Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.928, while spot gold opened at $4597.42 per ounce and is currently around $4594.97 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading at approximately 1026.30 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at about 1028.86 CNY per gram [1] - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index fell by 0.16% to 98.896, while spot gold rose by 1.97% to $4597.94 per ounce. Other precious metals also saw gains: spot silver increased by 6.51% to $85.16 per ounce, platinum rose by 3.03% to $2337.30 per ounce, and palladium gained 1.80% to $1851.00 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of January 12, COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 1129.43 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 70.15 tons to 13607.32 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.24 tons to 1070.80 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 39.47 tons to 16347.95 tons on the same date [2] - The payment direction for deferred compensation fees indicates that for Au(t+d), shorts pay longs, and for Ag(t+d), shorts also pay longs [2] Economic Events - Key economic data to be released includes Japan's trade balance for November, the US NFIB small business optimism index for December, and various CPI metrics for December, including the unadjusted and seasonally adjusted core CPI [4] - The Federal Reserve's Musalem is scheduled to speak, and the EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report [5]

货有限公司 陆上及浮仓库存均走高 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 2026-01-12 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 1月11日当周，全球原油陆上库存止跌回升,浮仓库存持续攀升,全口径（含在途）库存回落，即在途船货数量减少。陆上库存分区域看,中 国、印度、俄罗斯、欧洲、中东库存均回升。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 千桶 士機 3600000 2400000 210000 3550000 1800000 3500000 150000 3450000 120000 3400000 90000 3350000 3300000 第13屆 第17屆 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 图表 3:全球陆塑+浮仓原油 2023 - 2022 2023 - 2022 千桶 千题 3800000 49000000 4800000 3700000 470000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Although the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains relatively loose, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disruptions, and the risk premium of oil prices may rise [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical situations repeatedly disrupt the international oil market, causing wide - range fluctuations in oil prices. The long - term supply - demand of crude oil is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price changes. OPEC+ maintains stable production in the first quarter, and the risk premium of oil prices may increase [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data show different trends in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in November [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.832 million barrels in the week ending January 8, while Cushing inventories increased by 730,000 barrels. Product inventories such as gasoline and distillates increased [3]. - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ reaffirmed stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the planned production increase. The U.S. claims to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely [3]. - **Geopolitical Situations (Short - Term)**: Israeli military attacks in the Gaza Strip and Trump's statement about Greenland increase geopolitical risks, which is bullish for oil prices [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: U.S. non - farm payrolls in December were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased [3]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. OPEC+'s suspension of production increase in the first quarter, combined with short - term geopolitical disruptions, may lead to an increase in the risk premium of oil prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading are advised to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Geopolitical situations led to wide - range fluctuations in oil prices this week, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising. As of January 9, WTI crude oil rose by 2.53%, Brent crude oil rose by 3.65%, and SC crude oil rose by 0.12% [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads**: Near - month spreads strengthened slightly, and internal - external spreads fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [24][35]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in November 2025. U.S. production decreased slightly in the week ending January 8, and the number of active drilling rigs decreased [57][81]. - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [82][92]. - **Demand**: In the U.S., implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, while refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [105][115]. - **Refinery Profits**: In China, the gross profit of major refineries decreased, while the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel remained stable [126]. - **Macro - Finance**: U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [139]. - **CFTC Positions**: Net short positions in WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [149].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to rise due to concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil production amid ongoing domestic protests and restricted Russian oil exports, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply risks [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 9, the price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 2.35% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose by 2.18% [1] - For the week, the main contract price of U.S. oil futures increased by a cumulative 3.14% [1] - The main contract price of Brent oil futures rose by a cumulative 4.26% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that international oil prices are in a complex negotiation phase due to the dual impact of escalating geopolitical risks and a continuous rise in global crude oil inventories [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a collection of hot news, including China's foreign exchange and gold reserves hitting new highs, potential developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and adjustments in futures trading regulations. It also shows the performance of various commodity and financial asset sectors [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $335.79 billion, a month-on-month increase of $1.15 billion, hitting a new high since December 2015; the gold reserve was 74.15 million ounces, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces, increasing for 14 consecutive months [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated during a visit to Cyprus that negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced trading adjustments starting from January 9, including limits on intraday opening positions in silver futures and changes in trading fees and margin ratios for certain contracts [2] - Major coking enterprises agreed to continue production cuts, reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal, and stabilize prices through communication with steel mills [3] - The EIA report showed that for the week ending January 2, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.91% decline; domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, coke, and crude oil [4] - Night - session performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials rose 2.06%, precious metals 30.91%, oilseeds and oils 7.65%, non - ferrous metals 3.36%, soft commodities 29.23%, coal - coking - steel - ore 10.30%, energy 2.33%, chemicals 9.83%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.23% [4] Plate Position - The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% daily, 2.95% monthly, and 2.95% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.34% daily, rose 1.10% monthly and year - to - date [6] - Fixed income: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.23% monthly, and 0.23% year - to - date [6] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index was flat daily, rose 1.10% monthly and year - to - date; WTI crude oil fell 1.17% daily, 1.81% monthly, and 1.81% year - to - date [6] - Others: The US dollar index rose 0.14% daily, 0.48% monthly, and 0.48% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index was flat daily, fell 1.34% monthly and year - to - date [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the crude oil market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties due to the US - Venezuela event. The Venezuelan sea area's imports and exports will be affected by the blockade, and Iran has issued a strong condemnation with the escalation of the Israel - Iran situation. Supply may decline in the short - term if Venezuela enters a political transition, but the low absolute value of its output won't change the global surplus pattern in Q1. The price may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums but has limited upside elasticity. [6] - In the long - term, with political stability, new licenses, stable diluent logistics, and the expansion of US oil companies' operations, Venezuela's oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. It may become the largest supply increase uncertainty in 2026 - 2027. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, WTI decreased by 1.14, BRENT by 0.74, and DUBAI by 0.81. Other related prices also showed corresponding changes. For example, SC decreased by 11.90, and domestic gasoline decreased by 40.00. [3] b. Daily News - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on January 7 that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales, aiming to stabilize and increase its production. The Trump administration also considers establishing a compensation mechanism for US oil companies investing in Venezuela. [3] - US Attorney General Bondi said on January 8 that the US executed a seizure order on the "BELLA 1" oil tanker. The department is monitoring other vessels for similar actions. [4] - According to a source close to the White House, Venezuelan oil sales will continue indefinitely, and US sanctions on Venezuela will be reduced. Venezuela has a large proven oil reserve but a current daily output of about 800,000 barrels. [4] c. Inventory - In the week of January 2, US crude exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.91% decline. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. [5] - The average four - week supply of US crude products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a 1.86% decrease from the previous year. [5] d. Weekly Viewpoints - Before the holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated. On January 2, foreign - market crude oil closed lower. The US - Venezuela event escalated over the weekend, bringing geopolitical uncertainties to the market. [5][6] - In the short - term, Venezuelan production may decline, but it won't change the global surplus pattern. In the long - term, production may increase, but the investment attitude of the industry is cautious. [6]

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Core Insights - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased last week due to a decline in imports and an increase in refinery activity [1] Group 1: Inventory Changes - Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell last week, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] - The reduction in inventories was attributed to a drop in imports, which suggests a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Refinery Activity - Refineries operated at a slightly faster pace, contributing to the decrease in crude oil inventories [1] - Increased refinery throughput may indicate stronger demand for refined products in the market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly data shows that crude oil and oil products are mainly in a state of inventory accumulation. The single - week data is slightly bearish as the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products has increased seasonally at a high level [2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 405,000 barrels in the week ending December 19, 2025, compared with a decrease of 1.274 million barrels in the previous period [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 707,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 742,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 800,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 249,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.862 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.808 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US diesel inventory increased by 202,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.712 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US jet fuel inventory increased by 1.316 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.007 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US fuel oil inventory increased by 853,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 450,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - The inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.139 million barrels [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production was estimated to be 13.825 million barrels per day, a slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - US refined oil apparent demand was 20.31 million barrels per day, compared with 20.573 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.942 million barrels per day, compared with 9.078 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.156 million barrels per day, compared with 3.786 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 6.086 million barrels per day, compared with 6.525 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US crude oil exports were 3.616 million barrels per day, compared with 4.664 million barrels per day in the previous period. The net export of crude oil decreased by 609,000 barrels per day [4][6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.776 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.12 million barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - The US refinery utilization rate fell slightly from the high point to 94.6%, compared with 94.8% in the previous period [4][6]

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月28日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点继续回落，浮仓库存延续攀升。近期海外炼厂开工率高位运行，库存累积 主要在成品油端体现，原油累库压力有阶段性放缓的迹象。陆上库存分区域看，中国原油库存连续第8周回升，此外印度、俄罗斯库存回升，欧 中东库存回落。 洲、 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: 全球陆上原油库存 35000000 3400000 3300000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 2: 全球原油浮仓 150000 120000 90000 60000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 2024 -- 2023 2022 ...