Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3280 per ounce, with an increase of over 1.5% during the day amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade outlooks [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, with expectations for two rate cuts later in the year [3] - The decline in the U.S. credit rating has further weakened the credibility of the dollar, which has already been affected by fluctuating tariff policies from Washington [3] Group 2 - A bullish trend line has been established from the low of 3120 to recent lows, with current gold prices around 3280 showing resistance to further upward movement [5] - The trading strategy suggests waiting for a pullback to around 3263 to enter long positions, with key resistance levels at 3285 and 3300, and a final target of 3318 [5] - Short-term upward breaks do not confirm a trend reversal; a break above 3500 to 3440 is needed to establish a longer-term bullish trend [5]

尼日利亚央行将利率维持在27.50%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 6 | | 锌：上方承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收 ...

每经编辑｜杜宇 5月20日早间，多家主要银行下调存款利率后，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）下行。 据中国人民银行网站5月20日消息，5月20日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期和5年期以上LPR双双下降10个基点。1年期LPR降至3%，5年期 以上LPR降至3.5%。 | | | | 中国人民银行 | | 货币政策司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反 | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | bed | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yields of 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds in China increased. The market responded to the results of the tariff negotiations in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [1][2] - The long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve. The US Treasury yield curve shows a "✓" shape, and the tariff policy and interest rate policy affect each other [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views Q1: How to view the subsequent long - and short - term factors and layout points for bonds? - This week (2025.5.12 - 2025.5.16), the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.416% to 1.445%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.625% to 1.679% [1] - The market's reaction to the tariff negotiation results was basically completed in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [2] Q2: How will the yield of US Treasury bonds change after the release of a series of US data? - This week (0512 - 0516), the long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock (about 4.5%) and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/05/12 to 2025/05/16, the central bank conducted open - market operations, with a net withdrawal of 4751 billion yuan [39] - The money market interest rates and the yields of various bonds showed certain changes this week [41][112] 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area increased, and steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose [60][62] - The prices of coking coal, thermal coal, and crude oil, as well as the vegetable price index and other data showed certain trends [67][70][72] 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 51 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 197.25 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 26.136 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 171.114 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [75] - Eight provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Anhui, Guangxi, and Shandong ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [77] - No local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 1598.944 billion yuan of such bonds have been issued [78] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 50.75 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 430.667 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.85%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [91] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - The local bond issuance plan shows the expected issuance amount and maturity yield changes for different terms [96] 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 125 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 120.549 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.033 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 17.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.311 billion yuan compared with last week [95] - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 25.018 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was 7.534 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amounts of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes were - 40.655 billion yuan, 15.903 billion yuan, - 3.51 billion yuan, 15.262 billion yuan, and - 4.484 billion yuan respectively [101][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds decreasing, and enterprise bonds increasing [106] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total credit bond trading volume was 598.559 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [110] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds increased across the board this week, while the yields of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes generally decreased, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased [112][113][114] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing notes, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all narrowed [116][119][121] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes and enterprise bonds generally narrowed, while the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [126][130][133] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and daily consumption [139] 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - The subject rating of AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the subject rating of Suzhou Shishan Business Innovation Development Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded [143]

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

英国央行利率政策制定者Catherine Mann表示，她投票从支持大幅降息改为按兵不动，因为市场上的剧 烈波动已使借贷成本下降，并为金融条件提供了足够的宽松。在解释近期英国央行会议上其立场波动 时，她指出市场定价的变化、"韧性"的就业数据以及商品通胀的上升。"市场已经给了我75个基点（的 宽松），我只要求了50个基点，"Mann周三上午在接受采访时表示。去年大部分时间里，这位前 花旗 银行经济学家曾被视为英国央行官员中最鹰派的人物。然而，她今年2月突然支持大幅降息50个基点， 令投资者感到意外。随后，她在3月和5月的会议上投票支持维持 利率不变，尽管她的同事在最近一次 会议上投票支持降息25个基点，这一举动再次引起了英国央行观察人士的关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to view interest rates as the primary tool in its policy toolbox, while also acknowledging the potential role of other instruments like targeted loans and balance sheet operations when faced with lower bound constraints [1] Group 1 - Interest rates remain the default policy lever for the ECB [1] - Other tools, such as targeted loans and balance sheet operations, can be effective when interest rates hit their lower limits [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions despite mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][3][5] - Economic data shows a contradiction, with a rise in unemployment to 4.2% and a slight decline in GDP, yet the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains around 50, suggesting stability in the economy [1][3] - Inflation remains a critical factor, with the current inflation rate exceeding 4% and projections indicating it could rise above 6% due to tariffs, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about rate cuts [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain its policy independence and credibility, especially in light of external pressures from political figures, which could undermine its authority if it were to change its decisions based on such pressures [3][5] - The recent fluctuations in the dollar, including a drop from 108 to 99, have raised concerns about capital flight from the U.S. market to emerging markets, which could impact liquidity in the U.S. [5][6] - The decision not to cut rates could have complex implications for global liquidity and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations [6]