1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the price of London gold rose by 2.86%, while London silver fell by -0.3%. The gold-silver ratio increased from 91.4 to 95.2, the 10-year TIPS fell to 2.13%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.41% (2-year 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 98.1 [3]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel this week was the main disturbance in the precious metals market. The report maintains its view on gold, stating that as an asset with a long - term upward trend, once there is a new driver, long - term funds are more likely to re - enter the gold market and raise the bottom support [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -19.25 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -20 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 widened again to -0.079 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.095 US dollars per ounce [8][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -3.5 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was 2 yuan per gram, also at the lower end of the historical range [18][19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spreads - This week, the gold monthly spread was 4.22 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - This week, the silver monthly spread was 36 yuan per kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [26]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - For gold, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 11.38 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.45 yuan per gram [29][30]. - For silver, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 133.26 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was -95.90 yuan per kilogram [31][32]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Directions of SGE Spot Gold and Silver - This week, the SGE gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.3%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 3.74 million ounces to 494.72 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.5%. The gold futures inventory increased by 330 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1210 tons [35][37][39]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold slightly increased, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also slightly increased [41]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 4.85 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 56.55 tons [46][48]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 91.4 to 95.2 [50]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1M gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 4.8% [53]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [58]. 3.2.2 Other Macroeconomic Indicators - The report also presented data on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycles, financial conditions, economic surprise indices, inflation surprise indices, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability, but no specific core views were summarized for these aspects in the text [63][66][71][74][75].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

当地时间14日，总台记者获悉，伊朗警告美国、英国和法国不要向以色列提供支持，否则伊朗方面 会将以上国家的军事基地和船只视为目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Israel has attacked fuel storage tanks in southern Tehran, as reported by Iran's Oil Ministry official website Shana [1] Group 1 - The attack specifically targeted fuel storage facilities, indicating a strategic move by Israel in the region [1]

中东紧张局势引爆能源市场。 美东时间6月13日，美股开盘后，能源股全线爆发，休斯敦能源盘中一度涨至熔断，最高暴涨超176%，美国能 源最高大涨超93%。美股能源板块大涨的导火索无疑是以色列与伊朗的冲突升级，国际油价日内一度飙涨超 10%。 当前中东紧张局势正持续升级。据央视新闻，当地时间13日晚，伊朗已发动第三波导弹袭击，向以色列方向发 射约150枚导弹。另据以色列军方消息人士称，美国正在帮助以色列拦截来自伊朗的导弹。美军的萨德反导系 统参与了拦截行动。以色列国防部长在一份声明中表示，伊朗发射导弹的行为已经"越过了红线"。 与此同时，美军也有大动作。为回应以色列袭击伊朗以及伊朗可能采取的报复性袭击，美国正在调动其在中东 的舰艇和其他军事资源，美国海军已指示"托马斯·哈德纳"号驱逐舰驶往东地中海。 全线暴涨 美东时间6月13日，美股能源股全线爆发，休斯敦能源盘中一度暴涨超176%，截至收盘，涨幅仍达119.19%， 美国能源大涨超55%，Indonesia Energy大涨超46%，哈里伯顿涨超5%，西方石油涨超3%，埃克森美孚、戴文 能源、康菲石油涨超2%。 美股能源板块大涨无疑与以色列与伊朗的冲突升级有关， ...

稍早之前，据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）、英国《卫报》等媒体报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间13日在社交平台上发帖，警告伊朗在"一无所有"之前达成核协 议，并称以色列下一轮针对伊朗的袭击会更加"残酷"。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月13日，伊朗正式退出与美国的核谈判。 延伸阅读： 伊朗西部一空军基地附近传出爆炸声 伊朗迈赫尔通讯社13日报道，位于伊朗西部哈马丹省的一座空军基地附近传出爆炸声。 伊朗暂停国内和国际航班 据伊朗民航组织当地时间13日发布的消息，当前伊朗所有机场的国内和国际航班暂停，直至另行通知。 以军继续对伊打击 以军发言人：正在为伊朗的回应做准备 消息人士称，至少有20名伊朗高级指挥官在以色列13日对伊朗的袭击中身亡，其中包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队空军司令阿米尔·阿里·哈吉-扎德。 当天稍早前，以色列国防军称，12日夜间至13日凌晨，以色列情报部门确认伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队空军最高指挥部正在地下聚集，准备进攻以色列。随后，以色列空 军战斗机袭击了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队空军司令阿米尔·阿里·哈吉-扎德、空军无人机指挥部司令塔赫尔-普尔和革命卫队空军防空指挥部司令达乌德·希希安。 以色列将关闭所有驻外使馆 以色列外 ...

Market Overview - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in A-shares, while Hong Kong stocks showed a slight decrease with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.59% [1] - Israeli airstrikes on Iran involved over 200 aircraft and more than 330 bombs, targeting key facilities related to Iran's nuclear program [1] Oil Market Impact - Brent crude oil futures surged over 13% during Asian trading on June 13, with significant increases in related stocks such as Shandong Molong up over 75% and Sinopec Oilfield Service up 25% [2][3] - In the worst-case scenario, a larger conflict could reduce Iranian oil exports by 2.1 million barrels per day, impacting global oil supply [3] Gold and Defense Sector - Gold prices typically rise during conflicts, with stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold up over 10% and other jewelry-related companies also seeing gains [3] - The Middle East's military trade, which accounted for 36.87% of global imports from 2013 to 2022, may see increased activity, particularly benefiting domestic defense manufacturers like AVIC [3] Shipping and Utilities - The demand for shipping is strong, with companies like China Shipbuilding Leasing seeing significant stock price increases, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [4] - Utility stocks are favored in the current market environment, with companies like Anhui Expressway and Datang International Power Generation also experiencing gains [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector is showing signs of weakness, with companies like Junshi Biosciences experiencing a drop of over 10% due to financing activities [4] - Conversely, companies like Innovent Biologics are seeing gains, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [5] Real Estate Policy Changes - Guangzhou's proposed consumption stimulus plan includes easing restrictions on real estate, which may positively impact local developers like Yuexiu Property and China Resources Land [6] Refrigerant Market - Dongyue Group is positioned to benefit from rising refrigerant prices, with significant production capacity and market share in R22 and R32 refrigerants [7][8] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth as refrigerant prices rise due to increased demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in A-shares is attributed to a black swan event, specifically geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has led to widespread market panic and a significant decline in stock prices [1][4]. Market Reaction - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and more than 4,400 stocks falling [1][4]. - Defensive sectors such as oil, gas, and precious metals saw gains despite the overall market downturn, indicating a shift towards defensive asset allocation [3][5]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of tensions, particularly the news of Israel's attack on Iran, has raised serious concerns about broader regional conflict, triggering a risk-averse sentiment across global markets [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical situation is concerning, it is essential not to overreact, as markets tend to stabilize over time [3][9]. Investment Strategy - In light of the current market volatility, maintaining a defensive asset allocation is crucial. Historical data indicates that defensive sectors like gold and oil tend to outperform in the month following a conflict outbreak [11]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash, to mitigate the impact of single events on their overall investment [20]. Position Management - It is recommended to maintain a cash position of 10%-15% to provide liquidity and the ability to capitalize on opportunities during market downturns [21]. - Utilizing dollar-cost averaging through systematic investment plans can help smooth out volatility and reduce overall investment costs during market dips [23]. Conclusion - A well-structured investment portfolio should be resilient enough to withstand market turbulence, emphasizing the importance of preparation and strategic asset allocation in navigating through volatile periods [24].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in A-shares due to a black swan event has raised concerns about its impact on the market, while defensive sectors like oil and precious metals have shown resilience [1][5][6]. Market Reaction - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext index dropping over 1% and more than 4,400 stocks falling [1][3]. - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.47 trillion, with defensive sectors such as mining, precious metals, and oil rising against the trend [3][6]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the news of Israel's attack on Iran, has triggered global market panic and heightened concerns about potential wider conflicts [5][9]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term impacts are significant, systemic risks remain manageable, and markets may stabilize over time [4][9][10]. Defensive Asset Allocation - Historical data indicates that defensive sectors like gold and oil tend to outperform in the month following a conflict outbreak, while tech growth sectors may experience increased volatility [11]. - Recommendations for defensive asset allocation include diversifying investments across stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash to mitigate risks from single events [20]. Investment Strategies - Maintaining a defensive asset allocation is crucial during market volatility, with a focus on bond funds, money market funds, and high-dividend funds [19][18]. - Cash management is emphasized, suggesting a 10%-15% cash position to provide liquidity and opportunities during market downturns [21]. - Dollar-cost averaging through regular investments can help smooth out volatility and lower overall costs during market dips [23]. Conclusion - A well-structured investment portfolio should maintain its course during turbulent times, with preparedness being key to navigating market fluctuations [24].

Core Viewpoints - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to significant market reactions, including a drop in U.S. futures and a surge in gold and oil prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - A total of 4,477 stocks in the A-share market declined, with only 849 stocks rising, indicating a broad market downturn [2]. - The consumer sector, both new and old, has been heavily impacted, with traditional consumption stocks like liquor continuing to decline, particularly Moutai since May 15 [2]. - The innovative drug sector showed strength but experienced a significant pullback after a brief surge, with only a few stocks like Shuyitai continuing to rise [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The military industry is highlighted as a key area of focus, with stocks like AVIC Chengfei rising by 11% and Chengfei Integration hitting the daily limit, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased domestic military product reputation [3]. - The oil sector experienced a sharp increase of 14% but is viewed as having limited sustainability due to global economic fundamentals affecting oil prices [3]. - Gold remains a safe haven asset during turbulent times, with its price fluctuations reflecting ongoing global uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is transitioning from sector rotation to a weaker overall performance, suggesting a cautious approach is necessary [4]. - There are questions regarding how to navigate the current market adjustment and which segments of the military industry may present better investment opportunities [4]. - The robotics sector has faced several months of adjustment, raising concerns about its future attractiveness and potential buying points [4]. - The innovative drug sector's recent performance raises questions about whether the current pullback is a buying opportunity or the start of a more significant adjustment [4].