% of the total foreign-held U.S. debt, suggesting limited immediate impact on the market [29]. - The ongoing reduction signals a shift in global reliance on dollar assets, indicating a gradual erosion of U.S. dollar hegemony and a move towards a multipolar financial landscape [29].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has rebounded significantly, returning to the critical level of $5000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, weak U.S. employment data, and continued central bank gold purchases [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Last week, gold prices experienced a strong rebound after a period of decline, with a maximum daily increase exceeding 5% [2]. - The rebound was supported by three main factors: escalating tensions in the Middle East, renewed expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks [2]. - The market is entering a critical data-driven period with upcoming U.S. inflation and retail sales data, which will influence gold price movements [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. January CPI data is crucial this week; lower-than-expected figures could strengthen market expectations for monetary easing, potentially pushing gold prices above $5050 [3]. - Conversely, if the CPI data exceeds expectations, it may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts, leading to upward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which could test the $4900 support level for gold [3]. - Additional economic indicators, such as retail sales and unemployment claims, will further assess the resilience of the U.S. economy, impacting gold prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The mid-term outlook for gold remains positive, with record net inflows into global gold ETFs and sustained high levels of central bank gold purchases [3]. - The ongoing de-dollarization process in emerging markets is expected to optimize foreign exchange reserve structures, providing long-term support for gold prices [3]. - Short-term profit-taking and increased margin requirements by domestic exchanges may temper speculative market sentiment, leading to a more stable trading environment [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold has stabilized above the $5000 level, with short-term moving averages indicating an upward trend [4]. - The MACD indicator shows bullish momentum, while the RSI remains neutral, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4]. - Key support levels are at $4900 and $4850, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5100, with $5000 being a critical battleground for market sentiment this week [4].

最近，彭博社放出了一则关键消息，说中国现在持有的美国国债创18年来最低，已经降到了2008年以来 的最低水平，具体数值跌到了7590亿美元左右。不仅如此，还说有内部消息透露，中国国家层面已经明 确要求，各家银行还要继续抛售美国国债，不恋战、不犹豫，抛得越多、越及时越好。而抛售美债换来 的资金，没有闲置，全部用来购买黄金，开启"抛美债、囤黄金"的模式。 大家可以看看最新的黄金价格，截至2月10号，伦敦金现货价格已经突破了5040美元每盎司的关口，国 内金店的黄金价格，都涨到了1560元每克左右，涨幅特别明显。 这背后，就是中国持续增持黄金的推动，咱们国家连续13个月一直在增持黄金，就是要通过这种方式， 对冲美债带来的风险，保住咱们的外汇资产安全。 可能有人会问，中国为啥要拼尽全力抛售美债？答案很简单，因为美国的债务问题，已经严重到快要失 控的地步了，而这一点，就有人发出过警告。 前几天，全球知名投资大佬达利欧，在自己的社交账号上发文，发出了一个重磅警告。他说，美国现在 正处于"债务大周期"中，而且已经走到了"现有秩序崩溃"的第六阶段边缘，再往前一步，就是万劫不 复。 这个第六阶段是什么意思呢？达利欧认为，一个国 ...