【博时市场点评6月25日】沪指年内新高，两市成交超1.6万亿 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数继续上涨，沪指创下年内新高，创业板指涨幅超3%，沪深两市成交进一步放量至1.6 万亿以上。海外方面，昨日，伊朗与以色列停火协议得到双方确认，大幅缓解了市场避险情绪，同时美 联储意外释放鸽派信号，若通胀可控不排除下月降息可能性，缓解了全球流动性收紧的担忧，对新兴市 场资金面形成直接利好；国内方面，9月阅兵既有传统武器装备参阅，还会安排新型作战力量参阅，体 现我军适应科技发展和战争形态演变、打赢未来战争的强大能力。国内国外的信息均指向风险偏好提 升，近两日A股成交量较之前明显放大，后续仍需关注中美经贸博弈，以及国内基本面在外需影响下的 韧性情况，7月将进入中报披露期，市场或仍将呈现震荡态势，配置上可关注科技+红利的哑铃结构以 及业绩有改善的方向。 消息面 央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费 领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个 方面提出19项重点举措。《意见》明确，设立服务消费与养老再贷款，额度5000亿元。健全投资和 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the retail sector leading gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3419.09 points, down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10240.13 points, up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index at 2073.26 points, up 0.44% [1] Economic Policies and Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with six departments, issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need for a coordinated capital market to promote stable development and innovative financial products to meet household wealth management needs [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the organization of a "New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" in 2025 to promote electric vehicle adoption in rural areas [2] - Guangdong Province released a plan to stimulate economic growth by promoting the replacement of old products in sectors such as automotive and home appliances [3] Corporate Announcements - Youyan New Materials announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary plans to introduce strategic investors, with a total investment of 300 million yuan from the second phase of the Big Fund [4] - Youngor Group reported the sale of financial assets, including shares in CITIC and CITIC Bank, with a total transaction amount of 4.175 billion yuan [5] - Changchuan Technology plans to raise no more than 3.132 billion yuan through a private placement for semiconductor equipment research and development [6] - Tailin Microelectronics expects a 267% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year [7] - Huatai Securities has been approved to issue up to 10 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [9] International Context - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.43%, the Dow Jones up 1.19%, and the S&P 500 up 1.11%, marking new closing highs since early March and late February respectively [10] - International oil futures experienced significant declines, with WTI crude oil futures for August down 6.04% and Brent crude oil futures down 6.07% [10] - Goldman Sachs maintained an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [10]

股市谣言由来已久，近来又有新变化。手段更隐蔽：借助AI技术的加持，语音模拟、人脸替换、场景 生成等手段层出不穷，"有图有真相"。传播更迅速：只需动动手指编辑发送，就可批量生产似是而非 的"小作文"，一经抖音、朋友圈、微博等社交媒体传播，即形成病毒式发酵。内容更迷惑：发布转融 通、融资融券有关制度安排等不实信息，散布有关量化基金监管政策谣言……越是投资者关心、越是重 要敏感的话题，谣言造得越是煞有介事，越容易扰乱人心。 一篇篇股市"小作文"的反转，一次次监管部门的重拳出击，也给投资者带来警示：投资者应增强辨识能 力，面对网络上的只言片语、语音视频，不盲目作判断、不轻易下结论，面对来源不明的所谓"权威消 息""独家信息"，勿一味迷信、听风就是雨。擦亮眼睛，多一些求证和思考，多一些小心和审慎，在泥 沙俱下的信息洪流中保持清醒，避免成为被操控和收割的对象。 当前，稳住股市被放在重要位置，是稳经济、稳预期的重要抓手。一个活跃稳定的股市，有赖于真实透 明的信息环境，有赖于风清气正的交易氛围，唯有平台强化责任意识，有关部门提高违法成本，投资者 保持理性冷静，方能合力斩断股市谣言利益链，更好地稳市场、稳预期、稳信心。 （文章 ...

中央汇金公司召开2025年党建与经营工作会议。 近日，中央汇金公司召开2025年党建与经营工作会议，总结2024年党建与经营管理情况，部署当前及今后一 个时期公司重点工作。 百万用户都在看 超级空头，突袭！ 会议强调，2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，中央汇金公司要进一步强化工作统筹，既锚定年度目标任务推 动落实，确保"十四五"圆满收官，又要着眼于重要节点，前瞻谋划好公司"十五五"发展规划，探索完善国有 金融资本受托管理模式，加强中央汇金公司履职能力建设，推动控参股机构高质量发展，奋力开创工作新局 面。一是要突出党建引领，持续提升政治能力、落实政治责任，深化党的领导融入公司治理，全面配合中央指 导组指导督导，切实把深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育成果转化为高质量发展成效。二是要突出核心功 能，更好履行国有金融资本受托管理职责，推动控参股机构持续当好服务实体经济的"主力军"、打造一流金 融机构的"领头雁"和维护金融稳定的"压舱石"。三是要突出职能统筹，强化支持赋能，凝聚发展合力，推动 直管企业发展迈上新台阶。 此前，中央汇金公司有关负责人在4月8日答记者问时表示，中央汇金公司是国有独资公司，目前是二十多家 金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Huijin Company emphasizes the importance of political leadership and high-quality development in managing state-owned financial capital, aiming to enhance its role in stabilizing the capital market and supporting the real economy [2][4]. Group 1: Meeting Summary - The Central Huijin Company held a meeting to summarize its 2024 performance and outline key tasks for the future, focusing on the integration of political responsibilities and financial management [2][3]. - The company aims to strengthen its management capabilities and enhance the quality of its controlled and participating institutions, ensuring they effectively serve the real economy and maintain financial stability [3]. Group 2: Strategic Goals for 2025 - 2025 is identified as a critical year for completing the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on achieving annual targets while planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The company plans to deepen the integration of party leadership into corporate governance and enhance its political capabilities [3]. Group 3: Role in Capital Market - The Central Huijin Company is recognized as a key strategic player in maintaining capital market stability, acting as a "national team" and a stabilizing force in the market [4][5]. - The company expresses confidence in the development prospects of the capital market and plans to increase its investments in various market styles, particularly in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [4].

Group 1 - The private economy is a vital force for advancing Chinese modernization and high-quality development, with local governments implementing practical measures to enhance the confidence and vitality of private enterprises [1][4][20] - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" will officially take effect on May 20, establishing the legal status of the private economy and emphasizing its role in sustainable and high-quality development [2][4] - The law addresses key concerns for private enterprises, including fair competition, investment financing, and technological innovation, providing institutional solutions to development bottlenecks [6][8][10] Group 2 - A series of financial policies have been introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which are expected to inject significant liquidity into the market [22][41] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, with social financing and loan growth showing positive trends, indicating a healthy financial environment [39][40] - The government aims to support small and micro enterprises, particularly those involved in foreign trade, through targeted financial measures to enhance their resilience and competitiveness [28][44] Group 3 - The government is focusing on enhancing consumption as a driver of economic growth, with policies aimed at increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups and promoting service consumption [35][36] - Structural reforms and policy measures are being implemented to stimulate both supply and demand, creating a favorable environment for consumption growth [36][37] - The government is also exploring innovative service models to improve the business environment and enhance efficiency in administrative processes [13][18]

5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。会上，中国证监会主席吴清在介 绍将推出的增量政策之余，谈到了近期股市形势和稳定运行的展望。 ▲中国证监会主席吴清 杨佳 摄 吴清提到，4月初以来，美政府关税政策严重冲击国际经贸秩序，国际金融市场剧烈动荡，也给国内资本市场带来很大压力。证监会会同相关 部门迅速行动，从政策对冲、资金对冲、预期对冲等方面打出了一揽子稳市"组合拳"。包括中国人民银行、金融监管总局、国务院国资委、外 汇局等释放强有力政策信号，中央汇金公司果断出手，全国社保基金、证券基金机构、银行保险机构以及各类投资者都坚定信心、积极投入， 一大批上市公司采取回购增持等多种方式维护股价稳定。 "所谓众人拾柴火焰高，风雨同舟浪自平。在广大投资者和市场参与各方共同努力下，A股市场经历了初期实际上也就一天的大幅波动后持续 反弹、回稳向好，展现出较为强劲的韧性和抗风险能力。"吴清说。 吴清表示，当前，我国经济回稳向好的态势不断巩固，各有关方面对外部冲击做了政策应对的充分准备，这不仅为充满不确定性的世界经济注 入更多确定性，也为我国资本市场稳定运行创造了坚实的基础和条件。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces initial resistance at 23,000 points, influenced by U.S. President Trump's announcement to suspend new tariffs for 90 days while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports [2] - The market anticipates stronger economic support measures from the central government, including additional bond issuance in Q3 to stimulate domestic demand and mitigate tariff impacts [2][6] - Recent developments suggest a potential reduction in tariffs by the U.S., with positive progress reported in U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] Sector Outlook - There is a positive outlook for domestic consumption stocks, driven by expectations of increased policy support for consumer spending [3] Corporate News - Geely Automobile (0175) proposes a privatization of Zeekr at a 13.6% premium [5] - XPeng Motors (9868) is rumored to be considering a spin-off for its Hong Kong or U.S. listing [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) is reportedly planning a Hong Kong IPO with a discount of less than 10% [5] - Pop Mart (9992) non-executive director sold 11.91 million shares, realizing HKD 2.27 billion [5] - Old Town Gold (6181) plans a share placement at an 8% discount to raise HKD 2.7 billion [5] - Budweiser (1876) reported an 18% decline in first-quarter profit [5] - Hongteng Precision (6088) has terminated the sale of Autotalks [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, citing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year [6][12] - The People's Bank of China announced ten measures to enhance macroeconomic control, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a decrease in policy interest rates [10] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for four consecutive months, with a total of USD 3.2817 trillion as of the end of April, reflecting a rise of USD 41 billion [11] - Hong Kong's PMI for April remained at 48.3, indicating a continued contraction in the private sector [11]

继去年9月24日之后，三大金融管理部门昨日再度同台，介绍正在或即将出台的一揽子增量金融政策。当前，外部冲 击影响加大，稳固经济持续回升向好基础"关键在我"。中央政治局会议已部署要求各方充分备足预案，本次三大金 融管理部门集中"官宣"的金融政策包即是对前期安排的细化落实。 我国经济结构转型正处于关键时期，资本市场因其促进创新资本形成、助力产业转型升级、完善社会财富管理、稳 定社会心理预期等方面的独特作用，在经济发展全局中的战略地位进一步凸显。 去年一揽子增量政策出台后，资本市场内在稳定性持续增强。面对近期密集、强烈的外部冲击，中国证监会会同相 关部门迅速行动、从容应对，打出政策对冲、资金对冲、预期对冲的稳市"组合拳"，A股市场初期经历大幅波动后， 持续反弹、回稳向好，展现出自身发展的强劲韧性和抗风险能力。 从此次出台的金融政策可以窥见，我们的政策工具箱十分充足，应对风高浪急的外部环境完全有条件、有信心、有 能力。其中，仅货币政策就迎来数量型、价格型、结构型三方面的"十箭齐发"；同时，助企纾困、护航新质生产力 发展壮大的系列举措"拳拳到肉"，精准直抵实体经济。因时因势落地重要储备政策，再次释放了坚决推动高质量发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of monetary policies to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1][2][12]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced 10 measures to enhance macroeconomic control, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The PBOC will lower the policy interest rate by 0.1%, bringing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate down from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - A 0.25% reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools will be implemented, affecting various special structural tools and re-lending rates [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will be reduced by 0.25%, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. - An increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan will support the implementation of new policies [5]. Financial Regulatory Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight incremental policies to enhance the effectiveness of existing policies and support economic recovery [6]. - New financing systems will be introduced to stabilize the real estate market and expand the long-term investment pilot scope for insurance funds [7][8]. - Policies will be developed to support small and private enterprises, as well as to assist businesses affected by tariffs [9][10]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce a package of financial policies to stabilize the capital market and enhance investor confidence [12]. - Reforms in public funds will focus on aligning the interests of fund companies with investors, including a performance-based fee structure [12][13]. - The CSRC will revise regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the capacity for innovation and risk management in listed companies [13]. Market Performance - On May 7, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.80% to 3342.67 points [14]. - Approximately 3300 stocks rose, with significant gains in sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and agriculture [15]. - Analysts suggest that the newly announced financial policies are expected to boost market liquidity and support the transition to high-quality economic development [15].