油脂日报 | 2025-07-17 供需结构稳定，油脂震荡运行 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8722.00元/吨，环比变化+14元，幅度+0.16%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8042.00 元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.37%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9470.00元/吨，环比变化+66.00元，幅度+0.70%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.57%，现货基差P09+68.00，环比变 化+36.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8200.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.49%，现货基差Y09+158.00， 环比变化+10.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9590.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.74%，现货基差 OI09+120.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：俄罗斯农业咨询机构Sovecon表示，已将2025年谷物总产量预测上调至1.305亿吨，较此前预期 的1.295亿吨有所增加。Sovecon表示，俄罗斯小麦产量预测已从此前预期的 ...

2025 年 7 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 SEA：印度 6 月棕榈油进口量环比激增 60%至 955683 吨，豆油进口量下降 9.8%至 359504 吨，葵花籽 油进口量增长 17.8%至 216141 吨。印度 6 月植物油进口总量为 1549825 吨，较 5 月的 1187068 吨增长 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,748 | 0.76% | 8,788 | 0.46% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,994 | 0.10% | 8,020 | 0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,424 | -0.16% | 9,474 | 0.53% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,232 | 1.37% | 4,228 | -0.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: It is in a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or continuous poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is in the seasonally short - allocated period, with the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the main approach. The price pressure still has room and time to release due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. However, if the crude oil price center rises later, the weak fundamentals will not lead to much downward space. There are potential long - term positives in production and demand, and there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels at the end of the third quarter [2][6]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is also in a state of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply of soybean oil. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **Last Week's View and Logic** - **Palm Oil**: Its fundamental situation changed little, mainly following the fluctuations of crude oil and US soybean oil under the influence of the sentiment of the US spending bill. The 09 contract of palm oil rose 1.15% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The weak current - situation trading of domestic soybean oil continued. When US soybeans and crude oil rose together, soybean oil was not significantly driven, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed. The 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.72% last week [1]. **This Week's View and Logic** - **Palm Oil**: The market lacks clear trading contradictions. It shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern following crude oil and US soybean oil. The continuous increase in Malaysia's production from June to August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July to August may be lower than that of the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the inventory - reduction expectation in Malaysia in June is very small. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils and fruit bunches is high, and the sentiment of traders is relatively positive. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction of at least 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply in the 25/26 period, which will drive the upward movement of the international oil market. However, it has limited improvement on the recent fundamentals of palm oil. There are different views on Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If the good yield in Malaysia and Indonesia continues from July to August, there will be a large inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If the crude oil price center rises, the downward space of palm oil will be limited [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. **Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts** - **Prices and Price Changes**: The main - continuous contract of palm oil closed at 8,472 yuan/ton, up 1.15%; the main - continuous contract of soybean oil closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 1.49%. The main - continuous contract of Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,062 ringgit/ton, up 1.25%, and the main - continuous contract of CBOT soybean oil closed at 54.54 cents/pound, up 3.65% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of palm oil was 2,596,094 lots, with a decrease of 406,426 lots; the open interest was 451,187 lots, with an increase of 679 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of soybean oil was 3,002,520 lots, with a decrease of 268,035 lots; the open interest was 544,238 lots, with a decrease of 20,407 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil was 4,101,631 lots, with a decrease of 195,915 lots; the open interest was 323,968 lots, with an increase of 4,565 lots [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil for the 09 contract was 1,663 yuan/ton, up 13.59%; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil for the 09 contract was - 528 yuan/ton, down 41.18%. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 14 yuan/ton, down 68.18%; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 71 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 670 lots, an increase of 200 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22,977 lots, an increase of 4,095 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 805 lots, an increase of 705 lots [8]. **Core Fundamental Data of Oils** - **Palm Oil in Producing Areas**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month in June, and the inventory remained flat. In Indonesia, the inventory level is not expected to rise further after the second quarter, and the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia has increased. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 30 was 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase compared with the same period last month [10][12]. - **Demand - Side Data**: India's palm oil import profit declined, and the profit of sunflower oil was significantly better. The CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India rebounded rapidly. The EU's cumulative import of palm oil decreased by 270,000 tons in 2025, and the cumulative import of four major oils decreased by 540,000 tons [12][13]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (in South China) for the 09 contract was 20, and the basis of soybean oil (in Jiangsu) declined [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations ease and have a macro-level impact on the market [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [6]. - Soybean oil inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Soybean meal inventory: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [10]. - Oil mill soybean crushing: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [12]. - Palm oil inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Canola oil inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of canola oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Rapeseed inventory: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [22]. - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [24]. Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [14]. Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2]. - Palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3]. - Canola oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4]. Recent利多利空 Analysis -利多 factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. -利空 factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

油脂日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 银河期货油脂日报 2025/6/25 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 2509收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7984 | 34 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8224 | | | | 8234 | 8184 | | 250 | 0 240 | 0 | 200 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8344 | 18 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 8584 | 8644 | | 220 | 0 240 | 0 | 300 | -20 | | 菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the price of crude oil may remain strong in the new week. The trading of U.S. biodiesel continues, and external disturbances outweigh the industrial fundamentals, leading to a short - term bullish trend in both domestic and foreign oils and fats. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation. The September spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has returned above 1,200, and the previous position for widening the spread should be held cautiously. Attention should also be paid to the January soybean contract. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Points - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days of June, and production decreased by 4% in the first half - month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 43.3% month - on - month in May. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, the U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory was 1.373 billion pounds. In China, the imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 336,000 tons respectively. Last week, the spot trading of soybean oil was good, and downstream palm oil buyers restocked. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 850,000 tons and 410,000 tons respectively. [7] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the policy of U.S. biodiesel is becoming clearer, continuously disturbing the crude oil and oils and fats markets. The POGO spread has continued to decline. [12][13] - **U.S. Soybeans**: The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than expected. The NOPA's U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory in May was at a multi - year low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans rose to 100 cents per bushel. [12] - **Palm Oil**: In the first half - month of June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days. Indonesia's palm oil exports continued to increase in May. India lowered the basic import tax on crude edible oils and cancelled some palm oil orders for July - September. [12] - **Imports and Crushing**: China imported 1.3918 million tons of soybeans in May, with a cumulative import of 3.7108 million tons from January to May, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 335,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 8.4%, - 20.3%, and - 26.12%. The soybean crushing rate continued to rise, and the soybean inventory in oil mills stopped increasing. The rapeseed crushing rate was low, and the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continued to decline. [12] - **Inventory**: As of mid - June, the soybean oil inventory increased for 7 consecutive weeks to 850,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 810,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month; the palm oil inventory increased slightly to 410,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils and fats increased to 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.66 million tons in the same period last year. [12] - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats rose. As of June 20, the price of soybean oil was 8,400 yuan/ton, a 4.5% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,863 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,936 yuan/ton, a 4.22% increase. [12] - **Demand**: Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean and rapeseed oils increased, and palm oil was purchased for rigid demand. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 138,200 tons, compared with 106,600 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2,308 tons, compared with 12,965 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 47,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous week. [12] 3.4 Spread Tracking No detailed content provided other than the section title.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but there is a risk of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8084 with a rise of 112; palm oil was 8518 with a rise of 72; and rapeseed oil was 9703 with a rise of 120. The basis of different oils in various regions showed different changes, such as the basis of soybean oil in Tianjin decreased by 10 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil was 70 with a rise of 12, palm oil was 42 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 130 with a rise of 6 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 434 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1619, and the OI - P spread was 1185 with a rise of 48. The oil - meal ratio was 2.64 with a rise of 0.05 [4] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 190, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1238 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 24th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 41.0 (compared with 37.3 last week and 84.7 last year), palm oil was 39.2, and rapeseed oil was 75.8 (compared with 76.9 last week and 41.5 last year) [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to ITS data, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% month - on - month, an increase of 59.9 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil increased by more than four times month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of June 13, 2025 (the 24th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decrease [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.87 million tons, and the operating rate was 63.49%. As of June 13, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 84.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis was stable [6][8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.15 million tons, and the operating rate was 19.06%. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1400. The spot market was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but beware of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [11] - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [12] 3.4 Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the monthly spreads of Y 9 - 1, P 5 - 9, and OI 5 - 9; and the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 05 and OI - Y 05 [15][18]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 15 日 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月超预期增产利空逐步被市场消化，短期矛盾不明显，跟随原油、中加及中美关系 影响下的油脂板块震荡筑底为主，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 0.37%。周五晚上跟随美豆油大幅上涨，下周一预 计保持上行势头。 豆油：豆系市场驱动不明显，供应问题淡化，但中美缓和给美豆市场带来利多情绪，同时现货端有储 备消息扰动，豆油 09 合约周涨 0.62%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月产量超预期恢复提前带来 200 万吨的库存水平，印尼虽一季度库存维持低位，但 4 月库存有望随出口大减而累至 300 万吨以上，故二季度印马产地库存有恢复至 550 万吨的正常水平，因 此基本面看在至三季度产地报价可能还会出现松动以进一步释放压力。虽暂维持基本面有压力尚未释放的 判断，但下跌过程中存在较强支撑，资金对于棕榈油的多配基于宏观配置、油品对冲、提前布局下半年行 情等考虑 ...