Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 349,633 kilograms, with an increase of 7,531 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 21,718 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 21,720 yuan, and dropped to a low of 20,350 yuan, closing at 20,626 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.62% [1] Group 2 - The total warehouse receipts in Shanghai include 53,806 kilograms from Zhongchu Wusong, 25,466 kilograms from Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, and 233,553 kilograms from Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, with an increase of 5,913 kilograms from Zhonggongmei [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao contributed 36,808 kilograms, with an increase of 1,618 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation remains above target levels, and the interest rate stance should maintain a slightly restrictive position according to the Kansas City Fed President [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, while the dollar index rose by 0.07% to 96.92, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of artificial intelligence-induced market sell-offs on gold and silver prices, with gold dropping by 4.1% and silver by 11% before attempting a rebound towards the $5000 mark [1][6] - The sell-off in metal prices appears to be driven by algorithmic trading and profit-taking, as recent surges were fueled by speculative buying [3][9] - The upcoming U.S. CPI report is anticipated to provide further market volatility, with expectations for a year-on-year CPI of 2.5%, down from 2.7%, and a core CPI also at 2.5%, indicating a potential stabilization in the macroeconomic environment [3][9] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing a pause in rate hikes that began in the second half of 2025, with a focus on balancing inflation control and sustainable economic growth [4][10] - Market expectations for the January CPI suggest a continuation of the disinflation trend, with a projected year-on-year increase of around 2.5%, indicating manageable price pressures [4][10] - If the CPI meets or falls below expectations, it could bolster confidence in inflation control and reinforce the Fed's dovish stance, potentially leading to a rebound in gold prices towards $5100 or even $5200 [5][11]

值得注意的是，CPI已连续三个月低于华尔街预期。若1月数据继续温和，将为美联储决策者提供更多 信心，相信其能在避免通胀复燃的同时下调基准利率。 华尔街预期：通胀数据只是短暂回落？ 花旗经济学家维罗妮卡・克拉克（Veronica Clark）指出，住房成本（被归类为服务）涨幅放缓，预计 将压制整体服务价格；但商品价格可能偏强，反映"新年企业提价中关税成本的传导"。 高盛预计，关税将为核心通胀贡献0.07个百分点，可能对服装、娱乐、家居用品、教育与个人护理等品 类构成上行压力。不过，高盛预测1月整体CPI同比仅为2.4%，略低于市场预期，这可能进一步增强通 胀放缓的预期。 北京时间周五晚9:30，美国劳工统计局将公布1月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计服务价格涨幅放缓 大概率将推动1月通胀有所降温。但即便如此，现在就期待这会改变美联储的政策思路仍为时过早。 经济学家共识预测显示，衡量美国全经济商品与服务成本的1月消费者价格指数（CPI）预计同比上涨 2.5%，较前一月的2.7%有所放缓，环比增速则维持在0.3%；剔除食品与能源的核心CPI预计同比上涨 2.5%，同样低于前值2.6%，环比增速或从0.2%小幅上升 ...

美股正经历全面抛售之际，周五将公布的1月CPI数据面临超预期风险。华尔街普遍预期核心CPI环比将 从0.2%升至0.3%，同时多家投行警告实际读数可能更高，"鹰派意外"的概率大于"温和意外"，这可能给 脆弱的市场带来新一轮冲击。 北京时间今晚21:30，因政府部门关闭而推迟数日的1月CPI数据将公布，华尔街共识预期显示： 但这一预期可能低估了年初价格压力和季节性扭曲的影响。多家机构的预测更为鹰派，摩根大通预计核 心CPI环比增长0.4%，其认为年初价格压力推升1月CPI，而去年12月的数据因10月和11月初联邦政府停 摆的滞后效应而受到抑制。 本周市场情绪已明显转向防御。围绕人工智能将颠覆多行业商业模式的担忧扩散，叠加美国成屋销售降 幅创四年来最大，触发避险交易，投资者同步抛售股票，大宗商品和加密货币等风险资产。在这样的背 景下，CPI的边际变化被放大。在弱于预期的零售销售数据与强于预期的非农就业报告相互抵消的背景 下，此次公布的CPI数据显得尤为重要。 多重因素指向上行风险 摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli预计，1月CPI环比将上涨0.3%（更精确为0.35%），核心CPI环比 将上涨0.4 ...

Market Overview - Asian stock markets retreated from record highs as investors locked in profits ahead of the Chinese New Year, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index falling 0.9%, marking its first decline in six trading days [1] - The South Korean Kospi index rose 0.9%, showcasing resilience amid concerns over U.S. tech stocks due to AI-related anxieties [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.11%, partially recovering from gains driven by risk aversion [1][5] Commodity Performance - Gold prices rose by 0.7% to approximately $4,950 per ounce, while silver saw a daily increase of 3%, reaching $77.46 per ounce [1][5] - Bitcoin rebounded after four consecutive days of decline, trading at $66,335.45 [5] Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. January inflation data, with expectations for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.5% year-on-year [1][8] - Traders have pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from June to July, with minimal likelihood of a cut in March [1][8] - Citigroup's Benjamin Wiltshire cautioned that the market may be overly optimistic about U.S. inflation prospects, suggesting that inflation expectations could be revised upward [8] AI Market Impact - The volatility in U.S. markets reflects the high risks associated with the AI boom, but the impact on Asian markets has been relatively contained so far [7] - Applied Materials' strong post-market performance indicates potential easing of AI-related concerns [7] Regional Stock Performance - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index has risen approximately 12% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index has erased all its gains for the year, currently down 0.2% [2] - The South Korean Kospi index has surged 32% this year, making it the best-performing stock market globally [2]

北京时间周五晚9:30，美国劳工统计局将公布1月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计服务价格涨幅放缓 大概率将推动1月通胀有所降温。但即便如此，现在就期待这会改变美联储的政策思路仍为时过早。 经济学家共识预测显示，衡量美国全经济商品与服务成本的1月消费者价格指数（CPI）预计同比上涨 2.5%，较前一月的2.7%有所放缓，环比增速则维持在0.3%；剔除食品与能源的核心CPI预计同比上涨 2.5%，同样低于前值2.6%，环比增速或从0.2%小幅上升至0.3%。 若数据符合预期，美国整体CPI将回落至2025年5月（特朗普政府实施"解放日"关税政策后的一个月）以 来的低位水平，显示通胀自去年9月略高于3%的峰值后持续下行。 值得注意的是，CPI已连续三个月低于华尔街预期。若1月数据继续温和，将为美联储决策者提供更多 信心，相信其能在避免通胀复燃的同时下调基准利率。 华尔街预期：通胀数据只是短暂回落？ 花旗经济学家维罗妮卡・克拉克（Veronica Clark）指出，住房成本（被归类为服务）涨幅放缓，预计 将压制整体服务价格；但商品价格可能偏强，反映"新年企业提价中关税成本的传导"。 高盛预计，关税将为核心通胀贡献0 ...

日本央行审议委员田村直树：我个人认为日本近期的通胀正变得具有粘性。我们最早可能在今春就判断 日本央行的价格目标已经实现。我们正处于一个需要仔细审视各种数据的阶段，以确定日本能否平稳实 现物价目标。消费者通胀趋于稳定，但鉴于日元新一轮跌势，必须对价格前景保持警惕。若经济和物价 与日本央行的预测一致，将加息。预计食品价格将继续上涨。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着北京时间周五21:30美国劳工统计局1月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告发布在即，华 尔街正屏息以待这份可能影响美联储年内利率路径的关键数据。 道琼斯共识调查显示，经济学家预计1月整体CPI同比涨幅将放缓至2.5%，较12月的2.7%进一步回落;若 数据符合预期，这项备受关注的关键通胀指标将回落至2025年5月——即特朗普政府实施"解放日"关税 政策次月(彼时许多经济学家曾警告该政策将推动物价加速上行)——以来的低位水平。 环比方面，整体CPI与核心CPI(剔除食品和能源)均预期上涨0.3%，与上月增幅持平。值得注意的是， CPI已连续三个月低于华尔街预期，若1月读数延续温和态势，将为美联储政策制定者提供更多信心， 使其在避免通胀复燃的同时，得以调降基准借款利率。 预测市场押注：近五成概率环比仅增0.2% 尽管共识预期指向环比增长0.3%，但预测市场平台Kalshi却呈现出更谨慎的押注倾向。交易员目前认 为，1月CPI环比仅上涨0.2%的概率约为45%至47%。 从概率分布看，市场近乎笃定CPI将录得正增长——数据显示94%的概率环比涨幅为正，78%的概率超 过0.1%。然而，押注涨幅达到 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (银轮股份) Key Points - **Order Growth**: Vertiv reported Q4 2025 orders of approximately $8.2 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations of $3.4 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 252% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 117% [1][2] - **Backlog Increase**: Orders for 2025 increased by 81% year-over-year, with backlog orders growing by 109%, reaching $15 billion [1][2] - **Demand Surge**: The demand for liquid cooling products from North American data center clients has surged, leading to a significant increase in company demand [2][3] - **Competitive Advantage**: The company emphasizes its competitive edge in liquid cooling CDU and heat exchanger products, with costs lower than foreign suppliers. The North American factory has achieved profitability [3] - **Future Growth**: The liquid cooling business segment is expected to maintain rapid growth over the next 2-3 years, with anticipated breakthroughs in 2026 for North American data center clients [3] - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company maintains a revenue forecast of $18 billion and a profit of $1.2 billion for 2026, with a target market value of $60-70 billion, considering the growth potential of gas generators and liquid cooling [3][4] Industry: Electronics and PCB Key Points - **Price Increases**: There is a notable price increase in overseas electronic fabrics, with key players like Taiyo Yuden halting production of E-glass to focus on low Dk electronic fabrics [4] - **Supply Shortages**: The supply-demand gap for second-generation fabrics is projected to exceed 10%, while the gap for Q fabrics may reach over 15%, indicating a strong basis for price increases [5] - **High Inflation Impact**: The high inflation in AI hardware segments, including storage, electronic fabrics, and optical chips, is emphasized as a critical factor in the current market dynamics [5] - **Demand for High-End Chips**: The increasing demand for high-end chips, particularly from companies like NVIDIA and Google, is expected to further widen the supply-demand gap in critical segments such as CCL, fiberglass, and copper foil, leading to upward price pressures across the industry [5]

在因短暂的政府部分停摆而延期公布之后，美国1月消费者价格指数（CPI）将于今晚21:30出炉。 尽管发布时间较原计划推迟，但多位经济学家认为，此次延后对数据本身的影响有限，这份通胀报告仍将为判断2026年美国通胀路径和货币政策环境提供重 要参考。 总体而言，今晚的数据更可能强化"通胀受控但难以快速回落"的判断。通胀水平虽仍高于目标，但并未显著偏离美联储的可接受区间。在这一背景下，市场 对长期通胀预期依然相对稳定，资产定价更多取决于对通胀结构和中期趋势的判断，而非单一一份CPI数据的短期波动。 经济学家预计，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，与去年12月持平；同比增速预计回落至2.5%左右，也有部分预测认为仍维持在2.6%附近。剔除食品和能源的核心CPI 环比同样预计上升0.3%，高于12月的0.2%；同比增速预计为2.5%，较此前的2.6%小幅回落。 这意味着，通胀并未重新加速，但降温过程明显放缓。价格压力仍然存在，通胀水平持续高于美联储2%的目标区间。法国Natixis银行首席经济学家克里斯 托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）指出， 美联储正处在一个需要接受"通胀缓慢回落而非迅速回归目标"的阶段，其 ...