消息面上，最新数据显示，美国4月PPI环比意外下跌0.5%，其中服务价格下降0.7%，创2009年以 来最大单月跌幅。鲍威尔发表言论，美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，零利率已不再是一个基本情 况，需要重新考虑就业不足和平均通胀率的措辞，并预计4月PCE降至2.2%，通胀预期减弱，将会继续 提升降息前景，而会支持金价。隔夜COMEX黄金期货涨1.74%报3243.90美元/盎司。 今日开盘，金价强势反弹，SGE黄金9999涨幅达1.7%，相关ETF——黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超 1.6%。 黄金基金ETF（518800）投资金交所现货合约，紧密跟踪金价走势，场内T+0交易，相较于购买黄 金实物资产等更加快捷方便，流动性也更好。 注：市场观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。黄金基金ETF主要投资对象为黄金现货合 约，预期风险收益水平与黄金资产相似，不同于股票基金、混合基金、债券基金和货币市场基金。如需 购买相关基金产品，请您详阅基金法律文件，关注投资者适当性管理相关规定，提前做好风险测评，并 根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编 ...

回溯市场脉络，4月初"对等关税"政策调整阶段，全球投资市场风险偏好显著下降，黄金市场遭遇明显 抛售压力。4月9日，美国经济下行压力与贸易摩擦加剧，引发市场对美国偿债能力的担忧，庞大且持续 扩张的债务规模开始面临市场审视。在此背景下，4月7日至4月11日，作为传统避险资产的美国国债市 场出现逆转，长期美债价格在三个交易日内累计最大跌幅达8.7%，充分反映全球投资者对市场预期的 转变。受此影响，黄金避险资产属性再度凸显，4月9日至4月22日期间，市场配置需求激增，推动黄金 价格显著上扬。 随着贸易局势的发展，金融体系潜在风险与政策制约因素逐步显现。4月底，市场情绪趋于稳定，黄金 价格也随之回归理性区间。后续贸易关税谈判持续推进，随着超预期信号的出现，黄金价格延续下行趋 势。从当前市场格局研判，短期内黄金或难以形成单边趋势性突破。 黄金市场未来上行空间的拓展，高度依赖美国贸易、经济及财政赤字等领域的风险演变态势。一旦这些 领域出现系统性风险，并伴随风险外溢效应的产生，将形成驱动黄金价格开启新一轮上涨周期的核心动 力。 回溯美国财政数据，自2020年起，美国联邦债务规模呈现加速扩张态势。2024年，美国联邦赤字规模达 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are rising due to increased international risk aversion and weak economic data from the US, which showed commercial crude oil inventories at 441.8 million barrels, an increase of 3.5 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of a decrease of 1.1 million barrels [1] - The market remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, driven by complex global trade finance conditions, potential passive easing of monetary policies, and inflationary pressures [3] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices are under significant downward pressure due to concerns that a US-Iran agreement could lead to the return of Iranian oil to the international market, exacerbating supply surplus [2] - OPEC's monthly report has lowered the global daily oil demand growth forecast for 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels, contributing to supply concerns [2] - OPEC+ may accelerate production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, further increasing supply worries [2] Group 3: Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures market shows mixed results, with PVC recovering above 5000 yuan/ton, and main contracts for alumina and caustic soda also rebounding [2] - SC crude oil main contract fell over 4%, leading the decline in the domestic commodity market, while precious metals also weakened with main contracts for gold and silver dropping over 3% and 2% respectively [2] Group 4: Global Stock Market - Global stock markets performed positively, with the London FTSE 100 index rising by 48.74 points, or 0.57%, led by pharmaceutical stocks [2] - The Tokyo stock market also showed strength, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by 539.00 points, or 1.43%, surpassing the 38,000-point mark [2]

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金站上3230美元/盎司，日内涨1.39%。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has experienced a significant decline, breaking through key levels of $3300 and $3200 per ounce, with a recent drop to $3120 per ounce, reflecting a weekly decline of over 4% [1][5] - Major financial institutions, such as Citigroup, have drastically lowered their gold price forecasts, reducing the three-month target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a decrease of 10% [5] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China tariff negotiations, which have reduced market risk aversion and led to a phase of consolidation in the gold market [5] Group 2 - Despite the recent downturn, many analysts believe that gold prices may maintain high volatility in the medium to long term due to geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [6] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, reaching 73.77 million ounces by the end of April 2025, indicating sustained demand for gold [6] - UBS maintains a price forecast of $3500 per ounce for the next two years, with a potential peak of $3600, supported by the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [8] Group 3 - The World Gold Council emphasizes the strategic importance of gold as a safe-haven asset amid increasing correlations and volatility in stocks and bonds, suggesting a long-term investment approach rather than speculative trading [9] - It is recommended that investors allocate 10% to 15% of their portfolios to gold, adjusting based on market conditions and individual risk tolerance [9]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to easing US-China trade tensions, which has led to a shift of funds away from safe-haven assets like gold [1][5] - As of May 15, spot gold prices fell to a new low of $3120, marking the lowest level since April 10, driven by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][5] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices have broken key support levels, with a potential further decline to $3075 or even the psychological level of $3000 if US PPI data exceeds expectations [1][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The latest data from the EIA indicates an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels, raising concerns about supply exceeding demand [5][6] - As a result, WTI crude oil prices fell by $1.33 to $61.82 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to the inventory increase and fears of supply-demand imbalance [5][6] - The technical outlook for oil suggests a downward trend, with expectations of further declines towards the $50 mark after a series of price fluctuations [6]

5月15日，在瑞银有关国际黄金价格的分享会议中，瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves表示，尽管当前市场存 在诸多不确定性，包括关税问题以及更广泛的宏观经济和地缘政治风险，但这些因素反而为黄金创造了 一个看涨的背景。 Teves提到，投资者继续分散资产配置是推动黄金持续上涨的关键因素之一。黄金作为一种长期资产配 置的选项，对于投资者来说具有吸引力。她指出，尽管黄金的看涨前景已经存在一段时间，且价格也有 所上涨，但黄金Comex的净多头仓位处于较低水平，而黄金ETF和Comex仓位相对于总资产管理规模的 价值也处于较低水平，这表明投资者仍有空间继续增加黄金储备。 此外，Teves还提到，中国于2025年宣布允许保险公司将其资产的1%投资于黄金，这一政策虽然不会立 即带来大量资金流入，但有助于提升市场对黄金的积极情绪。她指出，中国国内零售和机构投资者对黄 金需求强劲，上海黄金交易所的交易量大幅上升，国内黄金溢价较高，且有大量资金流入中国黄金 ETF。 2月7日，金融监管总局公布了《关于开展保险资金投资黄金业务试点的通知》（下称《通知》），明确 自通知发布之日起，允许10家试点保险公司，以中长期资产配置为目的，开展投 ...

本轮金价调整的深层逻辑值得深入剖析。作为典型的避险资产，黄金价格走势与地缘政治风险及经济不确定性呈现显著正相关。 过去三年间贸易摩擦、科技制裁、区域热战等风险事件频发，从俄乌军事对峙到巴以冲突升级，从红海危机持续到印巴边境交火，全球安全格局的动荡直接 推升了黄金的避险需求。 近期国际金价剧烈波动引发市场广泛关注，这种震荡走势令众多新入场投资者及高位加仓者倍感焦虑。5月14日交易时段，伦敦现货黄金价格单日重挫2.1% 至3186美元/盎司，5月15日继续下挫，按照此趋势是要冲着跌破3100美元大关去了。 若将时间轴拉长至5月7日至14日的六个交易日，国际金价累计跌幅已达6.72%，这种波动幅度在贵金属市场引发了深刻反思。 部分市场参与者试图将黄金走势与股票市场类比，认为这种跌幅不算什么。但简单对比忽视了两个关键差异：其一是黄金衍生品交易中普遍存在的杠杆效 应，实际亏损幅度往往数倍于标的资产价格波动；其二在于黄金作为传统避险资产的属性定位，其价格波动特性与股票市场存在本质区别。 历史数据显示，黄金年化波动率通常维持在15%左右，与股票市场动辄10%的日内波动形成鲜明对比。 与此同时，美元信用体系遭遇挑战，特朗普政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment and investor risk appetite, driven by rising optimism in global trade and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][5]. Market Performance - Spot gold prices fell over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3181.62 per ounce, the lowest level since April 11, with intraday lows hitting $3174.62 [3]. - Other precious metals also experienced declines: silver dropped 1.9% to $32.25 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $982.05 per ounce, and palladium decreased 0.3% to $954.36 per ounce, indicating overall pressure in the precious metals market [3]. Trade Sentiment - The increase in trade optimism has significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading investors to shift funds from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as stocks and commodities [3][4]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market participants are awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, with expectations that a higher-than-expected PPI could reinforce the likelihood of interest rate hikes, further pressuring gold prices [4]. Technical Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices may be seen as a correction following a period of significant increases driven by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has negatively impacted gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it less attractive to investors holding other currencies [4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that gold's long-term value as a safe-haven asset remains intact due to ongoing global economic recovery uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The continued implementation of loose monetary policies by global central banks may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [4].

现货白银 中美经贸关系释放积极信号，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》落地，双方互降关税。贸易局势的阶段性缓和使得全球股市普遍反弹，市场风 险偏好显著回升。投资者纷纷从避险资产转向风险资产，黄金作为传统避险资产，其吸引力大打折扣。资金大量流出黄金市场，推动金价下 行，昨日现货黄金价格跌破3200.00美元/盎司的重要心理关口，日内下跌超50美元，创4月15日以来的低位。 不仅中美贸易关系改善，市场消息称美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议也"接近达成"，进一步强化了市场的乐观情绪，持续对金价形成 压制。美联储副主席杰斐逊就经济前景发表的讲话中，他指出，关税以及相关的不确定性，可能在今年减缓美国经济增长、推高通胀。 交易策略： 现货黄金 反弹至3220.00企稳做空，目标3190.00 杰斐逊在纽约联储组织的会议上表示，关于政府政策的不确定性正在加剧，目前尚不清楚关税对物价上涨的影响是较为短期还是较为持久。他 明确下调了对美国今年经济增长的预期，不过仍预计美国经济将继续扩张。他特别提到，"如果目前宣布的关税措施持续下去，可能会中断通 胀放缓的进展，至少在短期内会推高通胀。" 从通胀角度来看，杰斐逊认为，最近的通胀数 ...