Core Points - The Federal Reserve has officially closed the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, and will now integrate this oversight into standard banking regulations [1][2] - The closure of the program follows a deeper understanding of the risks associated with cryptocurrency activities, particularly after the collapse of three banks closely tied to the crypto industry [2][3] - The recent actions by the Federal Reserve signal a trend of increasing acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry by U.S. regulators, moving away from previous stringent requirements [4] Regulatory Changes - The "Novel Activities Supervision Program" was established to enhance oversight of banks' involvement in digital assets and blockchain technology, focusing on areas such as crypto asset custody and stablecoin issuance [3] - The latest regulatory changes simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [3] Market Sentiment - Financial markets are highly anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in September [6][7] - Recent inflation data has created uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some officials suggesting a cautious approach [6][7]

Group 1 - HSBC analysts have raised their silver price forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, citing strong gold prices and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - The new average silver price forecast for 2025 is $35.14 per ounce, up from $30.28; for 2026, it is $33.96, up from $26.95; and for 2027, it is $31.79, up from $28.30 [1] - Despite a 31% increase in silver prices this year, HSBC notes that this rise is more related to the correlation between silver and gold rather than intrinsic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - HSBC predicts that silver mine production will continue to grow at a moderate pace, with supply-demand models forecasting a silver deficit of 206 million ounces in 2025, 126 million ounces in 2026, and 167 million ounces in 2024 [1] - The weakening US dollar is seen as beneficial for silver prices, while ongoing discussions about Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank policies may impact future price trends [1] Group 3 - On Tuesday, gold futures prices slightly declined while silver futures prices saw a slight increase as investors reacted to the latest US economic data [2] - The US consumer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in July, supporting expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - Optimism surrounding the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Putin regarding the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has limited the upward momentum in prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The WTO predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Trade Growth Factors - Asian economies are expected to be the largest positive contributors to global merchandise trade growth in 2025, although their contribution in 2026 will be lower than previously forecasted [2] - North America is projected to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect this year will be less than previously estimated due to higher-than-expected early imports in the first quarter [2] - European contributions to trade growth have shifted from moderate positive to slightly negative for 2025, with energy-exporting economies also expected to see reduced positive contributions due to falling oil prices [2] Import and Export Trends - Europe’s exports and imports are projected to grow by -0.9% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the April forecast, while North American exports are expected to improve slightly to -4.2% [3] Tariff Impact on Trade - The WTO explains that the previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on measures in effect as of April 14, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [4] - Following agreements between the U.S. and countries like the UK, the annual forecast was adjusted to 0.3%, but higher tariffs on steel and aluminum products brought the forecast back down to 0.1% [4] - The higher tariffs effective from August 7 are expected to increasingly pressure trade, although this will be offset by the positive effects of early procurement and inventory accumulation [4] Overall Trade Forecast - The WTO's improved forecast of 0.9% growth for 2025 is attributed to two positive factors and one negative factor: a significant increase in U.S. imports by 11% year-on-year due to early procurement and inventory buildup, and a more optimistic global macroeconomic outlook compared to April [5][6] - The early procurement is the main contributor to the updated forecast, with similar patterns observed in other countries due to concerns over retaliatory measures [6] - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to have an overall negative impact on global trade prospects, with the higher "reciprocal tariffs" expected to exert increasing pressure on U.S. imports and suppress exports from trade partners [6]

Core Viewpoint - Trade Desk's stock price dropped 34% due to CEO Jeff Green's warning about ongoing tariff uncertainties impacting major global advertisers, potentially leading to a market value loss exceeding $12 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Trade Desk focuses on helping advertisers purchase and optimize digital advertising campaigns, primarily targeting large global clients [1] - The company expects quarterly revenue to reach at least $717 million, aligning with analyst expectations [1] Group 2: Market Impact - Concerns about slowing advertising spending have arisen as businesses delay new advertising initiatives, particularly in industries directly affected by tariffs [1] - Trade Desk's growth rate has slowed, falling below Meta's 22% growth, raising concerns that closed platforms may grow faster than open internet platforms [1][2] Group 3: Analyst Reactions - Following the announcement, at least seven analysts lowered their target prices for Trade Desk's stock, with the average target price now at $84 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trade Desk's stock price has dropped by 34% due to warnings from CEO Jeff Green about ongoing tariff uncertainties affecting major advertising clients, potentially leading to a market cap loss of over $12 billion if the decline continues [1] - Trade Desk's focus on large global advertising clients makes it more susceptible to broader economic pressures compared to competitors that rely more on small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Analysts have expressed concerns about Trade Desk's growth rate slowing down, which is now below Meta's 22% growth rate, indicating that closed platforms may be growing faster than open internet platforms [1] Group 2 - The company expects revenue for the current quarter to reach at least $717 million, aligning with analyst expectations according to LSEG data [1] - Following the announcement of the stock's decline, at least seven analysts have lowered their target prices, bringing the average target price down to $84 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trade Desk's stock price dropped 34% due to CEO Jeff Green's warning about ongoing tariff uncertainties impacting major global advertising clients, potentially leading to a market value loss exceeding $12 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Trade Desk focuses on helping advertisers purchase and optimize digital advertising campaigns, primarily targeting large global clients [1] - The company expects quarterly revenue to reach at least $717 million, aligning with analyst expectations [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Ongoing changes in trade policies have raised concerns about a slowdown in advertising spending, as businesses are delaying new advertising initiatives, particularly in industries directly affected by tariffs [1] - Trade Desk's growth rate has slowed, falling below Meta's 22% growth rate, raising concerns that closed platforms may be growing faster than open internet platforms [1] Group 3: Analyst Reactions - Following the announcement of the stock's decline, at least seven analysts lowered their target prices, with the average target price now at $84 [2]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

Group 1 - Toyota Motor Corporation has lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing that U.S. tariffs on imported cars will reduce its operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen (approximately $9.5 billion) [1] - The company now expects an operating profit of 3.2 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2026, down from the initial forecast of 3.8 trillion yen, which is also below analyst expectations [1] - Despite the challenges, Toyota reported an operating profit of 1.17 trillion yen for the April to June quarter, exceeding analyst predictions of 890 billion yen [1] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs has been significant, with Toyota estimating a loss of 450 billion yen in the first quarter and a total annual impact of 1.4 trillion yen [1] - Other automakers are also facing tariff-related challenges, with Ford estimating a net impact of $2 billion, Stellantis predicting a profit loss of approximately 1.5 billion euros, and General Motors indicating a tariff risk exposure of $4 to $5 billion [2] - Japanese automakers are experiencing relatively smaller impacts, with Subaru estimating a tariff effect of 210 billion yen, Nissan at 300 billion yen, and Honda at 450 billion yen [2] Group 3 - Toyota's global sales for the first half of 2023 reached 5.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, driven by strong performance in the U.S., Japan, and China [1] - The company anticipates total group sales of 11.2 million units for the year [1] - Toyota plans to build a new manufacturing plant in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, expected to be operational in the early 2030s, aiming to maintain domestic production at 3 million units [1]

Core Viewpoint - Apple achieved a record revenue of $94 billion in Q2 2025, marking a 10% year-over-year growth, the highest increase in 14 quarters, driven by hardware and service business growth [4]. Group 1: Revenue and Business Performance - Hardware business grew by 8%, while service business saw a 13% increase, indicating a robust overall growth trend [4]. - iPhone accounted for 47% of total revenue, with Mac contributing 9%, marking the fastest-growing segment [4]. - Service business reached a historical high, comprising 29% of total revenue [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - Apple focused on inventory clearance, particularly in the Chinese market, with significant discounts during the 618 shopping festival [6]. - The U.S. market saw over 70% of iPhone shipments manufactured in India, reflecting Apple's strategy to diversify supply chains amid tariff uncertainties [8]. - The demand for iPhone 16e in Japan was strong, making it one of Apple's fastest-growing regions [6]. Group 3: Product-Specific Insights - Mac revenue grew by 15%, driven by strong demand for MacBooks equipped with M4 chips and back-to-school purchasing [6]. - Wearable devices, home, and accessories segment continued to decline, with Apple Watch and AirPods revenue both decreasing [6]. - The decline in the wearables segment is attributed to extended replacement cycles and the absence of new Apple Watch SE models [6]. Group 4: Trade and Manufacturing Context - Recent developments in U.S.-India trade agreements, including a 25% tariff on India, create uncertainty, but key products like smartphones may still be exempt [10]. - India's electronic manufacturing policies, such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, are crucial for competing with China and Vietnam [10].

Core Viewpoint - E.l.f. Beauty's profits have declined by 30% in the fiscal first quarter due to new tariffs on Chinese imports impacting the company's financial performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's net income for the three months ended June 30 fell to $33.3 million, down from $47.6 million a year ago, representing a 30% decrease [2][6]. - Sales increased to $354 million, marking a 9% rise from $324 million a year earlier, although this is the second consecutive quarter of single-digit revenue growth [7][10]. - Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins are expected to be 20%, down from 23% in the same period last year [3]. Market Conditions - The company has not provided a full-year revenue guide due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with CEO Tarang Amin highlighting the volatile macro environment [4][5]. - E.l.f. has raised prices by $1 to mitigate tariff costs and is working on diversifying its supply chain and expanding its business outside the U.S. [4][5]. Growth Outlook - Despite the slower growth in the fiscal first quarter, the company expects sales growth to exceed 9% in the first half of the fiscal year [3][8]. - The company continues to gain market share, outperforming the overall beauty category, which has been experiencing a slowdown [8]. Product Strategy - E.l.f.'s growth is driven by innovative product launches, including a new serum priced at $17, which is a lower-cost alternative to a similar high-end product [9]. - The recent acquisition of Hailey Bieber's beauty brand Rhode is expected to enhance E.l.f.'s sales, with its products set to launch in Sephora stores in September [11].