来源：刘兴亮 责任编辑：杨赐 来源：刘兴亮 责任编辑：杨赐 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 台积电受惠AI应用火热，驱动3纳米以下先进制程产能吃紧，传出已和客户沟通，将从2026年至2029 年连续四年调升先进制程报价，2026年新报价将从元旦起生效，法人看好将押注台积电明年首季传统 淡季业绩持续冲锋，有望至少持平本季甚是小幅季增，挑战历年最旺的第1季。 台积电预定2026年元月15日召开实体法说会，外界聚焦2026年首季展望及涨价议题。法人认为，台 积电明年首季可望淡季不淡，主因辉达、超微等大客户新平台陆续推出，加上博通等非苹客户积极扩 大AI应用领域，成为台积电3纳米以下先进制程持续供不应求的关键动能。 报价方面，业界传出，台积电为厘清真实需求，已和客户沟通，将自2026年起至2029年连续四年涨 价。不过，即便台积电向客户提出涨价诉求，客户仍踊跃预定先进制程产能，目前AI军备竞赛仍未见 熄火。 据悉，台积电2026年涨价幅度为个位数百分比，借此反映生产成本垫高与产能供不应求盛况。不过， 个别客户依据采购等级与情况，报价涨幅不一。 研究机构与法人预期，台积电2026年先进制程报价有望看涨3%至10%不等，个别先进制程调升幅度 不一，但皆有望比今年高 ...

据智通财经报道，杰弗里·辛顿（Geoffrey Hinton），这位被誉为"人工智能教父"的科学家最新警告，人 工智能（AI）将在2026年取代许多工作岗位，导致新一轮"失业潮"。 我们尚未见到失业潮的真正爆发，但数据和决策习惯的变化都在暗示，"结构性替代"正在发生，当下企 业在逐步调整人力模型：用AI做更多事、用更少的人完成标准化流程，在不引发系统性裁员的前提 下，"结构性替代"正在发生，而它将首先影响的，恰恰是那些认为自己"暂时安全"的人。 01：AI真的在"抢饭碗"了吗？ "到2026年，AI将具备取代大部分白领工作的能力，而每7个月一次的能力跃升，正在加速这个过程的到 来。"这是在刚刚过去的周末，这位诺贝尔奖得主、前谷歌高管、深度学习奠基人杰弗里·辛顿 （Geoffrey Hinton）在接受最新采访时说道的判断。 这也是所有打工人最不愿面对的现实，过去一年你也许没被AI抢走饭碗，但它已经默默在下一盘很大 的棋。 我们能看到的变化，其实已经够多。例如AI驱动的自动客服，开始接替大量人力坐席，从外包人力市 场到SaaS平台，无需培训、24小时在线，成本几乎为零；中台程序员被Copilot和CodeWhi ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a turnaround year for Alphabet, with the stock price rebounding significantly after facing multiple uncertainties earlier in the year, including antitrust lawsuits and increased competition in search [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alphabet's stock price has rebounded approximately 116% from its 52-week low of $144.70 on April 8, achieving a year-to-date increase of 65%, outperforming other major tech companies [3] - In comparison, Nvidia increased by 39%, Tesla by 16%, Microsoft by 15%, Meta Platforms by 12%, Apple by 9%, and Amazon by 5.5% during the same period [3] Group 2: Legal and Competitive Landscape - A federal judge ruled in August 2024 that Google maintained its monopoly in general search and text advertising, raising concerns about potential structural changes to the business [3] - However, the subsequent limited remedial measures proposed by the judge alleviated investor concerns about significant business disruptions, leading to improved market sentiment [3] Group 3: AI Strategy and Market Position - Alphabet is proactively advancing its AI search transformation by launching features like "AI Overviews" and providing longer, more personalized answers, which have increased user engagement [4] - Analysts believe that despite the threats posed by AI chat tools, Alphabet's position is significantly better than a year ago, with Google Search remaining robust amid the challenges [5] Group 4: Investment and Analyst Outlook - Alphabet is increasing its capital expenditures to support AI initiatives, with some investors expressing concerns about the rapid spending in the tech sector [5] - Analysts remain optimistic about Alphabet's future, with 64 out of 76 covering analysts rating it as "buy" and an average target price of $334.50, indicating a potential upside of about 6.7% from the latest closing price of $313.51 [5] Group 5: Valuation Concerns - Alphabet's current expected price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 27.8, higher than the five-year average of 21.7 and significantly above the low of 15.5 reached in May [6] - The ability of Alphabet to maintain strength in a high valuation range will depend on whether its AI investments can translate into actual growth and profitability [6]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Trends - In 2025, the U.S. government is implementing conservative economic policies and nationalist trade protectionism, focusing on "small government" principles and significant tax cuts [1] - The U.S. GDP growth shows a trend of declining initially and then increasing, with quarterly growth rates of -0.5%, 3.8%, and 4.3% respectively [1] - The overall inflation is expected to ease, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in September [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google are maintaining revenue growth rates of 8% to 12% due to advancements in AI and enterprise solutions [2] - Startups are facing challenges, with total financing down 28% in 2025 due to high costs and increased investment thresholds [2] - There is a significant disparity in layoffs within the tech sector, with companies like Meta and Amazon expanding AI-related departments while traditional software and hardware sectors see over 60% layoffs [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Services Sector - Despite government efforts to revive manufacturing, the sector is struggling, with a projected Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) average of 48.5, indicating contraction [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with production down 3.2% year-on-year due to supply chain disruptions and weak consumer demand [2] - The service sector remains a growth pillar for the U.S. economy, although there is a noticeable shift in consumer spending patterns towards lower-quality goods [2] Group 4: Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.6% by November 2025, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - There is a trend of "no job prosperity," with significant layoffs in the tech sector and a widening wealth gap potentially impacting consumer spending [4] - The Federal Reserve has shifted to a rate-cutting stance, reducing rates by 75 basis points since September 2025 in response to economic pressures [4] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth in 2026 is expected to be driven by private consumption and AI-related investments, with a projected growth rate of around 2.5% [6] - The structural decline in inflation is anticipated, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be below 2.5% [6] - The economic outlook remains uncertain due to various factors, including debt sustainability, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions [6][7]

但是从1995年之后，互联网就开始爆发式发展，催生了庞大的市场规模，我们中国也就是从那个时候开 始慢慢跟上。 你看从萌芽到爆发，中间隔了30~35年。 标题是今天很多朋友问我的，因为昨天的文章提到了几次AI，看样子你们都对高成长性公司感兴趣。 这个问题我是不太愿意讲的，因为容易拉仇恨。 先说好听的，AI这个行业肯定是非常好的，一个朝阳新型产业，市场庞大有潜力，未来万物皆可AI。 但是告诉大家一个时间节点，互联网的萌芽时间是1960年~1980年，这个时间段建立了 TCP/IP 协议， 最后NSFNET成为互联网主干。 这20年时间，互联网规模很小，主要用于科研和军事。 互联网真正开始发展，是到了90年代，1990年诞生了全球第一个网站，随后在西方快速发展，到1995年 他们开始商业化，比如亚马逊和eBay就是那一年成立的，但是这个时候全球的用户也才百万级别。 这个时间是不是看起来很长？其实这已经是人类历史上发展速度最快的技术之一。 那么AI这几年开始萌芽，发展到成熟，再到全面商业化爆发需要多久？ 我相信肯定用不了30年，但是具体需要多少年，这没人知道，技术变革确实有很大不确定性。 如果只需要3年，那么现在的A ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex relationship between job layoffs and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), highlighting that while AI is a factor in job displacement, it also creates new opportunities and roles in the workforce [3][4]. Group 1: Job Displacement and AI - In 2025, approximately 55,000 layoffs in the U.S. are attributed to AI, with major tech companies like Amazon and Salesforce reducing thousands of positions [3]. - AI is capable of performing about 11.7% of jobs in the U.S. labor market, potentially saving up to $1.2 trillion in wage expenditures in sectors like finance and healthcare [3]. - The relationship between layoffs and AI is nuanced; while some jobs, particularly entry-level positions, are being automated, new roles are also emerging as a result of faster information flow [4][9]. Group 2: Corporate Perspectives on AI and Layoffs - Dr. Rumman Chowdhury, an AI expert, notes that layoffs are not solely driven by AI advancements but also by companies needing to cut costs after investing heavily in unprofitable technologies [6]. - IBM's CEO Arvind Krishna acknowledges that while AI may replace about 10% of jobs, it will not fully replace human workers and may ultimately lead to more hiring in new fields [7]. - The trend of layoffs is seen as a "natural correction" rather than purely an AI-driven phenomenon, with companies needing to address overhiring issues [6][7]. Group 3: Job Market Trends - Analysis from Indeed indicates that as of early 2025, hiring for senior and management tech positions has decreased by 19% compared to pre-pandemic levels, while entry-level tech positions have seen a 34% decline [10]. - The requirements for tech jobs are becoming stricter, with the proportion of positions requiring at least five years of experience rising from 37% to 42% between Q2 2022 and Q2 2025 [10]. - Amazon Web Services' CEO Matt Garman criticizes the trend of replacing junior engineers with new technology, arguing that it undermines the development of talent and innovation within companies [10]. Group 4: The Paradox of Work and AI - The article references the "Jevons Paradox," suggesting that technological advancements often lead to increased demand for resources rather than a reduction in workload [11]. - Despite the rise of AI, the culture in Silicon Valley is shifting towards longer working hours, contradicting the expectation that automation would reduce work demands [11]. - The notion that work is a finite resource is challenged, as the article posits that work is an expanding ecosystem rather than a diminishing bubble [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese public fund industry is transitioning from "rapid growth" to "high-quality development," marking a critical shift in growth paradigms as it moves into 2026 after a significant "self-revolution" in 2025 [1] Group 1: Shift from Scale to Quality - The industry is moving from a "scale is king" mentality to prioritizing "investor satisfaction," driven by regulatory guidance and a focus on long-term investment returns [2] - Fund companies are expected to transition from a "sales-driven" model to a "service-driven" and "performance-driven" approach, emphasizing the importance of aligning interests with investors [2] - The introduction of floating fee rate funds and a revised evaluation system will focus on long-term risk-adjusted returns rather than short-term rankings and scale metrics [2] Group 2: Industry Restructuring - A new wave of industry consolidation is anticipated, with some fund companies expected to grow stronger through mergers and resource integration, aiming to create comprehensive financial institutions [3] - Smaller fund companies are finding success through differentiated competition, focusing on specialized areas such as quantitative indices and public REITs, while those lacking distinct identities face survival challenges [4] - The "Matthew effect" will become more pronounced, with leading firms leveraging brand and scale advantages, while smaller firms seek growth through niche positioning [4] Group 3: Tooling and Granularity - The trend of using tool-based products for asset allocation is becoming mainstream, with fund companies developing increasingly granular investment products to meet market demands [5] - Index products are evolving from broad categories to highly specialized offerings, providing low-cost entry points into specific industry sectors [5] - Active equity funds are undergoing a "tooling transformation," with new regulations expected to enhance the clarity of investment styles and their associated alpha generation capabilities [6] Group 4: AI in Investment Research - AI is expected to transition from a supportive role to a "second brain" in investment decision-making, enhancing cognitive boundaries and decision-making processes [7] - Fund companies are adopting AI technologies for various applications, including risk management and product innovation, which could fundamentally change business models [8] - AI will play a significant role in improving operational efficiency across governance, compliance, and customer service, leading to more refined product offerings [8] Group 5: Evolution of Fund Sales - The fund sales sector is set to undergo a comprehensive restructuring in 2026, focusing on customer-centric approaches rather than scale-driven growth [9] - Regulatory changes are pushing for a new assessment framework that prioritizes client outcomes over sales volume, marking a shift towards long-term value creation [9] - The sales strategy is evolving from "finding blockbuster funds" to "long-term companionship," aiming to enhance investor trust and address the issue of fund profitability versus investor returns [9]

Group 1 - The year 2025 has been characterized by significant market volatility, with the S&P 500 index showing an annual increase of over 17%, while gold prices surged by more than 70% to reach $4,500 per ounce [2][4][6] - Despite predictions of a recession, the market did not follow the expected downturn, indicating that risk assets have not reacted as anticipated to economic fears [7][8] - The performance of various assets in 2025 revealed a stark contrast, with silver leading gains at 173.13%, followed by gold at 73.91%, while light crude oil experienced a decline of 19.63% [4][5] Group 2 - The market's resilience in 2025 was attributed to a shift in how fear is priced, with investors adapting to a new financial order where risks are managed through structured approaches [3][8] - The five key variables driving market behavior in 2025 included the revaluation of dollar credit risk, the rise of real assets, and the dynamics of energy pricing, which reflected broader economic uncertainties [9][10] - The focus on AI as a growth narrative has intensified, with capital increasingly concentrated in technology sectors, indicating a shift towards profitability and productivity validation in 2026 [10][13] Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a transition in asset pricing logic, moving from explaining the world to discounting future cash flows, emphasizing the importance of financial conditions and narrative realization [12][14] - The potential for a "power factory" model in AI investment is highlighted, where the focus shifts from merely acquiring GPUs to establishing sustainable computational infrastructure [13][14] - The anticipated economic environment in 2026 may lead to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting the yield curve and creating opportunities in mid to short-duration assets [14][15]

智通财经APP获悉，自美国总统特朗普在4月初所谓"解放日"宣布对贸易伙伴大规模加征关税引发美国 债券市场动荡以来，特朗普政府一直在谨慎调整其政策与对外表述，以防止再次引发市场动荡。但一些 投资者表示，这种"休战"状态依然十分脆弱。 这种脆弱性在11月5日再次显现。当天，美国财政部暗示正在考虑增加长期国债的发行。同一天，美国 最高法院开始就特朗普大规模贸易关税的合法性展开辩论。基准10年期美债收益率——今年以来已大幅 下行——当日跳升逾6个基点，成为近几个月来最大单日涨幅之一。 在市场本就对美国联邦财政赤字规模感到不安的背景下，财政部的提议引发了一些投资者对长期国债收 益率上行压力的担忧。而美国最高法院的案件则令市场对用于偿付由市场持有的30万亿美元政府债务的 一项重要收入来源——即关税——产生疑虑。花旗集团分析师Edward Acton在11月6日的一份每日报告 中将这一时点称为"一次现实检验"。 一项对十多位银行和资产管理机构高管的调查显示，受访者认为，在过去几个月债券市场表面平静之 下，美国政府与担忧美国长期高赤字、高债务水平的投资者之间，实际上正在上演一场意志博弈。反映 这些担忧的是，所谓的"期限溢价" ...