研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 时间：2025年7月21日 冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观方面，美国CPI、PPI数据小幅超预期，通胀数据表现温和，目前美联储降息的决定不确定性高，美联储未来主席人选的博弈，7月降息 | | | | | 的可能性依然迷茫，但目前市场普遍认为7月降息的概率依然偏低，美元本周走强，压制有色市场的行情价格。8月1日，铜关税或正式落地， | | | | | 据外媒报道，此次铜关税除精炼铜纳入范围外，铜材或同样征收铜关税。7月18日，国新办发布会表示，下一步将印发新一轮有色金属稳增 | | | | | 长的方案，注重供需两端协同发力。供给方面，截至2025年7月18日，现货粗炼费为-43.16美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31美分/磅。冶炼 | | | | | 厂粗炼费、精炼费本 ...

| 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 日涨跌(%) | 笔数 | 环比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600774 | 汉商集团 | 1.01 | 71643 | 4471.98 | | 600829 | 人民同泰 | 9.96 | 44817 | 1372.79 | | 000400 | 许继电气 | 9.98 | 116419 | 800.94 | | 300712 | 永福股份 | 11.68 | 28216 | 737.52 | | 605118 | 力鼎光电 | 6.33 | 51714 | 722.29 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 1.23 | 66471 | 720.33 | | 002092 | 中泰化学 | 4.35 | 42609 | 667.18 | | 002652 | 扬子新材 | -4.97 | 41295 | 666.99 | | 300823 | 建科智能 | 11.71 | 25196 | 666.07 | | 002457 | 青龙管业 | 10.00 | 45180 | 649.75 | 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至7月 ...

港股市场迎来中期业绩预告密集披露期。 Wind数据显示，截至7月18日，已有近120家港股上市公司发布业绩预告，其中，37家公司业绩预增，14 家公司业绩扭亏，9家公司业绩略增。整体来看，目前港股市场中期业绩预喜率为50.85%。 泡泡玛特等预计业绩翻倍 在目前已发布业绩预告的公司中，泡泡玛特、华宝国际、锅圈等多家公司预计业绩最大增长幅度翻倍。 泡泡玛特的业绩预告显示，公司预计今年上半年收入增长不低于200%；预计公司盈利较去年同期增长不 低于350%。 泡泡玛特表示，业绩波动主要归于以下原因：泡泡玛特品牌及旗下IP在全球的认可度进一步提升，多样化 的产品品类促进公司收入增长，公司各区域市场收入均实现持续高速增长；海外收入占比持续提升，收入 结构的变化对毛利、盈利均产生积极影响。同时，规模效应使盈利显著增加；持续优化产品成本，加强费 用管控，提升盈利能力。 在近期发布业绩预告的港股上市公司中，也有公司预计中期业绩减少。 康宁医院近日发布盈利预警公告，预计今年上半年归属于母公司股东的净利润，将较2024年同期下降约 25%—35%。 公司表示，业绩变动主要是由于住院平均每床日总开支下降导致营业收入减少所致。 康 ...

Report Title - "Domestic 'Anti-Involution' Drives Market Sentiment Upward - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.21" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Copper - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [3]. - Fundamental: Although LME copper inventories have increased slightly, they remain at historical lows. Demand has weakened significantly as prices rebounded, showing a phased supply - demand weakness due to the traditional off - season [3]. - Overall: The impact of tariff shocks on copper prices is gradually digested. After prices stabilize, a bullish approach is recommended [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [5]. - Fundamental: With the release of supply increments and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [5]. - Overall: The improvement of domestic macro expectations significantly boosts industrial products. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [5]. Alumina - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [7]. - Fundamental: In the week of July 17, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 500,000 tons/year to 89.07 million tons/year, and the weekly inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by about 25,800 tons, putting some pressure on spot prices [7]. - Overall: The expectation of supply - side reform and the decline of warehouse receipts to a low level. Alumina breaks through the low - level oscillation range upwards, and a bullish approach is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the weekly cumulative price change statistics of various metals from July 14 - 18 [14]. - **Weekly News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals. In the first half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry had positive growth in production, revenue, and profit, and its green - low - carbon level improved significantly. Chile will discuss the impact of US copper tariffs. LME's 8 Hong Kong approved warehousing facilities started operation. Kazakhstan plans to restrict the export of certain key products and cancel the export tariff on gallium [15]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Domestic**: In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Exports supported industrial production, but real estate investment declined further [19]. - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. After the CPI release, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly [22]. 3. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC remained weak [28]. - **Futures Market**: COMEX's net long positions increased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [35]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons compared to Monday, and were 231,800 tons lower than the same period last year [41]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium widened [44]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [48]. - **Inventory**: The report provided data on electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories, as well as LME and SHFE aluminum inventories [50]. - **Downstream开工**: As of July 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8%. Different sectors had different trends, and SMM expected the weekly operating rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week [52]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 17, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The industry faced cost and demand challenges, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report analyzed the relationship between the price of electrolytic aluminum and the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [60]. 5. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Futures Market**: Inventory futures continued to decline [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changed little, with some areas having tight supply due to maintenance. Demand increased as some electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production or transferred capacity [70]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of July 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,995.43 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 193.15 yuan/ton [71].

美国财长贝森特：在人工智能发展推动下，生产力即将迎来爆发式增长。 ...

威瑞森电信在收窄财年 每股收益预测后，盘前股价涨超4%。威瑞森预计2025财年调整后每股收益增长 1.0% 至3.0%；调整后息税折旧摊销前利润增长2.5%至3.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mankun Technology, expects significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by industry opportunities and operational improvements [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 60 million and 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.98% to 79.64% compared to 38.9673 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 50 million and 60 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.89% to 87.07% from 32.0737 million yuan [1] Operational Strategy - The company is focusing on seizing industry development opportunities, steadily increasing production capacity, and continuously optimizing product and customer structures [1] - These strategic initiatives are contributing to the rise in both revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1]

张坤有句名言：一个基金经理在从业历史上，至少应该敢于对抗市场两三次。 2025年2季度，或许是他再次"对抗"市场的时候。 当季度，市场上演"V"型反转，各板块差距迅速拉大。从风格指数看，全季度唯有金融股和港股"二枝独秀"，其余宽基和行业指数多数表现平平。 以下文章来源于资本深潜号 ，作者资本深潜号 资本深潜号 . 专注资本背后的硬核故事 同期，张坤管理的四个基金中有三个基金（易方达优质企业、易方达蓝筹、易方达优质精选）出现阶段性落后基准7.5个百分点以上的情况，唯有主投境外的易 方达亚洲精选取得明显收益，并与基准基本"打平"。 这样的关键时刻，张坤会做何应对？ 答案是—— 再次"旗帜鲜明"的坚持己见，并与市场共识"拉开距离"。 当季度，张坤至少从三个层面坚持了自己的看法（根据季报显示）。 在宏观经济层面 ，张坤认为，市场（投资者）将近两年中国经济的情况线性外推，导致长期国债利率维持在与经济潜力不匹配的水平。对此张坤明确表 示："我们并不认同"。 在上市公司业绩层面， 张坤认为，我国人均 GDP 仍然是发展中国家水平，未来只要充分发挥市场经济的力量和个体的主观能动性，叠加科技进步，有望带动 经济增长并反映到优质 ...

基金管理人在二季报中表示，2025 年二季度市场整体上涨，军工、银行、通信、传媒等行业涨幅居前，食品饮料、家电、钢铁、建材等行业跌幅居前。红 利指数（000015）二季度下跌 0.1%，配置方面，我们红利、医药、消费类行业持仓较多，二季度 A 份额净值上涨 4.05%。 AI基金光大保德信红利混合A（360005）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润1048.46万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0677元。报告期内，基金净值增 长率为4.05%，截至二季度末，基金规模为2.69亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至7月18日，单位净值为1.839元。基金经理是徐晓杰，目前管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至7月18日，光大保德 信健康优加混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达41.17%；光大保德信红利混合A最低，为6.53%。 截至7月18日，光大保德信红利混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为8.50%，位于同类可比基金402/607；近半年复权单位净值增长率为9.87%，位于同类可 比基金348/607；近一年复权单位净值增长率为6.53%，位于同类可比基金521/601；近三年复权单位净值增长率为 ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/7/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 71,280.00 | +1320.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -146,856.00 | -4392.00↓ +380.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 381,185.00 | +3880.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 1,260.00 | | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 10,239.00 | 0.00 | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 68,000.00 | +1350.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 66,350.00 | +1300.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -3,280.00 | +30.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 708.00 | +10.00↑ 磷锂铝 ...