银价在纪录高点附近波动，伦敦市场的历史性轧空行情和贸易紧张局势扰乱市场；金价再创新高。此 外，围绕白宫可能对 黄金等贵金属加征关税的担忧，也推动铂和钯大幅上涨。 白银价格一度上涨 1.1%，接近每盎司51美元，铂价和钯价均上涨超过2%。金价在每盎司4,060美元上方创出纪录新高，上 周连续第八周录得周涨幅。今年以来，贵金属价格一路飙升，四种主要金属价格的涨势主导了 大宗商 品市场，涨幅在50%至80%不等。黄金的上涨受到央行购买、交易所交易基金持仓增加以及美联储降息 的支撑。贸易紧张局势的反复出现、美联储独立性受到威胁、美国政府关门也助长了对避险资产的需 求。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4] - Options: Put on hold [4] Core View of the Report - The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations have jointly pushed the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Macroeconomic Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, gold and silver continued their strong performance. U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1, a new 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese imports, an additional part on top of the existing paid tariffs. The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all key software" on the same day, significantly increasing tariff risks. The bill proposed by the U.S. Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate, and the overall U.S. fiscal risk remains prominent. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that there were increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate cut path. Although most officials supported further rate cuts this year, 7 officials believed that no further cuts were needed, and only Fed Governor Milan supported a larger 50-basis-point cut. The market has strengthened the pricing of a rate cut in October, with the Fedwatch showing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [1]. Fundamental Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,728 kilograms from the previous week, while silver warehouse receipts decreased by 23,221 kilograms to 1,169,061 kilograms. In the Comex inventory, this week's Comex gold inventory decreased by 170,212.58 ounces to 39,940,669.57 ounces, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 9,409,653.79 ounces to 522,463,797.41 ounces. In the precious metal ETFs, in the week of October 10 (currently the latest), the gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 2.28 tons to 1,017.16 tons, and the silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 274.06 tons to 15,444 tons. As of September 23, 2025, in terms of CFTC positions, the net long speculative positions in gold increased by 0.13% to 266,749 contracts, and the net long positions in silver increased by 1.43% to 52,276 contracts. In the week of October 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.51% from the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell by 2.49%, and the photovoltaic sector fell by 0.05%. As of September 29, 2025 (the latest), the photovoltaic price index was reported at 15.74, up 0.01 from the previous period. As of September 15, 2025, the photovoltaic manager index was reported at 119.66, a month-on-month decrease of 5.43 [2]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations jointly push the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price [3]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4]. - Options: Put on hold [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The resurgence of the tariff war has led to increased risk aversion, potentially pushing up the gold price. After the interest rate cut in September, the pricing logic of gold has shifted from α-driven to β-driven, opening up upward space for long - term narratives [8][9]. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to remain strong. Although there may be resistance around the $50 level, it still has the opportunity to outperform gold in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the overseas short - squeeze situation [8][10]. - Copper: Trade risks have become more apparent, supply disruptions have intensified, and price fluctuations have widened. The market is currently bearish, but the tightening supply - demand fundamentals may provide opportunities for long - term bullish positions [89][95]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price Performance - This week, London gold rose 2.29%, and London silver rose 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05%. The US dollar index was 98.82 [9]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high [9]. Market Drivers - Overseas events during the holiday, such as the US government shutdown, French political turmoil, China's continuous increase in gold reserves, and Tether's plan to hoard gold - backed tokens, have all contributed to the rise in gold prices [9]. - Trump's resumption of the trade war over the weekend has increased market volatility, but the impact on gold has been relatively stable [9]. - For silver, the continuous inversion of the spot - futures price difference overseas, high lease rates, and tight inventory have supported the price [10]. Transaction - related Data - **Price Difference**: Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 17.655 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 49.3 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to 2.611 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.12 dollars/ounce. Domestically, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver spot - futures spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, and the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, both at the upper end of the historical range [16][19][23][25][29][34]. - **Inventory and Position**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons. COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both increased slightly. Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][46][49][51][57][59]. Copper Price and Market Situation - The copper market is currently bearish, with a price range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index has risen rapidly, indicating increased market uncertainty [89][91]. - Copper concentrate spot TC is weak, and smelting losses have widened [93]. Market Drivers - The US tariff increase has put pressure on copper prices, but the tightening supply fundamentals may limit the decline. Major copper mines such as Grasberg have supply disruptions, and recycled copper supply is also tight. China's refined copper production is expected to decline in October [95]. - Total global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in domestic inventory. However, as the supply - demand imbalance intensifies, there is still a possibility of inventory reduction in the future [95]. Transaction - related Data - **Volatility**: The volatility of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 22%, and Shanghai copper volatility has risen to around 25% [102]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of Shanghai copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. COMEX copper has changed from a near - end C structure to a B structure [104][106]. - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all increased, with Shanghai copper positions increasing by 32,200 lots to 578,300 lots [107]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: LME commercial short net positions have increased, while CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased slightly [113].

（原标题：金价3年猛涨123% 买100g黄金一年多花3万！还能买吗） 一场席卷全球的避险浪潮，正在将贵金属市场推向沸腾的顶点。 在全球多重风险因素叠加下，黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口。 尤其值得关注的是，金价在今年4月22日首次突破3500美元/盎司大关后，仅用169天便一举冲上4000美 元关口，如此惊人的涨速，堪称"火箭式"上涨，引发全球投资者高度关注。 而市场的"沸腾"并不仅限于黄金。现货白银涨势更为迅猛，年内涨幅超70%跑赢黄金，价格破50美元。 据21财经工作室测算，若投资者在一年前购入100g黄金并持有不动，一年收益高达3万元，收益率妥妥 超50%。 截至10月10日，据21财经工作室统计，自2022年以来，国际金价累计涨幅已达123%，展现出强劲的上 扬势头。进入2025年，这一涨势愈发迅猛，年内涨幅已突破53%。 100克黄金售价突破11万 一年多花超3万 10月10日，国内多家品牌金饰克价突破1180元。老庙黄金足金饰品报价1183元/克；周生生足金饰品报 价1176元/克；老凤祥足金饰品报价1172元/克。周大福足金（饰品、工艺品类）克价冲上1180元。 图源/21财经客户 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are both showing a relatively strong trend. Gold is driven by factors such as the resurgence of the tariff war and various overseas events, while silver is affected by overseas short - squeeze situations and tight spot supplies. The report maintains a positive outlook on the prices of both gold and silver, expecting silver to potentially outperform gold in the medium term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - This week, London gold rose by 2.29%, and London silver rose by 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 in the previous week to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05% (2 - year 3.52%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 98.82 [3][4]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver reached a maximum of 49.965 US dollars, and London silver reached 51.221 US dollars, breaking historical highs [3][4]. 3.2 Price and Spread Analysis - **Overseas Price - Spread**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 17.655 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 49.3 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 2.611 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.12 US dollars/ounce [10][13]. - **Domestic Price - Spread**: This week, the gold futures - spot spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [17][19][23][28]. 3.3 Inventory and Position Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons [37][39][42]. - **Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver increased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][50][52]. 3.4 Core Drivers of Gold - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and 10YTIPS continued to decline [62]. - The report also analyzed factors such as inflation, retail sales performance, non - farm employment performance, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, inflation surprise index, and the probability of Fed rate cuts [67][70][75][77][79].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash on October 11, with Bitcoin plummeting over 13% in 24 hours, reaching a low of approximately $105,930, marking a 20% drop from its recent peak of $126,250 [2][5] - The crash led to over 1.6 million investors being liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of approximately $19.36 billion, the largest single-day liquidation in cryptocurrency history [8][12] - The volatility and high leverage in the market have raised concerns about Bitcoin's suitability as a reserve asset, as it lacks the stability required for such a role [3][21] Market Reaction - The crash was likened to previous significant downturns in the cryptocurrency market, with analysts noting that high leverage and speculative capital contributed to the rapid sell-off [7][14] - Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies experienced even steeper declines, with Ethereum dropping over 20% and smaller altcoins facing drastic price reductions [6][12] - The market's reaction was characterized by a swift transition from greed to fear, as leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices [17][19] Impact on Stablecoins - The crash also affected stablecoins, particularly the synthetic stablecoin USDe, which saw its price drop to as low as $0.62, a 38% de-pegging from the dollar [4][9] - The de-pegging was attributed to panic selling, insufficient liquidity, and the collapse of leveraged positions that relied on USDe for borrowing [10][11] - Ethena Labs, the issuer of USDe, confirmed that the protocol's minting and redemption functions remained operational despite the market volatility [13] Historical Context - The recent Bitcoin crash has drawn parallels to past market crashes, highlighting a recurring pattern where high leverage leads to rapid liquidations and market instability [14][17] - Historical events such as the "312" crash in March 2020 and the "519" crash in May 2021 demonstrate similar market dynamics, where external factors triggered significant sell-offs [15][16] Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, there are indications of a potential recovery, with Bitcoin's price rebounding to around $112,000 shortly after the crash [18] - However, the overall sentiment in the market has shifted to a more cautious stance, with investors reassessing the risk associated with Bitcoin as a high-risk asset rather than a safe haven [19][20] - The possibility of Bitcoin being recognized as a reserve asset by central banks remains distant, as it continues to be viewed as a speculative investment rather than a stable store of value [21][24]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash on October 11, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% within 24 hours, highlighting the volatility and risks associated with high-leverage trading in the crypto space [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - Bitcoin's price fell from approximately 12.625 million to a low of about 10.59 million, marking a 20% retracement from its recent peak and the largest sell-off since April [1][2]. - Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies faced even steeper declines, with Ethereum dropping over 20% and smaller altcoins experiencing drastic price drops [2][3]. - The crash led to over 166,000 traders being liquidated, with total liquidations reaching approximately 19.358 billion USD, potentially exceeding 30 to 40 billion USD when accounting for incomplete data from exchanges [3]. DeFi Impact - The crash also affected decentralized finance (DeFi), particularly the synthetic stablecoin USDe, which saw its price drop to as low as 0.62 USD, a 38% deviation from its peg to the dollar [4]. - The price drop was attributed to panic selling, insufficient liquidity, and the collapse of leveraged positions, which exacerbated the selling pressure [4]. Historical Context - The recent crash has drawn comparisons to previous significant downturns in the cryptocurrency market, such as the "312" crash in March 2020 and the "519" crash in May 2021, where high leverage and panic selling led to rapid price declines [6][7]. - Historical patterns indicate that each major downturn is triggered by different factors but exhibits similar market reactions, particularly the rapid liquidation of leveraged positions [6][7]. Investment Sentiment - Following the crash, Bitcoin's market sentiment shifted from greed to caution, with some investors attempting to capitalize on the dip, as indicated by a surge in bullish options orders [8][9]. - Despite a brief recovery to around 11.2 million, the overall sentiment remains cautious, reflecting the high volatility and risk associated with Bitcoin as an asset class [9][11]. Future Outlook - Deutsche Bank's report suggested that Bitcoin could potentially become a significant reserve asset by 2030, akin to gold, but the recent volatility raises questions about its stability and suitability for such a role [12][14]. - Experts emphasize that Bitcoin's high leverage, risk, and volatility do not support its candidacy as a reserve currency, and its market structure remains fragile [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash on October 11, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% within 24 hours, reaching a low of approximately $105,900, marking a 20% decline from its recent peak of $126,250. This event triggered a massive sell-off, reminiscent of previous market crashes [1][3][10]. Market Dynamics - The crash resulted in over 1.6 million investors being liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching $19.358 billion, the largest single-day deleveraging in cryptocurrency history [5][10]. - Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum saw even steeper declines, with Ethereum dropping over 20% to around $3,380, while other notable tokens like XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin fell by more than 30% [3][5]. Causes of the Crash - Analysts pointed to high leverage and speculative capital as primary factors contributing to the crash. Many investors had shifted from spot markets to high-leverage contracts, amplifying risks [4][5]. - The market's rapid decline triggered a chain reaction of forced liquidations as key technical support levels were breached, leading to a snowball effect of selling pressure [3][4]. Impact on Stablecoins - The crash also affected stablecoins, particularly the synthetic stablecoin USDe issued by Ethena Labs, which saw its price drop to as low as $0.62, a 38% depeg from the dollar [1][5]. - The depeg was attributed to panic selling, insufficient liquidity, and the collapse of leveraged positions that relied on USDe for borrowing [6][10]. Historical Context - The recent crash has drawn comparisons to previous significant downturns in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting a pattern where high leverage leads to rapid liquidations and market instability [7][10]. - Historical events such as the "Black Thursday" in March 2020 and other notable crashes in 2021 illustrate the recurring theme of high volatility and structural weaknesses in the cryptocurrency market [8][9]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, there are indications of a potential recovery, with Bitcoin's price rebounding to around $112,000 shortly after the crash. However, market sentiment has shifted from greed to caution [10][12]. - The narrative of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset is being questioned, as its price movements have shown a strong correlation with risk assets like U.S. tech stocks, rather than traditional safe havens like gold [12][16].

白银这波涨幅，堪称惊艳全场。相比之下，今年现货黄金价格涨幅"只有"50%左右。白银为啥突然这么牛？背后的原因可不少。 家人们，最近投资圈可太热闹了，黄金价格一路狂飙，屡创新高，吸引了不少人的目光。可谁能想到，有个"隐藏选手"比黄金还猛，它就是白银！今年以 来，白银价格涨幅超70%，直接打破历史纪录，惊掉了众人的下巴。 就在10月9号晚上，现货白银价格像坐了火箭一样，一路冲破50美元/盎司的大关，最高冲到了51.22美元/盎司，这可是自20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"事件 以来的最高水平。要知道，之前白银的历史高点才49.79美元/盎司 ，这次直接把纪录给改写了。 还有一个关键因素，就是白银市场的供需失衡。全球白银供应已经连续5年出现缺口，库存不断下降，这使得白银的现货溢价十分明显。最近，伦敦市场白 银租赁利率飙升，伦敦现货白银价格较COMEX期货价格出现异常溢价，进一步反映出白银市场存在阶段性挤仓风险。 不过，白银价格波动大，投资的时候可得悠着点。虽然现在涨势喜人，但过去白银价格也经历过大幅下跌。比如1980年的"亨特兄弟逼仓"事件，银价从高位 暴跌，很多投资者血本无归；2011年，白银价格也曾大幅上涨后又暴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to significantly increase tariffs has triggered a global financial crisis, leading to massive losses in the stock and cryptocurrency markets, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold have surged in value [1][3][7]. Market Impact - Following Trump's tweet about tariffs, the Dow Jones dropped 878 points, the Nasdaq fell by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 experienced its worst single-day decline since April [3]. - Major tech stocks were heavily impacted, with Nvidia losing nearly $230 billion in market value after a 4.89% drop, and Tesla and other tech giants also suffering significant losses [3]. - Chinese stocks faced even steeper declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index plummeting 6.1%, and companies like Alibaba and Baidu seeing drops exceeding 8% [3]. Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 13.5%, falling from a historical high of $126,000 to a low of $105,900, while other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin saw declines of over 20% [3][7]. - A significant number of leveraged trades resulted in over 152,000 liquidations within 24 hours, amounting to nearly $10 billion in losses [3][4]. Gold Market Performance - In stark contrast to the declines in risk assets, gold prices surged by 1.58%, surpassing $4,035 per ounce, as investors flocked to traditional safe-haven assets [7]. - The crisis highlighted Bitcoin's volatility and risk, as it fell more sharply than traditional assets during the trade war panic [7]. Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. government shutdown entered its 10th day, with layoffs announced, exacerbating fears of economic stagnation [7][8]. - The potential impact of tariffs on consumer goods was significant, with reports indicating that the cost of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could rise to $2,300 due to tariffs, and Tesla vehicles could see a cost increase of $15,000 [8]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers reacted to the impending tariffs by stockpiling goods, leading to a surge in sales of electronics and a notable 11.2% increase in U.S. auto sales in March as buyers rushed to purchase before tariffs took effect [10]. International Reactions - The EU proposed retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods, while Japan and South Korea initiated measures to stabilize their markets in response to the U.S. tariff threats [11].