未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不可及。 1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to achieve profitability in Q4 2024, with significant revenue growth and improved sales performance, driven by new model launches and organizational reforms [2][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 40.87 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, surpassing the previous year's revenue of 30.68 billion yuan by over 10 billion yuan [2]. - The company sold a total of 190,000 vehicles in 2024, with Q4 sales reaching 91,500 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96.6%, accounting for nearly 50% of the annual sales [3]. - The net loss for 2024 was 5.79 billion yuan, significantly reduced from a loss of 10.38 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year improvement of 44.2% [5]. Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The successful launch of the MONA M03 and P7+ models contributed significantly to sales growth, with both models achieving over 10,000 deliveries in consecutive months [4]. - Xiaopeng Motors plans to introduce three new models and four major updated models in 2025, aiming for a sales target of 350,000 units, effectively doubling the previous year's sales [15][16]. - The company is focusing on a pricing strategy that emphasizes value reconstruction rather than simple discounts, with a 34% total component upgrade for the new G6 model [16]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Cost Management - Organizational changes and supply chain reforms have led to a 15% reduction in costs, with over 99% of battery procurement coming from second-tier suppliers [6]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.3%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing cost management efforts [6]. - Xiaopeng Motors is establishing a positive feedback loop between pricing advantages and supplier confidence, as suppliers are increasingly optimistic about the company's sales performance [9][10]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company invested 6.457 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, up from 5.277 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a commitment to technological development [10]. - Xiaopeng Motors is on track to produce its self-developed Turing chip, which is expected to enhance cost efficiency and product optimization in the long term [12]. - The company aims to achieve L3-level autonomous driving capabilities by the second half of 2025, with plans for L4 low-speed autonomous vehicles by 2026 [18][19]. Group 5: International Expansion - Xiaopeng Motors aims to double its overseas sales in 2025, targeting over 40,000 units, following a successful 2024 with over 20,000 units sold internationally [17]. - The company plans to establish over 300 sales and service outlets globally by the end of 2025, significantly increasing its international presence [17].