布伦德介绍，本届年会以"对话的精神"为主题，来自全球130多个国家和地区的约3000名与会者将围绕 五大议题展开讨论：如何在竞争加剧的世界中开展合作、如何释放新的增长动力、如何更好地投资于 人、如何负责任地推动创新的规模化应用、如何维护地球限度并实现繁荣。 世界经济论坛2026年年会1月19日至23日在瑞士达沃斯举行。年会前夕，世界经济论坛总裁兼首席执行 官博尔格·布伦德接受本报记者专访时表示："中国在全球产业升级、绿色转型等领域发挥着重要作用， 中国经济发展持续对世界产生深远影响。我们对中国的未来增长持乐观态度，因为中国不仅有着世界一 流的大学体系和完善的基础设施，还在研发和创新方面持续投入。展望2026年，中国仍将是全球经济增 长的重要支柱。" "去年6月，世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会(夏季达沃斯论坛)在天津举办，吸引了全球广泛参与， 这也进一步凸显各方对与中国开展对话、交流与合作的强烈意愿。"布伦德表示，全球持续高度关注中 国，既因为中国在全球经济中的重要地位，也源于中国持续发展带来的巨大机遇。 "我们的目标并非消除差异，而是通过对话弥合分歧，消除进步的阻碍。"布伦德说，当前，国际合作处 于关键时期 ...

Group 1 - The World Bank's "Global Economic Outlook" report indicates a cautiously optimistic view of the global economy, projecting growth rates of 2.6% and 2.7% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, suggesting a stable growth pattern [1] - Despite increasing trade tensions and rising policy uncertainties, the global economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 2.7% in 2025, demonstrating resilience against shocks [1] - The report highlights that the global economy faces challenges such as insufficient growth momentum, with trade and artificial intelligence identified as key drivers for economic growth [1] Group 2 - The report suggests a development logic for steady global economic progress, emphasizing the need for traditional sectors to solidify their foundations while new sectors innovate to empower traditional industries, creating a collaborative growth pattern [2] - This approach aligns with China's practice of high-quality development, injecting stable momentum into the global economy [2]

1月19日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，预计2026年世界经济将增 长3.3%，较去年10月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2027年将增长3.2%，与去年10月预测值持平。此前，世 界银行（以下简称"世行"）发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2026年全球经济增长预期上调至 2.6%，较2025年6月预测值提高0.2个百分点。 世行报告认为，关税冲击、保护主义升级、地缘政治紧张、财政脆弱性加剧等因素仍对全球经济构成下 行压力，但以人工智能为代表的技术革命加速渗透实体经济，叠加企业聚焦科技创新与绿色转型的投资 导向，正培育形成经济新动能，为全球经济新一轮增长周期积累力量。世行和IMF呼吁各国政府调整政 策，加大对科技和教育的投资，共促全球经济可持续发展。 多重因素促进经济稳步复苏 世行报告认为，世界经济在贸易逆风加剧的复杂环境下展现出超出预期的韧性，2025年增速达2.7%， 好于此前市场预期。其中，发达经济体增长1.7%，新兴市场和发展中经济体以4.2%的增速成为全球增 长的重要引擎。这一态势主要源于贸易品库存合理累积、人工智能相关投资扩大及全球供应链主动优化 调整。世行预测，未 ...

IMF指出，全球经济面临美国引发的重大贸易干扰和不确定性，但得益于财政刺激力度高于预期、金融 环境宽松、私营部门灵活应对以及政策框架改善等多重因素，仍展现出一定韧性。 报告预计，新兴市场与发展中经济体经济增长在2026年至2027年将保持在4.0%以上，发达经济体经济 在2026年和2027年将分别增长1.8%和1.7%。 报告预计，全球总体通胀率将从2025年的4.1%降至2026年的3.8%，2027年进一步降至3.4%。 转自：成都日报锦观 IMF小幅上调今年增长预期 警告不确定性让全球经济承压 新华社布鲁塞尔1月19日电 （记者 康逸 丁英华） 国际货币基金组织（IMF）19日在比利时首都布鲁 塞尔发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，小幅上调2026年世界经济增长预期。IMF指出，贸易紧张局 势、地缘政治冲突加剧等不确定性因素仍可能对全球经济活动造成更大压力。 报告预计，2026年世界经济将增长3.3%，较去年10月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2027年将增长3.2%，与 去年10月预测值持平。 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global economic growth to stabilize at 3.3% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025, with an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2024 compared to previous estimates [3] - The strong performance is attributed to various factors including easing trade tensions, higher-than-expected fiscal stimulus, and a supportive financial environment [3][4] Advanced Economies - Growth forecasts for advanced economies are set at 1.8% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025, with the Euro Area expected to grow at 1.3% and 1.4% respectively [4] - Specific country forecasts include the United States at 2.4% and 2.0%, Germany at -0.5% and 0.2%, and Japan at -0.2% and 1.1% for the respective years [3][4] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 4.2% for 2024 and 4.1% for 2025, with India maintaining a strong growth rate of 6.4% for both years [5] - The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to see growth rates of 3.9% and 4.0%, while Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 4.6% for both years [5] Technology Investment - A significant driver of economic resilience is the surge in information technology investment, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), which has reached its highest level since 2001 in the U.S. [4][6] - However, concerns exist regarding the potential for an AI investment bubble, which could lead to market corrections and impact overall economic stability [6][7] Monetary Policy Divergence - The IMF anticipates a divergence in monetary policy among major central banks in 2026, with the U.S. and U.K. expected to lower interest rates while the Eurozone maintains its rates [9] - Predictions include a 50 basis point cut in the U.S. federal funds rate, with similar reductions expected in the U.K. and several emerging markets [9][10] China's Economic Performance - China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year, driven by resilient manufacturing and strong exports [11][12] - Despite challenges from U.S. tariffs, China's trade remains robust, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and the EU [12]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.3%, up from the previous prediction of 3.1% made in October last year [1] - The IMF warns that concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, along with trade and geopolitical tensions, remain risks to the global economy [1] Economic Growth Projections - Following the World Bank, the IMF has also upgraded its global economic outlook, with a more optimistic forecast compared to the World Bank's prediction of 2.6% growth for this year [3] - In the United States, supported by fiscal policy and lower policy rates, the IMF predicts a growth rate of 2.4% in 2026, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.1% [3] - The IMF expects the Eurozone growth rate to be 1.3% this year [3] Risks and Vulnerabilities - The IMF highlights that while global growth has shown remarkable resilience amid trade disruptions, there are underlying vulnerabilities associated with high investment concentration in the technology sector [2] - The potential for a "sudden" market downturn exists if the anticipated productivity gains from new technologies, such as AI, do not materialize, which could weaken household wealth [1] - The IMF notes that the impacts of tariffs and uncertainty are expected to diminish this year and next, but new trade disputes may arise, leading to potential declines in corporate profit margins and persistent price pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, citing various factors that contribute to economic resilience despite ongoing uncertainties [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast in October [1] - For 2027, the growth rate is expected to remain stable at 3.2%, unchanged from the last forecast [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are anticipated to grow at over 4.0% from 2026 to 2027, while developed economies are projected to grow by 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027 [1] Inflation Expectations - The global overall inflation rate is expected to decrease from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, and further down to 3.4% in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its first World Economic Outlook (WEO) update for 2026, indicating that despite facing multiple headwinds such as trade policy volatility, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, the global economy demonstrates resilience and adaptability [2]. Global Growth Expectations - The global economic growth forecast for 2026 is set at 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous prediction in October 2025 [3]. - Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.8% in 2026, also up by 0.2 percentage points from last year's forecast [3]. - The United States is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2026, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase due to better-than-expected growth in Q3 2025 and tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act [3]. Regional Performance - The Eurozone's growth is forecasted at 1.3% for 2026, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, hindered by high energy prices and lower AI investment benefits compared to the US and Asia [4]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.2% in 2026, with significant upward revisions for China and India [5]. Trade, Technology, and Inflation - The report highlights a "temporary easing" in trade tensions, with the effective US tariff rate slightly reduced to 18.5%, supporting a recovery in global trade volumes [7]. - AI is recognized as a macroeconomic driver, enhancing productivity and impacting sectors beyond the tech industry, particularly in semiconductor and high-tech equipment exports [7]. - Global headline inflation is projected to decrease from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, with varying rates of return to target levels across different countries [7]. Financial Stability and Fiscal Vulnerability - Global financial conditions remain accommodative, but market concentration is increasing, particularly among major tech stocks [9]. - The IMF warns that if expectations regarding AI-driven productivity gains are not met, it could lead to significant market corrections [9]. - Global sovereign debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP by the end of 2030, particularly affecting economies with systemic importance [9]. Policy Recommendations - The IMF advises policymakers to utilize the current growth window to rebuild fiscal buffers and adopt flexible monetary policies where inflation is near targets [9]. - Strengthening multilateral cooperation to alleviate trade tensions and accelerate structural reforms to harness AI potential is deemed essential for enhancing long-term growth prospects [9].

来源：21世纪经济报道 | | | | | Year over Year | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | Difference from | | | | Estimate | Projections | | WEO Proje | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | | World Output | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | | Advanced Economies | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | | United States | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 | | Euro Area 3/ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | | Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 | | France | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | | Italv | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.1 | ...

来源：滚动播报 国际货币基金组织（IMF）周一表示，今年全球经济的增长速度将超过此前的预期，但如果贸易壁垒再 度升级以及地缘政治冲突加剧，全球经济可能会再度受挫。在其关于经济前景的季度报告中，该组织还 警告称，对美联储独立性的质疑可能会导致美国通胀率上升并迫使加息，而因对新技术盈利能力的担忧 而导致的股市下跌则可能削弱经济增长。该基金将对美国2026年经济增长的预测从2.1%上调至2.4%， 但将2027年的预测从2.1%下调至2%。该基金表示，目前预计今年全球经济将增长3.3%，而此前的预期 是增长3.1%。国际货币基金组织首席经济学家Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas表示："当然，在贸易方面仍存在 风险，而且主要是涉及地缘政治方面的风险。这些风险的影响会随着时间的推移而逐渐显现。" ...