| | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/6 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/4 | 2025/6/5 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 468. 2 1267.5 | 463. 7 1274. 2 | -4. 50 6. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情偏弱,PTA行情小跌 。PTA去库存利好再度发酵,现货货少推涨现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3725 | 1. 3781 | 0. 0056 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 825 | 820 | -5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 257 | -6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4670 | 4644 | -26.0 | | | | PTA现货价格 | 48 ...

证券研究报告 舍得酒业 (600702 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 舍得酒业：渠道减负，保持定力 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 6 月 4 日舍得酒业出席我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司对近期经 营情况、未来发展和行业方向分享观点，提出公司自 24 年以来重点关注渠 道健康，坚守长期主义，库存去化取得阶段性成效，期待公司触底破局。 舍之道、T68 等表现出色，库存去化取得阶段性成效 公司以长期健康稳健发展为主。从近期经营看，公司 Q1 业绩有所承压，但 五一期间品味舍得动销保持平稳，现阶段品味舍得重点聚焦升学宴；大众价 位舍之道、沱牌 T68 等产品实现增长，针对下沉市场争取增量。从渠道结 构看，截至 25Q1 大商占比依然较高，渠道库存良性的经销商数量过半（良 性库存标准 2-3 个月备货）。从库存表现看，从去年开始加大库存去化力度， 我们预计今年库存压力或相对较小；同时公司 25 年依然坚持去库存+市场 跟踪，针对性提高渠道健康程度。 费用端表现趋于稳定， ...

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-08 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-06 02 09 01 05 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q1 2025 with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items down by 31.01%, 34.19%, and 41.27% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment in response to market demand and channel changes, focusing on high-end liquor while also emphasizing cost-effective product layouts [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 99.10 billion, 106.70 billion, and 111.92 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.44%, with a slight decline of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, down 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reported operating cash flow of 418 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, indicating a relatively strong cash flow performance despite profit pressures [2] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.30 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 192.79% [4][3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,121.03 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.22%, while the 2024 revenue is expected to decline by 6.49% to 9,464.48 million yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.65 [4] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 7,636.04 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.55% [10]

装置检修动态: 据悉,由于原料行情近期快速上涨,聚酯长丝三家大厂一致决定即时落实亏损品种的减产动作,并开始规划下一 步减产计划,将于短期内落实。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 01 05 09 05 09 01 05 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2023 ...

Core Insights - The bicycle industry in China is experiencing a significant price war, with prices for some models halving and inventory levels surging, transitioning from a "difficult to find" market in 2020 to a phase of destocking in 2025 [2][5][12] Price Adjustments - Major brands like Merida and Giant have initiated price cuts ranging from 20% to 50% across various models since June 2024, with some international brands reducing prices by over 20,000 yuan [4][12] - A Merida dealer reported that the price of the Strada 93 model was reduced to 1,998 yuan, marking a nearly 50% decrease compared to the first half of 2024 [2][4] Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing a dual challenge of increased store numbers against a backdrop of declining consumer demand, leading to significant inventory pressures [3][11] - Many dealers, having stocked up on popular models during a previous boom, are now forced to sell at a loss due to sudden price drops from manufacturers [10][19] Inventory Levels - Companies like Zhonglu and Shanghai Phoenix reported a year-on-year increase in bicycle inventory of approximately 170% and 84%, respectively, indicating a broader trend of excess stock in the industry [5][11] - Shimano's report highlighted that while the enthusiasm for cycling remains, the overall market inventory is still high, suggesting a mismatch between supply and demand [6][12] Market Dynamics - The "cycling boom" that drove demand from 2020 to mid-2024 has cooled, leading to a more rational market environment as of late 2024 [14][15] - The mid to high-end bicycle segment saw a significant sales increase of over 20% during the cycling boom, but demand has since declined, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [14][15] Future Outlook - Many dealers predict a "store closure wave" in the latter half of 2024 due to ongoing financial pressures and unsold inventory [21] - The industry is at a turning point, with dealers like Zhang Ming and Yu Hong expressing concerns over their ability to sustain operations amid rising costs and declining sales [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 27.01 billion for FY25, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion, down 41.9% year-on-year, with FY25H2 showing a revenue and net profit decline of 5.4% and 53% respectively [1] - The expected dividend payout ratio for FY25 is 134%, exceeding market expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from retail and wholesale channels for FY25 decreased by 6.8% and 5.8% year-on-year respectively [1] - Revenue from the main brand and other brands declined by 6.1% and 9.9% year-on-year respectively [1] Store Operations - As of the end of FY25, the company had 5,020 directly operated stores, with a net closure of 1,124 stores, including 258 new openings and 1,382 closures [1] - Total sales area decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, while sales area per store increased by 7.2%, reflecting the company's "one product one strategy" approach to store adjustments [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY25 decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, primarily due to increased retail discounts, with FY25H2 showing greater discounting than FY25H1 [1] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory turnover days were 133 days, a decrease of 1 day year-on-year, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 3.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20% [2] - Cash at the end of the period was 2.59 billion, up from 1.96 billion in the same period last year [2] Brand Collaborations - The company is steadily advancing new brand collaborations, including the introduction of the high-end SOAR running brand to the Chinese market [2] - Collaborations with top outdoor brands for comprehensive operations in China are underway, alongside deepened partnerships with the Canadian high-end trail running brand nordaTM [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for FY26-28 has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.21, 0.25, and 0.30 respectively [2] - A target price of 3.45 HKD is set for FY26, based on a 15 times PE valuation [2]

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...

Group 1 - The glass industry is currently undergoing a "adjustment period" as it faces market pressures, which are seen as catalysts for transformation and upgrading [1][3] - The recent price decline in the glass market, particularly in safety glass, signals a proactive adaptation to changing market conditions, prompting companies to reassess their strategies [1][2] - Inventory pressure is a significant challenge for glass companies, but it also drives industry consolidation and optimization, leading to innovative inventory management and supply chain upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The shift in downstream procurement attitudes from engineering orders to home decoration orders has diversified consumption scenarios, despite causing order dispersion and profit compression [2] - Some companies are resuming previously halted production lines, which may lead to temporary price competition but also encourages increased investment in technology and product quality [2] - Glass companies are actively taking measures to reduce inventory, including price adjustments and utilizing futures markets for risk management, showcasing their proactive and innovative responses to challenges [2][3] Group 3 - The current challenges faced by the glass industry are seen as key drivers for transformation and upgrading, with companies focusing on product structure optimization, application expansion, and enhanced R&D efforts [3] - The gradual market adjustment and the ongoing effects of macro policies are expected to enable the glass industry to break through and enter a new phase of high-quality development [3]

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/21 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/20 2025/5/20 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 62.03 65.38 | 62.69 65.54 | 涨跌(幅) -1.05% -0.24% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 569.63 | 569.38 | 0.04% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/20 | | 美元/吨 | 699.00 | 709.50 | -1.48% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 828.00 | 840.67 | -1.51% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/20 | 元/吨 | 4732.00 | 4776.0 ...