Core Viewpoint - The recent movements in the gold market indicate a strong upward trend, with a notable five consecutive weeks of gains, despite some fluctuations during the week [1]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's current policy under Chairman Powell focuses on "risk management," with recent interest rate cuts exhibiting a "hawkish" characteristic, putting pressure on the gold market [2]. - There are concerns about potential "forced rate hikes" in 2026 if current rate cuts do not align with economic trends, reflecting market uncertainty regarding long-term policy paths [2]. - Upcoming speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials are expected to reveal a divided stance on monetary policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts while others oppose them [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data - Market attention is shifting back to inflation data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.32% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for August [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current gold market is in a clear upward trend, having transitioned from a corrective phase to a primary upward cycle, with the key turning point at 3120 [8]. - The five-wave upward structure initiated from 3120 has been identified, with the current phase being the core upward wave (5-wave 3), characterized by significant price increases and strong continuation [9]. - The internal structure of the current upward wave (5-wave 3) is being closely monitored, with recent movements indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend if key support levels are maintained [10][15].

Core Insights - The trade war initiated by Trump has significantly impacted global trade, raising concerns about the current state of the world economy [1] - Despite claims of making America great again, the reality is that the U.S. manufacturing sector has declined, leading to increased reliance on imports and higher costs for consumers [1] - Recent economic data indicates that the concerns regarding inflation and cost pressures are becoming a reality [1] Economic Data Analysis - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in August, with the year-over-year increase dropping from 3.1% to 2.6%, providing temporary relief to investors [3] - A significant factor in this decline was a 1.7% drop in trade services prices, reflecting changes in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers [3] - Companies are currently absorbing the cost pressures from tariffs rather than passing them on to consumers, but this strategy is unsustainable in the long term [3] Inflation Trends - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase in August, with a year-over-year rise of 2.8%, indicating persistent underlying inflation pressures [5] - Durable goods prices have increased consistently, correlating with rising raw material costs due to tariffs [5] - Market sentiment remains optimistic due to the lack of runaway inflation at the wholesale level, influencing expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] Consumer Impact - Changes in wholesale prices are expected to eventually affect retail prices, leading to increased costs for consumers [7] - Many consumers are already feeling the impact of rising prices, as more companies begin to pass on tariff costs [7] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is highly anticipated, with predictions of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a year-over-year rise of 2.9%, the highest since January [7] Economic Uncertainty - The recent decline in wholesale inflation may be a temporary calm before a potential storm, as the effects of tariff policies are becoming more apparent [10] - The profitability of businesses, consumer purchasing power, and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions are all under significant strain due to the ongoing trade war [10] - The responsibility for the current economic situation raises questions, as the trade war's burdens ultimately fall on ordinary American citizens [10]

加百利基金投资组合经理克里斯·曼奇尼表示，投资者可以考虑在投资组合中持有5%至10%的黄金。他补充说，黄金仍然是一种有吸引力的投资， 多面手投资者群体一定程度上还是忽视了这种贵金属。 曼奇尼预计投资者对黄金的兴趣将升温，因投资者希望保护其投资组合的购买力。近期人们对美元的信任仍在减弱，这使得黄金作为一种替代品 更具吸引力。 催化剂基金的首席投资官大卫·米勒建议投资者在其投资组合中持有约15%的黄金。理由是全球央行强劲的黄金需求继续支撑着市场，由于投资者 对美元明显缺乏信心，因此正越来越多地将黄金作为避险资产。在持续通胀和地缘政治不确定性的背景下，美元一直在走弱。国际黄金价格的上 涨速度大大超过了通货膨胀，这反映了人们对美元的信任向黄金等硬通货的转变。 来源：中国黄金网 一些海外分析师认为，国际金价获利回吐是由于投资者重新审视美联储货币政策的转变。尽管预计利率将下调，但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔给大 幅降息的预期泼了一盆冷水，他将联邦公开市场委员会的决定描述为"由忧虑而非信心驱动的风险管理削减"。 美联储降息25个基点是一个明确的信号，疲软的劳动力市场和顽固的通货膨胀促使政策制定者采取行动，但要循序渐进。这一次的 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold has transformed from a silent safe-haven asset into a highly sought-after investment, with prices soaring to a record high of $3,730 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, central bank actions, and unprecedented pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, particularly warnings about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has significantly increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation remains a crucial driver for gold prices, as global monetary expansion and rising prices make gold an effective hedge against currency devaluation. The U.S. economy in 2025 shows a dichotomy with a shrinking manufacturing sector and a robust service sector, raising concerns about stagflation [4]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally have been aggressively purchasing gold, with a net purchase of 1,136 tons in 2024, marking the second-highest level in history. The top buyers in early 2025 were China, Poland, and Turkey, collectively accounting for over 50% of purchases [4]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted significantly under pressure from Trump, with expectations of interest rate cuts following weak economic data. The market anticipates a 95.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025 [5][6]. European Economic Risks - The Eurozone faces significant economic challenges, including slow growth and high debt levels, which further support gold prices. The EU's GDP growth is projected at only 1.1% for 2025, with debt-to-GDP ratios increasing [7]. Broader Market Implications - The rise in gold prices is expected to positively impact other resource assets, with historical trends indicating that a gold bull market often correlates with increased activity in the broader commodities sector. Silver has also seen significant price increases, driven by both investment and industrial demand [7]. Investment Outlook - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3,700 for the end of 2025. However, the rapid price increase raises concerns about potential corrections [9]. Tax Implications - Starting January 2026, gold transactions will incur a 6% value-added tax and a 5% consumption tax, which will directly affect investment returns. For example, a $100,000 investment could incur an additional $11,000 in taxes [11].

Core Viewpoint - The tug-of-war between growth and inflation in the U.S. remains unresolved, with significant uncertainties surrounding the impact of global tariff policies and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in offsetting the burdens of import taxes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The influence of global tariff policies has not yet fully manifested, creating uncertainty in economic forecasts [1] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in counteracting the negative effects of import taxes is still a major unknown [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite significant disappointments in the foreign exchange and interest rate markets, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains clear [1] - The foreign exchange and interest rate markets have misjudged the process and timing of policy implementation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,600 per ounce, but new upward momentum is lacking despite the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Gold - Analysts attribute profit-taking in the gold market to investors reassessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with a cautious approach to rate cuts indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1] - Powell's description of the Fed's decision as "risk management" suggests a gradual approach rather than a significant policy shift, which supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold [1] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Recommendations - Société Générale analysts have increased gold holdings in their multi-asset strategy, projecting gold prices to hover around $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [2] - Chris Mancini from Gabelli Funds recommends a 5% to 10% allocation to gold in investment portfolios, highlighting its attractiveness due to investor indifference [2][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Mancini notes that gold remains an attractive investment as ordinary investors largely overlook it, with significant interest expected to return as investors seek to protect purchasing power [3] - David Miller from Catalyst Fund suggests a 15% allocation to gold, citing erosion of trust in the dollar and strong central bank demand as supporting factors for the market [4] Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Miller emphasizes that the transition of trust from fiat currencies to hard assets like gold is driven by persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, predicting continued price increases for gold [5] - The significant U.S. government debt and deficit are expected to further undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, reinforcing gold's appeal [5] - Jerry Prior from KraneShares indicates a current allocation of 8% to 9% in gold, which has risen to about 12% due to price increases, suggesting that a minimum of 3% allocation is necessary for liquidity [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fed's monetary policy easing is less than market expectations, cooling the sentiment. For copper, overseas copper mines have some disturbances, and the domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, with limited supply surplus pressure. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend [4]. - Aluminium prices were affected by the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, with long - position profit - taking. The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large, and the support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong. Short - term aluminium prices may be volatile [7]. - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For lead, the short - term supply and demand situation is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile [13]. - For nickel, the short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. It is expected that lithium prices will be mainly volatile [19]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For stainless steel, the futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless steel prices will remain volatile [26]. - For cast aluminium alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - LME copper closed down 0.28% at $9946/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79700 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market sentiment was cautious. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 to 148875 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3]. Strategy - The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and overseas copper mines have some disturbances. The domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, and the short - term copper price may turn to a volatile trend [4]. Aluminium Market Information - LME aluminium closed up 0.58% at $2705/ton, and SHFE aluminium's main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton. The Fed's stance was less dovish than expected, leading to long - position profit - taking. The SHFE aluminium weighted contract's open interest decreased by 5.4 to 53.5 million hands, and the social inventory of aluminium ingots increased slightly [6]. Strategy - The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large. The support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong, and SHFE aluminium should focus on the 20700 - point support [7]. Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index closed up 0.30% at 17157 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 5.96 million tons, and the LME lead inventory was 22.54 million tons [8]. Strategy - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The short - term supply and demand situation of lead is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index closed down 1.08% at 22051 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend, and the LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decrease [10]. Strategy - The zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. Tin Market Information - SHFE tin's main contract fell 1.26% to 267840 yuan/ton. The supply decline is obvious, and the demand side is improving marginally. The domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly [12]. Strategy - The short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel's main contract fell 0.70 to 120800 yuan/ton. The spot market transaction did not improve significantly. The cost side has limited downward space, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported [14]. Strategy - The short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the short - term price range of SHFE nickel's main contract at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel's 3M contract at 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index was stable, and the LC2511 contract closed down 1.03%. The domestic production reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly, with tight available spot [18]. Strategy - The supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. The bottom support of lithium carbonate is rising. The lithium price is likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to closely monitor industry information and market sentiment [19]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.2% to 2932 yuan/ton, and the import window was open. The futures inventory decreased [21]. Strategy - The short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract AO2601 at 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12875 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The social inventory decreased, and the raw material prices were stable [25]. Strategy - The futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain volatile [26]. Cast Aluminium Alloy Market Information - The AD2511 contract fell 0.73% to 20285 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream area's inventory increased [28]. Strategy - The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy by lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% due to economic slowdown and rising inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and inflation rates increasing [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August revealed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly down from a revised 79,000 in July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - The Labor Department revised down the projected job growth for the next year by 911,000, raising concerns about the weakness in the U.S. job market [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, with only Stephen Milan opposing, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment and inflation, indicating that future decisions will be data-driven, particularly focusing on inflation and employment data [3]. - The FOMC's economic forecast summary indicates an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.6% and an unemployment rate expectation of 4.5% [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures - President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with previous calls for Powell's resignation [1][2]. - The recent confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, who aligns with Trump's views, raises questions about the Fed's independence [2][3]. - Powell's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence amidst political pressures is crucial for future monetary policy decisions [3].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction of the year, amidst concerns over slowing job growth and persistent inflation [1][3][4] - The decision to lower rates is seen as a response to multiple economic uncertainties, including the impact of tariffs on prices [3][4] - Observers note that while the rate cut aligns with expectations, it may not alleviate the dissatisfaction expressed by the Trump administration towards the Fed [3][6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [4] - The inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [4] - The Fed's median forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 is 1.6%, with an unemployment rate of 4.5% and an inflation rate of 3% [5] Future Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts over the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with only one anticipated cut in 2026 [3][7] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in the October meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from 74.3% the previous day [7] - Analysts suggest that while rate cuts may stimulate demand, ongoing issues such as tariffs and immigration policies could continue to negatively impact consumer and business confidence [7]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by signs of slowing economic activity, weak job growth, and rising inflation, with the labor market being a primary concern for policymakers [1][4] - The Fed's median forecast indicates a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [9] Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly lower than the revised 79,000 in July and below market expectations [4] - The overall inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [4] - The Fed officials predict a median inflation rate of 3% by the end of the year, despite concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [4][5] Political Context - The rate cut did not alleviate the Trump administration's dissatisfaction with the Fed, as the President had previously pressured for more aggressive cuts [5][7] - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Fed governor and White House economic advisor, cast the only dissenting vote against the rate cut, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [7] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the need to balance rising inflation and a weakening labor market, posing a challenge for policymakers [5][7] Future Outlook - The Fed will carefully assess subsequent data and changing economic conditions before making further adjustments to the federal funds rate [8] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, with fewer than two rate hikes anticipated in 2025 [9] - The interplay between rate cuts and tariffs may complicate the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation control goals [9]