Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler on August 8 allows President Trump to appoint a successor sooner than anticipated, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's operations more deeply [1][3]. Group 1: Resignation and Implications - Kugler's term was originally set to end on January 31, and her resignation was announced without a specified reason, although she expressed honor in serving during a critical time for inflation and labor market resilience [1][3]. - Trump's comments suggest that Kugler's resignation may be linked to disagreements with Fed Chair Powell on interest rates, although this claim lacks strong logical support given Kugler's historically hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 2: Future Appointments and Strategy - The vacancy left by Kugler presents an opportunity for Trump to reshape the Federal Reserve, as he is currently seeking candidates to succeed Powell when his term ends in May [3][4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has outlined a strategy where a new appointee fills Kugler's position and could later compete for the chairmanship, with expectations that Powell may leave the board entirely after his term [3][4]. Group 3: Internal Dynamics and Market Reactions - The current Fed board includes two dovish members, and if Trump appoints another dovish candidate to replace Kugler, the balance of the board could shift to a more evenly divided hawkish-dovish stance [5]. - Recent labor market data showing weaker-than-expected job growth has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with market expectations rising from under 40% to 80% [4][6].

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, significantly exceeding market expectations of 76,000, marking the largest month-over-month increase since April [1][3] - Despite the positive July data, overall hiring remains below last year's average, highlighting an uneven recovery in the U.S. labor market [3][5] - The report reflects cautious attitudes among businesses amid economic uncertainty, with mixed signals regarding the strength of the labor market [5][6] Employment Data - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the most significant job growth, adding 46,000 positions, followed by the financial sector with an increase of 28,000 jobs [3] - Conversely, the education and healthcare services sector experienced job losses for the fourth consecutive month, shedding 38,000 positions [3][5] - The manufacturing sector added only 7,000 jobs, while construction grew by 15,000, indicating varied recovery rates across different industries [5] Wage Growth - Wage growth remained stable in July, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 7% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [3] - This trend suggests that despite a slowdown in hiring, competition in the labor market is still supporting wage levels [3] Economic Outlook - Economists express that the labor market's performance reflects businesses' cautiousness in the face of economic uncertainty, with July's rebound not fully alleviating concerns about potential economic slowdown [5][6] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show an increase of about 100,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.2% [5] - The strong ADP report may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term, as sustained wage growth above inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance [6]

宏观金银月报 国内政策定调，海外关税落地，8月份回归基本面 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月1日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场和海外宏观】本月资本市场受中国反内卷定调及抑制投机需求等情绪影响，工业 品大幅冲高后回落。美国通胀预期较高，其他国家通胀表现分化，就业市场温和，但消费 者信心走高。关税基本落地，整体好于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内经济数据比较分化，工业数据尚可但是投资增速放缓，房地产 没有止跌制造业PMI回落。信贷需求宽松，社融托底力量来自政府专项债。政策短反内卷和 消费刺激齐头并进，不过月底大会为反内卷降温，后续关注政策连续性。 【金银策略】黄金短期受避险退潮冲击，白银受黄金、基本金属影响较大。长期来看， 央行购金、美元信用弱化及通胀风险仍构成战略配置价值。黄金价格调整，短期关注760附 近支撑，短期白银跌回前期震荡调整区间8700-9000，长线多头趋势上没有破坏，关注止跌 企稳之后再多单介入。 【风险提示】关税进程波折，美联储不降息（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 国内资产价格演绎"反内卷" 2 各国通胀分化，指标喜忧参 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - Trump's copper import tariff policy changed unexpectedly, causing COMEX copper to plummet by over 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance weakened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded. The Politburo meeting did not meet the market's expectations of strong stimulus policies. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI declined, and market sentiment turned cautious. Fundamentally, there is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. During the off - season of demand, inventories at home and abroad have increased, dragging down copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling to test the support of the lower moving average. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is still optimistic as an important strategic metal in the Sino - US game. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6][58]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Situation US Policy and Dollar Index - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but excluded core upstream products such as electrolytic copper and copper concentrate. COMEX copper plummeted by 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance after the July interest rate meeting completely dispelled the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The probability of a September interest rate cut dropped from 65% to 45%. The US dollar index rebounded to 100, with a monthly increase of 3.5%, putting pressure on copper prices [8][11]. China's Economic Data - The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and the market's expectations were dashed. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4. The LPR for 1 - year and 5 - year loans remained unchanged, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut policy restricted China's monetary policy space. Market risk appetite declined [14]. Group 3: Shanghai Copper Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - In 2025, global copper mines faced continuous disruptions, and copper smelting capacity expanded, leading to a shortage of copper raw materials and record - low copper processing fees. In June, China imported 2349700 tons of copper concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 1.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June, the cumulative import of copper concentrate was 14.777 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.23%. The sample smelting start - up rate of the electrolytic copper industry in July was 88.19%, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. It is estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase by 15500 tons month - on - month and 122200 tons year - on - year [31][35]. Demand Side - From January to June, power grid engineering investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. New energy vehicle production was 6.872 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. However, from July to August, affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption, and the start - up rate of downstream copper products declined. In June, the start - up rate of copper product enterprises was 63.08%, and the copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [38]. Inventory - During the off - season of demand, overseas inventories increased. COMEX copper inventory increased by 45776 tons to 257900 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 46950 tons to 138200 tons. As of July 31, China's electrolytic copper social inventory was 119300 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons from the beginning of the month, and the SHFE copper inventory was 73423 tons, a decrease of 11166 tons from the beginning of the month [45]. Group 4: Monthly Summary and Outlook Market Situation - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, the US dollar index rebounded, and the US copper import tariff policy deviated from market expectations. Domestically, the Politburo meeting did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and market risk appetite declined. Fundamentally, in the short term, the contradiction in copper supply and demand lies in inventory accumulation during the off - season and inventory return pressure. In the medium term, it is the co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In the long term, it is the uncertainty of demand caused by global trade wars and Sino - US confrontation versus the explosive demand for copper in green power and new energy vehicles [57]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [58].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the current economic situation in the U.S., acknowledging a slowdown in overall economic activity while noting a stable job market and low unemployment rates [3] - High inflation remains a significant concern, preventing the Fed from lowering interest rates despite weakening growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5] - The differing opinions among Fed members highlight concerns about high inflation versus the potential negative impacts of economic downturns and tariff policies on the U.S. economy [6] - The dissenting votes from two members, both nominated by former President Trump, suggest potential political influences on the Fed's independence and decision-making process [6]

周五（8月1日）欧盘时段，黄金期货向上冲高，沪金主力重返770元关口，美国对多国加征10-41%关税 引发的贸易紧张局势，为金价提供避险支撑。北京时间周五20:30，美国将于周五公布7月非农就业报 告，黄金大行情箭在弦上！ 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 【技术分析】 基本面上，虽然美联储7月会议保持利率不变，鲍威尔也表示继续观望，打压金价走低，但美联储理事 沃勒、鲍曼投下反对票并主张降息，特朗普也再度呼吁降息，年内也仍存降息概率，只是时间早晚的问 题。 昨夜公布的美国经济与通胀数据具备韧性，黄金价格持续承压。美联储货币政策表态转鹰派，金价短期 将面临较强回调压力，但基于后续就业数据以及关键票委表态所具备的不确定性，暂时观望，沪金主力 合约参考运行区间760-794元/克，今日沪金主力上方阻力关注775-780，下方支撑看750-760。 所以，鲍威尔对于降息泼冷水产生的利空压力，也只是一时的打压。金价下跌之后，也仍是入场看涨机 会。 另外，美国贸易协定8月1日即将到期，并再度对各国开启加征关税政策，即便是欧美及中美等达成协 议，鉴于目前已有所消化，全球贸易也依然处于高关税的政策环境中，而会增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with new jobs anticipated to drop to 110,000 from 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - Analysts believe that despite signs of cooling in the labor market, this is not sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to immediately lower interest rates, especially given the inflationary pressures from new tariff policies [3] - The market has shifted expectations for a rate cut from September to October, with some analysts warning that the window for the Fed to implement easing policies is narrowing due to rising prices from tariffs [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis of gold indicates that the market is showing signs of weakening bullish momentum, with the 5-month moving average moving up to 3293, suggesting that short-term support is weakening [4] - The price of gold is currently in a wide trading range between 3452 and 3246, with a potential downward movement towards the 10-month moving average around 3050 as tariffs take effect and safe-haven demand decreases [4] - The focus for gold prices this week is on the mid-band level of 3275; a close below this level could open further downside potential, while a close above it would suggest continued wide fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, signaling that interest rate cuts are not imminent and the policy remains in a vigilant "wait-and-see" mode [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Statement and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent slowdown in inflation data, which is seen as a preliminary recognition of potential easing inflation pressures, but emphasized that more positive evidence is needed to confirm a return to the 2% inflation target [3]. - Chairman Powell stated that it is not yet time to consider rate cuts, indicating that such decisions require "more time" and "more conclusive data" [3][5]. - The Fed noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, with inflation still too high [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the US dollar index rose by 0.55%, reflecting its safe-haven appeal, while the US 10-year Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, leading to a significant increase in yields [4]. - Market speculation regarding the timing of the Fed's first rate cut has shifted towards December, indicating that the current high-interest-rate environment will persist for a considerable time, affecting corporate financing costs and consumer credit [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Powell highlighted the impact of trade policies, noting that higher tariff rates are beginning to affect the prices of certain goods, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation requires further observation [5].

来源：第一财经 近期，美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并批评美联储"缺乏行动勇气"。30 日早些时候，特朗普再次喊话美联储应该降息，表示维持高利率正在伤害民众。 2025.08.01 据央视新闻，当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普评价鲍威尔，称他是一位糟糕的美联储主席，任命鲍威尔担任美 联储主席是一个错误。 美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间 不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 本文字数：368，阅读时长大约1分钟 ...

Group 1 - The resilient U.S. labor market is now the primary determinant of monetary policy, indicating that strong employment data in July could eliminate expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year [1] - Powell emphasized that the next steps for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will depend on overall economic data, acknowledging reasons for easing but highlighting the importance of the unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate has remained stable between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year, suggesting the economy is at full employment, making it difficult to justify a rate cut [2] Group 2 - Following the FOMC decision, market reactions included a drop in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a strengthening dollar, reflecting investors' interpretation of Powell's signals [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now seen as a coin toss, indicating a shift in market expectations towards only one rate cut this year [2] - Powell's comments on inflation, with core CPI at 2.9% and core PCE at 2.8%, support a moderate tightening stance [2] Group 3 - Price risks remain due to the delayed effects of tariffs, with Powell suggesting that if tariffs continue to push prices higher, the Fed may need to wait until the impact subsides before easing, potentially delaying any rate cuts until next year [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly decreased, with projections dropping from over 130 basis points to around 35 basis points for the year [3][4] Group 4 - The futures curve indicates that by May next year, when Powell's term ends, only 65 basis points of rate cuts are priced in [4] - While it is unlikely that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's remaining term, it is not impossible [5]