金融监管总局局长李云泽在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，近期共推出8项增量政策，包括加快出 台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，为市场引 入更多增量资金，调整优化监管规则，调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活跃资本市 场，尽快推出支持小微企业、民营企业融资一揽子政策，制定银行业、保险业护航外贸发展系列政 策措施，对受关税影响较大的市场主体提供精准服务，修订并购贷款管理办法，加大对科创企业的 投资力度，制定科技保险高质量发展意见。 中国证监会主席吴清在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，全力巩固市场维稳向好的势头，动态完善应 对各类外部风险工作预案，全力支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金作用。 他表示，A股市场的科技叙事逻辑越来越清晰，集聚效应日益明显。而 中国资产的配置价值和吸引 力都在持续提升。吴清坦言，前行的路上会有风有雨，不管是轻风细雨，还是暴风骤雨，不管是风 高浪急，还是惊涛骇浪，我们都有信心，有条件有能力来实现稳定健康发展。 历次调准后A股表现 最近一次央行降准发生在2024年9月27日，当日早间8点左右，央行发布公告称，中国人民银行坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，加大货 ...

中国证监会主席吴清5月7日在国新办发布会上说，A股市场的科技叙事逻辑越来越清晰，集聚效应日益 明显。 （新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has appreciated significantly, indicating that global capital views the Chinese market as a safe haven [3] - The rise in the FTSE A50 index suggests that foreign investors are increasingly attracted to A-share valuations [3] - Gold prices reaching $3,400 reflect global skepticism towards the Federal Reserve's policies, highlighting a shift in risk sentiment [3] Group 2 - Upcoming important meetings are expected to introduce policies that may boost infrastructure investment and consumer recovery, while the real estate sector may see new regulations [3] - The market is anticipated to experience sector rotation, with financials benefiting from RMB appreciation and consumer sectors recovering from recent data [3] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on companies with solid performance metrics and clear industry positioning, rather than short-term market fluctuations [4]

责任编辑：彭紫晨 A股市场后续机会预计显著好于4月份。1季报落地后，投资者对业绩的担忧大为缓解，风险偏好有望提 升，一旦行业发生积极变化，投资者将会积极参与，从而提高市场活跃度，科技成长、高端制造、新消 费等领域尤为值得重视。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至上周，A股1季报披露完毕，整体表现好于预期。2025年1季度，全A上市公司营收同比-0.37%，归 母净利润实现近1.49万亿元，同比+3.47%，较去年4季度大幅改善；全A非金融归母净利润实现7797亿 元，同比+4.17%，而去年4个季度净利润均为负增长。上市公司1季度实现了良好的开局，但由于关税 影响，宏观基本面短期承压，根据统计局披露的制造业PMI数据看，4月份制造业PMI回落至49%，低于 预期，受外需影响，企业生产指数、在手订单、价格指数等均有显著下滑，这意味着1季度上市公司的 业绩改善较难线性外推至2季度，不过我们认为今年上半年A股上市公司业绩增速将好于年初悲观预 期。 4月份市场整体回落，主要跌幅发生在4月7日，其他交易日表现平稳。从指数表现看，科创50、上证 50、上证指数等跌幅相对较小，创业板指、中证500等跌幅较大，价值 ...

Group 1 - The global market showed a positive trend during the holiday period, with multiple favorable factors emerging for the A-share market's reopening [1] - Key positive signals include stable overseas markets, high expectations for 3-4 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, and impressive consumption data during the May Day holiday [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly, breaking through the important threshold of 7.2 [1] Group 2 - A-shares typically reflect overseas market trends post-holiday, but there is a significant divergence between index performance and individual stock movements [4] - Despite a general upward trend in individual stocks, the overall index showed weakness before the holiday, indicating a need for careful stock selection based on underlying driving factors [4] - The market is currently characterized by significant polarization, with institutional funds playing a crucial role in supporting long-term stock price increases [5] Group 3 - The analysis of two specific stocks reveals that understanding the underlying institutional trading dynamics is more important than merely observing price trends [7] - Data visualization indicates active participation from institutional funds, with signs of "institutional shakeout" occurring during price increases [9] - The presence of 223 stocks currently in the institutional shakeout phase suggests that daily price increases are common, but sustained upward movement depends on accurately capturing institutional fund movements [14]

李正闯指出，今天市场出现了几个明显的变化。首先，成交量出来了，上午放量1300亿。其次，个股的 活跃度也有所提升，振幅增大，涨3个点、4个点的股票很多，超跌的科技类股票也有所回升，这说明有 增量资金介入，市场分歧已经出现。目前，李正闯对三大指数的预期是，上午指数的目标是收于3300点 上方，并且是放量收上。如果再乐观一点，今天下午再涨10个指数点，或许就能补掉3319点的缺口。如 果指数不到3319点，投资者可以关注一下120天线的位置，即3327点，这将是未来的压力位。 （原标题：投顾观市：5月A股开门红，市场放量补缺在即！） 5月6日，投顾李正闯在今日市场分析中指出，A股受外围市场上涨影响，出现了十几个指数点的高开， 之后继续震荡上行，截至上午收盘，已经站上3300点的位置，收于3309点，并且形成了三者共振的局 面。所谓三者共振，是指领先指标在上，分时线在下，DDX翻红，期指也呈上行态势。今天出现了这 样的局面，投资者该如何看待今天的指数走势呢？ 在节前，李正闯曾提醒投资者，节后市场出现分歧的概率较大，也就是说市场必然会做出方向性的选 择。无论是向上还是向下，对于目前的个股而言都是好事。因为连续出现高位 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has suddenly adjusted the market closure arrangements during the May Day holiday, following the investigation of Vice Chairman Wang Jianjun for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - There are significant concerns regarding major shareholders exploiting loopholes in the current reduction rules, treating the stock market as a cash machine, leading to potential losses for retail investors [1] - The recent trend of companies suddenly turning into ST (Special Treatment) stocks during the annual report disclosure period has resulted in substantial declines, highlighting the impact of the strictest delisting regulations in history [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the A-share market post-holiday indicates both opportunities and challenges, with many stocks having already reached attractive levels after April's adjustments [3] - The focus for the upcoming rebound should be on the robotics sector and computing power, emphasizing the importance of seizing the May rebound [3] - Despite a generally positive market sentiment due to external factors like the appreciation of the RMB, the market remains in a state of indecision, with significant divergence among individual stocks [5] Group 3 - The market opened slightly lower at 3284 points and experienced minor fluctuations, reaching a high of 3292 points before closing at 3279 points, down 7.62 points with increased trading volume [7] - The market has not yet recovered from the losses incurred in early April, indicating a potential for a second bottoming phase [7] - The upcoming trading period is expected to be less challenging compared to April, as May and June are typically performance vacuum periods [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant volatility since the sharp decline on April 7, leading to concerns among investors about the potential for recovery and strategies to navigate the turbulent environment [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - A-shares exhibit higher volatility compared to U.S. stocks, with A-shares experiencing a 16% fluctuation in individual stocks since April 7, while U.S. stocks have only seen a decline of over 30% eight times in the past 120 years [2][4] - Investors should embrace the high volatility of A-shares as it presents opportunities for excess returns, as stable markets do not typically reveal undervalued or panic-driven opportunities [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors are advised to adopt a trend-following approach rather than attempting to predict market movements, as retail investors are more susceptible to emotional influences compared to institutional investors [5] - The reliance on K-line patterns and financial news may obscure the true market dynamics, and utilizing big data technology can help uncover genuine trading intentions and market essence [5][12] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - The behavior of institutional funds is crucial in determining stock price movements, as seen in the example where a stock experiences a pullback followed by a rise, indicating potential new investment opportunities driven by institutional support [7] - Signals of "strong profit-taking" indicate that institutional investors are realizing profits, which may suggest a high risk for chasing prices upward despite subsequent minor increases [9][11] Group 4: Data Utilization - Professional big data tools are available to capture and analyze original trading data, allowing for the identification of abnormal trading signals that may not be visible to ordinary investors [12][14] - Active institutional inventory data often correlates with upward price momentum, while its absence can lead to downward trends, highlighting the limitations of solely relying on K-line analysis [14]

宏观策略·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 一季度受益于抢出口，中国经济增速达 5.4%，出口增速显著，但 4 月美 国订单锐减。尽管转口贸易支撑了 4 月出口，但美国经济软数据衰退预示 外需疲软，预计 6 月出口将明显下降，三季度压力或将增大。 • 企业普遍预期关税不会持久，因美国短期内难寻替代产能且消费习惯难改。 特朗普已释放积极信号，中美或通过非美国家间接博弈，中国正深化与欧 洲等关系，中美谈判时间表或将确定。 • 关税增加导致中国企业出口成本上升，尤其影响电子、家电等全球营销产 品。应对策略包括转嫁成本、产能转移至东南亚/印度、转口贸易、建立海 外仓及拆分产品价值等避税手段。 • 中国企业正采取多元化市场战略和深度本土化措施，通过在东南亚、印度 等地建厂供应美国市场，同时保留中国作为全球供应中心，以降低单一市 场依赖并增强抗风险能力。 • 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利改善，全 A 非金融板块累计同比增速显著提升， 但单季度营收仍有波动。创业板盈利明显改善，科创 50 业绩加速下滑， TMT 板块表现优秀，传统消费行业相对优异。 Q&A 美国关税政策对中国企业的影响如何，以及企 ...

廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...