积水成渊，聚沙成塔，做积累的事。 2025年对冲研投公众号累计发布560篇文章， 我们从 中精选出69篇精华文章，希望在您需要的时候，可以帮助到您。 未来每年，我们都会将相关优秀文章汇总整理于此，精彩待续...... 01 宏观经济研究篇 #2025年精选 全球市场颤抖：美联储或将迎来"鹰派"新掌门——凯文·沃什 或许是当前最权威的宏观分析：卡尼达沃斯演讲（文末附全文） 从抢油到夺岛：解析特朗普的"唐罗主义" 如果鲍威尔选择留下来继续硬刚呢？ 大宗商品资源争夺战：东西半球划洋而治？ 5000字深度报告 | "反内卷"与"供给侧"改革底层逻辑是康波大周期！ 供给侧改革2.0来了吗？ 让美元的归美元，美债的归美债 以伊战争中让世界惶恐的霍尔木兹海峡 世界新秩序 关于中国经济的重大转折 对等关税的"表"与"里" Trump就职典礼：布局之招 抓捕马杜罗，特朗普意欲何为？ "十五五"的新提法 关税战风云再起，怎么看？ 中美周期共振or背离？ 02 商品期货研究篇 #2025年精选 当商品交易变成"故事会"：谁在主导价格？ 在贪婪与恐惧中轮回：金银暴跌背后，如何避免成为市场叙事切换时的代价？ 关于农产品对商品牛市的追赶 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Consulate in Sapporo has advised Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan following an incident where a Hong Kong resident was assaulted in Sapporo [8] - As of the end of 2025, H&H International Investment, managed by Duan Yongping, has a total portfolio value of approximately $17.489 billion, equivalent to over 120 billion RMB [13] - International crude oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 4.59% to $65.19 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increasing by 4.35% to $70.35 per barrel [4][20] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.78%, S&P 500 up 0.56%, and Dow Jones up 0.26%, driven by gains in major tech stocks [3] - The market for gold and silver also saw increases, with spot gold rising by 2.08% to $4,979.56 per ounce and spot silver increasing by 5.04% to $77.2335 per ounce [4] - The State Council's Safety Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management have emphasized the need for strict safety regulations regarding fireworks to prevent accidents [6] Group 3 - Several domestic gold jewelry brands have reduced their prices below 1,500 RMB per gram, with Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold both pricing at 1,499 RMB per gram [7] - On February 17, the total cross-regional movement of people in China reached 22.4182 million, a 15.5% increase from the previous day and a 9.4% increase compared to the same day last year [7]

科技股和能源股成为周三美股上行两大推手。"科技七巨头"齐收涨，领涨的亚马逊和英伟达盘中曾涨近3%。英伟达股价得益于Meta新协议同意未来几年部 署数百万英伟达芯片。亚马逊四季度被巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦猛砍持仓77%，但当季被Bill Ackman旗下基金Pershing Square增持65%，股价得以继续脱离 九连跌所创的九个月低谷。 能源股得到原油反弹提振。美国副总统万斯称本周的美伊谈判未能满足美国的关键需求，美国总统特朗普保留对伊动武的权力。媒体周三获悉，特朗普可能 很快对伊朗发动军事行动，且行动规模超出大多数美国人预期，而不是像今年1月抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗那样的突袭。据央视，美官员称美军应在3月中旬 前完成中东军事部署。 周三公布的美国12月新屋开工户数、12月核心资本品订单均超预期增长，1月工业产出创将近一年最大环比增幅，强劲的经济数据暂时压倒AI恐慌，支持三 大美股指早盘齐涨。午盘公布的美联储会议纪要显示，联储的通胀担忧重燃，一些官员支持在利率指引中纳入加息可能，美股涨势消减，道指一度转跌。 主要美股指早盘走高，午盘美联储会议纪要公布后加速回吐涨幅，道指短线转跌 美联储会议纪要凸显联储内部利率 ...

2月17日，大年初一，郑州市各大商场喜气洋洋，浓浓的新年气息扑面而来。在金水区正弘城商场内，一个孩 子兴奋地拉着爷爷的手，奔向陪伴机器人展柜前："爷爷，你看这个机器人会讲故事！" 记者从京东相关部门了解到，2025年京东平台智能产品销售总量同比增长超2倍，智能机器人、智能眼镜等产 品销量同比分别增长超3倍和13倍。今年以来，京东自营机器人租赁业务成交额增长迅速，多款机器人、机器 小朋友在与宇树科技机器人互动。 受访者供图 狗热门机型一机难求，目前订单已排到3月中旬。 "这不只是一台机器，它更像一个'数字家人'。"有网友这样评价。行业人士认为，从长远看，机器人正从功 能型工具演进为具备情感联结的生活伙伴。 有传统年味，也有"赛博年货"，智能产品正逐渐融入人们的新春生活，中原家庭的春节消费清单也正在被科 技重新定义。（记者 李鹏） 不远处的国货品牌手机专柜前，销售人员热情介绍着AI拍照功能："这款手机特别适合春节聚会，能自动识别 人脸、优化合影效果。"如今的最新款手机已不仅仅是常规的硬件升级，更像是一个不断进化的AI智能体。 2026年农历新春，河南的消费市场悄然发生了变化。曾经，人们年货清单上主要是瓜果糖茶；如 ...

科技股和能源股成为周三美股上行两大推手。"科技七巨头"齐收涨，领涨的亚马逊和英伟达盘中曾涨近3%。英伟达股价得益于Meta新协议同意未来几年部 署数百万英伟达芯片。亚马逊四季度被巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦猛砍持仓77%，但当季被Bill Ackman旗下基金Pershing Square增持65%，股价得以继续脱离 九连跌所创的九个月低谷。 能源股得到原油反弹提振。美国副总统万斯称本周的美伊谈判未能满足美国的关键需求，美国总统特朗普保留对伊动武的权力。媒体周三获悉，特朗普可能 很快对伊朗发动军事行动，且行动规模超出大多数美国人预期，而不是像今年1月抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗那样的突袭。据央视，美官员称美军应在3月中旬 前完成中东军事部署。 周三公布的美国12月新屋开工户数、12月核心资本品订单均超预期增长，1月工业产出创将近一年最大环比增幅，强劲的经济数据暂时压倒AI恐慌，支持三 大美股指早盘齐涨。午盘公布的显示，联储的通胀担忧重燃，一些官员支持在利率指引中纳入加息可能，美股涨势消减，道指一度转跌。 主要美股指早盘走高，午盘美联储会议纪要公布后加速回吐涨幅，道指短线转跌 美联储会议纪要凸显联储内部利率决策分歧，更谨 ...

Remitly Global (NasdaqGS:RELY) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 18, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsDavid Beckel - VP of Investor RelationsMatt Oppenheimer - Co-founder and CEOSebastian Gunningham - CEOVikas Mehta - CFOConference Call ParticipantsAditya Buddhavarapu - VP and Equity Research AnalystAlex Markgraff - VP and Equity Research AnalystDarrin Peller - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystRamsey El-Assal - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystTien-Tsin Huang - Managin ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenue reached $69 million, representing a 7% year-over-year growth, marking the highest quarterly revenue in the company's history [10][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $8 million, an 11% margin, reflecting a 6-point year-over-year improvement [12] - The company achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025, 12 months ahead of schedule, transitioning from an adjusted EBITDA loss of over $70 million two years ago [7][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Self-serve revenue grew 32% year-over-year and comprised roughly 60% of total revenue in Q4 [12] - Average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 13% year-over-year, with growth in both customer count and average customer spend [11] - The platform's weekly active users (WAU) was 21 million, reflecting a 3% sequential decline, which aligns with the company's focus on engagement quality over volume [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company operates within a verified, address-based neighborhood graph covering 350,000 neighborhoods and over 105 million verified neighbors, representing roughly one in three U.S. households [17] - Advertiser retention remains solid, with improved outcomes driven by better ad performance rather than increased ad load [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to combine the strength of its trusted community with AI to enhance local information relevance, increasing utility for neighbors and economic value for local businesses [5][20] - The strategy emphasizes long-term network health, capital efficiency, and durable unit economics over short-term growth [5][19] - The company is focused on enhancing its product experience to prioritize decision-oriented content, such as recommendations and local news [4][5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term opportunity, highlighting that the strategy is gaining traction and translating into material progress [6][8] - The outlook for Q1 2026 anticipates revenue between $57 million and $59 million, reflecting normal seasonal trends, with a focus on optimizing user experience and limiting new user acquisition efforts [15][16] - For the full year 2026, the company expects continued revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-single-digit range [16] Other Important Information - The company ended 2025 with $405 million in cash and no debt, emphasizing the importance of preserving liquidity for operational flexibility [13][55] - The management is committed to ongoing improvements in notifications and user engagement, focusing on relevance to enhance long-term user value [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on product changes resonating with users? - Management noted a shift towards a utility-centric product driven by intent, with improvements in recommendations and notifications contributing to deeper engagement [25] Question: Any updates on advertiser spending trends? - Management indicated strong demand across all advertiser segments, with no specific verticals significantly outperforming others [29] Question: What is the status of the programmatic ad stack for large advertisers? - Management acknowledged the need for continued investment in programmatic formats to meet large advertisers' demands, expecting increased demand as improvements are rolled out [34] Question: How is the rollout of recommendations evolving? - Management emphasized that enhancing recommendations is a major priority for 2026, focusing on real neighbor-driven recommendations rather than automated systems [37] Question: What is the company's philosophy on cash management? - The company views its cash reserves as a strategic asset, evaluating all options for cash use to ensure they exceed return on investment thresholds [55]

Figma (NYSE:FIG) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 18, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsArjun Bhatia - Co-Group Head–Technology, Media, and CommunicationBrendan Mulligan - General Counsel and Corporate SecretaryDylan Field - Co-Founder and CEOGabriela Borges - Managing Director in Software Equity ResearchJack McShane - Equity Research AssociatePraveer Melwani - CFORishi Jaluria - Managing Director of Software Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsAlex Zukin - Senior Analyst for Enterprise SoftwareBill ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $304 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 40% [5][25] - For the full year 2025, total revenue reached $1.056 billion, up 41% year-over-year [25][29] - The non-GAAP operating margin for Q4 was 14%, with adjusted free cash flow margin at 13% [5][32] - The company ended the year with $1.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities [5][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The net dollar retention rate for customers with more than $10,000 in ARR increased to 136%, up five percentage points quarter-over-quarter [5][26] - Weekly active users of Figma Make grew over 70% quarter-over-quarter, with over 50% of paid customers spending more than $100,000 in ARR using it weekly [12][25] - The company added 951 net customers spending more than $10,000 in ARR in Q4, and 143 net customers spending more than $100,000 in ARR, a 46% year-over-year growth [26][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue grew 45% year-over-year, with international users representing approximately 85% of monthly active users and accounting for 54% of revenue in Q4 [28][29] - The company launched in India in November 2025, indicating ongoing international expansion efforts [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in AI-native workflows and enhancing product capabilities to support customer adaptation to new working methods [33][34] - Figma aims to unify its product surfaces, particularly between Figma Make and Figma Design, to enhance user experience and drive adoption [62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term cash-generating profile of the business despite a decline in adjusted free cash flow due to investments in infrastructure and AI [32][34] - The company anticipates revenue for Q1 2026 to be in the range of $315 million to $317 million, implying 38% growth at the midpoint [34] Other Important Information - The company acquired Weavy, enhancing its AI image, video, animation, and motion generation capabilities [20][24] - Stock-based compensation was elevated in 2025 due to various factors, but the company expects improvement as revenue scales [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on UI and UX with Emerging Agentic Layers - Management believes that while agents will take on more tasks, the need for human-readable visual interfaces will remain crucial, emphasizing the importance of design [39][40] Question: 2026 Guidance and Credit Consumption Monetization - Management indicated that guidance is based on observed seat adoption behavior and usage trends, with expectations for refinement as new features are introduced [42][43] Question: User Types and Figma Make Adoption - The company is seeing new user types, including product managers, engaging with Figma Make, which could lead to seat expansion [48][49] Question: Pricing and Revenue Impact - Management explained that the pricing changes implemented last year will continue to contribute to revenue growth, with a bell curve effect expected [54][57] Question: Competition in Prototyping Space - Management noted that over 80% of full seat users of Figma Make also use Figma Design, indicating a strong integration and potential for unifying product surfaces [61][62]

Remitly Global (NasdaqGS:RELY) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 18, 2026 05:00 PM ET Speaker5Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Remitly fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raise ...