纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价8日上涨1.40%，收于每盎司4060.60美 元。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨1.95%，收于每盎司48.44美元。 美国政府关门及其他不确定地缘政治因素引发的避险需求继续提振贵金属价格，黄金、白银价格当天继 续大幅上涨，12月黄金期价创下4072.40美元历史新高。白银价格触及14年来49.04美元最高点，接近略 高于50美元的历史高点。 英国央行8日称，人工智能公司估值过高，以及美联储独立性面临挑战，加剧了股票"市场大幅回调"的 风险。 分析人士认为，金价最终突破每盎司4000美元可能会引发市场波动，但无法阻止本轮牛市势头。相反， 金价回调是买入良机，预计金价上涨趋势将持续到明年上半年，届时平均金价将创下每盎司4400美元新 高。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头拥有强劲技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是突破4100美元坚固阻力 价位。空头的下一个下行价格目标是跌破3850美元坚固技术支撑价位。 法国政治危机令欧盟和欧洲市场紧张不安，导致美元指数过去三周大幅上涨，当日触及9周高点。欧元 则跌至两个月低点。此外，新西兰央行降息幅度超出预期并 ...

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI was slightly lower than forecasted at 50 instead of 51, but still indicated positive development [1] - Despite the absence of official US labor market data, private sector indicators show a consolidation of hiring and new payrolls, maintaining a mildly positive sentiment among investors [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 closed the week in green, indicating sustained market momentum [2] - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high at approximately $125,000, while crude oil prices fell to nearly $60 [2] Crude Oil Market - OPEC+ decided to modestly increase production, which is viewed as a bearish factor for crude oil prices [3] - Crude oil futures are trending downward, with potential support around the $59-60 area, where a breakout could trigger short selling [7] - The bearish sentiment in crude oil persists despite geopolitical concerns, as indicated by market reactions to US President Trump's warnings to Hamas [4] S&P 500 Analysis - The S&P 500 index is positioned above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, showing signs of weakening momentum [8] - The tech sector faced pressure, which may indicate a normal sector rotation or a precursor to a broader market correction [8] Upcoming Events - Traders are anticipating the end of the government shutdown and developments from Israeli-Hamas talks [5] - Key economic publications to watch include the FOMC minutes and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing federal government shutdown is creating uncertainty in the stock market, leading to potential volatility, but there are strong long-term investment opportunities available [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons to Invest - The long-term potential of the market remains lucrative despite short-term volatility risks due to the government shutdown [3]. - Historically, investors who remained in the market during downturns have achieved the highest returns, indicating that patience can be rewarding [4]. - An extreme hypothetical scenario suggests that even if the current shutdown leads to a recession similar to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500 has historically rebounded significantly, with total returns of 343% since December 2007 [5][7]. Group 2: Reasons to Exercise Caution - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the government shutdown and its potential economic impact may warrant caution for some investors [1][6]. - The immediate aftermath of a recession can be challenging, as portfolios may decline in value without clear recovery timelines [7].

市场普遍预期非农就业人数增加约5万，但或受季节性因素影响而有上行风险。然而，整体趋势仍然疲 弱，年内就业增长料将维持在10万以下，进一步反映就业市场正在降温。 面对这些不确定因素，市况前景愈趋难以判断，部分投资者已开始降低风险。 美国联邦政府正在停摆，普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，市场正预期重要经济数据将会延 迟公布，包括10月3日的就业数据。对以数据为依据的美联储而言，这带来挑战，尤其是当投资者正在 评估未来减息的时机和可能性之际。 美联储或需依赖ADP私人就业和首次申领失业救济金等较不完整的指标，令政策前景更添不确定因素。 数据缺乏透明度或加剧短期市场波动，令投资者难以建立具有信心的部署。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience in the face of the government shutdown, with the S&P 400 index up 8% and continuing a three-month winning streak [1] - Market experts anticipate a muted reaction from equity markets initially, while bond markets may see a slight decrease in yields [2] - Historical patterns indicate that the duration of the shutdown will significantly impact market sentiment, with longer shutdowns likely causing more damage [3] Market Reactions - The current government shutdown is the 14th since 1981, and while it can lead to market declines, the immediate impact appears limited [4] - If the shutdown persists, retail investors may become more cautious, while experienced investors might look for leverage opportunities [5] Potential Market Winners and Losers - In the event of an extended shutdown, alternative investments such as gold and cryptocurrencies may see increased interest as investors seek safer options [6] - Government bonds and fixed-income products are expected to perform well, with rising prices and falling yields due to a flight-to-safety trend [7]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown continues as the Senate again rejected a temporary funding bill, leading to potential disruptions in public services and economic data releases [6][7][9] - Major U.S. stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching record closing highs, indicating resilience in the market despite the ongoing shutdown [2][4] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the government shutdown may amplify market volatility, with potential GDP impacts estimated at a reduction of approximately 0.1% for each week of the shutdown [9][10] Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 0.09% to 46,441.1 points, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.34% to 6,711.2 points, both achieving record closing highs [2] - Notable stock performances included Merck up 7.38%, Nike up 6.47%, and Amgen up 5.78%, leading the Dow [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.44%, with key Chinese stocks like Baidu up 4.30% and JD.com up 3.40%, outperforming the broader market [4][5] Economic Implications - The government shutdown has led to approximately 750,000 federal employees being furloughed, with essential services being maintained [7][9] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the impact of the shutdown on financial markets and overall economic activity will depend on its duration, with historical data suggesting limited long-term effects [9][10] - The inability to release key economic data due to the shutdown may lead to fluctuations in bond yields and increased stock market volatility [10]

【导读】美国政府停摆持续！自由女神像火炬或因政府停摆而 " 熄火 " 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 大家早上好！昨夜今晨，又有很多大事发生。 美参议院再次否决临时拨款法案，政府停摆持续。自由女神像火炬或因政府停摆而 " 熄火 " ！摩根士丹利发表研报表示，美国政府停摆可能放大市场波动。 道指、标普 500 指数创收盘历史新高 美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨 0.09% ，报 46441.1 点；标普 500 指数涨 0.34% ，报 6711.2 点；纳指涨 0.42% ，报 22755.16 点。其中，道指、标普 500 指数均创收盘历史 新高。默克涨 7.38% ，耐克涨 6.47% ，安进涨 5.78% ，领涨道指。 道琼斯工业平均(DJI) 10-01 16:20:01 | 46441 10 | | --- | | +43.21 +0.09% 今开 46366.78 成交量 0 | | 上涨 15 | | 最高价 46528.78 市盈率 | | 最低价 46276.39 市净率 9.22 今年来 9.16% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | 叠加 46528.78 0.28% -0.28% ...

Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) tanked at open on Wednesday, plunging almost 2% to $184 as the trading day began amid heightened market volatility and broader tech sector fluctuations. ...

Core Viewpoint - The foundation for the current bull market remains solid, supported by growing earnings and favorable fiscal and monetary policies [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Earnings are growing by double digits, with analysts increasing their expectations for future earnings [2]. - Historically, the US has not experienced a recession when earnings are growing year-over-year, indicating a positive outlook despite potential risks [3]. Market Reactions - The market has shown limited reaction to potential government shutdowns, with past shutdowns often resulting in GDP expansion and S&P 500 gains [4][5]. - Consumer spending remains strong, contributing to a positive market outlook as the seasonally favorable period approaches [6]. Employment Trends - Unemployment rates are at 4.3%, and while claims have increased, companies are not significantly laying off workers, suggesting stability in the labor market [8]. Potential Risks - The upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs could pose a market risk if found illegal, potentially impacting long-term bond yields and overall market stability [10][11]. - The current trade policy environment may induce market volatility depending on the Supreme Court's ruling [12].

Core Insights - Many retirees, particularly baby boomers, face unexpected challenges that can deplete their portfolios faster than anticipated, undermining traditional withdrawal strategies like the 4% rule [2][5] Group 1: Economic Factors - Rising inflation can significantly impact retirement savings, as costs may increase beyond the 4% withdrawal rule, leading to potential erosion of retirement funds [3] - Market volatility poses risks, especially if a market correction occurs just before or shortly after retirement, which can severely affect portfolio values [4][5] - The S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of 19.4% in 2022, highlighting the unpredictability of market performance and the challenges posed by high inflation and interest rate hikes [5] Group 2: Retirement Planning Strategies - To mitigate risks associated with inflation and market volatility, retirees may consider extending their working years or engaging in low-stress side hustles to bolster their income [3] - Investing in mature dividend-paying companies can provide more stability during market corrections compared to high-growth small-cap stocks, offering a safer investment strategy for retirees [6] Group 3: Long-Term Care Considerations - As individuals age, the need for long-term care services can arise, often leading to significant financial burdens, with costs potentially exceeding $10,000 per month [7][8] - Many retirees may find themselves needing assisted living arrangements if family support is unavailable, further complicating their financial planning [7]