Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will gain upward space [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.47 dollars, a 0.74% decline, to 63.35 dollars; Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.09 dollars, a 0.14% decline, to 66.32 dollars; INE main crude oil futures fell 11.20 yuan, a 2.24% decline, to 489.8 yuan [1] - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.39 million barrels, a 3.85% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.25 million barrels to 13.16 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 6.55 million barrels, a 5.20% increase; naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels to 4.96 million barrels, a 6.13% decline; aviation kerosene increased by 0.31 million barrels to 6.79 million barrels, a 4.74% increase; total refined oil increased by 0.19 million barrels to 40.85 million barrels, a 0.46% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production resumed its decline, but enterprise profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory accumulation accelerated due to faster unloading and MTO device shutdowns. Inland inventory decreased due to olefin procurement, with less pressure. Methanol valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1728 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [5] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continued to decline, and enterprise profits were at a low level but expected to bottom out and rebound. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is increasing, and future demand will focus on compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [7] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in seasonal, demand, and production - reduction expectations; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and less - than - expected production reduction. As of August 7, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from last year. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from last year. As of August 3, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 tons, a 0.4% decline [7][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on quick trades. Consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PVC09 contract fell 53 yuan to 4993 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4890 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 103 (+ 33) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 (- 14) yuan/ton [9] - **Analysis**: Cost remained stable, production rate increased to 79.5%, downstream production rate was 42.9%. Factory inventory was 33.7 (- 0.8) tons, and social inventory was 77.7 (+ 5.4) tons. Enterprise profits reached a high for the year, with high valuation pressure. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the short - term outlook is poor. Observe whether exports can reverse the inventory situation [9] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level for the same period, with room for upward correction [11] - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment was positive, and cost support remained. Pure benzene production decreased slightly, and supply was still abundant. Styrene production continued to increase, and port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the three S industries was in the off - season. After inventory reduction, the price may follow the cost trend [11][12] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in Q3, and cost support remains [14] - **Analysis**: Spot prices fell, and PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventory is high, and demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. In August, there is a 110 - ton production capacity plan. The price will be determined by the cost and supply [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, and production is expected to increase [15] - **Analysis**: Demand is in the off - season. In August, there is a 45 - ton production capacity plan. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price will be dominated by cost and is expected to follow the oil price [15] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PX09 contract fell 30 yuan to 6726 yuan, the PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 831 dollars, and the basis was 111 (- 41) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 50 (+ 4) yuan [17] - **Analysis**: China's PX production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; Asia's was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had production rate adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In July, South Korea's PX exports to China increased by 3.4 tons year - on - year. Inventory decreased by 21 tons in June. PX production remains high, and downstream PTA has short - term maintenance. PX inventory is expected to continue to decline, and valuation has support [17][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PTA09 contract fell 4 yuan to 4684 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 18 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+ 18) yuan [20] - **Analysis**: PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some devices had production rate adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased by 3.5 tons on August 1. PTA processing fees have limited space, and future demand depends on order improvement [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the EG09 contract fell 12 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4465 yuan, the basis was 75 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 4) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: Supply decreased to 68.4%, with some device adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Valuation is relatively high, and the short - term outlook is weak [21]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil market is experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical premiums and supply-demand imbalances, with bearish sentiment increasing as summer demand ends, and potential further pressure on oil prices if tariff stalemates or supply surpluses worsen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil market is in a phase of soft power consolidation, relying on the reactivation of geopolitical premiums, while hard power remains unchanged, leading to continued volatility [1][2]. - Geopolitical events, such as attacks by Houthi forces on commercial ships, inject risk premiums into oil prices, but do not result in actual supply disruptions, with OPEC's idle capacity (approximately 5 million barrels per day) still able to buffer risks [2][3]. - The oil price fluctuation range (e.g., NY crude at $58-$72 per barrel) is driven by environmental adaptability, reflecting market adjustments to geopolitical conflicts and policy risks [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Non-OPEC countries are increasing supply significantly (e.g., Brazil and Iraq adding 450,000 barrels per day), outpacing demand growth, with potential daily surpluses reaching 950,000 barrels by 2025 [3]. - The end of summer demand has exacerbated bearish sentiment, with consumption weakening post-peak travel season and compounded by U.S. tariff increases, leading to a decline in oil prices of over 7% since August [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and supply surpluses may trigger further declines in oil prices, with daily demand potentially reduced by 150,000 to 200,000 barrels due to suppressed global trade activities [2][3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - With the temporary cease - fire of the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has shrunk. The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract has experienced a high - level correction. In the future, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears [2][5]. - The improvement of the macro - sentiment has led to an increase in commodity valuations, and the risk appetite of the commodity market has significantly rebounded [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Content Macro Environment - Overseas markets are optimistic. The US Congress has passed relevant bills, which may lead to a loose fiscal policy and help the US debt achieve a soft landing. The US has reached tariff agreements with multiple economies, and the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US have raised high expectations in the global financial market. This has improved the macro - factors and increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [3]. Rubber Production in Thailand and Cambodia - Thailand is the world's largest natural rubber producer, accounting for about one - third of the global total output. In 2024, its production was 466.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59%. In 2025 from January to May, production was 143.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.73%. In 2024, exports were 392.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%. In 2025 from January to May, exports were 177.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%. Cambodia is an emerging rubber - producing country. In 2024, its production was 40.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%, and exports were 39.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.65%. Thailand's annual production and exports are 11.45 times and 9.83 times that of Cambodia respectively [4]. Impact of the Conflict on Rubber Production - The conflict area between Thailand and Cambodia is mainly in Thailand's Surin Province and Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey Province. In Thailand, the rubber production in Surin Province is limited. In Cambodia, the main rubber - producing areas are not in Oddar Meanchey Province. So the conflict has a limited impact on rubber production, and the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has decreased [5].

Core Viewpoint - AMD's CEO Lisa Su emphasizes that the cost increase of American-made chips is justified by the value of supply chain resilience, leading to a significant market response and a 4% stock price increase [1][3]. Group 1: Cost and Supply Chain Dynamics - The market's reaction to Su's comments reflects a revaluation of "nearshore manufacturing" as a new valuation anchor for tech stocks, with AMD securing scarce production capacity ahead of potential tariff increases [3]. - AMD's strategy includes a 10% allocation of high-end production capacity to the U.S., which is seen as a strategic move to create a natural moat against global trade tensions [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning and Technology - AMD is gaining a competitive edge in the 2nm technology space with the delivery of the first N2 process Zen 6 chip, indicating that U.S. manufacturing capabilities are improving [3]. - The company is also focusing on local partnerships in China, forming an AI application alliance with over 100 partners, which is expected to grow to 170 by year-end [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Commitments and Market Resilience - AMD has made four key commitments to the Chinese market, including a dedicated R&D team and partnerships with over 100 cloud instances and universities, which serve as a counterbalance to potential U.S. tariffs [5]. - The company's historical ability to turn challenges into opportunities is highlighted by its significant stock price recovery and revenue growth despite facing export losses [5][6]. Group 4: Future Technology Developments - AMD is preparing for future advancements with the MI350 chip, which boasts a 35x increase in inference performance while being 30% cheaper than NVIDIA's comparable products [6]. - The company is also developing the Helios super rack for large-scale model training, positioning itself as a key player in the upcoming AI PC market [6]. Group 5: Market Strategy and Investment Outlook - The semiconductor industry is entering a complex phase where short-term cost concerns, mid-term production capacity, and long-term ecosystem development are critical [6]. - AMD's approach to defining value in the context of a 5%-20% cost premium is seen as a strategic move that could reshape pricing power in the semiconductor supply chain [6].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance from July 7 to July 11, with the black series and European shipping lines leading gains, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 1.85%, while crude oil rose by 2.07% and lithium carbonate increased by 1.58% [1] - The black series saw significant increases, with coking coal up by 8.76%, coke up by 6.04%, and iron ore up by 4.30% [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 8.76%, reaching 913.0 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of supply-side reforms and policies aimed at reducing "disorderly competition" [1][2] - Despite the price rebound, the supply-side remains loose, with domestic production recovering and import capabilities from Mongolia and Russia remaining strong [1][2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between weak realities and strong expectations in July, with potential pressures on coking coal prices due to reduced production incentives and seasonal demand declines [2][3] Group 3: Oil Market Trends - The geopolitical premium in oil prices has dissipated, with Brent crude oil rising by 3.09% to $70.63 per barrel, while WTI crude oil increased by 1.28% to $67.35 per barrel [4] - The oil market is returning to fundamentals, with OPEC+ discussing production increases, which may exceed market expectations [4][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised global oil demand growth down to 720,000 barrels per day from previous estimates, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.1% decrease in June CPI and a 3.6% year-on-year decline in PPI, indicating mixed economic signals [6] - Core CPI showed a slight recovery, supported by policies promoting durable goods, while PPI's decline reflects seasonal demand downturns in energy sectors [6][7] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and overcapacity, leading to price rebounds in industrial products like coking coal and rebar [6][7] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In the lithium carbonate market, supply is expected to remain high due to ongoing production ramp-ups, while demand from traditional automotive sales may face challenges [7] - The iron ore market is supported by resilient demand, although global shipments are expected to increase in the second half of the year [7] - The agricultural sector, particularly in live pig prices, is experiencing a decline, but future supply increases from new piglets may stabilize prices in the coming quarters [8]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent attack by Houthi forces on a commercial ship, which has triggered a risk premium. This, combined with uncertainties surrounding Iran's nuclear negotiations and impending trade tariffs, creates a complex environment for oil prices, which are fluctuating within a range of $65 to $75 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The Houthi forces attacked the "Magic Ocean" vessel, which was reportedly heading to Israel, using drones and missiles, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [2]. - The potential for disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact oil prices, especially if such disruptions last more than 72 hours [2][3]. - The ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could either stabilize or further destabilize the oil market, depending on their outcome [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current oil prices reflect a balance of geopolitical risks and uncertainties related to trade tariffs, with a notable demand uncertainty stemming from these factors [1][3]. - The market is characterized by a "consolidation pattern" where supply pressures from OPEC's increased production are being partially offset by resilient demand during the summer driving season [3]. - The oil price is influenced by a dynamic adjustment of market expectations regarding tariff impacts on demand and geopolitical conflicts affecting supply [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The Houthi attack has injected a risk premium into the oil market through multiple channels, including shipping disruptions and the potential for increased costs due to heightened shipping risks [3]. - The financial leverage from hedge funds may amplify price movements as they adjust their positions in response to geopolitical events [3]. - The interplay between a weakening dollar and trade tariffs creates a complex scenario for oil pricing, where the financial attributes of oil may be enhanced despite potential demand suppression [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend and Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2509 contract are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.03% at 507 yuan/barrel on the overnight session of Monday, and the 2508 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has re - emerged due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a rebound in geopolitical premium and an increase in the confidence of oil market bulls after a previous significant decline [5]. - The demand factor of crude oil has come into play with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. - Market sentiment has been repaired as Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, and the bullish atmosphere has supported the sharp rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG futures market has returned to a narrow - range oscillation state with insufficient market drivers. The swap prices of propane and butane in the overseas market and domestic LPG spot prices have remained generally stable with small fluctuations [1] - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose. After the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East subsided, overseas supply is abundant, especially US LPG exports are still at a high level. The supply growth space has further expanded after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects. The domestic refinery output has gradually recovered as maintenance ended, and the recent arrival volume has increased again, with high inventory at East China ports [1] - In terms of demand, the combustion demand is weak. Although the overall operating load of PDH plants has rebounded to over 70%, the profit is still under pressure, which restricts the further increase of the operating rate and raw material demand [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On July 2, 2025, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4120 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4555 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4480 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4820 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4650 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 585 dollars/ton and 540 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4607 yuan/ton for propane and 4253 yuan/ton for butane [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 590 dollars/ton and 540 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4646 yuan/ton for propane and 4253 yuan/ton for butane [1] Group 4: Chart Information - There are charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, as well as the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract, the near - month spread, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts [3]