注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰黄金ETF联接A（000218），国泰黄金ETF联接C（004253）。 国海证券指出，黄金长期趋势取决于美元信用和通胀预期，长期来看美元信用弱化、美国通胀长期高于 2%目标水平对金价形成利多。理论上，滞胀为黄金上涨提供有利环境，过热和衰退对黄金价格影响偏 中性。黄金短期受事件驱动影响较大，包括美联储和欧央行货币政策预期的边际变化、地缘政治等。 相关机构表示，中长期来看，美国经济走弱、全球货币体系"去美元化"持续演进仍对金价构成支撑。投 资者可通过黄金基金ETF（518800）和黄金股票ETF（517400）布局相关机会。若金价在短期出现调 整，可以考虑逢低布局。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and more than 4,600 stocks falling [1][5] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with sectors like mining, oil, and gas showing gains, while technology, real estate, and port sectors faced significant declines [3] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Rising geopolitical risks, particularly concerning potential military actions by the U.S. against Iran, have heightened market volatility and increased risk aversion among investors [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates, coupled with warnings about tariffs potentially exacerbating inflation, has impacted global liquidity expectations and led to a sell-off in U.S. stocks, affecting Asian markets [10] Sector Performance and Investment Trends - High-performing sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, controlled nuclear fusion, and digital currencies have seen corrections, with specific stocks hitting their daily limit down [11][12] - The upcoming earnings reporting period for A-shares is expected to favor growth-oriented stocks, with historical data indicating that growth styles tend to perform better during this time [21][24] Future Signals and Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest monitoring two key signals: the geopolitical situation regarding U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic policy developments, particularly the upcoming Politburo meeting in late July [14][15] - The market is advised to focus on defensive assets like gold and oil-related funds, while also considering growth sectors such as AI and military technology for long-term investment [16][26] ETF Investment Trends - Despite recent market volatility, there has been a net inflow into ETFs over the past four days, indicating investor interest in diversified exposure [22][19] - Popular ETFs include those tracking the STAR Market, Hang Seng Technology, and various industry-specific funds, reflecting a balanced investment approach [20][18]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in A-shares is attributed to a black swan event, specifically geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has led to widespread market panic and a significant decline in stock prices [1][4]. Market Reaction - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and more than 4,400 stocks falling [1][4]. - Defensive sectors such as oil, gas, and precious metals saw gains despite the overall market downturn, indicating a shift towards defensive asset allocation [3][5]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of tensions, particularly the news of Israel's attack on Iran, has raised serious concerns about broader regional conflict, triggering a risk-averse sentiment across global markets [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical situation is concerning, it is essential not to overreact, as markets tend to stabilize over time [3][9]. Investment Strategy - In light of the current market volatility, maintaining a defensive asset allocation is crucial. Historical data indicates that defensive sectors like gold and oil tend to outperform in the month following a conflict outbreak [11]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash, to mitigate the impact of single events on their overall investment [20]. Position Management - It is recommended to maintain a cash position of 10%-15% to provide liquidity and the ability to capitalize on opportunities during market downturns [21]. - Utilizing dollar-cost averaging through systematic investment plans can help smooth out volatility and reduce overall investment costs during market dips [23]. Conclusion - A well-structured investment portfolio should be resilient enough to withstand market turbulence, emphasizing the importance of preparation and strategic asset allocation in navigating through volatile periods [24].

Group 1 - A-shares saw a collective rise with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing over 1%, and more than 4,300 stocks rising [1][3] - Gold prices reached a historic high, with precious metals sector rising over 9%, and COMEX gold prices exceeding $3,400 per ounce [2][3] - The first human-like robot half marathon took place, leading to significant interest in the humanoid robot sector, with fund managers predicting a 100-fold growth in the industry over the next three years [12][13] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets returned to over 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.04 trillion yuan, supported by the rise in gold prices [3] - Analysts suggest that Chinese equity assets have valuation advantages compared to major global indices, indicating a favorable medium to long-term investment outlook [3] - Historical analysis shows that gold has experienced two major bull markets, with the first from 1970 to 1980 seeing a cumulative increase of 1,610%, and the second from 2000 to 2012 with a 498% increase [8][9] Group 3 - The third round of the gold bull market, which began in 2018, is believed to be in an accelerated phase, with current gold prices significantly lower than previous bull markets [10] - The robot industry is expected to grow from less than 1 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 100 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a substantial market opportunity [13] - Investment strategies should focus on balanced allocations across sectors, including domestic consumption, AI, semiconductors, and robotics, to mitigate volatility [14][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the A-share market amidst tariff wars, highlighting potential investment opportunities in sectors such as semiconductors, gold, and domestic consumption [3][4][6]. Market Performance - A-shares showed resilience with all three major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by over 1% [3]. - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, with technology sectors like semiconductors and electronic components leading the gains [3]. Tariff Impact - China has raised tariffs on all U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, indicating a strong retaliatory stance against U.S. trade policies [3][4]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to perform strongly under the "self-sufficiency" logic due to the heightened focus on domestic production [3][6]. Gold Market - International gold prices reached a new historical high of $3,249 per ounce, with analysts predicting a potential further increase of 10% [6][9]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to market fears stemming from U.S. tariffs and economic conditions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [9]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as military industry, consumer goods, infrastructure, and domestic substitution as key areas for investment [3][6]. - Specific investment directions include: 1. Domestic consumption sectors due to declining external demand [9][10]. 2. Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in technology and manufacturing [10]. 3. Safe-haven assets like gold and resilient dividend-paying stocks [11]. 4. Agricultural and rare earth sectors as potential beneficiaries of tariff policies [12]. Market Correlation and Future Outlook - The article notes that the stabilization of the market may depend on a decrease in global market correlations, which are currently at historically high levels [13][20]. - In the event of a market reversal, consumer and cyclical sectors are expected to perform relatively stronger [21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn amid global market declines, with the ChiNext index falling over 1% and more than 4,000 stocks declining [1][2][4] Market Performance - A-shares showed resilience compared to significant declines in US and Japanese markets, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 3% and Nikkei 225 over 4% [5] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.2 trillion, with defensive sectors like precious metals, electricity, and banking rising against the trend, while sectors like photovoltaic and brokerage faced significant declines [4] Impact of Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump's upcoming announcement of a large-scale tariff plan, referred to as "liberation day," is expected to create volatility in global markets, affecting A-shares [8] - Analysts predict that the short-term pressure on A-shares will be significant, but the medium to long-term outlook remains resilient due to improved fundamentals and policy support [8][9] Sector Analysis - Industries with high export exposure, such as textiles, home appliances, and automotive parts, are likely to face significant impacts from the tariff plan [9] - Conversely, sectors like agriculture (due to high import dependence) and military (due to geopolitical uncertainties) may benefit from the situation [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, considering increasing holdings in gold and high-dividend sectors while avoiding high-leverage technology stocks [9] - In the medium term, opportunities may arise in AI applications, consumer recovery, and domestic alternatives such as domestic chips and military sectors [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings disclosure period in April is expected to see rapid style rotation in the market, with a focus on performance, dividends, and value [10][13] - The correlation between stock prices and earnings is anticipated to be strongest during this period, making it crucial for investors to pay attention to fundamentals [10][13] Sector Outlook - Three main directions are highlighted for investment based on earnings forecasts: 1. **Cyclical sectors** such as non-ferrous metals and engineering machinery are expected to show strong performance [15] 2. **Technology growth sectors** like SOC, semiconductor equipment, and memory interface chips are projected to have high earnings certainty [16][19] 3. **Dividend sectors** are expected to maintain stable growth, making them suitable for long-term investment [20]