Core Viewpoint - The agricultural futures market is experiencing a divergence in performance across different commodities, with varying supply and demand dynamics influencing prices [1] Group 1: Soybeans - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, as the market is cautious about the auction atmosphere for old grain [1] - Southern production area prices are steady, with high-quality soybeans maintaining strong prices despite weak demand in sales areas [1] - The soybean market is expected to face pressure at 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support at 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton, with tight supply but equally weak demand [1] Group 2: Peanuts - The peanut production area has low leftover stocks, influenced by delayed imports and poor profit margins, leading to fewer imported peanuts arriving [1] - New planting area for peanuts has slightly increased year-on-year, but demand remains weak as oil mills enter a purchasing lull [1] - Short positions may be considered with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY/ton and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Oils - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although domestic fundamentals remain largely unchanged [1] - The short-term outlook for soybean oil is weak, with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY/ton and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY/ton [1] - Canola oil is benefiting from rising crude oil prices and improved demand, with expectations of sufficient supply in the upcoming months [1] Group 4: Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are influenced by rising crude oil prices and U.S. EPA proposals, which improve biodiesel blending profits and demand [1] - From June 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, while exports increased by 17.7% to 26.3% [1] - The market is advised to hold long positions with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY/ton and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY/ton [1]

Core Insights - The agricultural futures market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with specific focus on soybean, peanut, and oil prices influenced by both domestic and international factors [1] Soybean Market - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, while southern regions see steady prices for high-quality beans. Demand in sales areas is weak due to high temperatures affecting the preservation of soybean products, leading to cautious purchasing [1] - The domestic soybean supply is tight with weak demand, suggesting that there is insufficient driving force to pursue higher prices. The main contract for September is advised to be observed within the pressure range of 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support range of 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton [1] Peanut Market - Peanut stocks in production areas are low, with delays in imports and low profit margins affecting the arrival of imported peanuts. The planting area for the new season has slightly increased, reaching near historical highs [1] - Demand from oil mills is weak during the off-season, but rising crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies provide some support for peanut prices. A cautious long position is suggested with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY [1] Oil Market - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although the domestic soybean oil fundamentals remain unchanged with weak demand [1] - The main contract for September should be monitored with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY [1] Canola Oil Market - Canola oil prices are supported by rising crude oil prices, improving biodiesel blending profits and demand. However, high domestic canola oil inventories remain a concern [1] - The new season's canola planting is progressing well with expectations of increased production. Support is noted at 9200 - 9216 CNY and resistance at 9790 - 9798 CNY [1] Palm Oil Market - Palm oil prices are positively influenced by rising crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biodiesel proposals. Recent data shows a 4% decrease in palm oil production and a 17.7 - 26.3% increase in exports [1] - A cautious long position is recommended with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the粕类 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the new - season US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the sowing progress is significantly higher than the historical average. The supply - demand report this month has no significant adjustments. In China, the rise in Brazilian premiums has supported the price of粕类, but the overall supply is still abundant due to high arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, high oil - mill operating rates, and rising粕类 inventories [1][2] - For the corn market, in China, the supply side shows that traders in Northeast China are raising prices and are reluctant to sell, while in North China, corn circulation is tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. The weather in the US corn - growing belt is favorable [3][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day; the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2671 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed粕 spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: The US EPA's new proposal will increase the biomass diesel blending target to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026. If the target is met, the total raw material required will be 20.8 million tons, with soybean oil consumption at 8.32 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons (38.5%) from 2024 [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - New - season US soybean sowing is going well, and the sowing progress is higher than the historical average. The supply - demand report has no significant adjustments. In China, high Brazilian premiums have increased import costs, supporting the bean粕 price, but the supply is still abundant due to high arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, high oil - mill operating rates, and rising bean粕 inventories [1][2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: The weather in the US corn - growing belt is favorable, with alternating sunny and rainy weather expected in most central areas in the next two weeks. Adequate rainfall has helped relieve drought in some areas [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, on the supply side, traders in Northeast China are raising prices, and in North China, corn circulation is tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: There are significant differences in pressure at the origin, and it is grinding at the bottom in a volatile manner [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by Sino - US sentiment, it fluctuates within a range [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal fluctuates strongly [2]. - **Soybean No.1**: The spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2]. - **Corn**: It fluctuates strongly [2]. - **Sugar**: It consolidates at a low level [2]. - **Cotton**: The improvement of market sentiment drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2]. - **Eggs**: The industry still has a resistance sentiment [2]. - **Pigs**: Weight reduction has just started [2]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,110 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.20%, and 8,130 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.25%. The trading volume was 626,813 lots, an increase of 91,154 lots, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, a decrease of 10,733 lots. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 7,738 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 0.81%, and 7,774 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.47%. The trading volume was 379,290 lots, an increase of 119,382 lots, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 17,954 lots. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: Brazilian producers' soybean sales volume has increased, but is still lower than last year and the five - year average [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of DCE soybean No.1 2507 was 4,149 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 11 yuan (+0.27%), and 4,147 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 5 yuan (+0.12%). The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 3,010 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 52 yuan (+1.76%), and 3,009 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 18 yuan (+0.60%). The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.45 million tons per day, an increase from the previous day [9]. - **News**: On June 6, CBOT soybeans rose due to Sino - US trade optimism. Drought in some areas may affect soybean growth [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal: +1; Soybean No.1: 0 [11] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2507 was 2,340 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 0.34%, and 2,347 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.30%. The trading volume was 305,894 lots, a decrease of 64,264 lots, and the open interest was 964,005 lots, a decrease of 25,824 lots [13]. - **News**: The northern corn collection port price was 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou was stable [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [15] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.51 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents. The mainstream spot price was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract price was 5,735 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [18]. - **News**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in short supply in the 24/25 season. Brazil's production and exports have changed, and China's import volume has decreased [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [21] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,360 yuan/ton during the day session with an increase of 0.87%, and 13,435 yuan/ton during the night session with an increase of 0.56%. The trading volume was 314,494 lots, an increase of 132,900 lots, and the open interest was 750,372 lots, an increase of 12,557 lots [23]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was mostly cold, and the cotton textile industry entered the off - season [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 2,859 yuan/500 kg, a decrease of 0.63%. The trading volume was 69,678 lots, and the open interest was 7,559 lots [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of pigs in Henan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the pig 2507 contract was 13,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [33]. - **Market Logic**: In June, the weight - reduction and de - stocking process will accelerate. The spot price is falling, but the 1 - month contract may be re - valued in the medium - term [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK510 was 8,384 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume was 49,871 lots, a decrease of 663 lots, and the open interest was 149,398 lots, a decrease of 54 lots. The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [36]. - **Spot Market**: The peanut prices in most regions were stable, with limited supply and trading volume [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [40]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-06 美豆价格回升，豆粕区间震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2958元/吨，较前日变动+19元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2509合约2567元/吨，较前 日变动+24元/吨，幅度+0.94%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M09+-108，较前日变动-29；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-178，较前日变动-19； 广东地区豆粕现货价格2770元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-188，较前日变动-29。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09-87，较前日变动-24。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，2025年6月巴西大豆出口量预计为1255万吨，低于5月份的1420万 吨，也低于去年同期的1383万吨。ANEC预计2025年巴西大豆出口量可能高达1.1亿吨，比2024年增加1300万吨， 超过2023年历史峰值1.013亿吨。 市场分析 国内方面，近几月处于巴西大豆到港的高峰期，国内大豆通 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 间震荡，短线参与为主。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9444 | 62 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2599 | 33 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 182 353590 | -16 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 27423 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 252 615879 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-22 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。不过已播种区域降雨偏好限制涨幅。周三国内 豆粕现货涨跌互现 10 元/吨左右，华东低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-21 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。周二国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东 低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。 据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续 增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has limited upward - driving forces and will likely oscillate. Although the market sentiment has improved due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, factors such as high export tariffs, uncertain supply and demand, and a lack of strong incentives in the planting end restrict the cotton price's rebound space [1][2][3] - The sugar market's overall trend is mainly influenced by the international market. Although domestic sugar prices are currently supported, if Brazil's high - yield expectations are gradually realized, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to follow the decline of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market's price is affected by macro - emotions and supply - demand relationships. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the high inventory and weak demand will keep the pulp futures price in a low - level oscillation in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,474 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Import: In April 2025, China's cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 280,000 tons from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and the tariff policy's uncertainty will increase after 90 days [2] - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties, and the supply - side weather factors currently lack a strong narrative [2] - Domestic: The cotton - planting area has increased slightly, the cotton seedlings are growing well, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not declined sharply. However, it has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is weakening [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate strongly, but the rebound space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,853 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,910 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - Import: In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons from the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the second half of April was lower than expected, but most institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the raw sugar price is under pressure [5] - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales and production data are favorable, and the short - term import volume is limited. However, the long - term import pressure is expected to increase, and the price increase space is restricted [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, focusing on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,390 yuan/ton yesterday, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market: The prices of imported pulp in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some loosening [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy has increased the pulp price's volatility, but the improvement of Sino - US relations has promoted the pulp price's rebound [7] - Supply: The decrease in the foreign - exchange quotation has weakened the cost support, and the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the off - season [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Sideways" [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The sentiment in the corn market has changed, with the selling price loosening. The futures and spot markets are adjusting. The futures price is under pressure due to concerns about imported corn auctions. Technically, it is in a high - level sideways pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the long - term moving average of the July contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose in technical trading, but weather in the US Midwest and policy uncertainty regarding biofuels limited the upside. In Argentina, some soybean losses may occur due to storms. In China, the protein meal market declined, and the spot price of soybean meal dropped, dragging down both near - and far - month contracts. The oil mills' high expected soybean crushing volume and slow downstream procurement led to a rapid decline in the spot price. It is recommended to hold a long - short spread strategy for the 9 - 1 contract [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, ending a two - day decline, supported by the strength of soybean oil. High - frequency data showed an 8.5% increase in Malaysian palm oil production from May 1 - 15. The 6 - month tariff was reduced from 10% to 9.5%. In China, rapeseed oil led the rise, and soybean oil and palm oil also moved up. The supply of oils has increased since May, but demand is weak, and the basis is expected to decline. The trading strategy is intraday trading [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures contracts showed a downward trend. The spot price decreased. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support the short - term egg price, but the upcoming rainy season and increasing supply may lead to a weak egg price in the future. Attention should be paid to the changes in feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The September contract is at a discount to the spot price. The feed cost is expected to decline, putting pressure on the hog price. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the support at 13,500 yuan for the September contract, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to enter the market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The US has adjusted the wording of the guide's press release, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature of the guide remain unchanged. China firmly opposes the US's abuse of export control measures against Chinese chip products [3]. - A US private exporter reported selling 145,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/2025 season [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.49403 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 275,050 tons [3]. - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, down from the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year (starting from September 1) was 44.131939 million tons, higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level corresponding to a 9.5% export tariff, from 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May to 3,926.59 ringgit per ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis for different agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, such as the 9 - 1 spreads and basis of these products [5][6][8][9][12][14][15][18][20][27]