Group 1 - The ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Joint Communique emphasizes the importance of a predictive, transparent, inclusive, free, fair, sustainable, and rules-based multilateral trading system [1]

Group 1 - Trump's announcement on July 7 to impose high tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [1][4] - On July 9, Trump extended tariffs to an additional 6 countries, totaling 20 nations affected by the new measures [2][4] - The tariffs will not take effect immediately but are set to begin on August 1, allowing countries time to negotiate [4][6] Group 2 - Business leaders in Los Angeles expressed strong concerns about the tariffs, highlighting the negative impact on trade, budgeting, and investment expansion [4][6] - The closure of a century-old restaurant in California exemplifies the adverse effects of the tariffs on American businesses [6] - The tariffs have led to significant market reactions, indicating a backlash against protectionist policies [6][9] Group 3 - Notably, India, Canada, and EU countries were excluded from the tariff list, as they had previously taken countermeasures against the U.S. [6][9] - The EU plans to initiate countermeasures on July 14, emphasizing the need to rebuild partnerships and respect multilateral trade systems [6][9] - The strong stance of the Trump administration has complicated negotiations with countries like Japan, which remains firm on protecting its agricultural interests [8][9] Group 4 - Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on copper raises concerns about the impact on U.S. industries reliant on copper for electronics and infrastructure [11][13] - The U.S. currently meets only 50% of its copper demand domestically, indicating a significant supply gap that could lead to increased prices and costs for consumers [13] - The potential for rising copper prices could affect various sectors, including infrastructure investment and employment [13] Group 5 - The ongoing discussions regarding the appointment of a "shadow Federal Reserve chairman" have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its implications for the dollar and bond markets [13][14] - Two prominent Republican candidates for the position are Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh, both of whom have close ties to the Trump administration [14][16] - The actions of the Trump administration, from tariffs to potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, are expected to have profound impacts on the market [16]

Group 1 - The core issue of the trade dispute between the EU and the US is centered around tariffs in specific industries, particularly steel, automobiles, copper, and potentially pharmaceuticals [1] - The EU is eager to reach an agreement with the US, as it primarily exports pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, but the US has not committed to lowering tariffs or accepting the EU's proposed "freeze clause" [1] - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures, with the first phase set to automatically take effect on July 14 [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced a new 50% tariff on all copper imports to the US, without specifying the effective date [1] - Trump has threatened 25% tariffs on various countries, including Japan and South Korea, and warned that if these countries respond with increased tariffs, the US will match those increases [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that countries failing to reach a trade agreement by August 1 could see tariffs revert to previously announced levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade dispute between the EU and the US is primarily focused on tariffs in specific industries, particularly steel, automobiles, copper, and potentially pharmaceuticals [1]. Group 1: Trade Dispute Details - The EU exports mainly pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, highlighting the urgency for a trade agreement with the US to achieve clear outcomes [1]. - The US has not committed to lowering tariffs or accepted the EU's proposal for a "freeze clause," which would prevent new trade restrictions before a final agreement is reached [1]. - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures, with the first phase set to automatically take effect on July 14 [1]. Group 2: Political Context - The current US administration, under President Trump, is perceived as lacking sincerity in negotiations, focusing more on power dynamics rather than fostering a partnership [1]. - The EU is advocating for the rebuilding of a genuine partnership and promoting a global cooperation framework that respects the multilateral trade system [1]. Group 3: Recent Developments - President Trump announced a new 50% tariff on all copper imports to the US, although the specific effective date for this tariff has not been disclosed [1].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade dispute between the EU and the US is primarily focused on tariffs in specific industries, particularly steel, automobiles, copper, and potentially pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Trade Dispute Details - The EU exports mainly pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, highlighting the urgency for a trade agreement with the US to achieve clear outcomes [1] - The US has not committed to lowering tariffs or accepted the EU's proposal for a "freeze clause," which would prevent new trade restrictions before a final agreement is reached [1] - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures, with the first phase set to automatically take effect on July 14 [1] Group 2: Political Context - The current US administration, under President Trump, is perceived as lacking sincerity in negotiations, focusing more on "language of power" rather than fostering a partnership [1] - Trump announced a new 50% tariff on all copper imports to the US, although the specific effective date for this tariff has not been disclosed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current trade dispute between the EU and the US is focused on specific industry tariffs, particularly in steel, automobiles, copper, and potentially pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Trade Dispute Details - The EU exports mainly pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, highlighting the urgency for a trade agreement with the US to achieve clear outcomes [1] - The US has not committed to lowering tariffs or accepted the EU's proposed "freeze clause," which would prevent new trade restrictions before a final agreement is reached [1] Group 2: EU's Response and Position - The EU is prepared with countermeasures, which will automatically take effect on July 14 [1] - The EU perceives the current US administration as lacking sincerity, conveying more of a "language of power" rather than a "language of partnership" [1] - The EU calls for the rebuilding of a genuine partnership and the promotion of a global cooperation framework that respects the multilateral trading system [1]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a report assessing global trade developments from mid-October 2024 to mid-May 2025, highlighting increased trade policy activities and escalating tensions among major trading partners [1] - The report predicts a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, with a subsequent growth of 2.5% expected in 2026, indicating a slowdown in trade activities [1] Trade Measures - During the reporting period, 644 trade measures related to goods were recorded, indicating a rise in the introduction of new trade measures, with trade remedy measures accounting for 46% of these [2] - Other recorded measures include 207 trade facilitation measures and 141 additional trade measures, with the latter covering an estimated trade value of $2.7327 trillion, the highest recorded since the WTO's trade monitoring began in 2009 [2] - By 2024, the trade value covered by these measures is estimated at $2.959 trillion, representing 12.5% of global imports, while affected export trade is valued at $81.17 billion, or 3.5% of global exports [2] - By the end of May 2025, the trade value covered is projected to reach approximately $4.6041 trillion, accounting for 19.4% of global imports, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Economic Support Measures - Since the 2008 financial crisis, general economic support measures have been a significant part of trade monitoring, but the number of reported measures has decreased from 224 in 2024 to 100 in 2025, indicating a shift towards more strategic and comprehensive non-financial interventions [3] - The report notes that the U.S. has implemented a series of bilateral and global trade measures, prompting retaliatory actions from other economies, including Canada and the EU, primarily involving tariff increases [3] Recommendations - The report calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for increased transparency in trade policies [4] - It advocates for strengthening the multilateral trading system to ensure fair and effective enforcement of trade rules and encourages collaborative solutions for sustainable trade policies, particularly in renewable energy and clean technology [4]

Core Insights - China is a key driver of economic growth, trade, and investment within the BRICS nations, leveraging its large economy, continuous growth momentum, and effective policy execution [1][4] - The current global political landscape, characterized by rising protectionism from Northern countries, particularly the U.S., presents a historic opportunity for BRICS nations to strengthen internal relations and deepen trade and investment cooperation [2][3] Group 1: Trade and Investment Cooperation - The BRICS nations should prioritize enhancing trade and investment levels among themselves to establish a significant presence in global economic, trade, and political discussions [3][4] - Effective tools and frameworks need to be constructed to promote substantial growth in trade and investment among BRICS members, especially in light of the current global situation [4][5] - The recent BRICS Business Forum highlighted the urgency for member countries to capitalize on the unique global political environment to solidify their economic ties [2][3] Group 2: Africa's Role and Opportunities - Africa is increasingly positioning itself as a continent of opportunities, seeking investment rather than aid, with its rich natural resources and youthful population [2][5] - BRICS nations should view Africa as a strategically significant investment destination, as its resources and capabilities can significantly contribute to the economic development of BRICS countries [5][6] - The New Development Bank (NDB) is focused on financing infrastructure projects in Africa, which is crucial for addressing development gaps and enhancing investment opportunities [5][6] Group 3: China's Influence and Technological Advancements - China's expanding global influence positions it as a leader in maintaining the multilateral trade system, which benefits its relationships with countries like South Africa [2][4] - China's advancements in digital technology and artificial intelligence provide competitive advantages in trade efficiency and innovation, which can be leveraged by other BRICS nations [4][5] - The collaboration among BRICS countries is essential to identify and integrate specific advantages to enhance the group's global competitiveness while addressing domestic priorities [4][5]

"大而美"法案的支持者声称，法案将通过企业回流与投资增长重塑美国经济竞争力。不过，当减税红利 被关税成本抵消，企业实际承担的合规成本与供应链中断损失，可能远超税收优惠。更关键的是，以邻 为壑的政策必然引发反制——欧盟已酝酿针对性关税，新兴市场则在加速"去美元化"布局。这种对抗性 循环一旦形成，全球经济增长的整体蛋糕将持续萎缩，最终反噬美国企业的海外利润根基。 本届美国政府就职以来推出的种种争议政策，反映出美国国内经济治理失序的困境。这种政策变动正对 世界经济带来多重冲击。 首先，多边贸易体系遭遇信任危机。当美国以国内法案为由单方面调整关税，其行为违背了世界贸易组 织（WTO）框架下的互惠原则。欧盟、日本等传统盟友被迫重新评估与美国的贸易关系，新兴经济体 则加速推进区域自贸协定以规避系统性风险。全球供应链从效率优先转向安全优先的重构进程，因美国 政策不可预测性而显著提速。 其次，美元信用基础面临持续侵蚀。法案再度提升债务上限，虽然暂时避免债务违约，却让美国国债规 模突破40万亿美元。当财政纪律让位于政治周期，各国央行对美元资产的长期信心必然受损。历史表 明，主权货币的全球地位不仅依赖市场，更需要货币发行国的财政 ...

东盟作为亚洲地区重要的区域组织，在多极世界中发挥着越来越重要的作用。近年来，东盟通过加强内 部合作，推动区域经济一体化进程，不断提升自身在全球经济中的地位。 7月3日，第9届东盟论坛在新加坡名胜世界会议中心举办。本届论坛由新加坡工商联合总会（SBF）、 大华银行、立杰律师事务所及新加坡容诚公司共同举办，以"多极世界中的东盟一体化"为主题，旨在探 讨东盟在快速变化的地缘政治和宏观经济潮流中如何加强凝聚力。来自东盟成员国及其他约20个国家和 地区的政策制定者、高级政府官员、商界领袖等600多名代表参加了论坛。 新加坡副总理兼贸易及工业部部长颜金勇在论坛开幕式上的致辞中指出，当前国际贸易格局正面临深刻 调整，东盟必须在变局中坚持团结合作，主动调整自身战略布局，强化内部整合、拓展外部合作，并坚 定支持多边贸易体系，坚决捍卫以世界贸易组织（WTO）为核心的多边规则体系，呼吁共同致力于 WTO改革。他建议，东盟企业必须正视对美国出口成本上升的现实，并且不要期望今后几年内出现改 变，要积极应对供应链审查，主动推进市场与产品多元化进程，抓住新的发展机遇。他认为，尽管面临 诸多挑战，但这也是企业重新定位、争取先机的良机。只要东 ...