北京时间1月6日15:34，金投网行情中心数据显示：沪银主力最新报19452.00元/千克，日内涨幅达 7.06%，今日开盘价18126.00元/千克，最高价19714.00元/千克，最低价18082.00元/千克，成交量 1929943.00手，上一交易日沪银主力收盘于18169.00，基差为311。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 外盘纽约期银突破79美元/盎司，日内涨超3%，COMEX白银价格最新报78.43美元/盎司，日内涨幅达 2.51%，上一交易日收盘于76.51美元/盎司，今日开盘价76.55美元/盎司，最高价79.29美元/盎司，最低 价75.70美元/盎司，成交量29881.00手。 沪银主力日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看空信号，RSI释放看空信号。 comex白银日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看空信号，RSI释放看空信号。 受美联储官员鸽派言论提振降息预期，以及委内瑞拉局势紧张推升避险需求的双重影响，今日白银价格 短线持续走高，沪银主力合约日内一度暴涨8.00%，报19630.00元/千克。 市场分析认为，美联储官员关于通胀回落和失业率风险的言论，增加了市场 ...

1月6日，周二（北京时间1月6日）亚市早盘，现货黄金先跌后涨，目前交投于4460美元附近。本周一开 盘，现货黄金价格暴涨至一周高点，白银、铂金等贵金属也全线走强；主因是美国空袭委内瑞拉并抓获 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后，避险需求激增。在美国对委内瑞拉发动打击后，地缘政治紧张局势升级，推 动避险资金流入黄金。此外，受疲软的美国ISM制造业PMI影响，黄金价格也随之走高。 基本消息面： 美股周一全线上涨，市场成交量较大，美国各交易所累计成交191亿股，高于过去20个交易日的日均成 交量159亿股。道琼斯工业指数创下历史新高这主要得益于金融和能源板块的强劲表现，而能源股的上 涨与美国近期对委内瑞拉采取的军事行动直接相关。标普500能源指数上涨2.7%，达到2025年3月以来 的最高水平，其中埃克森美孚和雪佛龙股价均大幅上涨。金融板块同样表现抢眼，标普500金融指数大 涨2.2%，高盛和摩根大通涨幅均超过3%，并创下股价新高。 地缘政治上。特朗普政策不确定性，如果美委的事情就这样结束了，那么下一步就是伊朗；中东方面， 前期伊朗自身问题也很大，一众小弟全被放弃，导致集体磨平；美国总统特朗普还暗示可能进一步采取 行动（如格陵 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to lower interest rate cut expectations, impacting market sentiment positively[2] - The market anticipates a pause in rate cuts during the January FOMC meeting, with a focus on maintaining the current target rate[11] - The 1-year Treasury yield decreased from 1.402% to 1.337%, a drop of 6 basis points, indicating a shift in short-term interest rate expectations[2] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3888.6 to 3968.84, a 2.06% increase, driven by improved macro policies and a significant rise in the construction PMI[2] - The growth style index increased from 8331.69 to 8741.04, reflecting a 4.91% rise, supported by favorable liquidity conditions[2] - The construction PMI improved significantly, indicating a potential stabilization in investment and economic recovery[17] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Insights - Brent crude oil prices fell from $58.55 to $57.42 per barrel, a decrease of 1.93%, suggesting a bearish outlook on oil due to supply dynamics[2] - The US dollar index decreased from 99.44 to 98.27, a drop of 1.18%, reflecting a slight weakening of the dollar amid lower rate cut expectations[2] - The COMEX copper price increased from $5.19 to $5.649 per pound, an 8.84% rise, indicating strong demand amid supply constraints[2]

今日黄金价格继续上涨，铂金价格已突破900大关，就拿周大福黄金来说，今日铂金饰品价格上涨36元/克，报905元/克。如 需了解其他品牌铂金价格，欢迎留言，我们将及时汇总更新。 今日国内品牌金店金价迎来全线飘红，在昨日上涨基础上再度调高报价。具体来看，周大福、潮宏基、周大生黄金价格均 为1390元/克，并列榜首。昨日最低的上海中国黄金经历强劲补涨后，报1360元/克，已脱离最低位。今日市场最高价与最低 价（菜百报1358元/克）之间的价差已缩小至32元/克，市场整体价格区间明显上移。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月6日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1389 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1388 | 元/克 | 12 | 派 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1390 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1375 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1388 | 元 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.06 地缘局势增加供给不确定性 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 2026年1月5日，国际金价单日大涨近3%至4451.50美元/盎司，白银期货同步暴涨7.94%至76.657美元/盎 司，地缘冲突激化与美联储降息预期共振触发市场避险需求集中释放。 一、核心价格动态 关键数据 桶），动荡加剧原油供应不确定性。 货币政策预期转向 市场押注美联储2026年将降息约50基点，美元指数跌至三年低位，持有无息黄金的机会成本降低。全球 央行连续13个月增持黄金（2025年中国央行增持7412万盎司），实物买盘形成价格托底。 白银供需结构特殊性 白银兼具金融与工业属性： 黄金：纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金期货收盘价4451.50美元/盎司，单日涨幅2.82%；现货黄金突破 4400美元关口，日内最高触及4422美元/盎司。 白银：COMEX白银期货暴涨7.94%至76.657美元/盎司，单日涨幅创近期新高。 国内市场传导：周大福、老庙黄金等品牌足金首饰报价单日跳涨12-18元/克，突破1389元/克，部分定价 类金饰（如转运珠）涨幅达200-1500元。 二、上涨核心动因 地缘政治风险激化避险情绪 美国1月3日对委内瑞拉发起军 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制 | | | 造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 47.9，已连续 10 个月低于 50。新订单已连续第四个月收 | | | 缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11 个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面， | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 2775 吨至 142550 吨；Comex 库存增加 3204 吨至 456657 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单增加 8507 吨至 90282 吨，BC 铜维持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端 | | | 订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不 | | | 确定性风险，操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利 | | | 用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机会分批逢低布局。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2773 元/吨，跌幅 0.72%，持仓减仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded strongly, trading around $4467.97 per ounce, supported by stability above $4400 and trading above the 50-day moving average, indicating a dominant short-term upward trend [1] Economic Data - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI remains at 51.8, indicating continued expansion, while the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.2 in November, signaling ongoing contraction in business activity [1] - These economic indicators have not significantly impacted dovish expectations, allowing the dollar to retreat from a near four-week high, which is favorable for non-yielding gold [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs in March and potentially cut rates again by the end of the year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks include U.S. military actions in Venezuela, political tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, unrest in Iran, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices faced resistance and a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4230, with further support at the 30-week moving average around $4000 [2] - Despite the potential for a pullback, the upward trend remains intact, with the price maintaining above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook [2] - Daily charts show a breakout above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the congestion area of $4425-$4450, which could be a key trigger for bullish momentum [2] - The MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating improved momentum, while the RSI is at 68, suggesting strong upward momentum, with a breakthrough above 70 reinforcing bullish arguments [2] - The 100-hour SMA at $4373.28 is expected to provide dynamic support, indicating a positive short-term bias [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with some considered bullish (2) and others bearish (2). Bullish varieties include multiple stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, silver, copper, lithium carbonate, cotton, sugar, corn; bearish varieties include crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The global economy shows signs of change, with the US economy facing challenges such as a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, while China's economy has positive signals like the improvement of manufacturing PMI. The Fed's expected interest - rate cuts and global easing monetary policies will have an impact on various asset prices [1][11]. - **Asset Price Trends**: Precious metals are expected to have a long - term upward trend due to factors such as inflation relief, weak employment, and supply - demand gaps. Copper prices are at a high level, affected by factors such as supply shortages and market sentiment. Oil prices are expected to be bearish in the short term, but the global oil market supply - demand balance will not change significantly in the next 12 months [2][3][13]. - **A - share Market**: The A - share market is expected to form a long - term and stable upward trend under the influence of supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, capital inflows, and policy support [10]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Main News 3.1.1 International News - On January 5th, China and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in safeguarding children's rights and well - being, aiming to strengthen exchanges and cooperation in the field of children's development [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The national parenting subsidy in 2026 is open for application starting from January 5th. As of now, 31 provinces have issued parenting subsidies in 2025, with over 24 million people receiving them and a subsidy issuance rate of about 80% [7]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market, emphasizing the need to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and combat financial fraud [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The report provides the daily earnings data of various overseas assets on January 4th and 5th, including stock indices (S&P 500, C STOXX50, FTSE China A50 futures), the US dollar index, oil prices (ICE Brent crude oil), precious metals (London gold, London silver), and other commodities. Most assets showed an upward trend [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices rose, and the A - share market also increased significantly. It is expected that supply - side reform in 2026 will drive up commodity prices and resource - related stocks. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to attract overseas funds, and the A - share market is expected to form a long - term upward trend [10]. - **Bonds**: Bond prices fell slightly. Overseas events and changes in the US economic data affected the bond market. China's economic data showed improvement, and the government's policies are expected to support the short - term bond futures prices [11][12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overseas oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline. Venezuela has large oil reserves, but its future is uncertain, and short - term risks may affect production. The global oil market supply - demand balance will not change significantly in the next 12 months, and oil prices are expected to be bearish [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, while the overall methanol plant's operating rate increased. Coastal methanol inventories rose significantly, and short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded and then fell. Downstream demand has peaked, and the cost support is low. Polyolefin prices may move sideways in the future [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures fell slightly, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory digestion is accelerating under the supply - contraction pattern, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to rebound. The weak US economy, expected interest - rate cuts, and supply - demand gaps support the long - term upward trend of precious metals, although short - term fluctuations may occur [17][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night, reaching a new high. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand situation is expected to turn to a shortage. Short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the overall zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment, the US dollar, and downstream demand [20]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose, reaching a new high. The macro - level focuses on employment and interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable in the short - to - medium term, and demand is still acceptable. Attention should be paid to the impact of the approaching Spring Festival on downstream demand [21]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly at night. The production of domestic clean coal decreased, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained high. The iron - water production and the profitability of sample steel mills were stable. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean planting and harvesting progress is similar to previous years, and the US soybean export sales are lower than expected. The domestic market is affected by supply expectations and state - reserve auctions [23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of soybean oil fluctuated and rose at night, while palm and rapeseed oils were weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation of oils and fats will not improve significantly in the short term [25]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar futures oscillated. Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is coming to an end, and the supply pressure is relieved. Domestically, the sugar production season has begun, and the supply is increasing. The import policy and production cost support the price, but the short - term price is expected to remain low [26]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton futures was strong. Although the new cotton harvest is good, the sales progress is fast. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease, and the improvement of Sino - US relations is also beneficial to cotton exports [27]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price of container shipping to Europe opened high and fluctuated. The SCFIS European line index rose, and shipping companies continued to raise prices. Due to the late Spring Festival, the demand and price - support from shipping companies exceeded expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, the price inflection point may become clear [28][29].

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