报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%，再度降至线下。主要分项指标中，产 需双双回落，原材料和出厂价格均有下行，原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降，化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资，基建投资累计同比增速有所上升，制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降，房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计，4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，水泥价格同比略有上升，螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄，预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩，预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降； 最后 ，乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计，4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...

本报记者 熊悦 4月30日上午，兴业银行召开了2025年第一季度业绩会。兴业银行行长陈信健、首席风险官赖富荣、计 划财务部总经理林舒等管理层人员围绕外界关注的净息差全年走势、信贷投放结构、资产质量趋势等话 题进行回应。 陈信健在业绩会上表示，今年一季度，兴业银行经营成果保持稳定，各项工作符合预期，但也面临一定 的经营压力。 两方面入手稳息差 兴业银行4月29日晚间发布的2025年第一季度报告显示，报告期内，该行的净息差为1.80%，同比下降 0.07个百分点。此前该行管理层人员表示，今年兴业银行的净息差预计有10个基点的下降，整体跑赢行 业平均水平。 林舒在业绩会上表示，今年一季度，该行对公和零售贷款利率较去年四季度均有下降。同时，受去年一 季度没有存款补息政策约束、市场付息率基数较高影响，预计接下来该行及各家银行的存款付息率降幅 都会有所趋缓。 为了将该行全年的净息差降幅控制在10个基点的范围内，"下一阶段稳定净息差工作主要有两个关键抓 手，一是负债端主要抓好主结算账户，今年整体的重点是促进低成本存款的增长，控制一些高成本存款 品种的量价增长；二是做好债券发行的统筹安排，这对成本管控也会产生一些正向的推动作 ...

从净利润来看，去年净利润水平最高的是江苏银行，也是四家银行中唯一一家净利润在300亿元以上 的，为333.06亿元，同比增长10.97%。其次是，宁波银行272.21亿元，同比增长6.29%；上海银行235.60 亿元，同比增长4.38%；南京银行203.65亿元，同比增长9.31%。 今年一季度，江苏银行单季净利润突破100亿元，达到了100.92亿元，其后依次是宁波银行、上海银 行、南京银行，分别为74.56亿元、61.39亿元、62.92亿元。 三大业务板块动能切换 利息净收入、手续费及佣金净收入、投资净收入是银行的三大主要营收来源，也可以基本反映出对公、 零售、金市三大业务板块的发展情况。 近期，长三角头部的四家城商行——江苏银行、上海银行、宁波银行、南京银行的2024年及今年一季度 财报均已披露完毕。综合比较四家银行财报数据，江苏银行依旧稳稳占据"老大哥"地位，但后三位小弟 也在去年各有亮点。 资产是银行发展的底盘，从总资产来看，截至一季度末，最高的是江苏银行，为4.46万亿元；其次是宁 波银行，为3.40万亿元，首次超过上海银行，上海银行则是为3.27万亿元。南京银行目前最低，为2.77 万亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, maintaining the previous rating [9]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income of 4.0% and 3.2% respectively for Q1 2025, with annualized ROE and ROA decreasing by 1.00 percentage points and 0.09 percentage points to 9.06% and 0.68% respectively. Despite short-term pricing pressure, credit issuance remains stable, and asset quality is steady, reinforcing the company's leading position [2][3]. Summary by Sections Credit and Asset Quality - As of March 2025, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 8.5%, and 4.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The company issued new loans totaling 1.31 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 85% and retail loans for 14% [3]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio stood at 1.33% and 216% respectively, showing stability compared to the end of 2024. The retail financial NPL ratio saw a slight increase, but the pace of growth has slowed [5]. Income and Expenses - Non-interest income decreased by 4.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a slowdown in other non-interest income, which fell by 10.4% due to market fluctuations. Fee income accounted for 18.3% of total revenue, with the company focusing on growth in clearing, settlement, payment, and custody services [4]. - The cost-to-income ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 22.0%, maintaining a favorable level [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.03, 1.06, and 1.10 yuan respectively, with a target price of 8.76 yuan for A shares and 6.71 HKD for H shares, reflecting a target PB of 0.80 and 0.57 respectively [6]. - The projected PB for 2025 is 0.66 for A shares and 0.46 for H shares, with the company expected to enjoy a valuation premium due to its leading position [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 238 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year [4][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased by 1 basis point to 1.08%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 4.4 percentage points to 233% [4][10]. - The report highlights that net interest income continues to show stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in Q1 2025, contributing 0.8 percentage points to revenue growth [6][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 212,493.02 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 78,532.42 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.72% [5]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in net profit growth rates for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 1.7%, 4.8%, and 5.9% respectively [10]. Loan and Deposit Performance - The company's total loans increased by 4.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with new corporate loans exceeding 150 billion yuan, particularly in technology and green sectors [6][9]. - Total deposits reached 5,627.965 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [11]. Key Ratios - The report indicates a net interest margin (NIM) of 1.59% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 2 basis points year-on-year but an increase of 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 24.22%, a decrease of 15.3 percentage points year-on-year [11].

然而，作为扎根粤港澳大湾区的头部农商行，广州农商银行却凭借其独特的经营策略和韧性，交出了一 份"稳中有进"的答卷：营业收入降幅显著收窄、资产质量指标创五年最优、资本实力持续夯实、中小额 资产增长提速。 此外，广州农商银行这份"一降两升"的成绩单，也为中小银行应对行业周期波动提供了可借鉴样本。 一份"一降两升"的成绩单 银行作为典型的顺周期行业，其经营状况与宏观经济走势紧密相连。经济上行时信贷需求旺盛、资产质 量提升，经济下行时则面临息差收窄、风险暴露加剧的困境。 2024年，全球地缘政治冲突频发，国内经济增速放缓，利率下行趋势明显。在此背景下，银行业面临净 息差压缩、资产质量承压、盈利增速放缓等多重挑战。 然而，在行业整体承压的态势下，广州农商银行的经营业绩却呈现出一些积极变化，实现了不良贷款 率、拨备覆盖率、资本充足率的"一降两升"。 从营业收入角度来看，广州农商银行在2024年营业收入降幅收窄。由2023年下降19.47%减少为2024年 下降12.79%，降幅共收窄6.68个百分点，下滑势头得到遏制。 从资产质量角度来看，广州农商银行在2024年取得了显著改善。不良贷款率较上年末下降0.21%，降至 1 ...

Group 1 - Ningjin Rural Commercial Bank has launched an innovative financial service model combining "industry + e-commerce + credit" to support the development of local特色产业 [1] - The bank has established a financing service platform for e-commerce businesses and individual entrepreneurs, providing tailored services to companies in the wood, elevator, and fitness equipment industries [1] - As of the end of March, the bank issued "e-commerce industry loans" to 322 clients totaling 115 million yuan, and provided credit support of 323 million yuan to 872 e-commerce customers [1] Group 2 - Shandong Blightway Fitness Equipment Co., Ltd. is a modern fitness equipment company focusing on design, research and development, production, and sales [2] - The company is upgrading its production line and entering the e-commerce sector, facing challenges such as low production capacity and high costs [2] - Ningjin Rural Commercial Bank provided a loan of 9.5 million yuan to the company, addressing its financing difficulties and allowing it to benefit from related subsidies [2]

当前，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，美国近期对所有贸易伙伴加征关税，严重侵犯各国正当权益， 严重违反世贸组织规则，严重冲击全球经济秩序稳定。在这一背景下，全方位扩大国内需求，针对性解 决制约消费的突出矛盾问题，大力提振消费，不仅有利于更好满足人民美好生活需要、提高人民生活水 平，也有利于更好发挥消费在经济发展中的基础性作用，做强国内大循环，加快构建新发展格局，更好 抵御外部风险冲击。消费信贷作为连接金融服务与居民消费的重要桥梁，是提振消费、扩大国内需求的 重要金融产品。数字金融具有广覆盖、低成本、高效率的特点，可以显著提升消费信贷的质量和覆盖 面，更好满足人民群众多样化的消费需求，对于激发内需潜力具有重要意义。 《习近平经济文选》第一卷（以下简称《文选》）中的多篇著作都对扩大消费、发展数字金融作出深刻 论述。比如，《把握新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，构建新发展格局》指出："加快培育完整内需体 系，加强需求侧管理，扩大居民消费，提升消费层次"；《服务实体经济，防范金融风险》指出："要扎 根于为实体经济服务、适应消费者和投资者需要进行金融创新"；《走好中国特色金融发展之路》指 出："新时代新征程，金融工作要站稳人民 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share of $1.31 for Q1 2025, an increase from $1.28 in the previous quarter and $1.05 in Q1 2024 [4][10] - Adjusted return on assets was 1.29% and pre-provision ROAA was 1.71% [4] - Net interest income (NII) reached $1.1 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of NII expansion [4][5] - The net interest margin improved to 4.15% at the end of Q1 2025 [13][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth for the quarter was 3%, amounting to $78 million, with active production across all markets [5] - The company experienced a seasonal decline in loans related to tax credits, totaling approximately $75 million [5] - Non-interest income for Q1 was $18 million, which included a $1.9 million gain on the sale of SBA loans [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Southern California market saw strong loan growth of $60 million, or 13% annualized [7] - National deposit verticals grew by $134 million, approximately 16% annualized in Q1 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the acquisition of 12 branches from First Interstate Bank, enhancing its commercial banking presence in Arizona [3][19] - The management emphasized a disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on share repurchases and M&A opportunities [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong financial performance despite potential margin erosion due to interest rate variability [14] - The company anticipates modest loan growth in 2025, focusing on balance sheet growth amid economic uncertainty [40] Other Important Information - The allowance for credit losses was adjusted to 1.27% of total loans, reflecting potential economic conditions [16] - The company repurchased 192,000 shares at an average price of $55.28, returning approximately $11 million to shareholders [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Terms of the branch deal and purchase price - The acquisition involves assuming approximately $450 million in cash, with expectations of slightly improved margins post-deal [29] Question: Pro forma capital levels post-close and impact on buyback - Pro forma capital is expected to meet targets, allowing for continued share repurchases and M&A activity [31][32] Question: Industry exposures from the loans brought over - The company confirmed no dairy exposure in the transaction, focusing on attractive loan opportunities [35] Question: Timing for exiting non-performing loans - Management indicated that while timing is uncertain, they are confident in the ability to collect on secured loans [54] Question: Outlook on net interest income and margin - Management expects net interest income to remain stable despite potential margin declines, with proactive measures in place [44][52] Question: Quarterly cadence for expenses - The company anticipates stable deposit costs and a gradual increase in expenses aligned with seasonal trends [47] Question: Efficiency ratio of branch operations - The efficiency ratio for the acquired branches is expected to be in the range of 52% to 54% [49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $1.31 per diluted share, an increase from $1.28 in the previous quarter and $1.05 in Q1 2024, resulting in an adjusted return on assets of 1.29% and a pre-provision ROAA of 1.71% [5][10] - Net interest income (NII) reached $1,100,000, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of NII expansion despite two fewer days in the quarter [5][6] - The net interest margin improved to 4.15%, with expectations of slightly stronger performance for 2025, although modest erosion of margin is anticipated throughout the year [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth for the quarter was 3% or $78,000,000, with active production across all markets, although net growth was impacted by a $30,000,000 sale of SBA loans and a seasonal decline in tax credit loans totaling approximately $75,000,000 [6][10] - Non-interest income for Q1 was $18,000,000, including a $1,900,000 gain on the sale of SBA loans, which partially offset a decrease in tax credit income [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Western market of Southern California experienced a strong quarter with $60,000,000 or 13% annualized loan growth, driven by refinancing loans for fully occupied medical and mixed-use properties [8][9] - Total client deposits, excluding brokered funds, increased by 7.7% year-over-year, with national deposit verticals growing by $134,000,000 or roughly 16% annualized in Q1 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the acquisition of 12 branches from First Interstate Bank, enhancing its commercial banking presence, particularly in Arizona [4][20] - The management emphasized a disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on share repurchases and M&A opportunities to create shareholder value [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong financial performance despite economic uncertainties, with a focus on balance sheet growth and attracting new relationships [39] - The company anticipates modest erosion of net interest margin due to recent interest rate variability but remains committed to mitigating this through disciplined pricing [15][45] Other Important Information - The company’s tangible common equity ratio increased to 9.3%, and tangible book value rose by 14% on an annualized basis to $38.54 [20] - A succession plan was announced, with Scott Goodman transitioning to a part-time role, and Doug Bauche promoted to Chief Banking Officer [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Terms of the branch deal and purchase price - The acquisition involves assuming approximately $450,000,000 in cash, with expectations of a similar to slightly improved margin post-deal [29] Question: Pro forma capital levels post-close and impact on buyback - Pro forma capital is expected to meet targets, allowing for continued share repurchases alongside the transaction [31][32] Question: Industry exposures from the loans brought over - The company confirmed no dairy exposure was included in the transaction [34] Question: Organic loan growth outlook for 2025 - Management anticipates mid-single-digit growth, with potential for increased activity in the second half of the year [39] Question: Margin outlook and ability to defend current levels - The company expects a slight sequential decline in margin but remains optimistic about net interest income growth [44][45] Question: Timing for resolution of non-performing loans - Management indicated that while timing is uncertain, they are confident in the ability to collect on the loans due to strong collateral [56][58] Question: Expense cadence and impact from the branch deal - The efficiency ratio for the branch operations is expected to be in the 52% to 54% range, with minimal recurring fees anticipated [49][74]