Core Viewpoint - The EU is negotiating with the US to protect its automotive industry from high import tariffs, aiming to reach a trade agreement framework before the August 1 deadline set by Trump [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - Brussels is discussing measures such as reducing tariffs, setting import quotas, and providing deductions for EU car manufacturers' exports to the US [1] - The negotiations are part of the European Commission's efforts to secure tariff reductions in key sectors like automotive and aerospace [1] - A proposal on the negotiation table includes tariff reductions for car manufacturers producing in the US and exporting to other countries [1] Group 2: Importance of Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is considered a "red line" for the EU, making US concessions on this issue a prerequisite for any agreement [1] - EU negotiators are prioritizing the automotive industry in their discussions, indicating its critical importance to the EU economy [1] Group 3: Progress of Negotiations - Sources indicate that the negotiations are progressing "rapidly," suggesting a potential for a timely resolution [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market shows an upward trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The tariff extension will keep the cargo shipment from the Far East to the US going for some time, which is beneficial for August and reduces the expected decline from the high point in August, leading to the repair of the discount [12]. - The spot price of the European route is stable in early July. The market expects shipping companies to announce price increases in August as usual, but the actual effect may not be optimistic due to the disrupted shipping rhythm. Currently, it is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1343, down 1.92%. SCFI - US West dropped 18.97%, SCFIS - US West fell 3.83%, SCFI - US East decreased 12.57%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe rose 3.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased 6.36%, and SCFI - Mediterranean declined 3.89% [5]. - **Forward Contracts**: For EC contracts, most of the current values are higher than the previous values, with the increase rate ranging from 1.68% to 6.23%. The EC2508 contract has the highest increase rate of 6.23% [5]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the EC2606 position increased by 18, and the EC2508 position increased by 536 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 73.0, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 6.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread increased by 25.7 [5]. Important News - A ship was attacked off the southwest coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attacked ship is a Liberian - flagged, Greek - owned bulk carrier "Maxic Seas", which was hit by a maritime drone and then took in water [5]. - Some EU auto - makers and governments are pushing for a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. The EU must reach a trade deal with Trump by July 9, or the tariffs on almost all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50% [6]. - The first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended without results [7]. - CMA added an extra ship on the 11th and still has available space. MSK added an extra ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in week 31 [7][8]. - There is congestion at East China ports. MSC adjusted its port calls, either only calling at Shanghai or only at Ningbo [9]. - The loading rate of the European route was good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10]. - The OA Alliance suspended two sailings on the CES route, resulting in insufficient ship capacity and reduced cabin space [11]. Spot and Strategy - The central price of the spot in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quote in the second week of July rose slightly from 2900 to 2960, and the departure price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on the third week was 2950, higher than the previous market expectation of a decline starting from the third week [13]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread long position. Due to the relatively low shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30 and the strong opening of Maersk's cabin in week 3 of July, combined with the expected congestion in Europe, the 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract [13].

Core Viewpoint - Some EU automakers and governments are advocating for an agreement with the US to achieve tariff reductions in exchange for increased investment in the US [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU must reach a trade arrangement with Trump by July 9, or tariffs on nearly all EU goods exported to the US will rise to 50% [1] - Following negotiations held in Washington, EU member states were briefed on the status of trade talks and informed that a technical agreement is expected to be reached soon [1]

Group 1 - The EU is demanding immediate tariff reductions for key industries in any trade agreement reached with the US before the July 9 deadline, but expects some level of inequality in the agreement [1] - The EU has accepted a 10% baseline tariff as a non-negotiable bottom line while pushing for a principle agreement, with specific details to be finalized later [1] - Brussels is seeking to restore baseline tariffs to pre-Trump levels or achieve zero tariffs for specific industries, including alcoholic beverages and medical technology products currently subject to a 10% tariff [1] Group 2 - The EU's key demands include the elimination of a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts, and an immediate reduction of the recently increased 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products [2] - The EU considers the automobile tariff a "red line," highlighting a fundamental conflict with the US, which aims to revitalize its automotive industry while the EU seeks to open its market due to high energy costs and competition from China [2] - The EU insists that any initial agreement should lead to immediate tariff reductions rather than waiting for a final agreement to be signed, with several member states stating that an agreement lacking this clause would be unacceptable [2] Group 3 - The EU Commission has informed its 27 member states that the negotiation outcomes could range from successfully signing a framework agreement to the US expanding its tariff range [3] - If immediate tariff reductions are not achieved, Brussels may face a dilemma of either accepting significantly imbalanced terms or initiating countermeasures [3] - Another possibility is extending the negotiation deadline, with the US Treasury Secretary indicating that any decision to delay rests with President Trump, but all agreements must be completed by September 1 [3]

Group 1 - The UK automotive manufacturers will benefit from a reduced 10% tariff on exports to the US, down from the previous 25% imposed by Donald Trump on other countries, as part of an economic agreement between the US President and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer [1] - UK aerospace companies, including Rolls Royce Holdings, will see tariffs on products such as engines and aircraft parts drop from 10% to zero, providing significant relief to the industry [1] - The UK steel industry, however, has not seen similar tariff reductions, with existing tariffs remaining at 25%, despite previous announcements of a zero-tariff agreement [1][2] Group 2 - The UK is the only country to have reached such an agreement with the Trump administration, which is expected to save thousands of jobs in key industries [1] - The new 10% tariff on UK-made cars will apply to a quota of 100,000 vehicles annually, giving companies like Jaguar Land Rover a competitive edge over rivals from other countries [1] - The UK Department for Business and Trade will continue negotiations with the US regarding the steel zero-tariff agreement, although no timeline for achieving this has been provided [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The progress of Sino-US trade is better than expected, boosting market demand. The European route is starting to return to the mid-year peak season price increase logic. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The short - term market may continue to game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. - From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", and the freight rates of most long - haul routes increased. However, the future economic recovery prospects in Europe and the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects still face uncertainties [9]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, which is an important step in resolving differences through dialogue and lays the foundation for further cooperation. Both sides agreed on multiple positive consensuses and measures such as tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Sino - US trade progress boosts market demand. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The price in late May has a small increase, and the price in early June has a significant increase of up to 100%, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The short - term market may game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", the transport demand recovered, and the comprehensive index increased [9]. - **European Route**: The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in May was better than expected, but the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects are unclear, and the freight rate decreased slightly [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation is similar to the European route, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly [9]. - **North American Route**: After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the transport demand recovered significantly, the cabin supply was tight, and the spot market booking price increased significantly [9][10]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, with both sides agreeing on tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.9% from May 12th to May 19th, and the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 0.6% [13]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as the trends of the main and sub - main contracts of container shipping European route futures are presented [18]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as global container capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are presented [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. has experienced a significant recovery in its stock price, closing just above $205, marking a nearly 30% increase since its April low, driven by improving U.S.-China trade relations which directly impact its business model [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - The stock is trading near its highest levels since February, regaining its leadership position in the market, with analysts suggesting that May may be the last opportunity to purchase shares around the $200 level [2]. - The recent rebound was largely triggered by the U.S. and China agreeing to temporarily revise certain tariffs, benefiting Amazon significantly, which saw a nearly 10% jump in a single session [2][3]. - Analysts have issued bullish reports on Amazon, with a 12-month stock price forecast averaging $244.09, indicating a potential upside of 19.13% from the current price [6]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policy - Amazon is highly exposed to trade policy, with tariffs on Chinese imports raising costs across its e-commerce platform, affecting both its retail operations and third-party sellers, who account for approximately 60% of sales [3]. - The easing of trade tensions provides Amazon with a near-term margin boost and longer-term stability, alleviating one of the major concerns affecting the stock [5]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment and Forecasts - Analysts are optimistic about Amazon's potential, citing improving macro conditions, its leadership in cloud and advertising, and ongoing cost discipline as key drivers of this sentiment [7]. - Recent earnings reports have confirmed margin expansion in critical areas, with consumer demand remaining strong, making the investment setup increasingly attractive [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, Amazon's stock chart appears strong, with bullish indicators such as the MACD configuration and an RSI around 60, suggesting further gains are possible [9]. - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with increased volume on up days, indicating positive momentum [9]. Group 5: Market Trends - Broader market trends are supportive of Amazon's recovery, with the S&P 500 steadily recovering and a renewed risk appetite for growth stocks, particularly those with proven earnings power [10]. - The current market environment, combined with the lifting of trade overhangs, presents a strong upside case for Amazon, with price targets clustering around $300 [12].

Group 1 - The US and UK have reached a tariff agreement covering automobiles, steel, and agricultural products, allowing the UK to reduce tariffs on exports to the US [1] - UK tariffs on car exports to the US will decrease from 27.5% to 10%, and steel and aluminum tariffs will drop from 25% to zero, applicable to 100,000 UK cars, nearly covering last year's total exports [1] - In exchange, the UK will open its markets further for US products, providing $5 billion in export opportunities for the US and planning to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [1] Group 2 - South Korea is studying the US-UK trade agreement to find negotiation breakthroughs, particularly focusing on the automotive sector, which accounted for $34.2 billion in exports to the US in 2024, making up 26.8% of total exports [2] - Experts suggest South Korea could adopt a "conditional reciprocity" approach to achieve tariff reductions, leveraging US cooperation needs in shipbuilding and LNG projects [2] - The Korean government is exploring the possibility of a low tariff quota mechanism to secure a 10% preferential tariff for its automobiles [2] Group 3 - South Korea faces significant negotiation challenges, with projected car exports to the US reaching 1.43 million units in 2024, compared to the UK's 100,000 units [3] - The US may demand more concessions from South Korea in agricultural imports, digital trade, and other non-tariff barriers, aiming to maintain a 10% basic tariff while reducing trade deficits [3] - The Korean government aims to balance interests across multiple areas to maximize national benefits in negotiations, with plans to monitor US negotiation strategies and finalize their approach after the new government takes office [3]

导 语 ：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。但90天结束后会发生什么？ 巴罗卡斯（Barrocas）立即指示中国的工厂释放运往美国的货物，包括咖啡机和"Ninja Slushie"冰沙 机（一种冷饮制作机）。巴罗卡斯表示："在关税生效时，我们有数百个集装箱准备离开中国。现 在，我们终于可以把它们装上船。" SharkNinja首席执行官马克·巴罗卡斯（Mark Barrocas）在周日晚上执着地刷着新闻动态，寻找中美 两国是否会达成关税协议的任何迹象。 周一清晨，消息传来：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。 美国各地依赖中国进口的企业已经陷入困境数周，试图摸索如何应对特朗普总统（President Trump）在四月份对中国商品施加的高额关税。各家公司纷纷通过涨价、削减开支和裁员等方式努 力应对关税带来的额外成本。 如今，这场停战可能打破两国间事实上的贸易禁运。周一，美国股市大涨，美元攀升，投资者削减 了对美联储降息的押注。 许多公司表示，他们将迅速把货物装上前往美国港口的船只。 詹妮弗·伯奇（Jennifer Burch），Hightail Hair的联合创始人，从她的丈夫兼联合创始人乔 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...