基本面： 周三（8月20日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅延续隔夜跌势测试3310一线支撑，目前暂交投于3314美元附近。周二，现货黄金价格小幅下跌0.5%，收报每盎司 3315.45美元，甚至一度触及8月1日以来的最低点3314.80美元，本次下跌受到了美元走强、地缘政治不确定性以及美联储政策预期的多重影响。投资者们正 屏息以待本周晚些时候在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度研讨会，特别是主席鲍威尔周五的讲话，这被视为可能决定黄金未来走势的关键节点，市场 担忧鲍威尔可能会淡化降息前景，这给美元提供反弹动能，并压制金价。 美联储的政策动向无疑是黄金价格波动的核心驱动力。然而，市场对鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话的预期却充满不确定性。鲍威尔以往在该会议上的表态往往具 有里程碑意义，例如2022年他曾释放出抗击通胀的鹰派立场，如今投资者担心他可能会淡化9月降息的预期，尤其是考虑到7月生产者物价指数（PPI）高于 预期，这在一定程度上打击了降息押注。根据CME的FedWatch工具，交易员们认为9月份降息25个基点的可能性高达85%。 除了货币政策，地缘政治因素也在悄然影响黄金的避险属性。美国总统特朗普周二表示，他希望俄罗斯总统普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strength of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, particularly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium [1][3][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of August 20, spot gold is trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having dropped 0.5% to close at $3315.45 on the previous day, reaching a low of $3314.80, close to the 100-day moving average support level of $3311.15 [1]. - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a 0.15% increase in the US dollar index, which rose to 98.27, making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [5]. - UBS has raised its gold price target to $3600 by March 2026, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US, a decline in dollar usage, and strong investment demand, suggesting that the current drop in gold prices may be temporary [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key driver of gold price volatility, with traders estimating an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which typically benefits gold due to lower opportunity costs [3]. - Market expectations are uncertain regarding Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, with concerns that he may downplay the likelihood of a September rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar and exerting downward pressure on gold [3][10]. - The upcoming release of the July Fed meeting minutes is anticipated to provide insights into the US economic outlook, which could further influence gold prices depending on the Fed's hawkish or dovish stance [3][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are also influencing gold's safe-haven appeal, with President Trump expressing hopes for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could diminish gold's attractiveness as a safe asset if peace negotiations progress [6]. - However, uncertainties surrounding the willingness of parties to reach an agreement may continue to support gold prices, as any breakdown in negotiations could reignite risk aversion among investors [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Data - Recent macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with July housing starts increasing by 5.2% to 1.428 million units, while building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating a cautious outlook among builders [7]. - The yield curve's bear steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which negatively impacts gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds over non-yielding assets [8]. - Stock market performance, particularly the decline in tech stocks like Nvidia by 3.5%, is also affecting gold sentiment, as investors hedge against potential hawkish signals from the Fed [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with traders awaiting guidance from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1][2] - Gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3343 but later dropping to a low of $3314, closing at $3315, marking four consecutive days of decline [1] - Positive signals regarding the potential end of the Ukraine conflict, as indicated by U.S. President Trump's comments, may reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold has dropped to the 3320-3315 range, showing no clear signs of a rebound, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The short-term outlook for gold is heavily dependent on signals from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on maintaining short positions and waiting for potential rebounds before entering trades [2] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at 3325-3324 with a stop loss at 3330, targeting a drop to the 3300-3280 range [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23) is highly anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals potentially acting as a key catalyst for gold price movements [1] - The market is currently experiencing cautious consolidation at high levels due to heightened uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine situation and comments from Trump regarding tariffs [1] - The focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 17, with a recent economist survey on August 15 indicating ongoing market divergence in interpreting Fed policies [1] Group 2: Gold Price Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a slight breakdown in the daily chart, with short-term trends focusing on support around 3310 [3] - A descending wedge pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, suggesting potential bullish breakout risks, but is currently constrained by the 100-period simple moving average at $3346.98 [3] - Key resistance is identified at $3370, with a breakthrough potentially leading to targets of $3400 and the early August high of $3410; however, a drop below $3330 could direct prices towards $3300 and possibly test the August low of $3282 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - From a technical perspective, silver is hovering above the neckline of a bearish double top pattern in the $38.50-$39.00 range, indicating a loss of upward momentum [5] - A decisive drop below the support level of $37.50 could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [5] - The silver market opened at $38.024, experienced fluctuations, and closed at $37.377, forming a large bearish candle, with short-term trading strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5]

Group 1 - International precious metals market experienced a decline, with silver dropping nearly 2% [1] - As of the close on August 19, 2025 December gold futures fell by $19.1, settling at $3358.9 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The market is cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a short-term adjustment in precious metal positions [1][2] Group 2 - The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, closing at 98.265, which negatively impacted the precious metals market [2] - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is approaching, with market participants keenly awaiting Powell's policy signals [2] - UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 by $100 to $3600 per ounce, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US and strong investment demand [2] Group 3 - September silver futures closed down by $0.735, settling at $37.330 per ounce, a decline of 1.93% [3] - December silver futures also fell by $0.74, closing at $37.820 per ounce, a decrease of 1.92% [3]

当地时间周二，受多家知名芯片制造商股价大跌拖累，美股市场走弱，纳指跌幅明显。截至收盘，道指涨0.02%，报44922.27点；纳指跌1.46%，报 21314.95点；标普500指数0.59%，报6411.37点。接下来，全球央行官员将参加美联储一年一度的经济研讨会，市场正等待美联储主席鲍威尔的最新讲 话，以洞悉美联储政策的未来走向。 此外，据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月19日，美国商务部宣布，将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清单，适用税率为50%。 纳指大幅下挫 当地时间周二，美股三大指数涨跌不一，多家知名芯片制造商股价大跌拖累标普500及纳指。截至收盘，道指涨10.45点，涨幅0.02%，报44922.27点；纳 指跌314.82点，跌幅1.46%，报21314.95点；标普500指数跌37.78点，跌幅0.59%，报6411.37点。 大型科技股多数下跌，AMD跌超5%，英伟达跌超3%，创4月21日以来最大单日跌幅；奈飞、Meta跌逾2%，特斯拉、微软、亚马逊跌超1%，苹果、谷歌 小幅下跌。英特尔逆势大涨约7%，消息面上，日本软银集团和英特尔公司此前联合宣布，软银将向英特尔投资20亿美元，以每股23美元 ...

Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced a decline, with silver dropping nearly 2% [1] - As of the close on August 19, 2025 December gold futures fell by $19.1, settling at $3358.9 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The market is cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a repositioning in the short-term precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.1%, closing at 98.265, which negatively impacted the precious metals market [1] - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is approaching, with market participants keenly awaiting Powell's policy signals [1] - UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 by $100 to $3600 per ounce, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the U.S., declining dollar usage, and strong investment demand [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September closed down by $0.735, at $37.330 per ounce, a decline of 1.93% [2] - December silver futures also fell by $0.74, closing at $37.820 per ounce, a decrease of 1.92% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Group 1 - The core view is that the robustness of the U.S. labor market is now in question following the downward revision of employment data for May and June by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking the largest consecutive downward revision outside of the pandemic period [1] - The newly reported job additions for May and June were both below 20,000, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy direction [1] - The initial baseline forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025, but any further signs of weakness in the labor market or economy could lead to an earlier interest rate cut cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy remains undecided, leading to uncertainty in the copper market as the traditional peak season "Golden September and Silver October" approaches [1] Group 1 - The upcoming peak season is expected to influence copper prices, which are currently experiencing high volatility [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current price fluctuations will stabilize or break out of the existing range [1]