Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - US CPI inflation in September was comprehensively lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of another rate cut in December rose to 96% [1][6]. - The current data dispelled concerns about "major stagflation" caused by tariffs. The increase in tariffs did not lead to a rise in the CPI growth rate, suggesting that tariffs are mainly borne by exporters or importers [5]. - The current CPI data may be crucial for the FOMC meeting on December 10th. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, and major commodity categories are expected to rise [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall CPI Data - In September, the year - on - year CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 2.9%); the month - on - month CPI was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value 0.4%). The year - on - year core CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.1%); the month - on - month core CPI was 0.2% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.3%) [1]. 2. Sub - item Analysis Food and Energy - Food inflation cooled down, with the food item's month - on - month rate at 0.2% (previous value 0.5%) and year - on - year rate at 3.1% (previous value 3.2%). Energy commodity prices rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8% (previous value 1.7%), and energy services' month - on - month rate dropped to - 0.7% (previous value - 0.2%). The overall energy item's month - on - month rate was 1.5%, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [2]. Core Goods - Driven by new and used cars, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core goods rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 1.5%, the same as the previous value. The reasons for the slowdown were the significant cooling of used car and auto parts inflation and the cooling of information technology products. However, furniture, clothing, leisure goods, and medical care products contributed more to inflation [3]. Core Services - Driven by housing and transportation services, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core services rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 3.5% (previous value 3.6%). The month - on - month growth rate of the largest - weighted housing item decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%, and transportation services inflation cooled down in September [4]. 3. Impact on the Market and Future Outlook - The comprehensively lower - than - expected CPI strengthened the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting is almost certain, and the probability of another cut in December rose to 96% [6]. - After the data release, US stock index futures rose, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar declined. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, major commodity categories are expected to rise, and precious metals that have fallen recently are also expected to rebound. The overseas interest rate cut cycle is beneficial for funds to flow into emerging markets [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the September CPI data in the U.S., highlighting a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is above the previous value of 2.9% but below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also shows a similar trend, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs and energy prices [1][7][20]. CPI Data Summary - The September CPI data was initially scheduled for release on October 15 but was postponed to October 24 due to the government shutdown. However, CPI data remains a priority as it is essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments for social security [1][6]. - The year-on-year CPI increase of 3% in September reflects a rebound in energy prices, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, lower than both the previous value and expectations [7][8]. - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is also below both the previous value and expectations [7][20]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of at least 0.2% increase. This reflects the shared burden of new tariffs among businesses, suppliers, and consumers [2][13]. - Specific items affected by tariffs include personal computers (+0.2%), sports goods (+1%), footwear (+0.9%), clothing (+0.7%), and household appliances (+0.8%) [2][13][14]. - Core services prices cooled down, with a core services CPI of 3.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both lower than previous values. Housing costs showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3][16][17]. Inflation Trends and Business Responses - Overall, the inflation data for September indicates a moderate recovery, with businesses absorbing some costs from tariffs while also passing on some to consumers. For instance, new car prices increased only 0.8% year-on-year, while used car prices saw a higher increase [4][20][21]. - A survey by the New York Fed indicated that about one-third of manufacturing firms have passed on all tariff costs to customers, while around 45% have only passed on part of the costs, and 25% have absorbed the costs entirely [20][21]. Economic Indicators - The October Markit PMI data showed strong economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 54.8, the highest in six months. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, indicating robust activity in various sectors [5][22]. - However, consumer confidence slightly declined to 53.6 in October, reflecting concerns over high interest rates and price fatigue [23]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was reported at 96.7%, reinforcing market expectations of a "soft landing" for the economy. U.S. stock markets saw gains across major indices, with technology stocks leading the rally [5][24][25].

帕特侬-安永首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科预测称，美国9月CPI数据将确认通胀再度加速，预计商品和服 务领域的价格动能均表现明显。关税的影响正日益显现，但其传导过程仍然缓慢且不均衡。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue increase of 9% in the second quarter, with total revenue for the first half growing by 12% [7][26] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 14% in the second quarter and by 17% in the first half [7][30] - Gross margin for the second quarter was 56.2%, up 30 basis points from 55.9% in the previous year [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA revenue increased by 15% in the first half, driven by updates to major road-running franchises and strong international performance [10][20] - UGG revenue rose by 12% in the first half, with men's footwear growing at twice the rate of the overall brand [20][21] - HOKA's wholesale channel grew by 13% in the second quarter, while DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) grew by 8% [26][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International regions were the primary growth drivers for both HOKA and UGG, with UGG and HOKA revenue in international markets increasing by 38% year-over-year [7][20] - HOKA gained two points of market share in the U.S. road-running category and outpaced competition in Europe [11][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for continued international expansion and a balanced approach between DTC and wholesale channels, targeting a 50/50 split [9][18] - The focus remains on building brand awareness and consumer engagement through strategic marketing initiatives [8][19] - The company is committed to sustainable growth and long-term value creation for both HOKA and UGG brands [36][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding consumer sentiment in the U.S. due to macroeconomic pressures, but remains optimistic about brand positioning for the holiday season [40][43] - The company anticipates a more challenging environment in the second half due to tariff impacts and shifts in consumer preferences [34][35] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $282 million worth of shares during the second quarter, with $2.2 billion remaining authorized for share repurchases [31] - The guidance for fiscal year 2026 includes total revenue expectations of approximately $5.35 billion, with HOKA projected to grow in the low teens and UGG in the low to mid-single digits [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance reinstatement and growth expectations for HOKA and UGG - Management indicated that the guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to anticipated consumer behavior changes and tariff impacts, but remains confident in brand strength [40][42][43] Question: DTC and wholesale channel dynamics - Management explained that while wholesale growth has been strong, DTC is expected to improve in the back half of the year as inventory dynamics normalize [56][57] Question: Long-term margin structure and tariff impacts - Management acknowledged that while tariff pressures will continue, they are committed to maintaining strong operating margins above 20% in the long term [58][60] Question: Price actions and consumer demand - Management noted that price increases have not negatively impacted demand, with strong sell-throughs for key styles [68][70] Question: Order book health and consumer behavior - Management expressed satisfaction with the order book for spring/summer 2026 and noted that consumer behavior has shown deeper valleys and higher peaks due to uncertainty [80][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue increase of 9% for Q2 2026 compared to the previous year, with diluted earnings per share growing by 14% [7][29] - Total company revenue for the first half of fiscal 2026 grew by 12%, with HOKA revenue increasing by 15% and UGG revenue rising by 12% [7][21] - Gross margin for Q2 was 56.2%, up 30 basis points from 55.9% in the previous year, benefiting from price increases and favorable product mix [32][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA's revenue in the first half increased by 15%, driven by updates to major road running franchises and strong sell-through rates [11][12] - UGG's global revenue in the first half increased by 12%, with men's footwear growing at twice the rate of the overall brand [21][22] - HOKA's wholesale revenue grew by 13% in Q2, while UGG's wholesale increased by 17%, partially offset by a 10% decline in UGG's DTC [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International regions drove UGG and HOKA revenue growth, with international sales increasing by 38% year-over-year [8] - HOKA gained two points of market share in the U.S. road running category over the past twelve months, outperforming competitors in Europe [12][18] - The U.S. marketplace remains dynamic, with a shift towards multi-brand shopping experiences impacting consumer behavior [9][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a balanced business model with 50% of sales from direct-to-consumer (DTC) and 50% from wholesale channels [10] - Strategic focus on brand building and marketing investments to enhance consumer awareness and expand market share for HOKA and UGG [8][39] - The company is committed to long-term sustainable growth, managing brands for profitability rather than chasing short-term sales [49][95] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer sentiment in the U.S., anticipating a more cautious consumer environment due to inflation and price increases [44][94] - The company remains confident in the growth trajectory of HOKA and UGG, with expectations for continued strong demand and market share gains [39][40] - Tariff impacts are expected to be significant in the second half of the fiscal year, with mitigation strategies in place to offset some of the pressures [37][70] Other Important Information - The company ended Q2 with $1.4 billion in cash and equivalents, with no outstanding borrowings [34] - Share repurchases totaled approximately $282 million during the quarter, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the guidance reinstatement and consumer behavior - Management acknowledged a cautious consumer outlook due to tariffs and price increases but emphasized the strength of their brands and long-term growth strategy [44][49] Question: Insights on the back half guidance for HOKA - Management indicated more pressure in Q3 with expectations for stronger growth in Q4, depending on consumer behavior during the holiday season [55][56] Question: DTC versus wholesale channel dynamics - Management expects improvements in DTC sales in Q3 and Q4, with a focus on balancing growth between DTC and wholesale channels [63][81] Question: Long-term margin structure and tariff impacts - Management confirmed that tariff pressures will continue to affect margins, but they are committed to maintaining strong profitability levels [68][70] Question: Pricing actions and consumer demand - Management reported that price increases have not negatively impacted demand, with strong sell-throughs for key styles [77][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue increase of 9% in the second quarter, with diluted earnings per share growing by 14% compared to the previous year [7][26] - For the first half of fiscal 2026, total company revenue grew by 12%, with HOKA revenue increasing by 15% and UGG revenue rising by 12% [7][8] - Gross margin for the second quarter was 56.2%, up 30 basis points from 55.9% in the previous year [27][28] - Diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.82, an increase of $0.23 from last year's $1.59, representing a 14% growth [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA's revenue in the first half increased by 15%, driven by updates to key road-running franchises and strong international performance [11][19] - UGG's global revenue in the first half increased by 12%, with men's footwear growing at twice the rate of the overall brand [19][20] - HOKA's wholesale channel grew by 13% in the second quarter, while DTC grew by 8% [26][27] - UGG's wholesale increased by 17% in the second quarter, but DTC declined by 10% due to pressures from better in-stock positions with wholesale partners [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International regions were the primary drivers of revenue growth for both HOKA and UGG, with UGG and HOKA revenue in international markets increasing by 38% year-over-year [8][19] - HOKA gained two points of market share in the U.S. road-running category and outpaced competition in Europe [12][16] - In China, HOKA's premium positioning and product innovation drove resilient consumer demand, with significant growth in loyalty membership [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for continued international expansion and a balanced business model between direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels, targeting a 50/50 split [10][32] - HOKA is focusing on performance categories such as trail, hike, fitness, and lifestyle, with plans to introduce new products and enhance brand awareness [75] - UGG is leveraging brand activations and marketing campaigns to maintain cultural relevance and drive consumer engagement [23][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a more cautious consumer environment in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to the impact of tariffs and price increases [40][42] - The company remains confident in the long-term growth potential of both HOKA and UGG, emphasizing a focus on sustainable growth rather than short-term sales [36][45] - The guidance for fiscal 2026 includes total revenue expectations of approximately $5.35 billion, with HOKA projected to grow in the low teens and UGG in the low to mid-single digits [31][32] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $282 million worth of shares during the second quarter, with $2.2 billion remaining authorized for share repurchases [30] - The anticipated unmitigated tariff impact for fiscal year 2026 is approximately $150 million, with mitigation efforts expected to offset $75 to $95 million of this pressure [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the guidance for HOKA and UGG growth expectations - Management indicated that the guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to anticipated consumer behavior changes and tariff impacts, but both brands are well-positioned for long-term growth [40][42] Question: Split between DTC and wholesale in Q3 and Q4 - The company expects improvements in DTC sales in the back half of the year, with a more significant growth in Q4 as the DTC comparison becomes easier [52][54] Question: Price actions taken and their impact on demand - Management stated that price increases have not negatively impacted demand, with strong sell-throughs for both brands [61] Question: Healthy order book for spring and summer 2026 - The company expressed satisfaction with the order book for spring and summer 2026, indicating an increase compared to previous periods [65][66] Question: Consumer behavior and market positioning - Management acknowledged consumer caution due to economic signals but emphasized that their brands are positioned better than most in the marketplace [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, O'Reilly Automotive reported a 5.6% increase in comparable store sales, a 9% increase in operating income, and a 12% increase in diluted earnings per share [5][28] - The gross margin for Q3 was 51.9%, up 27 basis points from 2024, and the company maintained its full-year gross margin guidance range of 51.2% to 51.7% [17][18] - The effective tax rate for Q3 was 21.4%, slightly lower than the 2024 rate of 21.5%, with an updated full-year tax rate guidance of 21.6% [29][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The professional business saw a comparable store sales increase of just over 10%, driven by pro ticket count growth [6][10] - The DIY segment experienced low single-digit comparable store sales growth, impacted by pressure on transaction counts due to rising prices [7][10] - Same SKU inflation was reported at just over 4%, affecting both business segments [8][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company updated its full-year comparable store sales guidance from 3% - 4.5% to 4% - 5% [11] - Inventory per store finished the quarter at $858,000, a 10% increase from the previous year [32] - The adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.04 times, slightly up from 1.99 times in 2024, remaining below the leverage target of 2.5 times [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - O'Reilly plans to open 200 to 210 net new stores in 2025 and has set a target of 225 to 235 net new stores for 2026 [23][24] - The company is focused on maintaining strong supplier relationships and managing risks through a diversified supplier base [20][66] - The strategic emphasis is on enhancing customer service and product availability to gain market share [13][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding consumer spending but noted that DIY consumers are still willing to invest in vehicle maintenance [10][12] - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit same SKU benefit in Q4, with expectations that most cost adjustments have been made [12][38] - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth opportunities, particularly in untapped markets like Mexico and Canada [58][59] Other Important Information - Free cash flow for the first nine months of 2025 was $1.2 billion, down from $1.7 billion in the same period in 2024, primarily due to accelerated tax payments [30][31] - Capital expenditures for the first nine months were $900 million, with a reduction in full-year guidance to $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for same SKU inflation? - Management expects to see a tailwind from same SKU inflation moving into Q4 and Q1, with most cost adjustments already made [37][38] Question: How is price elasticity affecting demand? - Historical trends indicate that larger ticket jobs may be deferred, but there is still strong demand for essential repairs [41][42] Question: What are the geographic performance differences? - No material differences were noted in regional performance during Q3, with results aligning closely with internal plans [64] Question: What is the company's approach to supplier health? - First Brands represents a small portion of COGS, and the company has multiple sourcing strategies to mitigate risks [66][68]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - **Company**: 匠心家居 (Motomotion) - **Industry**: Furniture and Home Furnishings - **Focus**: Smart electric sofas, primarily targeting the U.S. market - **Rating**: Initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of Rmb 110.00 Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - **U.S. Furniture Demand**: Expected to recover from a weak performance in 2022-2024, with projected growth rates of 5% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 due to factors such as declining interest rates and stable replacement demand [2][11][27] - **Company Growth**: Anticipated revenue growth of 31% in 2023, 33% in 2024, and 39% in H125, significantly outperforming the industry [2][45] Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profitability**: Projected revenue from Rmb 1,463 million in 2022 to Rmb 6,037 million by 2029, with a net profit increase from Rmb 334 million to Rmb 1,461 million over the same period [5] - **CAGR Estimates**: Expected revenue and net profit CAGRs of 23% and 18% from 2024 to 2027, respectively [1][2] Competitive Positioning - **Market Share Growth**: Current market share in the U.S. electric sofa market is 5.6%, expected to rise to 9.5% by 2027 [2][42] - **Product Innovation**: Focus on high-end market with innovative features such as wireless charging and immersive audio, leading to higher average selling prices (ASP) [51][50] Tariff Impact - **Tariff Strategy**: Company has shifted production to Vietnam, covering over 90% of U.S. sales, mitigating the impact of tariffs [3][4] - **Profit Margin Control**: Anticipated manageable impact on profit margins due to cost-sharing with upstream and downstream partners [3][28] Valuation - **Current Valuation**: Company is currently valued at 22x 2026E PE and 0.9x 2026E PEG, indicating potential for upward adjustment [4][9] - **Target Price**: Rmb 110.00 target price implies a 27x 2026E PE and 1.1x 2026E PEG, suggesting a 22% upside [4][7] Risks and Opportunities - **Market Risks**: Potential negative impact from rising retail prices due to tariffs and consumer sentiment [28][36] - **Opportunities**: Exit of smaller Chinese exporters from the U.S. market could provide market share opportunities for established players like 匠心家居 [3][42] Additional Insights - **Channel Inventory**: Current channel inventory levels are healthy, with a slight increase in inventory-to-sales ratios since Q225, indicating stable demand [34][37] - **Consumer Sentiment**: Despite concerns over consumer sentiment due to tariffs, the overall demand driven by housing transactions is expected to rebound [11][28] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: 匠心家居 is positioned as a strong player in the U.S. furniture market, with innovative products and a strategic focus on high-end segments. The anticipated recovery in the housing market and effective tariff management further bolster its growth prospects, justifying the "Buy" rating and target price.

Core Insights - The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and likely continuing to show rapid growth in September [1] - The household food component increased by 0.6% in August, but the growth in September may slow down [1] - The September core CPI month-on-month rate is likely to reach 0.3%, rounding up to possibly show 0.4% [1] - Both overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% by a full percentage point [1] - The inflation level may be less concerning than the direction of change for the Federal Reserve, with inflation likely to rise rather than fall until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers [1] - The situation could become more complex if new tariffs are implemented and affect more industries, making it difficult to envision inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target in the short term without a significant economic recession [1]

Local production accounts for most of its sales on the U.S. market, however certain products, mainly high-strength steel for the automotive industry, are exported. ...