Core Viewpoint - The auction for 6-month U.S. Treasury bills held on July 7 resulted in a winning yield of 4.145%, an increase from the previous yield of 4.11% [1] Group 1 - The winning yield of 4.145% indicates a rising trend in short-term interest rates, reflecting market expectations for future monetary policy adjustments [1] - The previous yield of 4.11% serves as a benchmark for assessing the current auction results and market sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 13-week (3-month) bills with a winning yield of 4.255%, an increase from 4.235% on June 30 [1] - The auction for 26-week (6-month) bills had a winning yield of 4.145%, up from 4.110% in the previous auction [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 13-week bills was 2.75, down from 3.04 in the last auction, while the ratio for the 26-week bills was 3.00, an increase from 2.77 [1] Group 2 - The auction's bidding deadline was delayed by three hours due to a technical issue at the Treasury Department during the Trump administration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury experienced a technical failure during the auction of 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills, which may impact investor confidence and market operations [1] Group 1 - The technical issues occurred during the scheduled auction, leading to potential delays in the issuance of government debt [1] - This incident highlights vulnerabilities in the auction process, which is critical for government financing [1] - The failure could result in increased scrutiny of the Treasury's auction systems and processes moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent increase in the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion, while alleviating immediate debt crisis concerns, may lead to short-term supply shocks in US Treasury bonds, resulting in upward pressure on interest rates [1][3][4] Group 2 - The "Great and Beautiful" Act passed by the US Congress aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade, which is expected to create a historical high in bond supply that the market needs to absorb [1][2] - Historical context shows that the US has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the debt crisis is more a product of political maneuvering rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [2][4] - The increase in the debt ceiling temporarily removes the risk of default, but it also leads to significant supply shocks in the Treasury market, with expectations of rising interest rates, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5% [3][4] - The ongoing trend of increasing fiscal deficits and debt expansion could accumulate risks that may spill over into the global financial market if not addressed fundamentally [4]

固定收益点评 如何定价 50 年国债 近期 50 年国债表现亮眼，与 30 年国债利差持续压缩，在低票息时期，成 为越来越重要的交易品种。50 年与 30 年国债利差从 6 月 16 日的 15.6bps 下降至 7 月 4 日的 8.4bps，累计下降 7.2bps，目前 50-30 年国债利差已 经降至 2023 年以来均值以下。而且从存量来看，50 年国债当前存量已经 达到 1.3 万亿，已经是具有相当体量的投资品种。那么未来 50 年国债是 否还具有超额收益，蕴含的更多是风险还是机会？我们尝试基于对 50-30 年国债利差定价基础上，来对 50 年国债投资价值进行分析。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 首先，基本面角度对 50-30 年利差基本不具备解释力。虽然基本面对其 他期限利差有一定影响力，但进入超长端之后，无论是基本面表征指标 PMI，还是物价指标 CPI 与 PPI，与 50-30 年国债利差在近几年都不具备 显著的相关性，显示基本面对 50-30 年利差基本不具备解释力。这也显示， 50-30 年利差更多反映资产属性差别，与基本面 ...

河南日报客户端记者 成安林 通讯员张翔 杨焜 段彦哲 "感谢人民银行，真没想到40多年的收款单还能兑付，否则这张国债收款单就永远'沉睡'在账本了。"7 月3日，焦作市山阳区新城街道定和村民委员会的会计孟九凤紧紧握住国库工作人员的手，难言激动之 情。 面对难题，中国人民银行焦作市分行立刻启动历史国债兑付专项处理机制，工作人员第一时间向国家金 库河南省分库汇报，仔细核对存根联信息，反复研究政策条文，以"特事特办、急事急办"的原则，及时 联系当地财政部门帮助寻找行政区划变更的法律文件，主动与定和村民委员会沟通协调。 今年正值中国人民银行"经理国库40周年"，该行将进一步拓展国债服务渠道，延伸服务触角，积极发挥 储蓄国债在县域农村地区的普惠作用，通过"办好实事"强化行动成效，不断提升金融服务的民生福祉能 力。 该行积极协助当地政府修改完善兑付证明材料，主动收集身份证复印件、兑付账号等资料，简化流程， 在较短时间内完成了这笔国债收款单兑付资料收集和流程处理，兑付款已划入定和村民委员会的银行账 户。 这笔1982年国债收款单的成功兑付，是维护国债信誉，积极落实金融"五篇大文章"政策，践行"央行国 库、为民服务"的初心和使 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 109.105 49192 | 0% T主力成交量 | | -218↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 106.225 59821 | -0.02% TF主力成交量 | | -865↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 102.502 35462 | -0.01% TS主力成交量 | | 257↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 121.150 55668 | -0.04% TL主力成交量 | | -1354↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 -0.12 | +0.02↑ T09-TL09价差 | -12.05 | 0.06↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 0.08 | -0.02↓ TF09-T09价差 | -2.88 | -0.04↓ | | | TF2512-2509价差 0.08 | -0.01↓ TS09-T09价差 | -6.60 | -0.01↓ | | 期货持仓头寸 | TS2512-2509价差 0.12 T主力 ...

财政部拟第二次续发行2025年记账式附息（十期）国债 招标面值总额1240亿元 金十数据7月7日讯，财政部拟第二次续发行2025年记账式附息（十期）国债。本次续发行国债为3年期 固定利率附息债。本次续发行国债竞争性招标面值总额1240亿元，进行甲类成员追加投标。本次续发行 国债票面利率与之前发行的同期国债相同，为1.46%。 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Current gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around $3327.25 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment [1] - The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza is expected to ease market tensions, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The market is closely watching the US Treasury Secretary's indication of a potential extension of tariff deadlines to August 1, which may further alleviate concerns [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with August futures around $3340, indicating a trading range between $3250 and $3476.30 [3] - Retail investor sentiment is bullish, with 59% expecting gold prices to rise, although a lack of new fundamental catalysts may keep prices in a high-level fluctuation [3][4] - Long-term factors such as US debt crisis, a weakening dollar, and inflationary pressures are expected to support gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven and store of value [4] Group 3 - The potential for gold prices to break above $3500 exists if new geopolitical or macroeconomic catalysts emerge, despite current short-term volatility [4] - Investors are advised to monitor trade negotiations, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and interest rate decisions from Australia and New Zealand for potential investment opportunities in the gold market [4]

信期货有限公司 TIC Futures Company Limited 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 政府债发行追踪―2025年第27周 截至7/6, 新增专项债发行进度为49.2% 1.5 - 0.5 0 -0.5 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 本周地方债净融资规模为217亿，环比减少5387亿 截至7/6, 新增地方债发行进度为50.3% 近2年均值 2025 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 li i 0 -500 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2025 1.5 - 4500 4000 3000 0.5 2000 .0 1000 -0.5 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29 ...