Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, breaking historical resistance levels and reaching new highs, with expectations for continued upward movement despite some short-term fluctuations [1][3][6]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3579.93 per ounce, hitting a low of $3578.09 before rebounding to a weekly high of $3674.36, ultimately closing at $3642.15, marking a weekly increase of $54.64 or 1.47% from the previous week's close of $3589.51 [3][4]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $96.27, indicating significant volatility in the market [3]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was driven by weak U.S. labor data and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant downward revision of U.S. employment data [3][6]. - The market faced pressure from a strong U.S. stock market and negative expectations from the U.S. CPI data, which led to profit-taking and a subsequent price drop [3][4]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations that if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold prices could easily surpass $3700, potentially reaching $4000 [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to experience continued upward momentum due to ongoing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would further support gold prices [6][7]. - The geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with the U.S. government's tax and tariff policies, are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish phase, having broken through historical highs, and is expected to continue this trend over the next year, with potential targets of $4200 or higher [7][8]. - Short-term technical indicators suggest a potential for price corrections, but the overall trend remains positive, with key support levels to watch [8][10].

Core Insights - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts and strong domestic stock market performance [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a clear signal for interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut [1] - US employment and inflation data have strengthened the anticipation of a rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which provides passive appreciation momentum for non-USD currencies [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic stock market has shown strength, resulting in accelerated foreign capital inflows, which have increased demand for currency exchange and improved market sentiment [1] - The central bank's management of the RMB's midpoint rate has played a significant role in maintaining a stronger RMB [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the RMB is expected to continue operating on a stronger trajectory, with future attention needed on the movements of the USD and the central bank's control over the RMB midpoint rate [1]

"6月下旬CFETS（中国外汇交易中心）等三大人民币汇率指数降至年内低点后，中间价调控力度开始加 大。这不仅推动了人民币对美元汇率上升，其主要目标更是引导一篮子货币人民币汇率指数适度上 行。"王青认为，这背后或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇率虽有所 升值但未能与之充分匹配有关。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，近期人民币对美元汇率的升值，主要受到美元指数偏弱运行创造的相 对温和的外部环境、央行中间价报价释放较强汇率预期引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼、吸引外 资流入等内外因素共振的驱动。 短期内，王青预计，综合各类影响因素，人民币汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态。未来需重点关注美元走势 和人民币中间价调控力度。 明明则认为，人民币汇率有望保持偏强的态势，并逐步回归"三价合一"。随着年底临近，若人民币汇率 能维持偏强震荡，预计相关结汇需求将继续支撑人民币汇率。 （文章来源：证券日报） 8月下旬以来，人民币对美元汇率保持稳中偏强态势。 Wind资讯数据显示，8月21日以来截至9月13日（北京时间，下同），在岸人民币对美元汇率上涨 0.79%，而更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率则上涨 ...

Economic Activity - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of September 9, 2025, is 0.98, a decrease of 0.06 from September 2 [1][3] - Key industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" have declined, with the coastal coal freight index at 0.71, the lowest since June [1][3] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [42] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetable and pork prices dropping by 15.2% and 16.1% year-on-year, respectively [42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline in production material prices narrowing to 3.2% [42][2] Monetary Policy - As of September 9, 2025, the central bank net withdrew 948.8 billion yuan through open market operations, with a reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5][6] Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate rose by 12 basis points to 1.48%, while the seven-day repo rate increased by 3 basis points to 1.49% [9][10] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds increased by 3.46, 1.35, and 4.74 basis points, respectively [14] Industrial Sector - As of September 9, 2025, steel billet prices increased by 1.69% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.01% [23][24] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills remained stable at 69.79%, while long-process steel mills saw a decline to 50.00% [23] Shipping Sector - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index fell by 59.07 points to 994.29 points, while the Baltic Dry Index rose by 93 points to 2079 points [31] Real Estate Market - In the week ending September 9, 2025, new and second-hand home transaction areas in first-tier cities decreased by 24.64% and 4.17%, respectively [35][36] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index decreased by 0.54 points to 97.77, while the RMB appreciated by 228 basis points to 7.1248 against the dollar [44][45]

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.08% to 97.61, indicating a slight strengthening of the dollar against a basket of currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced a decline, with the euro down 0.01% to 1.1736 against the dollar [1] - The British pound fell by 0.13% to 1.3555, while the Australian dollar decreased by 0.16% to 0.6650 against the dollar [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.30% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.6600 [1] - The dollar also rose by 0.10% against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3847 [1] - Additionally, the dollar increased by 0.09% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.7966 [1]

Inflation and Employment Data - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year to 2.9%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1% to 3.1%, marking a six-month high[2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, with the dollar index remaining in a weak adjustment zone[2] - The conflicting data of strong inflation and weak employment may complicate the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path[3] Core CPI and Contributing Factors - The core CPI's 0.35% month-on-month increase in August is the highest in seven months, driven by accelerated tariff transmission and rising rents[3] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices[3] Future Economic Outlook - The sustainability of inflationary pressures is likely, with ongoing tariff impacts and stable wage growth contributing to core inflation[3] - The potential effects of a new tax cut plan on consumer demand and labor market dynamics could influence the Fed's rate decisions in 2026[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Current conditions suggest a favorable window for monetary policy easing, with a potential 10 basis point rate cut to stabilize the real estate market[4] - Risks include the possibility of the Fed's rate cuts falling short of market expectations, which could constrain domestic monetary easing[4]

–美元走弱、资本回流叠加中国经济回稳，汇率市场正在重新定价 l 最近换美元是不是感觉有点"不划算"？没错，人民币正在悄悄变强，中间价逼近7.1，热闹得让空头有点坐不住。这背后可不是偶然，而是一场内外合力的 结果。 外因：美联储"放鸽"，美元低头。美联储在杰克逊霍尔年会释放降息信号，市场预期9月降息概率飙升至八成以上。结果美元指数自高点跌近一成，跌破98 关口。美元一旦走弱，非美货币全体反弹，人民币顺势迎来补涨。 内因：政策护航，资本追捧。央行发行离岸央票，收紧部分流动性，释放稳定预期的信号。与此同时，A股8月强势反弹，外资净流入超22亿美元，股汇联 动效应推升人民币结汇需求，升值动能明显增强。 底气：经济韧性，未来可期。更深层的支撑来自中国经济本身。促消费、支持科创、绿色转型等政策组合拳发力，新质生产力持续壮大，宏观经济稳中向 好。这才是人民币长期稳定的"压舱石"。 展望未来，"稳中有升、双向波动"仍是主旋律。企业与个人应顺势而为，管好风险敞口，别幻想一边倒的行情。人民币的强势，更像是一场长期的耐力赛， 而不是短跑冲刺。 （唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成稿后，经AI审阅校对） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple internal and external factors, including a weak USD index, strong domestic equity market performance, and favorable monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. External Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, particularly the indication of a potential rate cut in September, has significantly impacted the currency market, leading to a nearly 10% decline in the USD index since the beginning of the year [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is partly due to the accelerated rise in the RMB/USD central parity rate, with the central bank recently issuing 45 billion yuan in offshore RMB central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity [3][4]. Internal Factors - The recovery of China's capital market has attracted cross-border capital inflows, with significant increases in major stock indices: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13% in August [4]. - Continuous expansion of the trade surplus in recent months has provided real demand-side support for the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing improvement in China's economic fundamentals, driven by structural transformation and supportive policies, is expected to provide long-term support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely maintain a steady trend, with expectations of a gradual convergence of onshore, offshore, and central parity rates [5].

与此同时，美元指数震荡，截至9时30分，报97.6007。 华福证券研报称，进入9月，美元出现波动反弹，但人民币汇率依然存在长期强支撑。一方面是弱美元 外部环境，特朗普频繁施压、动摇美联储独立性；美国经济存在不确定性，8月美国非农数据远低于预 期、失业率升至2021年以来最高；另一方面是中国经济稳中向好，7月份我国出口数据保持韧性。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月12日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘上涨，报 7.1184，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1235。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1154。 同日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1019，上调15个基点。 ...

Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]