1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international trade - currency system restructuring and reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the short - term, London gold will continue to move in a range waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage when silver's upward momentum fades [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - More Fed officials worry about the US job market and support rate cuts, which weakens the US dollar and supports precious metal prices. But the potential cooling of the Russia - Ukraine war and the clarification of no import tariffs on gold and silver weaken the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold pulled back to around $3360 per ounce overnight, while silver was slightly stronger due to China's anti - involution policy expectations. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies. London gold may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated greatly in July. The gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and economic conditions. Gold's volatility has increased, and in the third quarter, pay attention to the impact of US economic and inflation conditions on Fed policies. It is expected that London gold will continue to move in a range in the short - term. Long - minded investors can participate with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Commerce Department allows Nvidia to export H20 chips to China, and Nvidia and AMD will pay 15% of their Chinese chip sales revenue to the US government [18]. - Trump will meet Putin on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war, and the White House is considering inviting Zelensky. European leaders welcome the meeting but emphasize the need to pressure Moscow [18]. - Many Fed officials are worried about the labor market and suggest rate cuts in September. However, some officials think it's too early to commit to rate cuts due to upcoming key data and expected inflation rise [19]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers opposed it, indicating that consecutive rate cuts may be near the end [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to begin, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. There will still be an inflation test in the middle of the month. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.81%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.72% [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes, upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks leading to reduced risk - aversion demand; increased US stagflation risk, weakened employment, and rebounding interest - rate cut expectations; inflation test in the middle of the month [2]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump said on social media on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has encountered resistance [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, a decrease of 762 million US dollars compared with the previous week. M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Data**: Data on ten - year US Treasury real yields, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing different changes [9][10][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserve and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world, as well as ratios such as gold/foreign exchange reserves and IMF foreign exchange reserve proportions are provided, showing different changes [11][12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different Fed interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided [13].

【黄金期货最新行情】 上周五，美国总统特朗普宣布，他将于8月15日在阿拉斯加会见俄罗斯总统普京，商讨结束俄乌冲突的 相关事宜。这一消息令市场对地缘政治风险的担忧有所缓解。 近期美国就业数据表现不及预期，市场对美联储9月降息的预期显著升温。根据市场定价，美联储在9月 放宽货币政策的概率高达90%，并且预计到2025年底还将至少再降息一次。 与此同时，中美贸易谈判的进展也为市场增添了不确定性。特朗普要求华盛顿与北京在8月12日之前达 成协议，这一最后期限的临近让投资者保持高度警惕。 【机构观点】 | 8月11日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 779.48 | -0.81% | 278074 | 211644 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月11日上海黄金现货价格报价778.50元/克，相较于期货主力价格（779.48元/克）贴水0.98 元/克。 新世纪期货：在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心 向以央行购金 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to conflicting news, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, providing bullish support [3] - The market is expected to continue its "whipsaw" behavior, with potential for a downward trend following a brief upward movement [4][6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling during price rebounds, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward pressure on oil prices is primarily due to concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifts in OPEC+ policies [7][8] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a bearish trend, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a mix of fundamental factors, including China's central bank's increase in gold reserves and geopolitical tensions involving U.S. tariffs [3] - The technical outlook suggests that if gold breaks below the support level of $3375-$3370, it may indicate a bearish trend, while a breakout above $3409 could lead to further gains [6] - The current trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions near $3400, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6][8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward trend in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifting OPEC+ policies [7] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

2025年8月08日 黄金行情分析 消息面： 关税动态，美国对等关税生效，欧盟称对美芯片出口仍设15%关税上限；日本首相石破茂表示日美无额外关税分歧，日本商品不会在现有基础上被美国额外 加征15%关税。印度总理莫迪虽未直接响应美国关税，但强硬表态绝不会在农民等群体利益上妥协，面对 50% 关税绝不退让，已准备好付出代价；美国对 瑞士产品加征39%关税生效，瑞士暂不反制并持续磋商；美国对进口金条加征关税，冲击瑞士精炼业。美联储动向，特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰任理事，任期 至2026年1月31日；美联储理事沃勒被视为下任主席最热门人选；特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔不降息，财长贝森特已启动主席面试流程。宏观数据，美国上周 初请失业金人数升至一个月高点，暗示劳动力市场松动，强化美联储降息预期，市场预计下月降息25基点概率超91%。特朗普关税生效、贸易紧张及就业数 据强化降息预期，提振避险需求。 中国央行连续9个月增持黄金消息一出，截至7月末，黄金储备报7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司。导致现货黄金短线突然上涨，一度站上3390美元/盎司。香 港第一金PPLI市场部负责人陈生：PPLDYJ 指出，预计下半年央行或从优化国际储备结 ...

基本面： 周五（8月8日）亚盘时段，现货黄金冲高回落收复隔夜上涨空间，目前暂交投于383美元附近。周四（8月7日）金价延续涨势，现货黄金强势突破3400美元 心理关口，最终收于3395.65美元/盎司。避险需求成为推动金价走高的核心动力。全球贸易紧张局势加剧、美国劳动力市场数据疲软以及美联储降息预期的 持续升温，共同为黄金提供了强劲支撑。与此同时，地缘政治的不确定性也为金价的上涨增添了助力。 8月7日，美国总统特朗普正式对数十个国家的进口商品实施高额关税，税率从10%到50%不等，将美国平均进口关税推至一个世纪以来的最高水平。这一政 策直接导致全球供应链的不确定性上升，市场对通胀和经济放缓的担忧加剧。瑞士、巴西、印度等主要贸易伙伴正紧急寻求更有利的协议，但谈判进展缓 慢。例如，巴西总统卢拉和印度总理莫迪均采取强硬姿态，表示不会轻易妥协，而特朗普对印度额外加征25%关税的决定，进一步加剧了市场紧张情绪。持 续的贸易紧张局势是推动避险需求的主要因素之一。黄金作为传统避险资产，在全球经济不确定性增加的背景下，吸引了大量资金流入。 特朗普的关税政策不仅影响了国际贸易格局，还可能对全球供应链造成深远冲击。华盛顿战略与国 ...

周四(8月7日)，因特朗普关税措施生效，以及美国疲软就业数据提高降息预期，避险需求提高，黄金价格在此前一个交 易日下跌后大幅上涨。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 现货黄金周四收盘大涨26.05美元，涨幅0.77%，报3395.30美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，随着美国最新一轮就业数据显示劳动力市场疲软，黄金价格周四逆转走势，录得强劲涨幅。因此，随着 美联储预计将在9月份恢复其宽松周期，投资者增加鸽派押注。 Valencia称，美国持续申请失业救济人数达到2021年11月以来的水平，助长美联储的鸽派押注。随着通胀持续高企，而 美国就业疲软，滞胀风险显现。 美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至7月26日当周，续请失业金人数增加3.8万人，达到197万人。该数据在高位表明失 业人员找到新工作的难度加大。上周初请失业金人数也上升至22.6万，高于经济学家的预期。 Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，这些数据支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期。 上周，美国疲软的非农业就业数据提振降息预期。 根据Prime Mar ...

Group 1 - The price volatility of precious metals is expected to increase in the future due to recent changes in U.S. tariffs on gold bars and ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and concerns over stagflation, which have driven safe-haven demand [1][3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainties and rising public debt [2][3] Group 2 - The recent imposition of tariffs on Swiss gold bars has led to increased premiums in COMEX gold futures, creating uncertainty about future tariff policies [1] - The upcoming talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump are seen as potential factors influencing precious metal prices [2] - Gold prices have recently tested significant resistance levels, with a need to confirm a breakout above $3,400 per ounce to sustain upward momentum [2][3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $1900, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][2] - Bullish sentiment is supported by weak global economic data, particularly China's manufacturing PMI at 48.8, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Bearish pressure arises from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting further interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is showing initial signs of a bullish reversal, with a clear breakout above a long-term resistance channel [3] - A W-bottom pattern is forming, particularly around the $24 support level, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The gold-silver ratio is declining from approximately 85 to 80, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite and a shift towards more aggressive assets like silver [4] Group 3: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver demand is surging due to significant growth in the photovoltaic industry (over 30% year-on-year) and a 15% increase in demand from electric vehicle battery applications [4] - The combination of industrial demand and the perception of silver being undervalued is fueling the current bullish trend in the silver market [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For gold investors, a patient approach is advised, utilizing a strategy of light positions and opportunistic trading around the $1900-$1910 range, with close monitoring of potential breakout points above $1950 [5] - Silver investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips, particularly around the $24.2-$24.5 support level, with protective stop-losses set below $24 [6]