本文来自格隆汇专栏：中金研究，作者：李刘阳等 图表1：汇率预测表 (上段为中枢、下段为区间) 一个月中枢：6.92 ► 1月：人民币对美元继续保持持续的升值，对一篮子货币则明显走跌，CFETS指数较12月底贬逾1%，中间价整体保持较快的升值速率。从外部环境来 看，美元指数先升后跌，并在月末再度回升，全月下跌较多，带动非美货币的普遍升值。内部因素来看，人民币汇率升值预期的稳固及季节性的延续带动 汇率稳步升值，中间价亦保持了较快且稳定的升值速率，不过大行以一定力度买入美元，对汇率的升值节奏起到了一定的限制作用。 2月重要事件展望 新提名的美联储主席沃什的政策态度1月末，随着前美联储委员凯文沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，美元在月末强劲反弹并暂时遏止住了1月中达沃斯以 来的连续下跌势头。沃什被认为是美联储主席候选人中相对最鹰派的一个，他过去主张美联储缩减资产负债表，并反对过量化宽松。白宫选择他至少在短 期内减少了市场对于美联储独立性的疑虑，并为美元的信用提供了支持。在2月份，他将会去国会听证以求提名获得认可。我们可能会看到他继续强调美 联储的独立性等原则。这可能会给美元带来进一步的利好。不过，我们并不认为沃什会比鲍威 ...

申万宏源研报称，北京时间1月30日，特朗普提名沃什为下届美联储主席，金融市场大幅波动。但是， 就降息预期来说，沃什提名事件、1月美联储FOMC例会对其冲击并不大，市场仍预期2026年美联储降 息2次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown signs of volatility and correction after a rapid increase in prices, with gold rising from $5000 to $5500 per ounce in just three days, followed by a sharp decline below $5000 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Despite recent volatility, optimistic views remain strong, with UBS raising its gold price target to $6200 per ounce, while Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs forecast prices between $5400 and $6000 [1] - The bullish outlook is supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, strong demand from central banks and ETFs, and a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected net demand increase of approximately 965 tons from 2022 to 2026, while supply is expected to rise by only about 479 tons [1] Group 2: Cautionary Perspectives - Rational viewpoints warn that current gold prices may contain speculative bubbles, with a significant portion of the recent price surge attributed to leveraged speculation [2] - The core driver of the recent gold price increase, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, is believed to be nearing its peak, with 2026 potentially being a critical turning point for market dynamics [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market has experienced significant fluctuations, with a monthly increase of approximately $1300, followed by a rapid decline of nearly $800 in the last two trading days of the month [3] - A long upper shadow on the monthly candlestick indicates a technical need for correction, with key support levels identified at approximately $4550 and $4310, where a breakdown could lead to further declines of up to $1000 [3] - Current market sentiment shows significant divergence, suggesting a cautious approach is advisable, with key resistance levels at $5030, $5150, $5240, and $5370, and support levels at $4700, $4600, and $4310 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop, marking the largest decline in over 40 years, primarily due to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding delayed interest rate cuts and personnel changes, leading to panic selling and profit-taking [3][4]. Price Movements - On January 31, the spot gold price closed at $4,894.49 per ounce, with a decline exceeding 9%, and briefly fell below $4,700. Silver closed at $84.63 per ounce, dropping nearly 27%, with a low of $77.7 [3]. - Domestic gold prices also saw a substantial decrease, with the price at 1,070 yuan per gram, reflecting a nearly 10% drop. Many gold jewelry brands saw prices revert to the 1,500-1,600 yuan range, down from previous highs above 1,700 yuan per gram [3]. Market Analysis - According to Song Xiangqing, Vice President of the China Commercial Economic Association, the historical drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's signals and personnel changes that have strengthened the dollar and high-interest rate expectations, undermining the safe-haven value of precious metals [4]. - The previous speculative surge in gold and silver prices, coupled with increased margin requirements from exchanges, triggered a cycle of panic selling as leveraged positions were liquidated [4]. - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by increased investment. The extreme scenario forecasts for gold are set at $7,200 per ounce for bullish and $4,600 per ounce for bearish scenarios [4]. Investment Recommendations - The overall outlook for gold prices in 2026 suggests a high-level fluctuation with upward movement, although short-term pullback pressures exist. Long-term support is anticipated from continued central bank purchases, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and geopolitical risk demand [4]. - Investors are advised to prefer gold ETFs or physical gold bars, avoiding high prices and considering gradual accumulation during pullbacks [4].

2026年1月29日，黄金市场彻底疯了。 就在这一天，国际金价像坐上了火箭，伦敦金现货价格收盘时冲到了5286.28美元一盎司，一天之内暴涨了115.04美 元，涨幅高达2.22%。 这还不是全部，国内金价同样疯狂，黄金T D报1186.85元一克，沪金期货更是冲到了1191.66元一克。 如果你去金店看看，老凤祥的 足金价格已经挂到了1620元一克。 从年初到现在，金价已经涨了超过22%。 所有人都在问同一个问题：这黄金，到底怎么了？ 你可能觉得这价格高得离谱，但市场告诉你，这还不是终点。 就在几天前的1月28日，现货黄金价格才刚刚首次突破了5200美元大关，最高报5233.93美元。 短短一天，它又往上窜了一大截。 更让人难以置信的是，回顾2025年，黄金全年涨幅超过64%，创下历史新高的次数高达50多次。 而进入2026年，这股势 头不仅没停，反而更猛了。 1月1日以来，金价从4400美元一路狂飙，冲破4500、4600、4700美元关口，开年累计涨幅轻松超过8%。 到了1月20日，现货黄 金价格一度涨至4701.48美元。 这感觉就像黄金彻底摆脱了地心引力。 金价这么疯涨，背后可不是一个原因那么简单。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Trump's tolerance for a weaker dollar, and a surge in global risk aversion have accelerated the purchase of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, driving prices to new historical highs [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [2][6]. - Trump's recent announcements regarding tariffs on multiple countries have pushed investors away from dollar assets, increasing demand for gold [2][6]. - Gold prices surged over $1200 in January, but profit-taking led to a sharp decline of nearly $400 during trading on Thursday [2][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold's price reached a new high of $5596 before experiencing a significant drop to $5105, but it rebounded to close above $5400, indicating strong buying interest [1][5][6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $5370 and $5300, while resistance levels are at $5470 and $5550 [3][7]. - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average and MACD suggest a bullish trend, although the KDJ indicator indicates a potential need for adjustment [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so it's advisable to participate with caution. In the medium - to - long - term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of the supply end and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Copper - In the short term, if the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating supply pressure there; if it remains narrow, copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range with limited upward potential, and if it widens, copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually under the constraint of capital expenditure on the supply side, but current prices are suppressing downstream demand, and price fluctuations may intensify [3]. Zinc - The weakening of the US dollar index supports zinc prices. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc is easing. The demand side has shown a significant recovery in the processing industry's operating rate after the price correction, and the terminal orders are stable. The global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Short - term prices have limited downside space, and it is recommended to focus on the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main contract supported at around 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [5]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has risen following commodities like coking coal. In January, both supply and demand have weakened slightly, with a slight inventory build - up. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction situation of industrial silicon. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, with the upper limit pressured by the opening of the arbitrage window and the lower limit supported by costs [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, but downstream components and battery cells are still reducing production despite price increases and increased exports due to weak domestic demand and the approaching Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon is low, and the price is under pressure. In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the production reduction process and downstream demand recovery [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is affected by the overall risk - preference recovery in the commodity market and supply - contraction expectations, but the high - inventory pressure in the domestic spot market still suppresses prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum market has shown a high - level breakthrough, but the domestic fundamentals are under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of a high - level correction in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has followed the rise in aluminum prices but lacks financial attributes and has poor downstream acceptance. The cost is the main driving factor, and the fundamentals show a typical seasonal supply - and - demand weakness. It is expected that the ADC12 price will continue to oscillate in the high - level range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton in the short term [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is supported by the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector and the smelters' hoarding mentality due to the expected tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is driven by the strong commodity sentiment and the improvement in fundamentals due to steel - mill production cuts. In the short term, it is expected to adjust in a strong - oscillation pattern, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 15,200 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the news from the ore end and the dynamics of steel mills [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a weak adjustment. Although the fundamentals show certain inventory - reduction resilience during the off - season, which supports prices, there may be a short - term decline adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose 0.46% to 438,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open discount dropped 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The import loss of tin increased 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.88 [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the import of tin ore increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, and the production of SMM refined tin decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons [2]. - The import of refined tin increased 29.54% to 1,548 tons, and the export increased 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory increased 1.79% to 9,720 tons, and social inventory increased 4.94% to 10,678 tons [2]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 2.48% to 104,185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased 70 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [3]. - The import loss of copper decreased to - 106 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.77 [3]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons [3]. Inventory - The domestic social inventory of copper decreased 2.24% to 32.28 million tons, and the SHFE inventory increased 5.82% to 22.59 million tons [3]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.20% to 25,290 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. - The import loss of zinc increased to - 2,443 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly to 7.48 [5]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [5]. Inventory - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased 1.35% to 11.72 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.57% to 11 million tons [5]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 33.67% to 325 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons [7]. Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased 0.36% to 55.40 million tons, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased 2.89% to 6.83 million tons [7]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm decreased 6.13% to 1.53 yuan/piece [8]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of polysilicon increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and the import increased 77.50% to 0.19 million tons [8]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.47% to 24,860 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased 20 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina increased 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased 3.97% to 378.10 million tons [9]. Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased 5.25% to 78.20 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.45% to 49.8 million tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 1.66% to 24,550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased 10.48% to 2,719 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 2.11% to 4.64 million tons, and the daily inventory in Foshan increased 0.33% to 30,343 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.30% to 148,000 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 6.82% to 7,050 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese refined nickel increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and the import increased 84.63% to 23,394 tons [12]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased 5.43% to 50,794 tons, and social inventory increased 4.38% to 66,294 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased 58.54% to 82 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased 26.72% to 131.59 million tons, and the import increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [14]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 0.82% to 45.77 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse - receipt inventory increased 9.90% to 4.36 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.33% to 168,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.37% to 164,500 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [17]. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [17].

截至北京时间1月30日亚市尾盘，美元指数延续阶段性弱势运行，最新报价围绕96.00一线窄幅波动，盘 中最低触及95.85，创下2022年2月以来的阶段性新低。2026年开年至今，美元指数自99.30附近高位持续 回落，累计跌幅已超3%，空头趋势明朗，市场对美元的悲观预期持续发酵，弱势格局成为当前汇市核 心特征。 RSI相对强弱指标：日线RSI持续处于30以下的超卖区间，短期存在技术性修复的反弹需求，但指标尚 未出现底背离形态，超卖并不意味着趋势反转，更多是下跌过程中的阶段性休整，反弹高度大概率受 限。 MACD指标：MACD快慢线持续运行于零轴下方，死叉状态维持，空头能量柱虽未显著放大，但始终保 持正值，说明下行动能仍在持续释放，暂无明显的多头反攻信号。 布林带指标：价格紧贴布林带下轨运行，布林带开口逐步扩大，表明市场波动加剧，空头趋势的延续性 较强，短期反弹大概率受制于布林带中轨(96.80附近)。 非美货币：欧元、英镑、日元等G10主流非美货币同步走强，欧元兑美元回升至1.10上方，英镑兑美元 站稳1.28关口，商品货币(加元、澳元)受益于大宗商品上涨，对美元升值幅度更为显著，直接拖累美元 指数表现。 美 ...

张尧浠：金价史诗级波动洗盘、仍视为短期调整多头机会 上交易日周四(1月29日)：国际黄金黄金创下史上最大单日振幅(近500美金)，先是一度最高冲到接近5600美元，之后又一度跌至5100美元附近；最终又触 底回升，振幅缩减，小幅收跌。走势上，仍维持在上升趋势内，多头仍具前景。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5421.64美元/盎司，先行走强，半小时左右即录得日内高点5595.97美元，随后，有所回撤，日内整体保持在5470-5560美元 区间内震荡盘整，到美盘23点时段，空头发力，又在半小时左右迅速坠落至5104.73美元日低点，最后又触底回升，于盘尾收于5382.69美元，日振幅 494.24美元，收跌38.95美元，跌幅0.72%。 影响上，亚市早盘先行延续周三的强势多头动力，以及地缘局势的升级推动而走强触及高点，之后因动力有限，以及美联储决议对于降息前景的减弱，而 有所获利了结并陷入横盘震荡； 到美盘时段，由于鲍威尔言论后续将关注数据指引，其公布的初请及工厂订单，批发销售等数据的向好，直接成了引发了市场的大幅获利了结的导火索， 并且，美股市场在金价之前暴跌，也引发了投资者利用贵金属的获利来弥补股票等其他资产 ...

国际局势不稳，黄金大涨尚且可以理解。不承担货币责任，扛不起通胀属性的白银也一飞冲天。1月29 日，现货白银日内涨约2.85%，站上纪录新高120美元/盎司，更有人看涨到160美元/盎司。 还有铜，进入2026年，上海期货交易所的铜期货价格一度突破每吨10万元大关。 万万没想到，商业航天之后，黄金、白银等有色又硬气起来了，力压AI应用等，成了新一轮的主线。 2025以来，银行、算力、光模块、芯片......主线换了一批又一批人。你永远猜不到，下一个主线是什 么？ 黄金、白银带头 太猛了！黄金现货从5200美元/盎司一度飙升至5600美元/盎司，多次创纪录，两日涨幅达400美元。 在黄金这条链条上，从期货到现货，再传导到国内市场，金饰品牌纷纷涨价，相关公司股价也大涨特 涨。 这三个算涨得最猛的可谓交替上涨。三者有什么共同性？ 在元素周期表中，它们都属于IB族金属（铜副族），都具有良好的延展性，可以改造成你想要的任何形 象，尤其是黄金。马斯克说过：金银天然是货币。历史上，金银确实都充当过货币的用途，直到今天， 黄金与货币也很难完全割裂。 这背后是宏观环境、供需格局与资金情绪的多重力量共振。 第一，是美元信用弱化与美 ...