汽车行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 2026 年乘用车市场内需受政策透支和购置税退坡影响，预计上牌量同 比下降 2.5%，但新能源汽车渗透率提升将部分抵消这一影响。出口方 面，受益于国内主机厂海外布局和新能源汽车性价比优势，预计出口增 速保持 15%以上。 重卡市场受益于以旧换新政策，但国四车型消化后，政策刺激减弱，预 计 2026 年销量为 106 万辆。客车市场受高基数影响增速放缓，预计明 年增速约为 5%，主要依赖海外新能源客车渗透率提升。 摩托车出口维持高景气度，预计明年出口增速约为 15%，国内市场大排 量摩托车渗透率提升，总体行业增速约为 7%。隆鑫、春风等国内品牌 在海外渠道布局进入收获期。 汽车板块投资机会在于拓展海外市场、国产替代和 AI 赋能。海外市场潜 力巨大，自主品牌新能源汽车出海空间广阔，预计 2026 年新能源乘用 车出口接近 240 万辆，同比增长翻倍。 中国汽车零部件在海外市场具有巨大成长空间，预计有两倍以上增长。 欧洲市场对新能源汽车的需求加速，为中国零部件出海提供机遇，中国 汽零企业已积累先发优势。 Q&A 2026 年汽车板块的投资策略是什么？ 20 ...

2025年收官之际，券商对A股市场进行深度复盘与前瞻，认为2026年A股将延续"低斜率慢牛"格局，在 政策托底与经济内生复苏共振下，市场有望向上突破。其中，科技成长（AI+、先进制造）、"反内 卷"及供需改善、人民币升值受益链等方向将成为核心投资主线。 政策与流动性驱动结构性行情 2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议关于2026年经济工作强调，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 华龙证券研究所策略分析师朱金金认为，中美经贸关系总体稳定，但仍存在潜在不确定性。一方面，已 达成的部分共识设定了时效，后续需开展进一步磋商。另一方面，2026年为美国中期选举年，是影响中 美关系节奏的重要变量。"十五五"规划建议为未来五年的产业发展描绘了清晰的航向，核心是构建以科 技创新为引领、以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。机遇蕴藏在产业结构的升级浪潮中、新质生产 力的培育领域，以及全国统一大市场建设和高水平对外开放所带来的广阔空间里。 科技与先进制造有望获政策支持 投资策略上，朱金金建议关注， "十五五"规划建议提到的经济社会发展目标前两项为"高质 ...

Group 1 - The annual report of public funds for 2025 shows significant performance, with the top fund, Yongying Technology Smart A, achieving a return of 233.29% and a scale of 11.52 billion [1][9] - The second and third positions are held by Zhonghang Opportunity Leading A with a return of 168.92% and Hongtu Innovation Emerging Industry A with a return of 148.64%, with scales of 13.23 billion and 14.86 billion respectively [1][9] - The total scale of public funds reached 35.89 trillion, an increase of 3.65 trillion from the beginning of the year, with a total of 13,610 funds [5][13] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the core theme of market opportunities is expected to be driven by AI-induced industrial transformation, with a focus on fundamental verification rather than liquidity-driven optimism [2][10] - The cloud computing sector is anticipated to see sustained growth in demand due to the acceleration of AI applications, alongside stable competition in core areas like optical communication and PCB [2][10] - The investment focus is shifting from AI hardware to application sectors, particularly in smart driving, AI hardware (such as AI phones and AR glasses), and humanoid robots [3][11] Group 3 - The performance of funds over the past three years shows Dongwu New Trend Value Line leading with a cumulative return of 273.85%, followed by Dongwu Mobile Internet A at 262.23% and Huaxia North Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Selection at 260.42% [3][11] - The bottom performers include Huafu Medical Innovation A with a return of -26.15% and CITIC Construction Low Carbon Growth A with a return of -51.87% over three years [4][12] - The public fund market has experienced sharp performance differentiation amid macro narrative changes, highlighting the potential for high-quality growth in the coming years [8][15]

面壁智能公共事务负责人郭洁昕向记者介绍，东南亚、欧洲、南美等地的网络并没有实时性，那么断网 环境中的智能应用就会成为一个刚需。面壁智能和中科创达（300496）一起做的智能座舱场景应用，里 面内置了面壁的mini cpm的端测模型，在智驾的场景可以不联网实现智能的功能。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a structural market outlook for the North Exchange, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and strong growth potential, such as robotics, commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and smart driving [3]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached 19.08 billion yuan on December 30, 2025, an increase of 610 million yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1450.64, down 0.40% [7][3]. - The report highlights the upcoming listing of Hengtong Light, a national-level specialized and innovative company in the optical communication sector, which is expected to attract market attention due to its strong performance and applications in AI data centers [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the market, driven by policy dividends, expectations of new capital inflows, and the supply of quality new stocks [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On December 30, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares trading volume was 19.08 billion yuan, with 287 companies listed, of which 106 rose, 6 remained flat, and 175 fell [7][16]. - The top five gainers included Tianming Technology (30.0%), Fengguang Precision (17.6%), and Chunguang Intelligent (11.0%), while the top five losers included *ST Guandao (-29.5%) and Tianli Composite (-11.7%) [16][17]. Important News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments issued a plan for the digital transformation of the automotive industry, aiming to enhance the maturity level of intelligent manufacturing capabilities by 2027 [18]. - Several eVTOL products are expected to obtain certification in 2026, indicating a burgeoning low-altitude economy market [19]. Key Company Announcements - Ainanju plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1,471,700 shares, accounting for 1.1309% of the total share capital [22]. - Qilu Huaxin announced the lifting of restrictions on 1,352,000 shares, representing 0.97% of the total share capital, effective January 8, 2026 [20].

Core Viewpoint - Yuanrong Qixing aims to achieve a delivery target of 1 million units by 2026, driven by the rapid increase in monthly deliveries of its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [1][5]. Group 1: Delivery Performance - In November, Yuanrong Qixing's city NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) system exceeded 40,000 units in monthly deliveries, with previous months seeing over 10,000 and 30,000 units delivered in June and September, respectively [2]. - The total delivery volume for Yuanrong Qixing is expected to surpass 200,000 units this year, while competitor Momenta is projected to deliver approximately 350,000 to 400,000 units, with a cumulative total exceeding 600,000 units by the end of the year [2]. Group 2: Product Line and Sales - More than 10 vehicle models are currently in mass production with Yuanrong Qixing's ADAS, with three models showing particularly strong sales performance [4]. - The Weipai Lanshan, which debuted in November 2024, has sold over 50,000 units in the past year, while the Weipai Gaoshan has approached 50,000 units in sales within six months. The Geely Galaxy M9 has also seen monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units for the past two months [5]. - Additional models from Great Wall Motors, including the Tank 500 and Tank 400, are also equipped with Yuanrong Qixing's systems, contributing to the rapid increase in delivery scale [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The emergence of popular models has instilled confidence in Yuanrong Qixing's delivery prospects for the upcoming year, with expectations of doubling supply to Great Wall Motors as more models adopt its systems [5]. - The competitive landscape in the smart driving industry is anticipated to intensify by 2026, with a more pronounced clustering effect among leading companies [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese intelligent driving industry is experiencing both expansion and contraction, with rapid adoption of assisted driving features in mass-produced vehicles, while financing for some companies is slowing down, leading to exits from mainstream competition [1][2] - The competition in the intelligent driving sector has shifted towards large-scale delivery, cost efficiency, and long-term service capabilities, with opportunities concentrating on a few companies that can prove their value [2][4] - The industry is entering a mature phase, as evidenced by significant orders from conservative automakers like Toyota, indicating a shift from vague to definite market demand [5][6] Industry Dynamics - The competition is no longer about validating technology but about scaling delivery and maintaining cost efficiency, with survival becoming a pressing issue for mid-tier companies [2][4] - The leading companies in the assisted driving sector include Horizon, ZhiYu, Huawei, and Momenta, which have successfully transitioned from technology validation to large-scale delivery [4][5] - The gap between leading companies and newcomers is estimated to be 3 to 5 years, primarily due to data accumulation advantages and algorithm iteration capabilities [4][5] Market Trends - The assisted driving market is seeing a push towards lower-cost models, with major players like Horizon and Momenta targeting vehicles priced under 100,000 yuan, which account for nearly half of China's passenger car sales [8][9] - The competition is intensifying around cost control, as companies strive to keep the cost of assisted driving features within 3% to 5% of the vehicle's price to ensure market acceptance [9][10] - The trend towards self-developed chips is debated, with some companies believing it can lead to differentiation and lower system costs, while others see it as economically challenging [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The intelligent driving sector is unlikely to see a "winner-takes-all" scenario until the L4 or L5 stages of automation, as the current market remains fragmented with multiple strong players [8][11] - Companies that can continuously iterate, validate their solutions through mass production, and respond to market demands will be the ones to secure future growth [11] - The supply chain strategies of automakers suggest that the assisted driving market will not favor a single dominant player, as diverse needs for customization and differentiation persist [7][8]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive export sector has shown resilience and exceeded expectations in 2025, with a projected total export volume of 8 million vehicles, driven primarily by a 62% increase in new energy vehicle exports [2][4] - The export landscape is evolving, with a shift towards emerging markets and innovative export models, including local resource integration and technology transfer [2][4][6] Group 1: Export Performance - In the first eleven months of 2025, cumulative automotive exports reached 7.33 million units, marking a 25.7% year-on-year increase [2] - The strong performance in exports has prompted a reassessment of earlier predictions, which anticipated only a 10% growth rate due to geopolitical challenges and tariff pressures [2][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The export market is witnessing a reconfiguration, with Chinese automakers aggressively targeting Europe while simultaneously expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [4][5] - Mexico is emerging as a key overseas market for Chinese vehicles, with brands like BYD and Xpeng establishing a presence [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The export strategy is transitioning from merely selling vehicles to a more integrated approach involving technology, standards, and supply chain collaboration [6] - Localized production is becoming a focal point, with several Chinese automakers establishing factories in Europe to enhance their market presence [5][6] Group 4: Future Challenges - The upcoming years will present significant challenges, particularly in navigating stringent European regulations and establishing brand credibility [7][8] - The 2026 landscape will see a focus on smart technology exports, with L3 autonomous driving expected to become commercially viable, further enhancing the value proposition of Chinese automotive brands [7][9] Group 5: Collaborative Approaches - Companies are exploring innovative models to mitigate risks associated with entering the European market, including partnerships with established suppliers and local entities [9] - The trend of "technology for market access" is resurfacing, as some European nations seek collaboration with Chinese firms in the face of their own technological challenges [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855, down 0.86% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.74% to 5,578, with a year-to-date increase of 24.85%[1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.12% to 8,991, with a year-to-date rise of 23.34%[1] Sector Performance - Baidu's stock surged nearly 9% due to advancements in AI and smart cloud business, with significant growth in its self-developed AI chip and smart driving orders[7] - The semiconductor sector saw strong gains, with InnoTek rising over 15% and SMIC up more than 4% following Nvidia's announcement of partnerships for a new power architecture[7] - Robotics stocks were active, with Yujing Technology up over 13% and Sanhua Intelligent Control up over 12%, supported by a significant increase in industrial robot production[7] Oil and Entertainment - Oil stocks continued to perform well, with CNOOC rising nearly 4% as international oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions[7] - The entertainment sector saw a boost, with Emperor Culture Industries rising nearly 9% as the 2025 New Year box office surpassed 5.3 billion yuan, a near eight-year high[7] Economic Indicators - The WTI crude oil price surpassed $58 per barrel, while Brent crude approached $62 per barrel, driven by rising geopolitical risks[7] - The US Federal Reserve indicated potential future interest rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, as noted in the December meeting minutes[11]

在新能源汽车市场持续演进与竞争的背景下，各类车企的发展动态成为行业关注的焦点。近期，部分曾 被归类为"造车新势力"的企业在自我定位上出现了一些表述上的调整，这引发了外界对于市场阶段与竞 争格局变化的讨论。与此同时，一些具备深厚工业积淀的传统汽车品牌，则在市场销量上呈现出稳步发 展的态势。一汽奔腾作为中国汽车工业的代表性品牌之一，其近期的市场数据与转型举措，为我们提供 了一个观察传统车企在行业变革中实践的窗口。 增长轨迹：稳健中加速 一汽奔腾近期公布的数据表明，其转型已步入一个关键节点：2025年11月，品牌整体销量同比增长，其 中新能源车型的销售占比已稳定在八成以上的高位。这一结构性转变，勾勒出一条不同于"网红爆款"模 式的增长曲线。 回溯近三年轨迹，其增长具有明显的阶段性和系统性特征。2023年的销量，可视为品牌在新能源转型初 期蓄力后建立的业绩基准。进入2024年，随着"悦意"序列首款车型落地及渠道调整深化，销量实现显著 同比提升，显示出市场对新策略的初步认可。至2025年，在更高的基数上，品牌整体销量不仅再创历史 新高，更重要的是完成了新能源产品对销售贡献的主导，这意味着其增长动能已实现新旧转换。 产品 ...