Group 1 - The German IFO Business Climate Index for June is set to be released shortly [1]

Group 1 - The Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to take place [1] - NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit [1] - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for June will be released at 16:00 [3] Group 2 - The UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations for June will be announced at 18:00 [4] - The US current account for Q1 and Canada's CPI for May will be reported at 20:30 [5] - The US FHFA House Price Index for April and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index for April will be released at 21:00 [6] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech at 21:00 [6] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss monetary policy at 21:15 [7] - The US Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June will be published at 22:00 [8] Group 4 - Fed Chair Powell will present the semi-annual monetary policy report at 22:00 [8] - Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee meeting at 22:00 [8] - Fed's Harker will participate in a panel discussion at 22:15 [9] Group 5 - Fed's Williams will speak the following day at 00:30 [10] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending June 20 will be released at 04:30 [11]

Group 1 - The core issue in the financing leasing industry is the complexity of asset disposal, which is significantly higher than traditional credit assets due to the dual legal attributes of property rights and debt rights [2] - Current industry faces four main asset disposal challenges: inability to locate assets, high costs of removal, difficulty in selling, and price suppression in the buyer's market [3][4] - Specific examples highlight the challenges, such as a solar energy company losing 320 million yuan worth of equipment due to improper asset tracking and the inability to recover costs from dismantling specialized equipment [3][5] Group 2 - The root causes of these issues can be analyzed from subjective and objective perspectives, including a deviation from business logic and market constraints [5][6] - Subjective reasons include a focus on scale expansion over the intrinsic properties of leased assets, leading to poor asset selection [5] - Objective pain points involve market and technical limitations, where some leasing companies accept non-disposable assets due to industry norms, resulting in assets becoming "paper rights" [6] Group 3 - Strategies for asset disposal should shift from passive responses to proactive planning, utilizing macroeconomic indicators to guide decisions [7] - A classification matrix for asset management is proposed, categorizing assets into high liquidity, strong cyclical, and specialized equipment, each with tailored disposal strategies [7] - The approach should evolve from single-line asset management to a comprehensive strategy that integrates various asset control measures [8] Group 4 - Future trends in asset disposal include leveraging high-tech solutions for asset tracking and monitoring, such as AI-assisted due diligence and real-time GPS monitoring [10][11] - Building cross-industry ecological alliances is essential for enhancing asset disposal efficiency and mitigating risks through resource integration [12] - The essence of financing leasing asset disposal is to transform risk exposure into value opportunities, emphasizing the need for a full value chain capability from precise pricing to dynamic monitoring and diversified exit strategies [13]

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new round of adjustment window [1] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30 [1] Group 2 - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report at 16:00 [1] - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will also be released at 17:00 [1] Group 3 - The U.S. will report May retail sales month-on-month and May import price index month-on-month at 20:30 [1] - U.S. industrial production month-on-month for May will be reported at 21:15 [1] - The NAHB housing market index for June and April business inventories month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 4 - The Bank of Canada will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting the next day [1] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 13 will be reported at 04:30 the next day [1]

经济周周看：本周经济景总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 6 月 14 日）为 5.6%，与上周修订值 5.6%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看，消费回暖，固投偏弱，出口高频高位震荡。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期 ...

在电商经营类CRPI的各项分指数中，电商实物总销售额指数为51.8%，较上月上升1.2个百分点，本 次"6.18"线上促销从5月中旬开启预热将持续至6月下旬，促销活动时间长且力度为上半年之最，拉动电 商经营类企业销售预期增长。 电商在线总商品数指数为51.3%，较上月小幅下降0.7个百分点，表明本月电商经营类企业备货意愿保持 稳定。电商客单价水平指数为49.5%，较上月小幅上升0.6个百分点，分析认为，电商客单价水平连续两 个月上升，呈现线上积极促销趋势。 中国商业联合会最新数据显示，6月中国零售业景气指数(CR？PI)为50.1%，较上月小幅下降0.4个百分 点，连续10个月维持在扩张区间运行。CRPI是反映当期零售业经营预期变化情况的综合指数。分析认 为，受"6.18"线上促销活动和以旧换新政策等因素影响，线上零售增幅明显扩大，本月消费市场呈现线 上线下（300959）结构性转移特征。综合景气指数小幅回落，表明消费能力尚需提升。 从行业分类看，6月零售业三大分类指数出现分化。商品经营类指数为49.5%，较上月下降0.9个百分 点；租赁经营类指数为51.3%，较上月小幅下降0.5个百分点；电商经营类指数为5 ...

其中大型制造业企业指数骤降至-4.8，同样创五个季度新低，汽车、零部件和钢铁行业跌幅尤为显著。非制造业指数报-0.5，自2022年三季度以来首现负 值，零售与通信行业构成主要拖累。 最新数据凸显日本企业对美国贸易政策持续不确定性的担忧加剧。特朗普3月先对钢铝征收25%关税，近期又将税率提至50%。4月起汽车面临25%关税，其 他所有商品统一加征10%关税。若未能达成贸易协议，7月初日本商品关税将回调至24%。 数据显示受美国加税影响最直接的行业景气度暴跌。汽车制造商及零部件供应商指数从上季度的8.8骤降至-16.1，钢铁企业指数从0暴跌至-29.1。 尽管日本央行行长植田和男本周重申"将在条件允许时推进加息"，但低迷数据可能令政策审议更趋谨慎。市场普遍预期央行6月17日政策会议将维持基准利 率不变，焦点转向国债购买计划更新。 智通财经APP获悉，日本大型企业景气指数一年多来首次转悲观，特朗普全面加关税冲击关键产业，这一动向可能使日本央行的政策路径复杂化。 财务省周四公布的调查显示，4-6月大型企业景气动向指数降至-1.9，自2024年一季度以来首次跌入负值区间。该指标为负意味着认为经营环境恶化的企业多 于改善 ...

Core Insights - The monthly prosperity index for China's lead-zinc industry in May is reported at 35.4, an increase of 4.4 points from April, indicating a stabilization and recovery trend within the "normal" range [1][3] - The leading index reached 76.7, up 3.3 points from April, marking a new high for 2024, suggesting a stable development foundation for the lead-zinc industry [1][7] Industry Performance Indicators - The lead-zinc market price index decreased by 8.8 points in May compared to April, influenced by international market speculation and slow consumer recovery, although terminal replenishment demand is gradually starting [8] - The M2 money supply index increased to 55.2, up 2.7 points from April, indicating stable growth without significant fluctuations, supporting the lead-zinc industry's development [8] - The production index for lead-acid batteries rose significantly by 23.6 points in May, driven by increased demand in electric vehicles and backup power sectors as the traditional consumption peak season approaches [8] - The galvanized sheet production index remained stable, reflecting consistent demand from downstream industries, with infrastructure projects boosting zinc usage despite the sluggish real estate sector [8] - The lead-zinc ore import index rose to 139.1, up 28.6 points year-on-year, as domestic smelters increased overseas procurement to address raw material shortages [8] - Fixed asset investment index increased by 12.3 points in May, ending a two-month decline, as companies ramped up investments in environmental management and smart upgrades [9] - The production index slightly declined by 18.1 points, attributed to seasonal maintenance in some lead-zinc mines, but smelting remained stable, meeting domestic consumption needs [9] - The main business revenue index increased by 16.7 points, indicating significant improvement in the overall revenue situation of the lead-zinc industry, while the profit total index rose by 1.4 points, reflecting effective cost control and product structure optimization [9] Future Outlook - With ongoing national economic growth policies, the lead-zinc industry prosperity index is expected to continue operating within the "normal" range in Q2 2025, indicating a potential mild recovery [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the restaurant industry, with a significant increase in the national restaurant prosperity index from 94.7 in April to 104.2 in May 2025, reflecting a 10% month-on-month growth [7][8]. Core Insights - The restaurant industry is experiencing a robust recovery driven by holiday consumption, with increased foot traffic and sales during May due to various celebrations [6][7]. - New product launches are thriving, particularly in Western fast food and tea beverages, showcasing regional flavors and innovative ingredients [12][22]. - The expansion of restaurant brands is notable, with both domestic growth and international market entries being actively pursued [41][45]. - Investment activities are stabilizing, with several financing events and IPOs occurring in the restaurant sector, indicating a healthy investment climate [48][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Industry Prosperity Index - The national restaurant prosperity index rose to 104.2 in May 2025, a 10% increase from April, driven by holiday spending and seasonal demand [7][8][9]. 2. New Product Launches - In May, 45 Western fast food brands launched 121 new products, an 8% increase from the previous month, with a focus on regional flavors [13][14]. - The tea beverage sector saw 64 brands introduce 242 new products, with fruit tea leading the market and a notable increase in health-oriented ingredients [22][23]. - The bakery segment introduced 237 new products, with cakes being the most popular category, driven by Mother's Day and the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [31][32]. 3. Opening Situations - Domestic brands are actively expanding, with notable openings such as Luckin Coffee's Brazilian coffee-themed store and Haidilao's first crispy fish-themed restaurant [45][46]. - International expansions include the opening of tea brands in Europe and Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move towards global markets [45][46]. 4. Investment, Mergers, and IPOs - The report recorded four financing events in May, with a focus on downstream restaurant brands, and three companies indicating IPO plans [48][49]. - Notable IPOs include the successful listing of沪上阿姨 and海天味业, highlighting the growing interest in the restaurant sector [52][54]. 5. Major Events in the Restaurant Industry - Key developments include McDonald's stable performance in China, the launch of new themed stores by various brands, and strategic partnerships aimed at expanding market reach [57][61]. - Regulatory updates are also noted, with new legislation aimed at enhancing food safety and protecting traditional dining cultures [61]. 6. Red Restaurant Index Top 100 - The top three brands in the Red Restaurant Index for May 2025 are Haidilao, KFC (China), and Luckin Coffee, reflecting their strong market positions [66][70].

中新社北京6月6日电 中国商业联合会6日发布数据显示，6月份，中国零售业景气指数(CRPI)为50.1%， 较上月小幅下降0.4个百分点，连续10个月维持在扩张区间运行。 数据显示，商品经营类景气指数为49.5%，成为影响综合指数下行的主要因素。分析认为，受"618"线上 促销活动和"以旧换新"政策等因素影响，线上零售增幅明显扩大，本月消费市场呈现线上线下结构性转 移特征。综合景气指数小幅回落，表明消费能力尚需提升。 CRPI是反映当期零售业经营预期变化情况的综合指数。从行业分类看，6月零售业三大分类指数出现分 化。商品经营类指数为49.5%，较上月下降0.9个百分点。分析认为，6月份气温开始升高，线下商品零 售逐渐进入经营淡季，叠加"618"线上促销力度加大对线下商品零售产生分流效应，商品经营类企业预 期明显变弱。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 该联合会分析认为，CRPI三个分指数对比显示，6月份线上线下商品零售出现明显分化，电商经营类指 数明显上升，受"618"促销活动预期影响，线上商品经营预期有所改善。数据显示，6月租赁经营类景气 指数受平均单店租金收入、商铺出租率和经营场所增减分指数影响持续下行，但仍维持 ...