Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States have not reached a consensus, despite Japan's efforts to enhance its negotiating position. The prospects for an agreement during the upcoming G7 summit appear uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - Japan's trade representative has visited the U.S. for three consecutive weeks, yet no substantial progress has been made in the fifth round of ministerial talks [1]. - Japan's government has been adjusting its negotiation strategy, aiming for the complete removal of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the U.S. seems unwilling to accept these demands [3]. - The Japanese government had hoped to finalize an agreement during the G7 summit in mid-June, but significant differences remain between the two parties [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff measures have severely impacted Japan's automobile and steel industries, contributing to economic pressures as domestic rice prices remain unstable [2]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, with expectations of further economic decline in the second quarter due to the tariff policies [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may hinge on the government's ability to achieve favorable results in the U.S. tariff negotiations, influencing the political landscape [2][5]. Group 3: Strategic Proposals - Japan is proposing to enhance economic security cooperation with the U.S. in sectors such as liquefied natural gas, semiconductors, and shipbuilding, aiming to alleviate U.S. pressures in these areas [3]. - Specific proposals include participation in U.S. LNG development projects and significant purchases of U.S. semiconductor products, along with a joint shipbuilding initiative [3]. Group 4: Broader Context - There are concerns within Japan's economic circles that the country is no longer a priority for the U.S., especially in light of the recent U.S.-China trade dynamics [4]. - The Japanese government’s strategy of leveraging economic security has not garnered the expected attention from the U.S., leaving negotiations in a stalemate [5].

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

证券研究报告 二手船价先于新船价企稳，301对中国造船业冲击逐步修复 ——2025年5月造船订单总结 证券分析师：闫海 A0230519010004 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 2025.6.10 ◼ 301具体落地政策较草案强度大幅减弱，造船利空压力释放：豁免条件显示在美订造船舶可取得豁免，美国民船建造能力差，产业链搭 建难且劳工招募成本高，同时豁免条件增加订单流向日韩压力减弱，叠加日韩船厂产能饱和，一阶段订单流向日韩带动船价提升，二阶 段高价单重新回流中国，当前老船替换主逻辑下，收费设置上限相当于增设附加费，可被造船业供需紧张带动的船价上行覆盖。301落地 后新签订单及船价有望修复。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌，预期落地后，积压造 船需求有望释放，重新带动订单量及船价上行。 ◼ 关税谈判后看好造船进入预期修复阶段，新签订单及船价有望修复：需求端：中美贸易缓和带动航运市场贸易修复，运价上涨后船公司 资产负债表修复，老船替换主逻辑船公司下单意愿增强。供给端：船厂产能依旧紧缺。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造 船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, due to OPEC+ actual production increase lower than expected, improved macro - expectations, and the start of the travel season in Europe and America, oil prices have upward momentum [6][7] - Saudi's actual production increase of 8 member countries hasn't reached the declared level since April. Future attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production increase. If it falls short of expectations, it will support the supply side [6] - In May, due to the suspension of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the three major institutions adjusted demand expectations, with IEA significantly raising and EIA and OPEC adjusting moderately. But due to supply growth expectations from OPEC+ and other countries, the balance sheet adjustment is limited, and the 2nd - 4th quarters still point to inventory accumulation. Continued tariff negotiations may further raise demand expectations but still below pre - tariff - war levels [6] Group 3: Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price | Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Million Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | WTI (main contract) | 63.33 | 64.77 | 64.80 | 62.82 | 2.21 | 28.10 | | Brent (main contract) | 65.26 | 66.65 | 66.67 | 64.80 | 2.00 | 33.53 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/Barrel) | 468.8 | 474.3 | 476.8 | 467.7 | 1.37 | 12.06 | [6] Group 4: Industry News - Iran will respond to the US's new nuclear negotiation proposal on Monday [8] - Israel assured the White House not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless Trump says the negotiation fails [8] - Venezuela plans to raise oil prices by 50% [8] - Morgan Stanley: OPEC+ quota increase hasn't led to a surge in production [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][11][18]

金十数据6月10日讯，据《日经新闻》周二报道，日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正将于本周五至6月18日前往 美国和加拿大进行第六轮关税谈判。报道称，日本政府希望在定于6月15日至17日在加拿大举行的G7峰 会期间与美国就关税谈判达成协议。 日本贸易谈判代表将于6月13日至18日访问美国和加拿大进行谈判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent geopolitical events, particularly involving Trump and the U.S.-China trade negotiations, on the U.S. stock market and outlines potential investment strategies moving forward [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Market Impact - The U.S. stock market has seen stagnant returns since 2025, primarily due to the unrealistic valuations set before Trump's presidency being adjusted through EPS [3]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations have shifted from aggressive stances to more pragmatic approaches, with tariffs becoming less impactful on market dynamics [4]. - The recent U.S.-China economic discussions in the UK may provide short-term market boosts, especially regarding the potential removal of the 20% tariff on fentanyl [4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies and Fiscal Challenges - Trump's domestic reforms have faced significant challenges, with the failure to effectively alter the balance of power within the U.S. government being a notable issue [5][6]. - The "Beautiful America" plan is expected to pass, but its implementation raises questions about fiscal requirements and potential impacts on capital markets [6]. - The U.S. Treasury's TGA account has seen a decline, indicating an urgent need for fiscal financing as it dropped below $400 billion, far from the necessary $800 billion baseline [7][8]. Group 3: Debt Ceiling and Market Reactions - The debt ceiling issue is projected to resurface in 2025, with critical deadlines approaching in July and August, which could lead to significant market volatility [10]. - Historical patterns suggest that budget adjustment bills typically involve raising the debt ceiling, which could lead to increased bond yields and market reactions [10][12]. - The current economic data presents a mixed picture, with soft indicators suggesting a recession while hard data remains robust, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [16]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Portfolio Performance - The article suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a correction following a period of bond issuance, particularly if the debt ceiling is raised without a corresponding interest rate cut [20]. - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 88% since its inception, outperforming the MSCI China index by the same margin [21]. - Recent stock performance in the portfolio has been influenced by the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks and the popularity of certain consumer brands, such as Pop Mart [23]. Group 5: Individual Stock Contributions - Pop Mart's stock rose by 11.1% due to strong product cycles and improved supply chain capabilities [24]. - TSMC's stock increased by 6.1%, maintaining a growth outlook despite tariff uncertainties [24]. - Tesla's stock saw a significant decline of 14.8% amid concerns over regulatory impacts from the ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump [24]. Group 6: Asset Allocation - The Alpha Dolphin portfolio is diversified, with a 52:48 ratio between equity assets and defensive assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [25].

股指或震荡偏强，国债观 望为主 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周五沪深300股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，上证50股指主力合约期货跌0.09%，中证 500股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，中证1000股指主力合约期货跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：美国5月非农好于预期，特朗普仍呼吁降息1个百分点，指责鲍威尔让美国"损失惨重" ，并 称将很快公布下一任美联储主席人选。国务院副总理何立峰于6月8-13日访问英国，其间，与美方举行 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。中国商务部就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问：实施出口管制符合国际通 行做法，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行，股指或震荡偏强运行。 p 技术分析：K ...

日美部长级磋商后，日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正回答记者提问（6月6日，华盛顿） 在日美关税磋商中，日本向美国提出了应对中国的一揽子方案。但与此同时，中美两国表现 出接近的姿态，这可能使日本在美国眼中的优先级下降。日本表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一 步深入"，但同时表示：还未找到一致点…… 日美两国政府正在不断快速推进关税谈判。日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正于美国当地时间6月 6日下午在华盛顿出席第五次部长级磋商。日美最近已连续三周进行高频率谈判。赤泽亮对记 者团表示："以达成协议为目标的讨论进一步取得进展"，但同时也表示"尚未找到一致点"。 考虑到6月中旬的首脑会谈，正在加紧进行协调。 日本首相石破茂6月7日对记者团的提问回答称："据我所知，双方围绕国家利益展开了全力以 赴的认真讨论"。 磋商结束后的6日晚（日本时间7日），赤泽亮正出现在日本驻美大使馆，做出揉眼动作，显 露出疲惫的神情。谈判团的一名成员透露："连续出差让身体有些吃不消了"，"虽然很想休 息，但现在并不是休息的时候"。 关于第五轮谈判的结果，赤泽亮正表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一步深入"，避免提及具体内 容。但同时表示："我们还未找到一致点" 能否进一步 ...