10月13日上午，全球避险情绪升温，伦敦金现货价格再次创造历史，一度升至4060美元/盎司上方。 同花顺数据显示，截至A股午间收盘，在金价的强势带动之下，A股黄金股拉升。西部黄金涨逾6%，赤峰黄金涨逾2%，湖南黄金涨逾1%。 Wind数据显示，10月以来，伦敦金现货价格迅速攀升至4000美元/盎司以上，涨幅约5%。 消息面上，除贸易摩擦持续外，据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日，美国总统特朗普表示，若俄乌冲突无法解决，他可能会向乌克兰提供"战斧"导弹。 瑞银财富管理CIO认为，黄金创纪录的上涨，反映出在经济不确定性和地缘政治变动背景下，投资者对防御性资产的需求显著上升。 从资金层面上来看，各国央行购金和黄金ETF的持续流入成为金价上升的重要支撑。世界黄金协会的数据显示，2025年上半年，各国央行购金总量达415 吨。9月黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）收获历史最高净流入。 黄金的强势表现带动A股黄金概念股整体上涨，西部黄金、赤峰黄金等黄金股逆势走强。 高盛、瑞银等海外投行认为，在全球经济不确定性和地缘政治风险的压力下，黄金作为防御性资产的吸引力持续增强。各国央行购金以及黄金ETF的资金 流入，有望持续支撑金价上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged significantly, breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time on October 8, 2023, and reaching a new high of over $4060 per ounce shortly after, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [2][7]. Gold Price Predictions - UBS Wealth Management's CIO predicts that gold prices will rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months, while Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 year-end forecast to $4900 per ounce, an increase of $600 from previous estimates [2][7]. ETF Market Activity - There has been a notable increase in investment in gold-themed ETFs, with a net inflow of 593 million shares across 20 ETFs from October 9 to October 10, 2023. Year-to-date, these ETFs have seen a total increase of 14.213 billion shares [2][3]. Performance of Gold-themed ETFs - The performance of gold-themed ETFs has been strong, with an average year-to-date increase of over 44%. Some ETFs, such as those tracking "SSH Gold Stocks," have seen returns of up to 94.31% [3][6]. Significant Growth in ETF Sizes - The Huaan Gold ETF has experienced the most significant growth, reaching a size of 70.817 billion yuan, an increase of 42.142 billion yuan from the end of the previous year. Other ETFs, like Bosera and E Fund, have also seen substantial growth [4][5]. New Entrants to the Billion Club - Two additional gold-themed ETFs have joined the "billion club," with the Yongying Gold Stock ETF growing from 1.651 billion yuan to 12.41 billion yuan, and the Guotai Gold Fund ETF surpassing 10 billion yuan, reaching 21.126 billion yuan [5]. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The surge in gold prices is attributed to investor confidence in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This reflects a growing demand for defensive assets amid economic uncertainty [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in gold prices, with London spot gold reaching historical highs above $4,060 per ounce, driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - As of October 13, 2023, London spot gold prices rose by 0.82% to $4,050.74 per ounce, with a peak of $4,060.05 per ounce [3]. - Since the beginning of October, gold prices have surged over 5%, surpassing $4,000 per ounce [6]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a rise of 1.68%, reaching $4,067.5 per ounce, with a high of $4,079.3 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A-share gold stocks experienced a rally, with Western Gold rising over 6%, Chifeng Gold up over 2%, and Hunan Gold increasing by over 1% due to the strong performance of gold prices [5]. - Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have noted that the appeal of gold as a defensive asset is increasing amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [2][8]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - UBS's Chief Investment Officer highlighted that the record rise in gold prices reflects a significant increase in demand for defensive assets due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical changes [8]. - Various institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting prices could reach $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, and Morgan Stanley forecasting $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [9]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of approximately 23% [9][10]. Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are expected to maintain gold purchases at an average of 80 tons per month in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, contributing significantly to gold price increases [10]. - The inflow into gold ETFs is anticipated to rise as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026, further supporting gold prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The era of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields above 4% is nearing its end due to multiple macroeconomic uncertainties and challenges to previously optimistic market sentiments [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Political Challenges - The recent escalation of domestic and foreign policy tensions in the U.S. has significantly impacted investor confidence, particularly with the ongoing government shutdown leading to potential layoffs of federal employees [1][5]. - Trade policy uncertainties are rising again, prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets, which is putting downward pressure on Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Investor optimism in the U.S. economic outlook was previously supported by five key pillars, including concerns over prolonged recession, eased financial conditions, anticipated Fed rate cuts, belief that trade policy uncertainties peaked in April, and expectations for future fiscal stimulus [4]. - However, these pillars are showing significant cracks due to the dual shocks of government shutdown and trade tensions, which have shifted the perception of economic policy uncertainty [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - Morgan Stanley believes that these external shocks are occurring near the bottom of the economic cycle, reducing the likelihood of economic rebound rather than promoting recovery [6]. - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest more in the labor market rather than in rising inflation, leading to a bearish outlook on inflation, especially at the front end of the yield curve [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Based on the macroeconomic outlook, Morgan Stanley advises investors to adjust their fixed-income strategies, noting that only 8-year, 9-year, and 10-year Treasury yields remain above 4% on the yield curve [9]. - As the risk of economic slowdown increases, these 4% yields are likely unsustainable, prompting a recommendation to increase duration in U.S. Treasuries, particularly focusing on 5-year securities [12].

基本面： 周一（10月13日）亚洲时段现货白银每盎司 48.86美元，目前银价在纪录高点附近波动，伦敦市场的历史性轧空行情和贸易紧张局势扰乱市场；金价再创新 高。此外，围绕白宫可能对黄金等贵金属加征关税的担忧，也推动铂和钯大幅上涨。白银价格一度上涨1.1%，接近每盎司51美元，铂价和钯价均上涨超过 2%。金价在每盎司4,060美元上方创出纪录新高，上周连续第八周录得周涨幅。今年以来，贵金属价格一路飙升，四种主要金属价格的涨势主导了大宗商品 市场，涨幅在50%至80%不等。黄金的上涨受到央行购买、交易所交易基金（ETF）持仓增加以及美联储降息的支撑。贸易紧张局势的反复出现、美联储独 立性受到威胁、美国政府关门也助长了对避险资产的需求。 美国总统特朗普上周五表示，美国正在考虑大规模增加对亚洲大国进口商品的关税。消息传出后，黄金短暂突破4000美元/盎司大关，攀升至4022.52美元的 盘中高点。贸易战再度升温将令美元受挫，有利于避险资产。市场也在密切关注与法国政府可能垮台和美国政府持续停摆有关的风险。此外，投资者预计美 联储将在10月和12月分别降息 25 个基点。非孳息的黄金在上周三创下4059.05 美元的历 ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 13 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.58%报 4035.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.76%报 47.52 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.42%报 913.26 元/克，沪银跌 1.37%报 11059 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、截至 10 月 10 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.72 | | | | | 吨，当前持仓量为 1017.16 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日减少 8.47 吨，当前持仓量为 154 ...

"哎，你最近看黄金价格了吗？这几天咋又掉下来了？"早上喝豆浆的时候，隔壁桌的大姐一边刷手机一边感叹，"昨天我去商场看了一圈，金价都开始松动 了，老凤祥那金条都比上个月便宜了好几十块。"这话一出，旁边几个也开始凑热闹，毕竟黄金这玩意，谁家不多少关注点。 为什么金价最近又掉了？其实金价下跌的背后，原因挺复杂。最近国际黄金市场波动比较大，一方面是美元走强，另一方面全球经济数据有变化，投资者信 心波动，就导致金价回调。 说白了，黄金一直被看作"避险资产"。经济形势紧张时它涨，市场稳定或美元强势时它跌。最近国际市场气氛稍缓，加上投资资金流出黄金市场，自然价格 就掉了。 有朋友打趣说："我这金项链刚买完，它就掉价了。"这确实挺常见的事儿。黄金属于商品，也有市场起伏，买首饰更多是图个喜庆和保值，真要赚价差，得 看时机。 对比一下品牌金店，这价格差了将近200多元一克。有人说，水贝那买金就像去源头拿货，确实便宜，但也得懂门道，毕竟工费、纯度、证书这些都得看清 楚。 这么一对比，差价最高能拉到七八十块一克。同样买100克，那可差七八千块钱。这价格要是放在买首饰、买金条上，绝对值得多跑几家。 水贝市场的黄金价让人心动再看深圳水贝 ...

10月13日，受关税升级影响，避险情绪持续升温，金价大幅走强，截至 09:37，黄金ETF华夏(518850)上涨2.14%，最新价报8.84元，创历史新高，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨0.18%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌0.88%。 统计显示，黄金ETF华夏(518850)已连续14日获资金净流入，合计"吸金"7.58亿元，最新份额达7.06亿份，创成立以来新高。 截至10月10日，黄金ETF华夏近1年净值上涨51.42%，排名可比基金第一，贵金属基金排名7/50，居于前14.00%。从收益能力看，截至2025年10月10日，黄 金ETF华夏自成立以来，最高单月回报为11.49%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为16.34%，涨跌月数比为41/24，上涨月份平均收益率为3.32%，年 盈利百分比为75.00%，月盈利概率为62.76%，历史持有3年盈利概率为99.51%。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 ...

本周内计划发布但同样可能延迟的数据包括：9月零售销售数据、9月生产者价格指数PPI（均于周四发 布），以及当周初请失业金人数；周五则将公布9月新屋开工数据与9月工业产出数据。 花旗分析师在报告中指出："受停摆影响，新数据供应稀缺，本月降息的可能性较大，且市场已完全消 化这一预期。"伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，市场定价暗示美联储有望在10月29日的会议及 12月进一步降息。 编辑 | 格蕾丝 本周外盘看点 上周国际市场风云变幻，关税阴云再起，黄金再迎里程碑。美股全线下挫，道指周跌2.73%，纳指周跌 2.53%，标普500指数周跌2.43%。欧洲三大股指表现不佳，英国富时100指数周跌0.67%，德国DAX 30 指数周跌0.56%，法国CAC 40指数周跌2.02%。 本周看点颇多，市场持续关注美国政府停摆的相关进展以及美联储是否会释放进一步降息的信号。若停 摆持续，更多经济数据可能会延迟发布，此外多位美联储官员将发表例行讲话。在欧洲，通胀数据将影 响未来政策路径走向，英国与澳大利亚将公布关键就业数据。世界银行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）的 秋季年会召开，届时将公布最新经济展望。美股新财报季拉开帷 ...

Market Overview - Risk assets across Asia rebounded, reversing the pessimistic sentiment from the previous week, with investors returning to stocks, oil, and digital currencies, while gold continued its upward trend [1] - U.S. stock index futures rose, with the S&P 500 futures climbing nearly 1% [1][3] - Oil prices increased by over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising 0.9% to $59 per barrel [4] - Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4045 per ounce [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw a strong rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing $115,000 [1][8] Economic Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reiterated its stance on the trade war, stating that China does not wish to engage in conflict but is not afraid to do so [2] - The Ministry urged the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and maintain stable and healthy economic relations through dialogue [2] - Analysts from Minsheng Securities believe that the fundamental tone of U.S.-China relations remains unchanged and will not become a turning point for the market [2] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound after a historic large-scale liquidation, with Bitcoin rising 4.2% to around $115,180 and Ethereum increasing by 10.8% to $4,143 [8] - Other major cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with Solana up 6.3% and Dogecoin soaring 7.6% [10] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rebounded to $3.85 trillion, up nearly 10% from two days prior [10]