来源：泽平宏观展望 2025年7月去日本游学，去之前重读野口悠纪雄《失去的三十年》，大前研一《低欲望社会》，辜朝明 《资产负债表衰退》，以及达里奥新作《债务大周期》。 结合学者经典著作和实地调研，基本印象：90年大泡沫破裂以后，日本整个社会巨变，长期通缩，资产 负债表衰退，人口老龄化少子化，从原来信心满满的"日本第一"到压抑的低欲望社会，不结婚，不生孩 子，不交友，不买房，不买车，不消费，不创业，对未来没有安全感，孤独，储蓄，寻求稳定的工作和 理财。 日本落入失去的三十年和低欲望社会，按照达利欧的债务大周期理论和辜朝明的资产负债表衰退理论， 不应该由居民和企业部门独自化解房地产大泡沫破裂以后的债务，而应该通过财政政策扩张和债务货币 化实现温和通胀的和谐去杠杆，扩张中央政府和央行的资产负债表，减轻居民和企业的债务压力，从而 恢复消费和投资的能力与动力。 可对比的是美国在2008年次贷危机和2020-2022年疫情期间，扩张美国联邦政府财政和美联储资产负债 表，来化解市场主体的债务压力，居民和企业资产负债表得以恢复，所以现在美国居民消费旺盛，企业 投资积极，股市连创新高多年牛市，同时，美国联邦政府债务规模空前，美 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the dramatic phenomenon of national bankruptcy, emphasizing that it is not an isolated event but rather a result of cumulative factors over a period of 10 to 20 years [2][27]. Group 1: Reasons for National Bankruptcy - The first reason is the long-term accumulation of debt exceeding economic growth capacity, often occurring during prosperous times when confidence leads to increased borrowing [3][5]. - The second reason is the private sector experiencing defaults first, forcing the government to step in and ultimately dragging the nation down [12][15]. - The third reason is the loss of confidence in the debt market, leading to a sudden spike in interest rates that makes borrowing unaffordable [16][18]. - The fourth reason is the depletion of foreign reserves combined with a currency crisis, which can rapidly escalate from financial to economic crises [19][22]. - The fifth reason is the central bank being forced to print money excessively, leading to a collapse in currency credibility [23][26]. Group 2: Key Factors in Avoiding Bankruptcy - The first key factor is maintaining fiscal discipline to ensure that debt growth is lower than economic growth, exemplified by Singapore's approach of consistently running budget surpluses [34][37]. - The second key factor is maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves to ensure that short-term debt never exceeds reserves, as demonstrated by South Korea's post-crisis strategy [38][40]. - The third key factor is ensuring the independence of the central bank to prevent short-term political pressures from influencing monetary policy, as illustrated by the U.S. experience in the 1980s [41]. Group 3: Conclusion - Understanding the cyclical nature of national bankruptcy is crucial for grasping the essence of economic operations, with successful nations often maintaining vigilance and structural safety principles during prosperous times [42].