在当今充满不确定性的全球经济环境中，投资者们正急切寻找能够替代黄金的避险资产。本文将深入分 析2025年最具投资价值的避险资产类别，帮助您在动荡市场中守护财富。 为什么我们需要寻找黄金的替代品？ 黄金作为传统避险资产，其市场已经高度成熟且价格波动性日益增加。2025年第一季度数据显示，黄金 价格波动率达到18.7%，创下近五年新高。与此同时，全球央行持续增持黄金储备，导致零售投资者获 取黄金的成本不断攀升。 数字货币、稀有金属和另类投资品正逐渐进入主流投资者的视野。这些资产不仅具备避险特性，还拥有 黄金所不具备的流动性优势和技术创新支撑。特别是在美联储货币政策转向、地缘政治紧张局势加剧的 背景下，多元化配置避险资产变得尤为重要。 数字货币：数字时代的"新黄金" 比特币等加密货币正逐渐获得"数字黄金"的美誉。2024年比特币减半事件后，其稀缺性进一步增强，目 前流通量仅剩200万枚待挖。机构投资者对比特币的认可度显著提升，贝莱德等资产管理公司的比特币 ETF规模已突破500亿美元。 以太坊等智能合约平台则提供了更丰富的避险策略。通过DeFi协议，投资者可以实现自动化避险资产配 置，年化收益率普遍在5-8%之间， ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including investor behavior, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the US dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of buying on dips acts as an invisible "safety net" in the gold market, with significant buying interest emerging when prices drop, reflecting investors' strong belief in gold as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [3]. - After gold prices fell to a low of $3207.30 per ounce, a surge of buying interest quickly entered the market, indicating a robust demand for gold amidst economic uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which was below the expected 0.3%, providing a boost to gold prices [4]. - The mild inflation report is expected to support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events reinforces the historical wisdom of buying gold during tumultuous times, as investors seek to protect their assets from potential losses [5]. Group 4: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, highlighting the negative correlation between the two [7]. - Despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, the dollar remains lower than its level when tariffs were announced, influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and subsequently gold prices [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Gold faces three key variables: the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks [8]. - The market is advised to monitor these factors closely, as they will significantly impact risk appetite and demand for gold [8].

Group 1 - The Japanese yen serves as an important indicator of both the Japanese economy and global economic trends, experiencing a significant decline recently after a period of appreciation [1] - On May 12, the yen depreciated sharply against the dollar, reaching around 148.00, with a daily high of 148.59, marking the highest level since April 3 [1] - The decline in the yen's value is attributed to reduced investor risk aversion following a 90-day tariff reduction agreement between China and the U.S., which has improved global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In April, the yen was a favored target for institutional investors, with net long positions increasing by 58,000 contracts to a historical high of 179,000 contracts [2] - The yen appreciated over 3% since the beginning of April, reflecting strong demand from investors [2][3] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar has been on an upward trend for three consecutive weeks in April, with a total appreciation exceeding 3% [3] Group 3 - The Japanese economy remains fundamentally strong, and the gradual tightening of monetary policy and potential interest rate hikes could support further appreciation of the yen [3] - Current exchange rates for the yen against the dollar are considered undervalued, with expectations for a stronger performance in the near future [3] - The outcome of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations will significantly impact the yen's value, with successful agreements likely to bolster the yen, while failures could lead to depreciation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data has altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reducing concerns about interest rate hikes and enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021. This has led to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, supporting gold prices [3]. - Trump's statements add market uncertainty: Following the CPI report, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates and claimed that Saudi Arabia would invest $1 trillion in the U.S. His calls for rate cuts align with market expectations, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold amid geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Monetary policy expectations: Weaker inflation data has strengthened market belief in the Federal Reserve's capacity for monetary policy adjustments, increasing expectations for rate cuts. This is likely to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, attracting more funds into the gold market and supporting price increases [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices exhibited significant volatility, ultimately closing higher after experiencing two dips followed by recoveries. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a death cross and are trending downward, creating resistance levels at approximately 3275 and 3300, which may limit upward movement [5]. - Key support levels are identified at 3208/3207, which is crucial as it aligns with the previous low and an important support line. If this support is breached, the market outlook may shift to a bearish perspective, with 3150 as the next critical support level [7]. - Resistance levels to monitor include 3265, 3275, and 3290/3293, with further attention on 3323 and 3350 if a strong upward trend occurs [7].

| 不过，仍有不少网友认为目前金价处于高位，直言"跌得不够多"。 | | --- | 国际金价持续震荡 近日，国际金价表现较为震荡。5月8日至5月12日四个交易日中，有三个交易日出现下跌，COMEX黄金、伦敦金现区间跌幅分别达5.29%、5.7%。 5月13日早间，金价持续下跌，其中现货黄金一度失守3220美元/盎司关口，此后又出现回调。截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3239.9美元/盎司，上涨0.37%；伦 敦金现报3236.68美元/盎司，上涨0.03%。 5月13日，"金价又崩了"话题登上微博热搜。 有网友感叹目前金价"非常不稳定"，也有网友称"最近赔了不少""亏了好几千了"。 足金饰品再度跌破千元大关 5月初，国内首饰金价曾普遍跌破1000元/克关口，部分品牌报价甚至重回"8字头"，但不久后每克报价又涨破千元。 5月13日，国内多家金店足金价格再次跌破千元关口。其中，周大福、周六福、金至尊的足金饰品价格均降至992元/克，日跌幅达1.59%；老庙的足金饰品 价格降至987元/克，日跌幅达1.3%。 消息面上，随着中美贸易关税谈判最新进展的披露，多家机构认为，短期金价或将面临回调风险。 宝城期货分析，5月1 ...

消息面解读：两国达成短期关税减免协议成为市场焦点，中国同意将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%，而美国则将对中国商品的关税从145%降至30%， 双方协议有效期为90天。关税协议的消息引发金融市场剧烈波动：美国国债收益率攀升，10年期收益率触及4.43%，创4月初以来新高。当前市场情绪正经 历从避险向风险偏好的显著转变。贸易紧张局势的缓和极大提振了市场风险偏好，导致资金从黄金等避险资产大规模流出。恐惧与贪婪指数显示市场正从恐 惧区域迅速转向贪婪，这通常预示着金价的进一步承压。流动性指标显示，随着资金涌向风险资产，黄金市场的流动性有所降低，这可能会放大短期内的价 格波动。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易系统在这里， 对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控制，操作风格稳健果断，以 随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交 易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金 ...

新华财经北京5月12日电（王姝睿） 市场对全球贸易关系的乐观情绪升温，强化了风险资产与欧元走势 之间的反向关联。近期欧元被视为对冲美国政策不确定性的工具，股市下跌时受益于避险资金流入。随 着贸易紧张局势缓解，风险偏好正在改善，欧元日内下跌。 一些机构仍看好欧元。加拿大皇家银行预测，欧元的势头目前已经停滞，但在今年晚些时候美联储开始 降息时，它应该会回升，到2025年底升至1.17，到2026年底升至1.24，欧元在全球外汇储备中所占的份 额在未来几年可能会增加。 德意志银行今年1月还在预测欧元兑美元今年将跌破平价，但现在预计欧元兑美元将在12月前升至 1.20，到2027年底进一步攀升至1.30。 除此之外，市场下调对欧洲央行降息预期，可能引发重新定价，从而支持欧元。欧洲央行管委施纳贝尔 最近表示，对进一步降息持谨慎态度，她的言论暗示6月决策可能具有更多灵活性。施纳贝尔认为，"保 持利率接近当前水平是适当的"，并称利率已处于中性水平（估计中性利率范围为1.75%至2.25%）；全 球经济动荡正在推高价格压力，欧元区通胀可能在中期内超过2%的目标。 目前市场押注欧洲央行12月存款利率为1.75%，高于此前预计的 ...

（年轻消费者特别喜欢金钞产品 吴家明/摄） 据悉，金钞也有不同的重量，一般的金钞价格在160元左右。黄金含量为1克的金钞价格则根据实时金价波动，另外还需要收加工费。 12日，随着中美贸易谈判出现积极进展、印巴等地缘政治冲突缓和，全球避险情绪有所降温，国际金价高位回落。 截至发稿，COMEX黄金期货主力最新报每盎司3221美元左右，日内跌幅超过3.6%。 | < w | COMEX黄金 | | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | 3221.8 | 昨结 | 3344.0 | 开盘 | 3281.0 | | | -122.2 -3.65% | | 总手 11.44万 | 现手 | | 8 | | 最高价 3295.5 | 0 | 持 仓 | 外 望 | 5.1万 | | | 最低价 3219.2 | 增 仓 -26.1万 | | 内 盘 | 6.3万 | | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | | | | 叠加 | | | | 盘口 | | | 3468.8 | | | 3.73% 卖1 ...

12日，随着中美贸易谈判出现积极进展、印巴等地缘政治冲突缓和，全球避险情绪有所降温，国际金价高位回落。 截至发稿，COMEX黄金期货主力最新报每盎司3221美元左右，日内跌幅超过3.6%。 | < w | | COMEX黄金 | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | 3221.8 | | 昨结 3344.0 | 开盘 | 3281.0 | | -122.2 | | 总手 11.44万 -3.65% | 现手 | 8 | | 最高价 | 3295.5 | 持 仓 0 | 外 营 | 5.1万 | | 最低价 | 3219.2 | 增 仓 -26.1万 | 内 盘 | 6.3万 | | सेविव | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | | | 叠加 | | | 盘口 | | | 3468.8 | | | 3.73% 卖1 3221.7 | 2 | | | | | 买1 3221.4 | 4 | | | | | 03:50 3222.1 | 2 | | | | | 03:50 3222.5 | 7 | | 3344.0 | ...

在一场可能对全球经济造成严重破坏的贸易战大幅缓和之际，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征 关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 据外媒报道，周一，黄金价格下跌3%，跌至一周多以来的最低水平。此前中国和美国表示已达成削减互征关税的协议，这推动美元上涨，同时削弱了黄金 作为避险资产的吸引力。 现货黄金下跌3%，报3224.34美元/盎司，为5月1日以来的最低水平。美国黄金期货下跌3.5%，报3228.10美元。 瑞士银行分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示："中美紧张局势的缓和，以及关税在90天内被削减，降低了对黄金等避险资产的需求。""短期内价格可能会保持波 动。但美国较高的关税仍在拖累经济增长，可能会迫使各国央行在今年晚些时候进一步降息。此外，各国央行可能会利用此次价格回调来增加黄金敞口。" 上个月，美国引发了贸易战，并加剧了人们对全球经济衰退的担忧。 （文章来源：金十数据） Reliance Securities高级大宗商品分析师吉格尔特里维迪表示，贸易谈判取得进展，短期内，金价 ...