在这一背景下，美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福克德于6月2日表示，特朗普政府在贸易谈判方面已经取得"非常好的进展"，并称"部分贸易协议即将达成"，他 认为，只要继续取得进展，更多协议有望在7月9日之前宣布。 4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布实施"对等关税"政策，短短一周后的4月9日，他却突然决定为部分国家的"对等关税"设定90天的暂缓期。在这段暂缓期内，关 税将降至10%，同时特朗普政府与多个国家开始进行贸易谈判，旨在达成新一轮的贸易协议。然而，90天的暂缓期所剩时间不多，目前谈判进展较慢，除了 与英国签订了贸易协议，并与中国达成了一些重要共识外，其他国家的谈判几乎停滞不前。 如今，随着90天的暂缓期即将到期，特朗普政府显得十分急迫。特朗普在近期表示，一旦暂缓期结束，他不打算再延长，而是恢复高额的"对等关税"。不 过，特朗普的关税政策一向反复无常，谁也无法预料到最终会发生什么变化，甚至他自己可能也没有确切的答案。 不仅如此，特朗普的关税政策还面临法律挑战。过去两周，特朗普政府先后遭遇了两次与关税相关的法律挑战，均涉及特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力 法》(IEEPA)加征关税的越权问题。5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定 ...

本期受邀嘉宾是： 贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇 长城证券首席经济学家汪毅 【编者按】中国基金报每月初会邀请中外资金融机构的代表，分享他们对全球经济及重大事件的分析与评判。希望他们观点的碰撞，能对大家有所启发。 渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰 南方东英量化投资部主管王毅 "AI+新消费" 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室宏观策略师李慧琪 点燃外资投资中国兴趣 中国基金报：当前投资者应如何调整中国市场的投资策略？ 王昕杰：我们增加了中国资产的比例。我们的基础场景是，随着"美国例外论"收敛，之前受到美元虹吸影响的资产，将得到重估的机会，首当其冲的是中 国资产。 港股方面，短期仍以国企高派息的板块作为防御，同时坚持逢低布局以科技为主的成长板块。 A股方面，重点关注农林牧渔、食品饮料和消费电子等消费子板块。 王毅：目前，A股方面我们比较看好的是芯片硬科技相关的行业，港股方面是科技以及新消费。 随着DeepSeek的出现，投资者对中国科技在AI产业上的后发优势非常感兴趣。全球范围内，对于美国资产的担忧也引发了投资人对于第二选择的讨论和 实践。一些表现十分亮眼的新消费公司的出现，也点燃了境外投资人对于中国市场的兴趣。 李慧 ...

贵金属日报:关税担忧及地缘升级重新推升避险需求 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月3日 【行情回顾】 上周COMEX贵金属整体震荡微跌，但周一强势上涨。具体看，利空面，周一特朗普将欧盟50%关税威 胁的最后期限从6月1日推迟到7月9日，这一决定源于欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的主动致电请求，该消息 略微改善市场风险偏好，贵金属略承压； 周二美国股债汇齐升反映对美国财政担忧缓解，风险偏好改 善，资金重新回流美国市场，美消费者信心指数亦超预期；周三美债5Y拍卖良好，且美联储会议纪要继 续传递谨慎降息态度；周四亚盘早盘时段，贵金属市场一度快速回落，受美国法院叫停特朗普"解放 日"贸易政策这一消息影响。利多面，周四贵金属很快收复跌幅，因美国上诉法院迅速恢复了关税，叠加 特朗普邀请会见鲍威尔，亦引发美联储"独立性担忧"；周五晚间特朗普发文称中国违反与美国协议，关 税冲突担忧重新升温；周六早晨，白宫宣布自这周起，美国钢铁和铝进口关税从25%翻番至50%，这亦促 使欧盟委员会警告称欧洲准备报复，进一步加剧关税担忧，且俄乌冲突有所升级。 【资金与库存】 长线基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has evolved from initial trust to public conflict, highlighting the tension between political influence and central bank independence [1][5]. Group 1: Initial Expectations - Trump initially appointed Powell with high hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and achieve his vision of "Make America Great Again" [1]. - Powell was seen as a key figure capable of maintaining good communication with the White House and promoting economic prosperity during their initial "honeymoon" period [1]. Group 2: Rising Tensions - The honeymoon phase ended as the U.S. economy recovered, leading the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates multiple times in 2018 to combat inflation, which triggered Trump's dissatisfaction [2]. - Trump publicly criticized the Fed's rate hikes, labeling them as "crazy" and claiming they were harming the U.S. economy [2][3]. Group 3: Continued Conflict - Trump's discontent with the Fed's policies led him to break the long-standing tradition of the White House refraining from commenting on monetary policy, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [3]. - During a recent meeting, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that current rates put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage against countries like China [4]. Group 4: Fed's Response and Independence - Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to independence, stating that monetary policy decisions would be based on economic data rather than political pressure [5]. - Following the meeting, the Fed emphasized its independence and data-driven decision-making principles to maintain its credibility as an independent central bank [5]. - U.S. law protects the Fed's independence, preventing the President from arbitrarily dismissing the Fed Chair, a principle reinforced by a 2025 Supreme Court ruling [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The evolving relationship between Trump and Powell illustrates the inherent tension between political power and central bank independence, significantly impacting U.S. economic policy [5]. - The situation raises important discussions about central bank independence, providing valuable insights for global central banks [6].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy, which he believes is detrimental to the U.S. economy's competitiveness [1][3][4]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Trump and Powell met at the White House on May 29, marking their first discussion since Trump resumed office [1]. - During the meeting, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed's decision not to lower interest rates is a significant mistake [3]. - The discussion included topics such as economic growth, employment, and inflation, but Powell did not address future monetary policy directions [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - Trump has consistently criticized the Fed's current interest rate policy, arguing that it places the U.S. at a disadvantage in global competition, particularly against China [4]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its May 7 meeting, indicating a potential continuation of this rate in the coming months [6]. - The FOMC's May meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook due to tariffs and policy instability, with rising unemployment and inflation risks [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [8]. - The market's reliance on the Fed's independence is significant, as political interference could lead to instability in financial markets [8].

美联储表示，鲍威尔在会面中没有讨论对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于未来的经济 数据以及这些数据对经济前景的影响。鲍威尔强调，他本人及联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同事将 根据法律规定，制定旨在支持最大就业和物价稳定的货币政策，并且 所有决策都将基于仔细、客观、 非政治化的分析。 白宫方面表示，特朗普在与鲍威尔自其就任总统以来的首次面对面会晤中，敦促鲍威尔降低利率。白宫 新闻秘书莱维特周四在简报会上表示， 特朗普对鲍威尔表示，他认为美联储主席未能降息是一个错误 的决策。 莱维特表示，这一决定让我们在经济上处于相对于其他国家的劣势，总统对此一直非常直言不讳，不论 是公开场合还是——现在我可以透露——私下场合也是如此。两人并未讨论特朗普是否会寻求罢免鲍威 尔的问题。 从美联储发布的通稿来看，面对特朗普降息的呼声，鲍威尔依然选择了坚守美联储的独立性。 美东时间周四，美股主要股指高开低走小幅收涨，截止收盘，道指涨0.28%，纳指涨0.39%，标普500指 数涨0.4%，大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉涨幅不足1%，英伟达涨超3%，博通涨超 1%。半导体板块涨幅居前，美国像素涨超6%，微芯科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes that it is not the first time the U.S. government has requested adjustments to monetary policy, highlighting the Fed's accountability to the American public [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is underscored, indicating that it operates with a focus on the broader economic implications rather than direct governmental influence [1] - Daly's statement reflects the ongoing dialogue between the government and the Federal Reserve regarding economic policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining stable inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized as a key factor in stabilizing inflation expectations [1]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 16 May 2025 | 1:53PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: A significant tariff reprieve, Fed independence concerns, US household balance sheet health This week: Transcript Tariffs: a significant reprieve The US-China trade deal announced this week represented a more significant de-escalation in trade tensions than widely expected, which led us to revise our macro and market forecasts across the board. In the US, we raised our growth forecast for this year to 1.0% (from 0 ...

我写《美债又崩了》，有粉丝质疑，美联储不是美国的吗？为什么要拆自己的台？ 问这种问题的人，真的是天真的可爱。 你不妨往自己身边看看，好多人一家子两夫妻，处得跟仇人一样，为了财产或者别的，勉强凑一块，心 底里各种算计，恨不得把对方弄死的多了去了。你别问，一问户口本上一家人，真要是谁死了，剩下的 那个，就占大便宜了。 所以懂王跟美联储之间彼此不对付有那么难理解吗？ 这世界上什么都可以让，唯有利益是不能让的。 懂王独享欲非常强，当了两届总统，你啥时候见他有过什么亲密的政治盟友？谁跟他关系好，都只能是 用得上的那一阵子，但凡用不上了，即便像马老板这样，出钱出力把他送上总统宝座，那也是随时能欢 送出白宫的。 从懂王的第一任期开始，建制派们就已经想好了要联手限制总统的权力。 当然了，这也不是建制派们跟懂王有什么深仇大恨，纯粹是美国的政治传统。 我们以前经常听公知们说，要把权力关进笼子里。 后来我们慢慢发现，权力世袭真的很难，但财富世袭却是容易的。把权力关进笼子里限制起来，然后让 财富自由，这不就相当于让财富控制了权力，然后世袭罔替仙福永享了吗？ 以前总有人说，谁当美国总统都是一样的，就是让个动物当总统，美国照样运转。 这 ...