应对未来风险留有余地,确保财政可持续。 要建立健全增收节支机制, 增强地方自主财力, 兜牢基层"三保"底线。 | 要优化支出结构, 强化国家重大战略的财力保障, 推动更多资金资源投资于人。 统筹用好政府债券资金,更加注重 惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 要主动靠前发力, 提高资金使用效益, 推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 要严肃财经纪律, 坚持党政机关过紧日子。 要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量。 展会能源参考资金融资书记 品格共识曲 权威人士解读中央经济工作会议精神 66 十五五" 开局之年 宏观政策如何发力 12月13日,中国国际经济交流中心举办"2025 -2026中国经济年会",与会嘉宾围绕"贯彻 落实中央经济工作会议精神,以高质量发展 为'十五五'开好局"主题,就2026年经济工 作的重点任务进行了解读。 中央财办相关负责人: 做好明年经济工作,要坚持稳中求进、提质 增效,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实 提升宏观经济治理效能。 要继续实施更加积极的财政政策 保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总 量。既着眼当前,用好用足政策空间,也为 || 内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy to address current economic challenges, highlighting the importance of both fiscal and monetary policies in achieving stability and growth [1][2] - The fiscal policy is set to include a deficit rate of around 4% by 2025, with local special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan, along with 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds and 500 billion yuan in special bonds, providing a solid foundation for effective policy implementation [1] - The monetary policy aims to address price stability, with a focus on guiding inflation towards a reasonable range of around 2%, as current CPI is slightly above 0 and PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, negatively impacting macroeconomic operations and corporate profits [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the strategic significance of promoting a moderate recovery in prices as a key task of current monetary policy, which is crucial for stabilizing economic growth and fiscal revenues [2] - The concept of "counter-cyclical" and "cross-cyclical" regulation is introduced, emphasizing the need for a combination of short-term and long-term strategies to address immediate issues while planning for future development [2]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.47% to 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down by 1.16% to 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.81% to 22,693.32 points. Caterpillar and Nvidia led the decline, both dropping over 4% [5][11] - In the European market, the major indices showed mixed results, with the DAX down by 0.02% to 24,072.25 points, CAC40 down by 0.25% to 8,086.05 points, and the FTSE 100 up by 0.92% to 9,774.32 points [11] - The Asia-Pacific market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 0.92% to 25,468.78 points, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.26% to 49,512.28 points [11] Economic Indicators - The UK’s November CPI growth rate slowed to 3.2%, the lowest since March, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [11] - Japan's November exports to the US increased by 8.8%, marking the first rise in eight months, while exports to China fell by 2.4% [10][11] - China's fiscal revenue for the first 11 months reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% [12] Company Developments - BYD has initiated comprehensive testing for L3 level autonomous driving in Shenzhen, completing over 150,000 kilometers of real-world verification [17] - Xiaomi held its 2025 ecosystem partner conference, showcasing advancements in its open-source model, MiMo-V2-Flash, which ranks among the top in global open-source models [17] - CATL launched the world's first mass production line for humanoid intelligent robots in its facility, marking a significant milestone in intelligent manufacturing [17] A-Share Announcements - Xichuang Data plans to invest in the development and production of optical modules [17] - Shenzhen Urban Transport plans to raise up to 1.8 billion yuan for research and application of intelligent transportation equipment [17] - Shanghai Airport signed a contract for the transfer of duty-free store operation rights [17]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.468 | 105.840 | 105.840 | 108.005 | 108.025 | 112.14 | 112.33 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 涨跌 | 0.008 | -0.002 | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.100 | 0.105 | 0.750 | 0.780 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.01% | 0 ...

中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点 领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的 具体路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具 协同发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银 行首席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发 展营造必要的流动性环境。另一方面，"适度"二字也强调了对政策力度、节奏和重点的精准把握，注重 在稳增长、防风险、促改革等多重目标中寻求动态平衡，避免"大水漫灌"。 如何实施好适度宽松的货币政 ...

新华社北京12月18日电 《经济参考报》12月18日刊发记者向家莹采写的文章《解码中央经济工作会议 丨货币政策延续"适度宽松" "灵活高效"降准降息可期》。文章称，中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充 裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的具体 路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具协同 发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银行首 席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发展营 造必要的流动性环境。另 ...

值得关注的是，去年中央经济工作会议对降准降息的相关表述为"适时降准降息"。中信证券首席经济学 家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为，相较于去年的表述，会议提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具"，表述重点更多落在政策的效率和主动性上。 在天风证券（601162）固收首席分析师谭逸鸣看来，会议明确提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 工具"，预计2026年的总量宽松政策仍有一定空间，"灵活高效"意味着中国人民银行将根据经济增长、 物价走势及外部环境的变化，择机、小幅地使用价格型工具。预计2026年上半年，中国人民银行或实施 一次降息，幅度在10个基点左右，不排除一季度落地的可能性。此外，还可能实施一次降准，幅度在50 个基点左右。 光大证券固收首席分析师张旭认为，未来一两个月内降准或降息落地的概率较高。降准和降息既有共同 的作用，也受到共同的制约。补充银行体系流动性是降准特有的作用，而降息还受到银行净息差的制 约，在不同阶段宜根据经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况选择不同的政策工具。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币 政策的重要考量"反映出在后续货币政 ...

日前，中央财办有关负责同志在详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神时表示，今年我国首次实施更加积极 的财政政策，时隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续回升向好发挥了重要作用。根据 中央经济工作会议部署，明年我国继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。在政策取向上，坚持稳中求进、 提质增效。 从财政政策角度看，上述有关负责同志表示，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。政策力度上，保持必 要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有 余地，确保财政可持续。重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基 层"三保"底线。 "'保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量'，对'必要'的强调，与'提质增效'的工作基调相互呼 应。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，"更加积极"的政策取向下，预计2026年新 增政府债务规模或进一步提升至12.5万亿元左右，以支撑广义财政支出强度、兜牢基层"三保"底线。 "明年财政政策将在保持不低于2025年扩张力度的基础上持续优化支出结构，各项财政安排可能呈现'总 量稳增、结构优化、存量盘活'的特征。"广开首席 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is available in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of沪铜shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weaker basis. In the raw material aspect of the fundamentals, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrates remains at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply will have a long - lasting effect on the copper smelting end, providing cost support. In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, is still relatively good, making up for some profit losses of smelters. Although the operating rate of smelters has rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous maintenance, the increase is only slight due to raw material shortages. In terms of demand, boosted by macro - expectations, the copper price has been strong in the short term, but the high price has suppressed the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who have become more cautious, and social inventories have slightly accumulated. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.0111, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position short - term long - buying at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of沪铜is 92,820 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,680 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 88 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of沪铜is 223,974 lots, a daily increase of 6,600 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of沪铜is - 32,306 lots, a daily increase of 1,775 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,600 tons, a daily increase of 725 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 89,389 tons, a weekly increase of 484 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 64,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 44,877 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,145 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 445 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,285 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 290 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 45.5 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 675 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 455 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.52 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 5.13 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a monthly decrease of 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.08 dollars/thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.22 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 82,200 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 82,900 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 6.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,790 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 300 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 350 yuan. The output of copper products is 200.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 22.8 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 482.434 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 44.627 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7859.1 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 502.83 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.39 million pieces, a monthly increase of 213,000 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 18%, a daily increase of 0.13%. The 40 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 17.2%, a daily increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 18.15%, a daily increase of 0.0117. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, a daily increase of 0.0111. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office explained the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides, and coordinate to boost consumption and expand investment. In addition, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. On the supply side, new supply should be strictly controlled, existing inventory should be revitalized, and inventory digestion should be accelerated. On the demand side, more targeted measures should be taken to fully release the rigid and improvement - oriented housing demand of residents. - According to China Securities Journal, the core tone of the implementation of monetary policy in 2025 has always been "supportive". Looking forward to 2026, this tone is expected to continue. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, adhere to precise policies and coordinated efforts, flexibly use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. It will also better use structural monetary policy tools to precisely support key areas and weak links of the real economy. In addition, it will continue to explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, maintain the stability of the financial market, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. In addition, non - farm payrolls in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected decrease of 25,000, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - The preliminary value of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a five - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all reaching six - month lows. [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铝：横盘震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T-1 | | T | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 21845 | -75 | 70 | 220 | 1075 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 21825 | ー | - | - | । | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2883 | 8 | 37 | 21 | 261 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | 241924 | -94530 | -13811 | -3211 | 95764 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 288833 | -5540 | 93107 | -76363 | 40490 | | ...