Workflow
农产品期货市场
icon
Search documents
农产品日报:市场情绪回暖,板块震荡反弹-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:16
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral to bearish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the sector has rebounded with fluctuations. For cotton, the macro - situation and new - season supply expectations affect prices; for sugar, the global supply - demand balance and Brazilian production are key factors; for pulp, macro policies and fundamental supply - demand conditions influence the price trend [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+0.86%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,429 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 28%, 4% slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded with fluctuations. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations and the expected reduction in US cotton planting area supported cotton prices, but the acceleration of US cotton sowing and the expected increase in domestic cotton planting area also affected the market. Spinning mills were cautious in purchasing, and downstream demand was expected to weaken in the off - season [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the domestic market is in the consumption off - season, and the expected high yield in the new season may suppress the upside space of cotton prices [2] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5906 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Green Pool predicted a small surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 global sugar supply, with an expected 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons and a 0.95% increase in consumption to 197 million tons [2][3] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late April pushed up the external market, but the expected high yield in the new Brazilian season limited the upside. The good domestic production and sales data supported domestic sugar prices, and the short - term import limitation and tightened policies also made domestic sugar prices more resistant [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and attention should be paid to Brazilian weather and policy changes [6] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5378 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton (+1.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The prices of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed different trends [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices continued to rebound. The improvement in macro - sentiment had a short - term positive impact, but the fundamental support was weak. The reduction in foreign dollar quotes and high inventory levels put pressure on prices, and both European and domestic demand were weak, with the off - season approaching [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bearish. Although pulp prices have rebounded recently due to macro - factors, the off - season of the paper - making industry is coming, and demand is expected to weaken further. It is recommended to take short - selling positions on price increases [7]
油脂回落、棉花续升
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 12:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The USDA May supply - demand report had mixed impacts on agricultural products. The prices of some products like cotton rose, while others such as palm oil, sugar, and bean粕 declined. The overall agricultural product market showed a diversified trend with different influencing factors for each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract continued to rise despite a pull - back. The Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks' positive outcome, domestic macro - benefits, and reduced commercial inventory supported the price increase. However, the textile industry is in a off - season [2]. - Technically, it showed strength. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 13270 and a resistance level of 13475 [3]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract reversed and fell. The MPOB April report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory, while exports met expectations. The large increase in production and inventory pressured the price [4]. - The contract entered a downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 7812 and a resistance level of 8000 [4]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rebounded but then fell sharply. Overseas raw sugar price drops and the opening of the domestic sugar out - of - quota import profit window limited its rebound [6]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 5827 and a resistance level of 5892 [6]. Bean粕 - The bean粕 main 2509 contract continued to decline. Although the USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, fast sowing in the US and large domestic soybean imports increased supply, weakening downstream demand [9]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 2865 and a resistance level of 2900 [9]. Bean一 - The bean一 main 2507 contract oscillated and fell. Stable domestic soybean prices due to less remaining beans at the grass - roots level were offset by weak downstream demand and increased imported soybean supply [10]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold short positions with a support level of 4130 and a resistance level of 4175 [12]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rose first and then fell. The USDA report increased US soybean oil demand in biofuels, but large domestic soybean imports and increased supply pressured the price [13]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term shorting with a support level of 7770 and a resistance level of 7866 [13]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract continued to fall. The Sino - US tariff reduction may increase imports, and rumors of state corn reserve auctions added bearish sentiment. Substitute pressure and weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline [15]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 2335 and a resistance level of 2361 [15]. Pig - The pig 2509 contract oscillated at a low level. High inventory on the breeding side and weak demand after the May Day holiday led to an oversupply situation [17]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 13800 and a resistance level of 13915 [17]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract oscillated and fell. High egg - laying hen inventory and sufficient egg supply limited the price rebound [19]. - Technically, it faced downward pressure. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 2900 and a resistance level of 2933 [19]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract gapped down. High apple prices in production areas and increased substitute consumption from competing fruits pressured the price [22]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 7690 and a resistance level of 7800 [22].