1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on short - term observation [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall decline of the energy sector was due to the ebb of previous driving factors, including the rebound of the US dollar index and the marginal easing of the Iranian situation. The external propane - butane and PG futures followed the decline [1]. - The relatively weak trend of the PG market was due to the high raw material cost suppressing downstream profit and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas. The warehouse receipt and delivery game also brought disturbances. The future trend depends on the Iranian situation, and the LPG market is expected to have an oversupply if the situation eases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 2, regional prices in different markets were as follows: Shandong 4450 - 4520 yuan/ton, Northeast 3840 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China 4200 - 4530 yuan/ton, East China 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River Basin 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton, Northwest 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, South China 4800 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China decreased by 25 and 20 dollars/ton respectively. The RMB - converted prices decreased by 196 yuan/ton. In South China, propane decreased by 25 dollars/ton and butane by 25 dollars/ton, with RMB - converted prices down 196 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Fundamental and Market Structure - Overseas supply tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia raised the February CP. However, the high raw material cost suppressed downstream profit, and the price inversion and warehouse - receipt issues affected the PG market. The Iranian situation is a key factor for future trends [2]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, with short - term observation as the main approach. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-03 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 市场波动加剧，盘面大幅回撤 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌7.01%，报2681元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌5.92%，报3128 元/吨。 近期能源板块整体上涨背后有来自宏观、地缘、资金面等多重因素的驱动，上周五特朗普提名凯文沃什作为新一 任美联储主席，美元指数低位反弹，宏观情绪有所转弱，大宗商品流动性整体出现阶段性退潮。站在地缘层面来 看，上周伊朗局势较为紧张，市场担忧美国与以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，导致油市地缘溢价一度大幅攀升。周 末并未爆发冲突，从伊朗和美方最新表态来看局势有边际缓和的迹象，地缘溢价有所回落。在前期推涨因素退潮 后，昨日能源板块整体出现大幅下跌，高硫燃料油与伊朗关联较为紧密，之前上涨时弹性较大，回撤时幅度同样 大于低硫燃料油。 站在基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油呈现"东强西弱"格局，亚太地区现货收紧，新加坡库存连续下滑，国内注册 仓单量减少，排除宏观与地缘层面的扰动外，自身市场结构仍存在支撑。低硫燃料油整体市场矛盾 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...

中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 地缘溢价大幅回吐,美伊局势主导油价 r 发 网 动态 2026年2月2日,原油期货主力合约下跌7.02%。 同时报警 下跌原因 据央视新闻报道。2月1日伊朗官员表示伊斯兰革命卫队没有在霍尔木兹海峡进行演习的计划，伊朗正在与美国"进行对话"，前期美伊局势紧张引发的地缘溢价有所消退。 基本咱情况 当前原油市场基本面难言乐观。Kpler数据显示2月1日当周全球原油年存大幅回升，陷透报道及数据显示前期闹低的哈萨克斯坦供应当前处回升阶段，炼厂高开工下成品油库存在力偏大、中东原 油现货贴水趋弱。前期期价主要受伊朗局势担忧提振，基本面相对偏弱则限制上方空间。 基本面仍处供应过剩，但伊朗地缘局势对供应预期的潜在找动较为频繁，关注后期美伊谈判进展。若伊朗局势持续缓和，油价则有望延续回落。 风险提示 风险因素:极端天气;地缘局势;意外断供。 图表 1:海外样本地区成品油总库存李节性 全球陆地+海上(含在途)原油库存 十八 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 百万桶 4900000 580 48000000 560 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].

尽管避险逻辑在宏观层面依然稳固，但短期内投资者需高度警惕高位回调风险。黄金上方阻力见于 5626.80美元，支撑位在5000美元大关；白银上方阻力位121.785美元，下方支撑在100美元。ZFX山海证 券总结表示，在全球流动性博弈加剧的背景下，建议交易者密切关注地缘局势的突发进展，并严格执行 止损策略，以应对可能出现的极速洗盘行情。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 1月30日，周四国际贵金属市场呈现极端冲高回落态势。ZFX山海证券表示，Comex黄金与白银在早盘 分别刷新了5626.80美元和121.785美元的历史纪录，尽管随后因短期获利盘了结导致价格有所修正，但 1月30日，周四国际贵金属市场呈现极端冲高回落态势。ZFX山海证券表示，Comex黄金与白银在早盘 分别刷新了5626.80美元和121.785美元的历史纪录，尽管随后因短期获利盘了结导致价格有所修正，但 地缘政治风险驱动的避险买盘依然是支撑价格的核心动能。在4月黄金合约回踩5290.60美元、3月白银 跌至112.54美元附近的过程中，市场对中东局势及美国内政不确定性的敏感度依然维持高位。 当前宏观环境复杂多变，地缘溢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost side of asphalt remains strong, and the market continues to rise. The geopolitical premium in the oil market has increased significantly due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the macro - sentiment of commodities has also warmed up, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices and strengthening the cost - side support for asphalt. However, the current market pricing is more based on expectations, the terminal consumption of asphalt is weak, and the basis has weakened significantly after the continuous rise of the futures price. If the geopolitical situation eases, there is room for a correction in the futures market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 29, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,478 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton or 3.39% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 170,058 lots, a decrease of 5,221 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 402,578 lots, a decrease of 51,997 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,506 - 3,550 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,130 - 3,300 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,250 - 3,350 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,200 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Iran. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

市场分析 1、1月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3478元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨114 元/吨，涨幅3.39%；持仓170058手，环比下跌5221手，成交402578手，环比下跌51997手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3550元/吨；山东，3130—3300元/吨；华南，3250— 3350元/吨；华东，3200—3230元/吨。 中东局势依然较为紧张，市场担忧美国对伊朗发动军事打击。由于伊朗自身产量规模较大，且临近全球 石油运输最重要的隘口"霍尔木兹海峡"，因此一旦发生军事冲突，对石油市场的影响将十分显著。因此 在美国打击伊朗风险增加的背景下，油市隐含的地缘溢价大幅抬升。此外，近期大宗商品宏观情绪整体 升温，在贵金属、有色领涨的引领下，部分资金流入能源化工等相对低位板块，促进了市场的涨幅。在 地缘与宏观因素的催化下，国际油价持续走高，沥青成本端支撑增强。此外，沥青在美国逐步控制委内 瑞拉石油资源后，国内沥青生产的核心原料供应收紧，需要在中东等地寻找替代资源，如果中东地区再 爆发危机，可能会加剧原料短缺的困境。但需要注意，目前市场定价更多来自于预期而非现 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry continued to be strong today supported by crude oil at the cost - end, with the short - term performance affected by the Iran geopolitical situation [1][2] - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose, but the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations declined, demand weakened, and EIA weekly inventories increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose. However, the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium. The subsequent geopolitical situation may evolve in three ways, with the first two being the key points of concern [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose above the shock upper limit of 460 today, and the short - term structure turned to the long side. The short - term support below is at the 460 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [4] (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is a pressure for the accelerated recovery and increased load of maintenance devices in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction of positions at high levels [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and reached a new high today, with the short - term support at the 7530 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive upward space brought by the rising profit of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The medium - term overseas demand is weak, and the domestic import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 5930 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase of synthetic rubber prices and runs passively following synthetic rubber [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 16080 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [14] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but the cold wave in Europe and the United States has promoted the rise of overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices, leading to a contraction of overseas butadiene supply and an increase in international butadiene prices. Short - term cost - push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [19] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 12800 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [19] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the medium term before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic of the decline in textile polyester in the short term, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500 at the hourly - level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22] (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory increase due to weak demand in the off - season and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in the downstream. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly - level has come to an end. It fluctuated within the day today. The pressure at the 5370 level in the 15 - minute decline is temporarily effective. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6650 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26] (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has started seasonal inventory reduction, but the fundamentals are weak due to the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback of early parking and load reduction of MTO devices. However, the Iran geopolitical sentiment has heated up again recently, and the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk and the large capital inflow into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline and a short - term upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, testing the previous high but failing. The short - term support below is at the 2255 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [33] (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with seasonal inventory increase pressure, high supply operation, and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term support at the 3825 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [35] (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6815 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still feature high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with the surplus pattern continuing. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and the previous period, and the pressure of new production capacity release is still high. The total demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly decreased due to the downstream replenishment demand before the festival, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period last year. Without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually downward - repaired, and a short - selling idea is maintained for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level may have come to an end. It increased in volume and rose today, and the closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 1215 at the end of the session. The short - term decline may have ended. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see after stopping the loss of short positions [41][43] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation) in caustic soda remains. With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to see a reversal [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term pressure at the 2000 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns to the long side [44]