Core Viewpoint - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have both surpassed the 7.08 mark, reaching their highest levels since mid-October of the previous year, indicating a strong performance of the RMB against the USD [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of November 27, the onshore RMB to USD rate was reported at 7.07990, while the offshore rate was at 7.07605 [1] - The RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 17 basis points to 7.0779, with a year-to-date increase of over 1000 basis points [1] - The onshore RMB has appreciated nearly 3% against the USD this year, while the offshore RMB has appreciated approximately 3.5% [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The USD index has been fluctuating around the 100 mark, maintaining overall strength, yet the RMB has shown resilience, achieving a new high against a basket of currencies [1] - According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in October, banks settled $214.2 billion and sold $196.5 billion in foreign exchange, with foreign income at $623.1 billion and payments at $571.9 billion [1] - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely exhibit a stable trend, with minor fluctuations against the USD [1][2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Citic Securities' chief economist forecasts a moderate appreciation of the RMB exchange rate by 2026 [1] - Wealth research director Liu Youhua suggests that the RMB central parity has the potential to test the "7" mark in the future [1] - Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing believes that the RMB exchange rate will primarily maintain stability, with relatively small fluctuations against the USD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese Yuan has appreciated significantly, rising over 1000 basis points since the beginning of the year, influenced by both external and internal factors [1][7][15] - External factors include concerns over potential tariff increases by Trump, which initially created depreciation pressure on the Yuan, but the central bank managed to stabilize the market through its middle rate [3][5] - The outlook for the Yuan's appreciation is supported by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the diminishing impact of tariffs on the US economy, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][15] Group 2 - Domestic fundamentals are seen as supportive for the Yuan, with any strong growth-promoting policies likely to impact the exchange rate positively [7][9] - There is a backlog of demand for currency conversion, which is expected to be released as the Yuan appreciates, further supporting its upward trend [7][9] - On November 26, the Yuan broke the 7.08 mark, with the offshore rate at 7.07499 and the central bank's middle rate adjusted up by 30 basis points [11][13] Group 3 - The cumulative increase in the middle rate has exceeded 1000 basis points this year, marking significant milestones in the current market trend [13][15] - The market will continue to monitor the performance of the US dollar and the central bank's adjustments to the middle rate in the short term [13][15] - Long-term appreciation of the Yuan is possible if there are no major external changes, domestic growth efforts are effective, and demand for currency conversion continues to be released [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has garnered significant market attention, with the yuan's mid-price rising to 7.0779, the highest since October 14, 2024, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Yuan Strengthening - The yuan's recent strength is attributed to two main factors: the continuous adjustment of the yuan's mid-price towards a stronger direction and the overall positive performance of the domestic economy, which has not fully matched the depreciation of the dollar [2][3]. - Increased demand for currency conversion (结汇) due to better-than-expected export performance and a recovering capital market has bolstered confidence in the yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Impacts of Yuan Strengthening - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to boost market confidence, particularly among foreign investors, making holding yuan-denominated assets more attractive and potentially leading to increased capital inflows into Chinese stock and bond markets [5][6]. - For foreign trade enterprises, the yuan's appreciation may pose challenges by making exports more expensive, while simultaneously reducing import costs for businesses reliant on imported goods [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The yuan is likely to maintain a strong position in the short term, influenced by the dollar's performance, the central bank's control over the mid-price, and domestic economic growth policies [7][8]. - While the yuan may experience fluctuations, a significant appreciation beyond 7.0 against the dollar before the end of the year is considered unlikely, with a stable dual-directional fluctuation expected through 2026 [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a short-term bullish trend driven by multiple favorable factors, but it is facing critical technical resistance levels. Group 1: Influencing Factors - The market has significantly increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to approximately 85%, following dovish comments from several Fed officials [2] - U.S. retail sales data for September fell short of expectations, and the consumer confidence index declined, indicating potential economic cooling [2] - The U.S. dollar index has dropped to a one-week low, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains near a one-month low [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are encountering trendline resistance around the $4173-$4175 range, leading to a consolidation phase after a recent spike in this area [4] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy leans towards a bearish outlook, with short positions recommended if prices rebound to the $4170-$4175 range, targeting $4150-$4130 with a stop loss of $10 [5] - If support is found in the $4130-$4140 range, a long position may be considered, targeting $4150-$4160 with a stop loss of $10 [5] - A strong breakdown below the $4130 support could lead to further declines towards $4110-$4100, while a strong breakout above $4175 could push prices towards $4185 or even $4200 [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on November 27 will lead to a market closure, resulting in significantly reduced liquidity and potentially increased volatility, with major price movements expected primarily during the Asian and European trading sessions [6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, the bullish logic for gold remains intact, supported by the ongoing trend of global central bank gold purchases and the overarching direction of Fed rate cuts, suggesting a strategy of "buying on dips" [7]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around $4150, with a latest quote of $4152.59 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.23% [1] - The highest price reached was $4168.19 per ounce, while the lowest was $4142.12 per ounce, indicating a short-term oscillating trend for London gold [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index continues to decline as Thanksgiving approaches, with September durable goods orders showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, which is a slowdown compared to August's 2.9% [2] - Core durable goods orders, excluding transportation, increased by 0.6%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2% and previous value of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that US economic activity is nearly stagnant, with half of the employers in 12 Federal Reserve districts showing decreased hiring intentions [2] Group 3 - The recent gold market analysis indicates a small upward movement, remaining above the 5-day moving average, with a double bottom established on the 4-hour chart [3] - The first resistance level to watch is around $4180, and if this level is broken, the market may target $4200 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to China's economic recovery, strong foreign trade performance, and the weakening of the US dollar index, with the RMB reaching a new high against the dollar since last year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On November 25, both offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 7.09 mark, reaching a high not seen in over a year [1]. - The People's Bank of China reported the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1000 basis points [1]. - The three major RMB exchange rate indices have risen to their highest levels since early April, with the CFETS index at 98.22, the BIS index at 104.66, and the SDR index at 92.60 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Experts attribute the RMB's strong performance to its favorable fundamentals and capital flows relative to non-USD currencies, supported by a recovering domestic economy and robust foreign trade [1][2]. - The outlook for the RMB in 2026 is positive, driven by domestic economic recovery, accelerated technological innovation, stabilization of US-China trade relations, and potential further weakening of the US dollar due to credit issues and possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming for stability in the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by multiple factors, including policy guidance, economic fundamentals, and external environment changes [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Guidance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been signaling a stronger RMB through the continuous adjustment of the central parity rate, which was set at 7.0796 yuan per dollar, up by 30 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The current exchange rate regulation is aimed at promoting a stable environment for foreign trade enterprises, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index showing moderate upward movement [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB's appreciation is supported by robust economic fundamentals, with exports exceeding expectations and a noticeable recovery in the capital markets since July [1]. - Increased demand for foreign exchange settlements from enterprises has boosted market confidence in the RMB, while cross-border capital flows remain stable and orderly [1]. Group 3: External Environment - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for another rate cut in December, contributing to a limited upward space for the US dollar index [1][2]. - Weakening US economic data, including slowing retail sales growth and signs of a softening labor market, have heightened concerns about the economic outlook, further supporting the RMB's strength [1]. Group 4: Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors are also at play, as the fourth quarter typically sees a peak in foreign exchange settlements, maintaining high corporate settlement intentions [2]. - The ongoing trend of cross-border capital inflows provides additional momentum for the RMB's appreciation [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a steady and strong trend, with limited volatility against the US dollar due to the Fed's rate cut expectations and significant depreciation of the dollar since the beginning of the year [2]. - The RMB's exchange rate is likely to remain stable, exhibiting a reverse fluctuation pattern with the US dollar, with relatively small amplitude [2].

每经编辑｜陈柯名 11月26日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率延续升值势头，盘中双双升破7.08。 同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报7.0796，较上个交易日调高30个基点。 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 美元/人民币(离) ▶ √ ◀ USDCNH 7.07370 7.07409 高 7.07421 开 7.06868 买 版 0.00509 0.07% 低 7.06539 振幅 0.12% 7.07447 分时 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 五日 更多▼ (0) 时间09:39 最新:7.07409 0.00509 +0.07200% 7.07421 +0.07% 0.00% 7.06379 -0.07% 18:00 05:59 06:00 0.00099 MACDFS(12,26,9) = 2 MACDFS:+0.000 DIFF:+0.001 DEA:+0.001 对于人民币对美元汇率的走升，中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，近期中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）稳汇率政策保持 一定力度，叠加年末、季末临近，结汇需求或阶段性 ...

在2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中，人民银行强调，要坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货 币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币对美元汇率中间价持续向偏强方向调整，这与中国经济 稳健发展，而同期美元汇率下跌有关。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，今年，在国际经济形势不确定性增加的背景下，人民币不跌反 涨，反映了中国经济回升向好、美元指数走弱等多重因素的综合影响，预计上述因素仍将对未来人民币 汇率走势形成支撑。 管涛认为，2026年人民币汇率走势或面临多重利好因素：一是国内经济回升向好，科技创新步伐进一步 加快；二是中美经贸关系趋于稳定，提振市场情绪；三是美元信用裂痕或将进一步扩大；四是美联储恢 复降息或将驱动美元走弱。 在王青看来，市场普遍预期美联储未来可能继续降息，短期内美元指数上行空间有限。而我国经济基本 面将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑，预计一段时间内人民币仍将处于稳健偏强状态。 近期，全球汇市波动加剧，而人民币对美元走势稳中偏强。11月25日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects a dual strength in both currencies, with the RMB reaching a high point not seen in over a year, supported by various economic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted upwards on November 26, reaching around 7.08, with both onshore and offshore RMB showing gains [1]. - The USD index has risen from approximately 96 in mid-September to around 100, while the RMB has shown an upward trend against the dollar, indicating a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has demonstrated resilience this year, with enhanced export strength and a favorable international balance of payments, totaling $11.6 trillion in foreign exchange receipts for the first three quarters, a historical high for the period [1]. - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border capital, surpassing the previous year's figures, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to further support the RMB's strength, alongside the traditional seasonal peak for currency settlement at year-end [2]. - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable amid complex international conditions, with a general expectation for the RMB to maintain stability or even appreciate in the near term [2]. - Companies are increasingly adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, improving their risk management capabilities, which is expected to solidify the foundation for a stable RMB exchange rate [2].