Core Viewpoint - Nomura International indicates that the euro is likely to benefit from traders digesting the possibility of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) next year, although the euro's rise may not exceed the 1.20 USD level due to limited potential increases in rates [1][2]. Group 1 - The basic expectation is that the ECB will maintain interest rates unchanged until 2026, but if the market begins to price in a more hawkish outlook, the euro will clearly benefit [2]. - The euro/USD pair has risen approximately 1% this week, driven by hawkish comments from ECB official Isabel Schnabel, leading traders to bet on a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike next year [2]. - There is potential for the euro to rise, but reaching levels significantly above 1.20 may require a more structural shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2 - Other currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona have also benefited to varying degrees from the expectations of interest rate hikes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate with a bullish bias, suggesting attention be paid to the range of 320,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows the US "small non - farm" ADP improvement, and the Federal Reserve has "ample room" to cut interest rates. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, processing fees are low, refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and overall trading volume is low. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a warming of the bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 322,630 yuan/ton, up 10,310 yuan; the 1 - 2 month contract closing price is - 770 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 39,850 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 47,499 lots, up 4,075 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is 753 lots, up 1,084 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 3,050 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, up 506 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,151 tons, down 86 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 317,140 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 41 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, up 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 203,370 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,245,400 tons, up 136,100 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Federal Reserve's October JOLTS job vacancies rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high. - The Bank of Japan Governor hinted at future interest rate hikes "more than once". - Trump considered two candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and there were speculations about interest rate cuts and tariff adjustments [3].

数据与表态：加息预期与经济隐忧的博弈 日美央行政策预期分化，日元从两周低点反弹 日元吸引买盘入场，结束对美元的三连跌走势。市场预期日本央行（BoJ）下周或将紧急加息，叠加谨慎的市场情绪，共同为日元提供支撑。而在关键央行 会议召开前，市场对美联储的鸽派预期令美元承压，进而抑制美元兑日元汇率上行。 日元反弹核心逻辑：通胀数据强化加息预期 周三亚洲交易时段，日本公布的企业商品价格指数（CGPI）超出市场预期，这一数据进一步巩固了市场对日本央行即将加息的押注，推动日元汇率小幅走 高。与市场对美联储的鸽派预期形成鲜明对比，这种政策预期分化成为低息货币日元获得支撑的又一关键因素。除此之外，谨慎的市场情绪也助力避险属性 的日元终结对美元的三连跌，从周二触及的两周低点小幅反弹。 不过，日本扩张性财政政策引发的担忧以及经济增长疑虑，可能会限制日元多头的激进押注。投资者目前也显得较为谨慎，选择等待今日稍晚为期两天的美 联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议结果，以获取关于美联储未来降息路径的更多线索。与此同时，市场对美联储进一步宽松的坚定预期，使美元汇率 在接近10月末以来低点的水平持续承压，这也对美元兑日元汇率构成利空。尽管如 ...

美股指期货集体上扬，欧股与亚太市场涨跌互现。债市方面，美债收益率延续升势并刷新阶段高点，澳大利亚三年期国债收益率亦攀升至去年11 月以来最高水平。美元指数基本持平，澳元走强，日元承压。金跌银涨，油价在经历近三周最大单日跌幅后暂时企稳，加密货币下挫。 12月9日周二，市场在美联储利率决议前情绪谨慎，全球主要股指表现分化，美债收益率上行创新高。 汇丰控股首席亚洲经济学家弗雷德里克·诺伊曼表示： "投资者们正按兵不动，等待美联储的决定。由于2026年美联储的政策路径仍存在不确定性，投资者将格外关注联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）的声明和预测。因此，隔夜美国市场较为谨慎的基调也延续到了今天的亚洲市场。" 核心市场走势如下： 市场焦点在于本周美联储利率决议，美股指期货集体上扬，美国债券收益率上行。美国10年期国债收益率周二升至4.182%，30年期收益率一度逼 近4.82%，均创9月以来新高。 据，交易员预计周三降息25个基点的概率约为90%，但分析师认为决议将伴随鹰派基调，暗示明年可能延长暂停降息。掉期市场显示的终端利率 已从不到3%跳升至3.2%，为7月以来最高水平。 | ES | 标普500期货小型 | 6864 ...

你 真的准备好迎接一连串 "黑天鹅＋灰犀牛"了吗？ 特朗普关税 2.0靴子刚刚落地，冲击波仍在扩散 。 更令人不安的问题随之浮现：如果 AI 资本支出 一旦熄火，美股还能靠什么撑住？ 更关键的是 ——美联储的"加息预期"会复活吗？这根"最锋利的针"，是否会刺穿AI三年的超级繁荣？ 中国这边，多条线索正快速汇合 ： Deep S eek引爆AI产业链全线上攻，财政贴息托底消费，"反内卷"推动制造业回归价值，万亿化债打开信 用空间，房地产静待政策回温…… 在这一切交织之下，中国权益市场会否迎来 "风险偏好复位"？还是，一个全新的周期正在悄然开启？ 当 欧洲还在疲软泥潭中徘徊，日本的政策调整则持续搅动全球资金流向 ——2026年会不会成为"东亚政 策冲击波"向全球扩散的一年？ 地缘层面也在酝酿关键变化： 俄乌和谈久违露出曙光，美国却持续施压委内瑞拉， OPEC转向谨慎，亚太摩擦依旧是那头随时可能冲出 来的灰犀牛 。 能源价格会否再次成为全球资产的风向标？ 而 大宗商品早已悄悄给出了答案： 当 天量债务融资 压力逐渐显形 、 "通胀+衰退"组合 阴影 逼近，我们必须直面一个问题：美元、估值、 流动性，会不会在 202 ...

澳大利亚储备银行（央行）日内将现金利率维持在3.6%，符合市场预期。经济学家指出，澳央行本轮 降息周期几乎可以肯定已经结束，未来的风险偏向于该央行可能觉得有必要提前转向紧缩政策。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳央行指出，通胀风险偏向上行，需要更多时间评估价格压力的持续性。澳央行还表示，国内需求强于 预期，可能会增加通胀压力。机构分析指出，在通胀和消费者需求数据强劲的情况下，市场已经开始计 入明年可能加息的风险。一些分析师指出，如果通胀压力持续上升，央行可能最早在明年2月就被迫加 息。 对于明年的加息节奏，机构观点各不相同，还需等待进一步的数据证明。InTouch Capital Markets高级分 析师Sean Callow表示，澳央行的声明明确表示，他们不会对通胀的暂时波动过度反应，并且可能比市 场更不愿意考虑加息。明年2月加息的可能性很低，可能要在夏季之后再行动。瑞银则认为，澳央行将 在明年底前加息。 澳元受加息预期支撑，表现亮眼。后续如果澳央行转为鹰派的预期实现，且美联储变得更鸽派，那么澳 元可能会继续得到提振。西太平洋银行外汇策略主管Richard Franulovich表示，澳元正享受到多年未见 的利 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.84% to 25,549.90 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.32%, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.12% [1][8]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a broad decline, with notable drops including Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Baidu, each falling over 2%, while Meituan and NetEase dropped more than 1% [1][8]. - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks faced pressure, with Zijin Mining declining over 4% [1][8]. - The real estate sector weakened significantly, highlighted by China Jinmao's drop of over 11% [1][8]. - New consumption concept stocks continued their downward trend, with Pop Mart falling over 4% [1][8]. Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate potential adjustments in interest rate policies by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, with hawkish comments from ECB Executive Schnabel influencing market sentiment towards anticipated rate hikes next year [2][9]. - Analysts noted that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts, but there are indications that the threshold for further cuts may be raised [2][9]. Investment Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests a selective investment strategy, highlighting a clear risk differentiation in China's credit market: the TMT sector shows strong quality, while state-owned enterprises are stable but have tight valuations, and the real estate sector remains challenging [5][11]. - The real estate market is not expected to stabilize until 2025, with ongoing declines in sales and investment [5][11]. - Vanke's efforts to extend domestic bond maturities have led to significant drops in both offshore and onshore bond prices, raising concerns about the financing environment for private developers [5][11].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 金十数据 受财政担忧与加息预期双重打击，日本国债遭遇抛售，10年期收益率升至2006年来最高。财务大臣片山 皋月表态将密切监控市场，试图稳定投资者情绪。 日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，她正密切关注市场走势，因10年期日本国债收益率目前徘徊在2%附近， 这是自2006年以来从未见过的水平。 当被问及近期收益率上升时，片山皋月周二对记者表示："我们正在非常密切地监控市场走势。我们将 通过与市场保持密切沟通来妥善管理国债"，她同时避免对任何具体水平置评。 片山发表上述言论之际，由于市场对日本财政健康状况的担忧日益加剧，以及预期日本央行将继续加 息，日本基准国债收益率周一触及2007年以来的最高水平。 虽然额外支出显示了高市早苗支持经济以实现增长的承诺，但这位首相在将更多发债推向短期债券的同 时，成功地将本财年的债券发行总额控制在低于去年水平的规模。 片山皋月试图通过指出国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃在审查最新经济方案后表示日本公共财政仍 然可持续，以此来安抚投资者。 利率上升的预期也助推了收益率的上涨。日本央行行长植田和男已明确表示，央行将在即将召开的 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of selling in global long-term bonds has emerged, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.17% and 30-year yields approaching 4.82%, both reaching new highs since September [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - The market is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with traders expecting a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][3] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed's decision will carry a hawkish tone, suggesting a potential extension of the pause on rate cuts into next year [3] - The swap market indicates that the terminal rate has risen from below 3% to 3.2%, the highest level since July [1] Group 2: Global Bond Market Trends - Concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation pressures are leading markets to bet on multiple countries, including Japan, Australia, and Canada, resuming rate hikes by 2026 [5] - Japan's 30-year bond yield has increased by 34 basis points to 3.39%, leading the global long bond sell-off [5] - Australia's inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.8%, with market expectations for a 34 basis point rate hike by the next Reserve Bank meeting [5] - Canada's employment data has led to a 25 basis point rate hike expectation for 2026, with its 30-year bond yield rising by 28 basis points to 3.85% [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has seen an overall increase of 2 to 3 basis points, with mid-term bonds performing the weakest [4] - The Treasury adjusted its auction schedule to align with the Fed's two-day meeting, indicating a strategic response to market conditions [4] - High expectations for continued easing have paradoxically led to higher yields rather than lower ones [4]

12月8日(周一)在日本央行加息预期陡增与美联储降息窗口开启的双重背景下，美元兑日元汇率近期陷 入剧烈博弈，市场对政策拐点的敏感程度持续攀，美元兑日元报154.97，较前一交易日下跌0.28，跌幅 0.2382%，当日最高触及155.38，最低下探154.92，展现出政策预期驱动下的窄幅震荡特征。此前该汇 率曾一度跌至157关口附近，创下近10个月新低，距离市场普遍认为的日本当局干预线160仅一步之遥。 日本央行的政策转向预期成为搅动汇率走势的核心变量。日本央行行长植田和男12月1日明确释放加息 信号，称将在12月19日的货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊，若经济展望符合预期便会采取行 动。这一"鹰派"表态彻底改变市场预期，两周前市场对日本央行12月加息的概率预期仅为30%，如今已 飙升至76%，明年1月加息概率更是高达近90%。背后逻辑在于日本经济的矛盾处境：一方面，10月日 本核心CPI同比上升3.0%，连续50个月同比上升，物价涨幅持续扩大，通胀压力倒逼政策收紧；另一方 面，日本第三季度GDP出现负增长，虽被植田和男判断为"暂时现象"，但经济复苏乏力仍限制着加息节 奏。受加息预期推动，日本10年期国债 ...