1月26日，金银价格继续飙升，录得新高。截至北京时间17:00，伦敦现货黄金价格最高升至5110.25美元 ／盎司，伦敦现货白银价格最高触及110.06美元／盎司。受委内瑞拉、伊朗及格陵兰岛局势的扰动，市 场避险情绪升温，将金银价格推至新高。1月27日至28日，年内首场美联储议息会议将召开。美联储大 概率"按兵不动"，"何时具备降息条件"成为市场的关注焦点。 混沌天成期货宏观分析师周蜜儿向记者表示，近期金价上扬可归因于地缘局势变动、美元指数下跌以及 美债抛售预期。她认为，当前市场定价逻辑主要涵盖三个层面：一是委内瑞拉、伊朗及格陵兰岛等地缘 争端，二是美联储新任主席人选的预期，三是美国总统特朗普对欧洲的关税威胁。在这些不确定因素的 作用下，长期货币信用逻辑不断深化，机构对黄金的配置需求预期提升，引发了新一轮上涨行情。 值得注意的是，近期美元指数持续回落，1月26日盘中最低录得96.92点。金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰 认为，美元指数回落的原因有两方面： 一方面，与风险事件下"美国例外论"的暂时降温有关。本次地缘不确定性上升时，市场资金并未像以往 一样单向涌入美元资产，反而部分转向黄金、瑞士法郎等替代性避险资产，削 ...

市场预期，降息或将推迟至5月鲍威尔任期结束后由其继任者推动。 当地时间1月27日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 自去年9月起，美联储连续三次议息会议采取降息，累计降息75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.50%-3.75% 的区间。虽然，重启降息周期源于美国就业市场招聘放缓，然而一系列降息决策的出台过程颇具争议 ——部分美联储官员明确反对降息，而理事米兰则主张以更快的节奏下调利率，两派意见的分歧多次公 开显现。 第一财经记者汇总发现，上一次会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势均无明显变化， 就业增长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业率回落至4.4%。美联储锚定2% 通胀目标所参考的个人消费支出价格指数PCE去年11月录得 2.8%，略高于市场预期。 尽管当前 "不招聘、不裁员"的状态远非经济复苏的强劲信号，但受政府停摆等因素影响，通胀相关数 据杂音较多，几乎无法为何时重启降息提供指引。因此美联储仍有时间进一步厘清通胀的真实走势。 因此，在鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，其有关未来政策路径的言论将受到重点关注。值得一提的是，其发言 的重点除了货币政策讨论，独立性的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant surge in precious metal prices, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, driven by global financial capital dynamics and geopolitical factors, leading to a bullish outlook for related A-share and futures markets [3][6][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 26, gold prices in London surpassed $5100 per ounce, while silver prices exceeded $100 per ounce, marking a historic high [3][6]. - The A-share market saw the precious metals sector lead with a 7.3% increase, while basic metals rose by 2.73% [3][4]. - Individual stocks in the gold and rare metals sectors experienced significant gains, with several reaching their daily limit [5][6]. Group 2: Price Drivers - Analysts attribute the price surge to a combination of short-term geopolitical risks, medium-term policy expectations, and long-term structural weaknesses in the dollar credit system [6][14]. - The strong performance of platinum and palladium is linked to the overall capital flow into precious metals, as investors seek to capitalize on rising prices [7][14]. Group 3: Company Performance - In 2025, international gold prices rose over 60%, and silver prices increased by more than 140%, positively impacting the earnings of many listed companies [8][9]. - Companies like Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold reported significant profit increases due to rising metal prices, with Zhaojin expecting a profit turnaround from a previous loss [8][9]. - Other companies, such as Xianglu Tungsten and Zijin Mining, also forecast substantial profit growth driven by higher metal prices and improved operational efficiencies [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for precious metals, with expectations that gold prices could challenge the $6000 per ounce mark in 2026 [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of cautious investment strategies in the current high-volatility environment, recommending a combination of dollar-cost averaging and careful risk management [14].

值得一提的是，美联储议息会议将于北京时间1月30日凌晨3点公布1月利率决议。多位受访专家分析认 为，本轮金价上涨的核心驱动，来自全球不确定性上升背景下的避险需求集中释放。短期来看，美联储 货币政策对黄金的影响有限。 星展中国高级投资策略师邓志坚表示，继续看好黄金。一是需要关注欧洲机构的资产配置策略变化，欧 洲正在对美国资产进行策略性、非短期的调整，美国国债规模过大、泡沫早已形成，机构控制仓位属理 性选择。二是关注美联储政策路径的不确定性，若未来仍然维持减息取向，投资者将继续增持避险资 产，黄金配置需求有望持续上升。 避险情绪集中释放推升金价 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 1月26日，现货黄金盘中一度站上5100美元/盎司，创历史新高。与此同时，多家机构上调黄金预期。 在市场高度关注的美联储议息会议方面，专家普遍认为，短期内美联储货币政策对黄金的支撑有限，但 中长期逻辑依然偏多。 郑弘指出，短期来看，美联储议息会议对黄金的影响可能偏下行。由于此前2025年12月通胀和就业数据 整体表现较为温和，市场对2026年1月会议降息的预期已降至不足5%，大概率不会降息。同时，在2025 年第四季度连续三次降息之 ...

Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the president's tariff authority remains pending, with a 70% probability that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could be overturned by the end of 2025 [3] - Current tariffs are causing U.S. importers to incur losses exceeding $16 billion monthly, and if ruled against, the U.S. Treasury may need to refund tariff revenues [3][4] - Analysts suggest that even if tariffs are deemed illegal, the U.S. government is likely to implement new tariffs through alternative legal means, maintaining a high level of uncertainty in the market [5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar and a cautious stance on U.S. equities, with expectations of reduced capital inflows into the stock market [4][5] - The anticipated appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairperson sensitive to Trump's monetary policy views could further weaken the dollar and support gold prices [6][7] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current monetary policy, with potential for two rate cuts this year, driven by economic indicators suggesting a need for a gradual adjustment to neutral policy [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with significant price movements observed recently. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of January 26, the spot silver price is trading at $109.61 per ounce, having opened at $104.32 and reaching a high of $110.06 and a low of $103.26 during the day [1][2] - The recent upward trend in silver prices is marked by breaking key resistance levels, including $96.00 and $100.00, indicating bullish momentum [5] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as domestic unrest in the U.S. due to recent law enforcement actions, are contributing to the volatility in the silver market [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 29 is expected to maintain interest rates, but future statements from Fed officials may influence market expectations [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for precious metals remain bullish, driven by healthy demand for reserves and a trend among market participants to diversify and reduce exposure to the dollar [4] - The MACD indicator shows bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 83.57, indicating overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a price correction but overall strong upward trend remains [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, the London gold price broke through the $5000 per ounce mark, with other precious metals also rising significantly. The fundamentals supporting the precious metals sector are solid, and long, medium, and short - term technical indicators all point to an upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view on precious metals trading. However, due to the short - term sharp rise and large inflows of investment funds, there are risks of short - term adjustments, so investors are advised to reduce positions, go long with a light position, and maintain high flexibility [5][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - As of 9:10 am Beijing time on January 26, London gold was reported at $5048 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 17% and a cumulative increase of 143% since the mid - term upward trend started in March 2024. London silver was reported at $107 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 50%. Platinum and palladium had year - to - date increases of 38% and 28% respectively [5] 3.2 Long - term Factors - The changing global landscape and Sino - US competition have increased geopolitical risks, impacting the global political, economic, trade, and monetary systems. The resulting safe - haven demand and the need for reserve diversification have continuously pushed up the fluctuation center of gold prices. Trump 2.0's policies have further accelerated the restructuring of the global system, consolidating the long - term bull market for gold [5] 3.3 Medium - term Factors - Trump's radical reform measures have suppressed economic growth momentum in the US and globally. Weak economic growth requires more economic stimulus measures, leading to loose central bank policies and liquidity premiums, making gold prices strong in the medium term [5] 3.4 Short - term Factors - **Re - evaluation of strategic value**: In November 2025, the USGS added 10 minerals to the "2025 Critical Minerals List", including industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium. There is also a risk that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on the import of these metals [8] - **Increased geopolitical risks**: In 2026, Trump 2.0's new policies will shift the focus to the military field, significantly increasing geopolitical risks and adding safe - haven demand for the precious metals sector [9] - **Economic outlook and policy expectations**: The international trade situation has eased, and the Fed has restarted the interest - rate cut process. The economic growth prospects in the US and globally are expected to improve in 2026, boosting the industrial demand expectations for industrial precious metals but weakening the safe - haven demand for gold. However, Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has added market expectations of further rate cuts and liquidity premiums to the precious metals sector [10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged this week, shifting market focus from "whether to cut rates" to "when and how to cut rates" [2] - Market expectations for rapid rate cuts have cooled significantly due to inflation returning slower than anticipated, leading to increased divergence in policy outlooks [2] - The consensus among economists suggests that the Fed may initiate rate cuts as early as July, but the conditions for a policy shift have become more stringent [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. economy has shown resilience since the end of the government shutdown last fall, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% in December, although economists remain cautious about the policy outlook [3] - Inflation pressures have not effectively eased, and stagnant growth in household income limits the Fed's policy space [4] - There is a growing divide within the Fed, with some officials advocating for moderate easing due to concerns over hiring, while others emphasize the risks of high inflation and prefer a cautious approach [5] Group 3 - Market expectations indicate that inflation may improve in the second half of the year, but a short-term rise is still possible, which could further constrain policy shifts [5] - The new Fed chair's policy direction is under scrutiny, with concerns that aggressive rate cuts could lead to adjustments in the bond market and increase long-term rates, potentially destabilizing the economy [5] - The Fed currently has no urgent need for policy adjustments, and while this week's statement may lean hawkish, there is potential for three rate cuts later in the year if inflation cools [5]

尽管特朗普政府对美联储施压要求降息，但市场普遍认为本周FOMC会议将平淡无奇。投资者的注意力 已从单一的货币政策转向更为广泛的盈利增长和经济韧性，预示着美股市场结构正在发生深刻变化。 摘要今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1141.45元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报 1138.93元/克，涨幅3.08%，最高触及1141.45元/克，最低下探1100.25元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏 向看涨走势。 今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1141.45元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1138.93元/ 克，涨幅3.08%，最高触及1141.45元/克，最低下探1100.25元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走 势。 【要闻速递】 随着鲍威尔任期临近尾声及特朗普提名的潜在人选，美联储的政策独立性面临挑战。交易员已定价6月 降息的可能性(59.4%)。市场普遍预期，一旦新主席上台，美联储可能在夏季转向更鸽派的立场。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d技术面呈现强劲的多头格局。最新报价约1115.5元/克，日内涨幅约0.99%。技术指标显示，均线 系统呈现典型的多头排 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].