Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices rebounded at the beginning of the year due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream players. After the holiday, new - energy vehicle terminal sales declined, lithium salt production climbed rapidly, inventory accumulated, and prices dropped. In June, production contracted, material factories restocked, and policies released positive expectations, leading to a price rebound [3]. - In the second half of the year, the fundamental situation of supply - demand weakness remains unchanged, and prices are expected to continue to decline under the logic of oversupply. However, the advantage of hedging for lithium salt plants disappears, the pace of upstream capacity clearance is expected to accelerate, and there may be frequent disruptions on the supply side. The domestic macro - environment has not improved significantly, and the resilience of power terminal consumption is questionable. The heat of the energy - storage market may continue in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policy risks. Overall, prices may continue to decline, but the downward path may not be smooth [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward based on fundamental logic, with staged rebounds driven by market expectations of marginal fundamental corrections. By May 31, the maximum decline of the 09 contract in the first half of the year was about 25.26% [8]. - Before the Spring Festival, pre - holiday restocking pushed up prices. After the holiday, weak terminal consumption and increased production led to price drops. In March, trade barriers intensified the decline. In May, trade negotiations led to a small rebound, followed by another decline. In June, factors such as factory shutdowns, restocking by downstream players, and short - term profit - taking by short - sellers led to a price rebound [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost Center Moves Down, Lithium Resource Exploration at Home and Abroad Accelerates - Lithium prices and associated ore prices declined, with different rates. Imported lithium spodumene concentrate prices fell from $747/ton at the beginning of the year to $644/ton on June 30, a decline of about 13.79%. Lithium mica prices declined more slowly, from 1,310 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.82% [11]. - Lithium ore imports remained high, and import channels became more diversified. From January to May, the total import volume of lithium concentrate was 291.94 tons, with an increasing trend. Australia was still the main source, accounting for about 53.1%, while African imports increased, accounting for about 36.57% [12]. - Australian mines have abundant resources, but the incremental expectation is slowing. In the first quarter of 2025, the total production of lithium concentrate was about 800,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.98%. The weighted average cost decreased from $399.41/ton in Q4 2024 to $359.66/ton [13]. - African mines have limited incremental production this year but strong potential in the long term. Some mines are already at full - capacity production, and some new projects are in the process of ramping up production [14]. - Domestic resources are on the verge of development. Some domestic mines have started production or obtained mining licenses, and technological innovation has reduced the cost of extracting lithium from mica [14]. 2.2 Capacity Growth Slows, Supply Clearance Expected to Accelerate - Lithium salt capacity growth slowed down. From the beginning of the year to May, capacity increased from 1.963 million tons to 2.1486 million tons, an increase of about 9.45%, much lower than the 19.22% growth rate in the second half of 2024. Some projects have stopped construction [17]. - By June 27, the total production of lithium carbonate was about 409,300 tons. Production in Jiangxi and Hunan, mainly from mica - based lithium extraction, increased significantly, while production in Sichuan, mainly from spodumene - based extraction, was relatively stable. Salt - lake lithium extraction in Qinghai and Xinjiang also increased [17]. - From January to May 2025, lithium carbonate imports were 100,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 15.32%. Chile was the main source, accounting for about 66.52%. Some overseas salt - lake projects are ramping up production, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt is expected to increase [20]. - Some domestic companies have capacity expansion or new - project plans. In the future, the clearance of high - cost capacity is expected to accelerate, but supply disruptions may occur frequently [21]. 2.3 Positive Electrode Material Market Expected to be Stable - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Prices declined. Power - type lithium iron phosphate prices dropped from 35,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 32,300 yuan/ton on June 30, a decline of about 9.01%. Energy - storage type prices dropped from 33,250 yuan/ton to 31,100 yuan/ton, a decline of about 6.46%. Capacity growth slowed down, but production and operating rates increased slightly. New capacity is shifting towards high - compaction products [28]. - **Ternary Cathode Materials**: Prices fluctuated. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 130,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 138,400 yuan/ton on June 30, an increase of about 6.38%. The price of 8 - series materials increased slightly by about 0.14%. The increase in cobalt prices drove up the cost. Capacity growth was slightly positive, and production and operating rates were higher than last year. New capacity is moving towards high - nickel ternary materials [29][30]. 2.4 Terminal Consumption Resilience Questionable, Policies Force Car Manufacturers to Reduce Production Schedules - **Domestic Market**: From January to May, new - energy vehicle production was about 5.701 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 45%, and sales were about 5.606 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 44%. New - replacement subsidies drove consumption, accounting for about 30.49% of total sales in the first half of the year. However, if subsidies are excluded, 2025 consumption is similar to 2024. In the future, consumer willingness may be limited, and policies may pressure car manufacturers' cash flows and production schedules [32][33]. - **Overseas Market**: In Europe, from January to April, new - energy vehicle sales were about 1.1312 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 23.32%. In the US, from January to May, sales were about 647,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 8.87%, and the market penetration rate declined. In the future, European carbon - emission policies may slow down the electrification process, and US tax - incentive policies may change [34]. 2.5 Warehouse Receipt Inventory May Be a Drag, No Industry - Driven De - stocking Expected - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate inventory increased from 61,623 tons at the beginning of the year to 110,305 tons on June 27. Market inventory increased more significantly than factory inventory, indicating increased hedging demand during price declines. In the second half of the year, supply - demand growth is expected to slow down, and the decline in warehouse receipts may reduce inventory, but there is no expectation of industry - driven de - stocking [38]. 3. Conclusion - **Cost and Supply**: Lithium ore resources are abundant, and low - cost Australian mines have an advantage. Overseas and domestic exploration is progressing well. Supply oversupply is expected to continue, but capacity clearance may accelerate, and supply disruptions may occur frequently [41]. - **Consumption**: The resilience of power - terminal consumption is questionable, and the impact of growth - stabilization policies needs to be observed. The energy - storage market may remain hot in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policies. Overall, prices are expected to decline under the logic of oversupply, but the downward path may not be smooth [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the lithium battery industry, including significant orders, market trends, and price fluctuations in key materials such as lithium carbonate, ternary materials, and iron phosphate. Industry Highlights - Anker Innovations has terminated its partnership with Amperes due to recent power bank recalls and has established a new order with CATL for 45 million battery cells over three years [3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its temporary ban on cobalt exports for three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels [4] - The upcoming Honor Magic V5 smartphone will feature a 6100 mAh silicon battery with 25% silicon content, promising improved performance and longer battery life compared to its predecessor [5] Lithium Battery Material Market 1. Lithium Carbonate - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have shown slight rebounds, with stable prices around 58,000 RMB/ton. However, the overall trend suggests potential declines due to supply-demand imbalances [8][9] 2. Ternary Materials - Strong demand for nickel materials was noted in June, with some manufacturers experiencing panic buying. Prices for ternary materials remain stable following the extension of cobalt export bans [10][11] 3. Iron Phosphate - The iron phosphate market remains stable, with a slight decrease in expected sales volume for June. The fourth-generation products are actively being promoted [12][14] 4. Anode Materials - Anode material prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions, impacting profit margins for manufacturers. Demand remains weak with no significant increases expected in the short term [15][17] 5. Separators - Separator production is expected to maintain levels from June, with price reductions from lower-tier manufacturers to boost sales. A new separator production facility in Malaysia is set to enhance capacity [18] 6. Electrolytes - Electrolyte shipments did not show significant growth in June, with some manufacturers experiencing slight increases. Prices remain stable, with low operating rates affecting profitability [19][20] Downstream Market 1. Batteries - Domestic battery manufacturers are experiencing varied order volumes, with significant contributions from the new energy commercial vehicle sector. The energy storage market remains optimistic [20][21] 2. Vehicle Sales - Passenger vehicle sales reached 548,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.58%. New energy vehicle sales were 283,000 units, up 32.68% year-on-year [23] 3. Energy Storage - The energy storage market continues to thrive, with significant projects underway both domestically and internationally. Recent procurement projects have set new low prices for lithium iron phosphate battery systems [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke's fourth - round price cut has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 220 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 240 yuan/ton. Steel is in the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills' production enthusiasm is good, and iron - molten output has slightly rebounded. Coke supply is tending to be loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate. [6] - For coking coal, due to stricter safety inspections and environmental supervision in some coal mines in Shanxi, supply has tightened marginally. Coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The coking coal spot market is running steadily, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 closed at 1424.0, down 24.5; J2605 closed at 1450.0, down 32.0. [2] - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 closed at 843.5, down 16.0; JM2605 closed at 866.0, down 13.5. [2] - **Spot Market**: Coke's邢台出厂价is 1560 yuan/ton with no change; coking coal's澳洲低挥发is 868 yuan/ton, down 1. [2] - **Coking Profit**: 01盘面利润is 251.7 yuan/ton, down 8.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [2] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' iron - molten daily output is 241.6, up 0.57 (0.24% month - on - month). The daily output of all - sample independent coking plants is 65.0, down 0.34 (- 0.52% month - on - month). [2] - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: 110 coal - washing plants' refined coal daily output is 47.8, down 3.5 (6.70% month - on - month). The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal is 798.1, down 2.3 (- 0.29% month - on - month). [2] 3.3 Important News - In May 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 158.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. [4] - On June 24, the main port iron ore transactions in China were 81.30 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.2%; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 9.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%. [5] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Coke: With the fourth - round price cut implemented, steel is in the off - season, and coke supply is loose. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate. [6] - Coking Coal: Supply has tightened marginally, prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The spot market is stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [6]

Group 1 - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced the end of a 12-day war initiated by Israel, urging institutions to focus on reconstruction efforts [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is in a position to consider policy adjustments based on upcoming economic data, with potential for early interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - U.S. stock markets saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new closing high since early March [3][4] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Intel rising over 6% and Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon each gaining over 2% [3][4] - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant rally, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 3.31%, marking the largest single-day gain since May 13 [3][4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintained an overweight recommendation on Chinese stocks, projecting a target of 4600 for the CSI 300 index, implying about a 10% upside [7] - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to boost consumption, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program [6] Group 4 - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a record $450.2 billion in Q1, widening from $312 billion in the previous quarter [17] - Guangdong province is accelerating initiatives for trade-in programs for various consumer goods, including automobiles and home appliances [18] Group 5 - The price of lemons has skyrocketed by 300% due to extreme weather and increased costs in international trade, leading some beverage shops to temporarily remove lemon drinks from their menus [20] - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans for a nationwide campaign to promote new energy vehicle consumption in 2025 [21] Group 6 - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 11 imported games and 147 domestic games in June, with a total of 55 imported games approved this year [10] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began selling shares of Nvidia, with a total of 100,000 shares sold for nearly $14.5 million [11]

Group 1 - Six departments in China have introduced 19 measures to enhance financial support for consumption, focusing on improving residents' consumption capacity and optimizing credit products for eligible sectors [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the organization of a "New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" in 2025, promoting vehicle trade-in policies and enhancing the availability of suitable new energy models in rural areas [1] - The draft amendment to the Food Safety Law was presented for review, focusing on enhancing regulation of liquid food transport and stricter penalties for violations [1] - The draft Medical Security Law was introduced, aiming to establish a comprehensive medical security service system and improve direct settlement mechanisms for medical expenses [1] - The World Economic Forum's Summer Davos Forum commenced in Tianjin, indicating a strong commitment to global economic cooperation despite challenges [1] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank elected a new president, Zhao Jiayi, who has extensive experience in international financial cooperation [1] - JD Logistics announced the recruitment of full-time delivery personnel to support its expanding food delivery business, enhancing operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities has been approved to issue up to 10 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [4] - Daikin Heavy Industries plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Jinjiang Hotels received preliminary approval from the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for its H-share issuance plan [4] - Changchuan Technology intends to raise no more than 3.132 billion yuan through a private placement [4] - Xinyangfeng plans to invest 1.15 billion yuan in a new specialized fertilizer project [4] - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 25%-50% for the first half of the year [4] - Guangda Special Materials anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 367.51% for the first half of the year [4]

Domestic News - The central bank will research and formulate a new stage financial technology development plan, and issue policy documents to deepen the application of financial technology to promote the digital and intelligent transformation of finance [3]. International News - Trump believes both Israel and Iran have violated the ceasefire agreement but stated that there will be no consequences for these violations. He also expressed that he does not wish for a regime change in Iran [4]. - Oil price increases since Israel's attack on Iran on June 13 have been completely erased [4]. - U.S. media reported that preliminary intelligence assessments indicate that strikes against Iran did not destroy nuclear facilities, which the White House denied [4]. - After a conversation between U.S. and Israeli leaders, Israel has halted further military strikes against Iran [4]. - The Iranian president stated that Iran is prepared to engage in dialogue at the negotiation table [4]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that current policies are in a favorable position, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before considering interest rate adjustments. Most officials believe a rate cut later this year is appropriate [4]. - Bostic stated there is currently no need for a rate cut, expecting a 25 basis point cut later this year [4]. - Harker mentioned there is no urgent reason to cut rates, and monetary policy may remain unchanged for a considerable time [4]. - Kashkari noted that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode due to tariff uncertainties [4]. - Williams indicated that tariffs and uncertainties will lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year [4]. - Collins emphasized that a moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is necessary [4]. - Bullard stated that monetary policy is in a favorable position, and the Federal Reserve will observe how the economic situation develops [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued 19 measures to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, focusing on six key areas including enhancing consumer capacity and optimizing the consumption environment [1] - Guangdong province is prioritizing foreign trade enterprises to help them manage inventory, explore markets, and reduce costs through coordinated policies and resources [1][3] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security clarified that personal pension investment income is subject to a 3% individual income tax upon withdrawal, without distinction between principal and investment income [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced the organization of a 2025 campaign to promote new energy vehicle consumption in rural areas, emphasizing the construction of parking lots, charging stations, and after-sales service points [2] - A draft amendment to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law was submitted for review, aiming to address data rights violations and malicious trading practices [2] - The food safety law amendment was presented for the first time, focusing on enhancing regulation of liquid food transport and registering infant formula liquid milk [2] Group 3 - The Iranian military denied launching missiles at Israel, countering claims made by Israeli officials regarding violations of a ceasefire agreement [5] - The European Central Bank's official indicated potential for further policy easing if current inflation expectations remain moderate [5] - Canada and the European Union signed a defense and security agreement to enhance cooperation in defense industrial collaboration and crisis management [5] Group 4 - The latest market data shows positive movements in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.68% [4] - The onshore RMB depreciated slightly by 9 points, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 36 points [4] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 3.09% and 3.23%, respectively, indicating a downward trend in oil markets [4]

今天，A股三大指数集体走强，上证指数站上3400点关口。截至收盘，上证指数、深证成指分别上涨 1.15%、1.68%，创业板指数上涨2.30%。 自昨天小波段见底以来，上证指数才反弹两天，在时间上和上述三个小波段差距甚大。因此，达哥认 为，大盘的反弹行情还没有结束，同时整个反弹周期也还没有结束。 今天整个市场放量近3000亿元，这意味着上证指数还有冲刺3月高点的动能。 板块方面，保险、证券两大板块指数今天的涨幅分别为3.19%、2.60%，分别位居行业板块涨幅榜的第 二、第七位。银行板块继续走高，板块指数上涨0.68%。 综上，无论是反弹时间，还是上方空间，上证指数都还有空间，因此，继续按照轻指数、重板块个股的 思路来进行操作。 关于A股未来两年的行情，最近半年多以来，达哥从政策、资金、技术分析等角度分享得比较多，用四 个字总结就是：坚决看多。 沪深两市成交额达到14146亿元，较昨日大幅放量2920亿元。整个市场有4771只个股上涨，578只个股下 跌，个股涨跌幅的中位数为上涨1.89%。 上周末，市场对以伊冲突担心之时，达哥明确指出，不用忧虑，大盘至少会走出类似于2024年三四月份 的横盘震荡态势。从本周 ...

金十数据6月24日讯，商务部办公厅发布组织开展2025年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季活动的通知。各地 要广泛动员社会力量参与新能源汽车消费季活动，支持独立第三方二手车信息查询平台提升运营质效， 加强新能源在用车检测平台推广应用，扩大新能源二手车交易。加快县乡地区新能源汽车停车场、充电 桩、售后服务站点、报废汽车回收服务网点等设施建设，便利群众交旧换新，解决日常用车后顾之忧； 积极探索依托现有加油站，打造一批集车辆销售维保、停车补能、餐饮住宿等功能于一体的乡镇汽车驿 站。 商务部：加强新能源在用车检测平台推广应用，扩大新能源二手车交易 ...

1-5月新能源汽车销量达560.8万辆，同比增长44% 新能源车靠啥"跑"出这个增速？ 6月11日，中国汽车工业协会发布的数据显示，今年1-5月，汽车产销分别完成1282.6万辆和1274.8万 辆，同比分别增长12.7%和10.9%。其中，新能源汽车产销累计完成569.9万辆和560.8万辆，同比分别增 长45.2%和44%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的44%。 业内人士分析，今年以来，"两新"政策加力扩围，持续显效，叠加车企新品投放、多地车展促销等利好 因素，助力汽车市场消费活力加速释放。未来需从优化充电基建、丰富适配车型、创新灵活金融服务、 强化售后网络覆盖四方面发力，构建汽车消费需求持续释放的长效机制。 车市掀起消费热浪 今年4月，在北京顺义区工作的李华完成了一次重要的出行设备升级--将陪伴自己多年的燃油车，置换 成一辆国产纯电动SUV。提车后，李华对新能源汽车也有了不一样的认识。 李华告诉记者，为节约开支，他充分利用夜班时段在单位充电，电费为每千瓦时0.83元，以车辆百公里 耗电15千瓦时计算，每公里用电成本约为0.12元。相比此前燃油车每公里近1元的油耗支出，新能源车 为他节省了大量出行 ...