Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

2025年07月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：价格转弱 | 6 | | 铅：国内总库存偏高，限制价格反弹 | 8 | | 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 9 | | 铝：短期震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：价格走强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 25 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收 ...

KVB App发现周四这一天，本应是美联储建筑翻新工地里一次寻常的巡视，却因美国总统特朗普与美联储 主席鲍威尔的到场，演变成了一场充满火药味的交锋。两人刚一碰面，就为央行大楼的改造费用争执起 来，气氛瞬间变得紧张。 特朗普一开口就直指预算问题，称原本 25 亿美元的预算已经膨胀到了 31 亿美元，语气中满是不满。面对 总统的指责，鲍威尔并没有退缩，而是冷静地进行反驳。就在两人各执一词时，特朗普从西装内袋里掏出 一张纸，递给了鲍威尔。鲍威尔戴上眼镜，仔细查看这张纸，很快便发现了问题所在，他指着纸上的内 容，语气带着一丝无奈地纠正道："您刚加进了第三栋楼，先生。" 原来，特朗普所说的这栋楼，是美联储 在 2021 年就已经完成翻新的相邻办公楼，显然不该被算进此次的改造预算中。 这场关于预算的争执，只是两人矛盾的冰山一角。《华尔街日报》著名记者 Nick Timiraos，这位素有 "美 联储传声筒" 之称的资深媒体人，在其文章中明确表示，这远远不是特朗普和鲍威尔之间最严重的分歧。 但特朗普显然不满足于此，他把这次非同寻常的工地巡视时刻打造成政治剧场，就是要利用舆论的力量， 给鲍威尔制造更多的公众压力。他试图让民众 ...

2025.07. 24 本文字数：1454，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 24日，欧洲央行（下称"欧央行"）宣布三大关键利率维持不变——存款利率为2.00%，主要再融资利 率为2.15%，边际贷款利率为2.40%，结束此前连续七次降息的进程。 该决议声明显示，最新经济和通胀数据"大致符合此前评估"，目前国内价格压力持续缓解，工资增速 也出现放缓，表明前期政策调整已部分传导至实体经济。欧央行重申将继续采取"依赖数据、逐次评 估"的方式决定未来利率路径，强调"不会预设特定方向"。 在随后新闻发布会上，欧央行行长拉加德表示，当前利率水平"处于合理区间"，货币政策正在为实现 2%的中期通胀目标发挥支持作用。她同时表示，虽然家庭消费受到就业和实际收入改善的支撑， 但"欧元走强和更高关税可能使企业投资面临更多障碍"。 德意志银行首席欧洲经济学家沃尔（Mark Wall）认为，欧央行此举"释放出更为谨慎的信号"，显示 政策层目前更倾向于等待局势明朗后再行决策。他表示，"只要外部风险仍未解除，欧央行就没有必 要急于推进新一轮宽松。" 荷兰AFS集团研究总监阿恩·佩蒂梅萨斯（Arne Petimezas）亦表 ...

有欧洲央行官员表示，欧洲央行官员对于9月的基本预期是继续维持 利率不变。 ...

欧洲央行官员：那些寻求进一步降息的人将面临一场艰难的较量。欧洲央行官员对于9月的基本预期是 继续维持利率不变。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the deposit rate at 2%, marking the first time in over a year that rates have not been changed, aligning with market expectations [1] - The ECB's statement highlights that inflation is currently at the mid-term target level of 2%, but the economic outlook remains highly uncertain due to factors such as trade disputes [1] - There is speculation among investors that the ECB may lower rates by 22 basis points by the end of the year, with a final 25 basis point cut anticipated in September [1] Group 2 - The ECB's meeting coincides with a critical deadline for U.S. tariffs, with reports suggesting optimism about reaching a 15% tariff agreement [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has warned of stagnation in economic growth for the second and third quarters due to businesses preparing for potential higher tariffs [2] - The euro has appreciated over 13% against the dollar this year, which could exert upward pressure on consumer prices, prompting concerns from various ECB officials about inflation potentially remaining below target levels [2]

智通财经7月24日电，欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率在2.15%不变，维持存款机制利率在2%不变，边际 贷款利率2.4%不变，均符合市场预期。 欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 符合市场预期 ...

Core Points - President Trump is set to visit the Federal Reserve, intensifying pressure on Chairman Powell regarding monetary policy and raising concerns about the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project [1][2] - Trump has publicly called for a significant interest rate cut from the current 4.25%-4.5% to 1% to reduce the government's refinancing costs of $1 trillion [1][3] - The visit is seen as a potential threat to the independence of the central bank, which has historically maintained a separate relationship from the White House [3][4] Renovation Project Controversy - Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve focuses on the $2.5 billion renovation project and what he perceives as overly conservative interest rate policies [2] - White House officials have expressed interest in inspecting the renovation, with some suggesting that the project is excessively costly [2] - The Federal Reserve has responded to criticisms by providing virtual tours of the renovation site and clarifying that certain luxury features have been scaled back [2] Monetary Policy Disputes - Trump's actions signify an escalation in his pressure on the Federal Reserve, with demands for a 3 percentage point reduction in interest rates to lower government borrowing costs [3] - There is internal disagreement among administration officials regarding whether Powell should be dismissed, with some suggesting he should remain until the end of his term in May [3][4] - The potential for Trump's actions to undermine the long-standing principle of central bank independence has raised concerns in the market [3] Legal Implications - If Trump were to attempt to dismiss Powell, it could have significant legal ramifications, as the president lacks the authority to remove Federal Reserve officials without just cause [4] Historical Context - Presidential visits to the Federal Reserve are rare, with Trump's visit being only the third instance since 1937, following visits by Presidents Ford and Roosevelt [5]

今日周三(7月23日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于39.21一线下方，今日开盘于39.24美元/盎司，截至发稿，现货白银 暂报39.19美元/盎司，下跌0.23%，最高触及39.34美元/盎司，最低下探39.11美元/盎司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线 偏向看跌走势。 特朗普在白宫的新闻发布会上毫不掩饰对美联储主席鲍威尔的强烈不满。他直言不讳地称鲍威尔为"傻瓜"，批评其将 利率维持在过高的水平，阻碍了美国经济的进一步腾飞。特朗普表示："我认为他做得不好，但无论如何，他很快就会 走人。八个月后，他就会走人。"这一言论令人震惊，因为鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将持续到2026年5月15日，而八个 月后的时间点恰好是2026年3月中旬。目前，特朗普为何选择这一时间框架仍是个谜，引发了外界对鲍威尔是否会提前 离职的猜测。 特朗普对鲍威尔的批评并非新鲜事。过去几个月，他多次公开抨击鲍威尔，称其不愿降息的政策损害了美国民众的利 益。特朗普认为，当前美国经济表现强劲，"正在创下纪录"，但高利率却让普通民众难以承受购房压力。他在发布会 上情绪激动地说："我们的经济现在如此强劲，突破一切。但你知道吗？人们买不起房子，就因为这家伙是个傻 ...