Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: November 14, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, exceeding market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in floating storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in India in nearly a year. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global oversupply and sanctions support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $55 - $65 in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Data - From November 7 - 13, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated between $58.49 - $61.04, BRENT between $62.71 - $65.16, and DUBAI increased from $64.93 to $64.45 with a change of $0.18. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Daily News - Ukraine's drone attacks damaged apartment buildings and oil depots in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [3]. - The Trump administration lifted the ban on oil extraction in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [4]. - Russian refineries are increasing the utilization of idle capacity to make up for losses caused by Ukrainian drone attacks [4]. - The IEA said that US sanctions may have a profound impact on Russia's crude production outlook, but it maintains its estimate of Russia's average daily crude output of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year [4]. 3.3. Inventory Data - In the week ending November 7, US crude exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined product inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [6]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [6]. - From October 31 - November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.5757 million tons (down 0.4%) and diesel at 12.8962 million tons (down 1.82%) [6].

每经AI快讯，美国上周API原油库存增加130万桶，前值增加652.1万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to trade in a narrow range, waiting for more information. Russian oil supply may decline due to sanctions and harassment, while the US government's potential reopening may boost the financial market and stabilize oil prices. Currently, the market is in a stalemate, with medium - to long - term downward pressure and short - term waiting for geopolitical developments. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while medium - to long - term supply may increase. The market is affected by factors such as optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and potential OPEC+ production adjustments [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The long - lasting US government shutdown may end this week, and a compromise bill has cleared initial hurdles in the Senate. Russia's Tuapse refinery in the Black Sea has suspended fuel exports after a drone attack, and US sanctions on Lukoil are approaching [3]. - **Basis**: On November 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.64 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.95 per barrel, with a basis of 33.29 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected increase of 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market to replace Russian oil. HPCL bought 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, and MRPL bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude [5]. - US President Trump said he would lower tariffs on Indian goods and that the US was "very close" to reaching a trade agreement with India [5]. - A temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown is expected to pass in the Senate on Monday evening, but it also needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the president [5]. - Fed officials are divided on further interest rate cuts. Some are skeptical, while others are open to it, and one called for a 50 - basis - point cut in December [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ may suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - **Bearish**: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude settled at $64.06 (up $0.43, 0.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.29, 0.48%), SC at 460.2 (up 3.30, 0.72%), and Oman at $64.99 (up $0.36, 0.56%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.60 (down $1.07, - 1.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.38, 0.64%), Oman at $65.64 (up $0.27, 0.41%), Shengli at $60.87 (down $0.06, - 0.10%), and Dubai at $65.62 (up $0.62, 0.95%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the same period [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of October 28, the net long position was 171,567, an increase of 119,046 [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report In the week of November 9, both global on - land and floating storage crude oil inventories jumped, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory continued to rise to a new high for the year. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remains high. Regionally, China's inventory decreased slightly, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East all increased [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: In the week of November 9, global on - land and floating storage crude oil inventories increased, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory reached a new high for the year, with high year - on - year inventory pressure [1]. - **Regional Inventory Changes**: China's inventory decreased slightly, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East increased [1].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is expected to result in the seventh price increase of the year, leading to a slight increase in consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The new price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 10, with analysts predicting an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel by approximately 135 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1]. - As of November 6, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 3.12%, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the upcoming adjustment [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, there have been 21 rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 745 yuan per ton for gasoline and 715 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts from various firms indicate that the current oil prices are in a narrow fluctuation range, with signs of potential weakening. The market is expected to face oversupply pressure in the near term [4]. - Supply-side factors include OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, while the overall atmosphere of increased production is expected to persist until the end of December this year [4]. - On the demand side, the seasonal decrease in crude oil demand due to ongoing maintenance at U.S. refineries and a notable increase in U.S. crude oil inventories contribute to a sluggish global demand recovery [4][5].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly, but refined oil inventories declined, with a neutral impact. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which provides some support to the supply side but cannot change the oversupply situation. The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, leading to a rebound in oil prices. After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $59.64 per barrel, down 1.52%; Brent closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 1.38%; SC closed at 460.4 yuan per barrel, down 0.37%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 26.38 million lots, 33.45 million lots, and 9.28 million lots respectively [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a bearish strategy, short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage [7] 2. Industry News - India's Reliance Industries, usually a major oil importer, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes. After U.S. sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 1.69 million barrels per day [8] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels last week due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, higher than market expectations [8] - Commodity trader Mercuria said that an oversupply is slowly forming and may impact the market in the next few months [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI and Oman spot prices, global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [11][12][15][22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials' speeches provide key guidance for future interest rate cuts, while government shutdowns create safe-haven buying pressure, but a strong dollar continues to exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term gold prices are constrained by both the strong dollar and interest rate expectations, with safe-haven sentiment providing a floor, likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern [2] - Recent observations show gold prices faced resistance at the $4000 level and have retreated to the $3950-$3970 support range [2] Group 2 - The K-line remains below the 20-day moving average, with weakening MACD momentum indicating a bearish short-term trend; the RSI is in a neutral to weak zone without clear divergence signals [3] - If gold prices break below the $3950 support, they may test the critical $3920 level; conversely, if prices stabilize above $4000 and break the recent downtrend line, bullish momentum may regain control [3] - The current gold market is in a triangular consolidation phase, with the $4050 level being a key battleground for bulls and bears [3] Group 3 - Today's gold trading focuses on two key ranges: a larger range of $4050-$3950 and a smaller range of $4000-$3962; a breakout above $3990 could signal a buying opportunity [5] - In a volatile market, the strategy should focus on high-low rhythm management, executing high sell and low buy strategies, and waiting for effective breakouts to follow the trend [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices have retreated to a critical support area, with significant weakening of bullish momentum and ongoing short-term downside risks [7] - A recent inventory increase of 5.202 million barrels has negated previous bullish signals, leading to heightened market caution regarding oil price outlook [7] - If oil prices break below the $59 support level, further downside may open up, potentially testing $58 and $56.8 levels; only a recovery above $61.50 would provide a basis for reversing the downtrend [7] Group 5 - The overall trend for oil prices is leaning towards a downward direction, with a focus on inventory trends and import changes; continued inventory increases could widen the downside potential for oil prices [9]

Gold Market - Gold experienced a slight rebound overnight, but overall operational space remains limited due to a volatile trading environment [2] - The Federal Reserve shows significant division regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell warning that further cuts cannot be guaranteed due to government shutdowns affecting economic reports [2] - Fed member Milan believes there is room for rate cuts this year, citing low inflation levels [2] - Analyst Pengcheng from Bailihau suggests that rapid rate cuts could lead to rising inflation, and the impact of government shutdowns may increase the likelihood of stagflation [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, but upward momentum is weak, with short-term moving averages exerting pressure [2] Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline overnight, with short-term downward trends not yet complete, and new lows may still be on the horizon [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose significantly by 5.202 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of 0.603 million barrels, indicating weak consumption [4] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.4729 million barrels, but with the end of the travel season, future consumption may decline [4] - Global oil inventories are also rising, with the UAE's Fujairah port showing an increase of 0.0851 million barrels [4] - The IEA's latest report indicates a supply surplus in the global oil market, with rising inventories expected [4] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a series of small bearish candles, with clear resistance above [4] Copper Market - Copper's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, with significant support from long-term moving averages [6] - The four-hour chart indicates that downward momentum has not weakened, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating some resistance from buyers but not full control [7] - The four-hour chart suggests that an upward structure has completed, potentially forming a downward ABC pattern [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overnight crude oil oscillated, and the news was relatively calm. Geopolitical concerns may intensify as the US has formulated various response plans to control Venezuelan oil resources. The market is cautious about the future, and it is difficult to break through the upper pressure level in the short - term without geopolitical boost. SC2512 is expected to trade in the 460 - 470 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2512, the fundamentals are neutral as the US government shutdown continues, OPEC+ may pause production increase in Q1 next year, and Venezuelan oil exports decreased in October. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decrease in US API and EIA inventories, which is also bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, showing a neutral signal. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long - increasing, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Kazakhstan's national energy company raised the 2025 production estimates of Kashagan and Karachaganak oil fields, with a combined increase of 510,000 tons. - The US government shutdown entered the 35th day on Tuesday, affecting federal employees, public services, and food stamp supply. There are signs that senators may be approaching an agreement. - OPEC's oil production in October increased by 300,000 barrels per day compared to September, but the growth rate slowed down [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors include positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ pausing production increase in Q1 next year. - Bearish factors include the easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increase. The short - term market is driven by intensified geopolitical conflicts, while the medium - to - long - term faces the risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.02 million barrels in the week ending October 24, and EIA inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 211,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels in the week ending October 24. As of November 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.202 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil increased. As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil also increased [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending November 2nd, global on - land crude oil inventories rebounded, floating storage inventories continued to rise significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventories reached a new high for the year, with high inventory pressure compared to the same period last year. Regionally, weekly inventories in China and Europe increased, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased, and Russia's weekly inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: The full - scope (including in - transit) global crude oil inventories reached a new high for the year, and there was still significant inventory pressure year - on - year [2]. - **Regional Crude Oil Inventory Changes**: Weekly inventories in China and Europe accumulated, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased. Russia's weekly inventory fell to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2].