周四亚市交易时段，现货黄金于 3630 美元 / 盎司价位附近呈现震荡态势。IEXS盈十证券（IEXS外汇） 资深分析师指出，当前黄金市场多空力量正处于微妙博弈阶段，而晚间即将公布的美国 CPI 数据，或 将成为打破僵局、引领金价走势的关键风向标。 从基本面来看，多重利好因素共同构筑起黄金的看涨基调。近期，美联储 9 月降息预期持续升温，市场 已完全定价 25 个基点的降息幅度，且降息 50 个基点的概率也大幅升至 10%。在全球经济前景充满不 确定性的背景下，降息预期的增强使得持有黄金的机会成本降低，吸引了众多投资者的目光。与此同 时，欧洲、中东地区地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，地缘政治风险的加剧让黄金的避险属性再度凸显，成 为投资者规避风险、保值增值的重要资产配置选择。 然而，美元指数尚未出现加速下行趋势，这在一定程度上限制了金价的涨幅。作为黄金的重要竞争对 手，美元的表现对黄金价格有着直接影响。当美元指数走弱时，以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者来 说变得更加便宜，从而刺激需求，推动金价上涨；反之，美元的坚挺则会抑制黄金的上行空间。当前， 美元指数的相对稳定，使得黄金多头难以形成有效的突破力量。 IEXS盈十 ...

每经AI快讯，9月11日，美元指数站上98，日内涨0.15%。 ...

格隆汇9月11日｜美元指数涨0.15%，站上98。 ...

新华财经纽约9月10日电美元指数10日微跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.01%，在汇市尾市收于97.780。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1705美元，低于前一交易日的1.1706美元；1英镑兑换1.3536美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3523美元。 1美元兑换147.33日元，低于前一交易日的147.40日元；1美元兑换0.7989瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.7977瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3861加元，高于前一交易日的1.3847加元；1美元兑换9.3521瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.3823瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.09% to 97.85, indicating a slight strengthening of the dollar against a basket of currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced a decline, with the euro falling by 0.12% to 1.1695 against the dollar [1] - The British pound saw a minor increase of 0.02%, trading at 1.3531 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar rose by 0.43% to 0.6613 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.03% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.4600 [1] - The dollar also gained 0.13% against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3863 [1] - Additionally, the dollar strengthened by 0.24% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.7992 [1]

每经AI快讯，9月10日，美元指数下挫，现跌0.11%，报97.65点。 ...

姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，持仓量变化不大。宏观层面，美元指数日内 下行，利好铜价。产业层面，SMM 报道，日内采购情绪进一步走弱， 进口货源仍未消化，持货商继续低价出货，沪铜现货升水进一步走 跌。短期关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡，持仓量有所上升。宏观层面，美元指数日内 走弱，带动有色板块偏强运行。产业层面，随着铝价上涨，下游接货 意愿较低。技术上，关注 20800 关口压力。 沪镍 今日镍价震荡上行 ...

被视为通胀数据的"领先指标"预测，即将公布的美国8月CPI同比增幅将略高于市场普遍预期，这为美元 带来了温和的上行风险。 | Release Day | Pre-Release | Survey | Actual Print | Accurate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Fixing | Median | (Unrounded) | Signal? | | 9/11/2025 | 2.91 | 2.90 | | | | 8/12/2025 | 2.77 | 2.80 | 2.705 | TRUE | | 7/15/2025 | 2.67 | 2.60 | 2.669 | TRUE | | 6/11/2025 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.355 | FALSE 7 | | 5/13/2025 | 2.31 | 2.40 | 2.311 | TRUE | | 4/10/2025 | 2.46 | 2.50 | 2.391 | TRUE | | 3/12/2025 | 2.89 | 2.90 | 2.822 | TRUE | | 2/12/2025 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

国家外汇管理局9月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，截至8月末，中国外汇储备规模为33222亿美元，较7 月末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。外汇储备规模继6月末后再次站上3.3万亿美元关口。 对于当月外汇储备规模变动，外汇局指出，8月受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影 响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇 储备规模上升。 对于8月美元指数下滑，多数市场机构分析美元指数走势受当月公布的美国经济数据走弱、市场对美联 储降息预期再度升温等因素影响。过去一个月，美国非农就业人数大幅低于市场预期，反映出近期美国 劳动力市场疲软；美国通胀水平企稳，缓解了市场对美国通胀的担忧；美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔 央行年会上的发言，则进一步强化了市场对美联储在9月降息的预期。 往后看，美联储降息节奏仍有较大不确定性。北京大学国民经济研究中心认为，尽管市场对9月美联储 降息预期升温，但4月以来美国通胀率持续上升、失业率依然相对较低，实际经济数据并不支持降息开 启。 目前，我国外汇储备规模已连续第21个月保持在3.2万亿美元以上。外汇局指出，我国经济运行稳中有 进，展现 ...