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有色套利早报-20260109
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 00:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 9, 2026 [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 9, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101970, the LME spot price was 12837, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.93, with a loss of 941.12. The loss for spot export was 1194.91 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24180, the LME spot price was 3126, and the spot ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1929.08 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24000, the LME spot price was 3064, and the spot ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1591.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146650, the LME spot price was 16961, and the spot ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.02, with a profit of 1776.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17350, the LME spot price was 1988, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.59, with a profit of 228.79 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, the third month, the fourth month, and the fifth month and the spot month were - 1950, - 1920, - 1940, - 2010 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 618, 1134, 1659, 2183 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 340, - 305, - 270, - 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 625, - 585, - 540, - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 367, 500, 634 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 420, - 385, - 350, - 345 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 324, 433, 543 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 10960, - 10810, - 10510, - 10150 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 900, and the theoretical spread was 7176 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract, the next - month contract and the spot were 1145, - 805 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 378, 656 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 135, - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 69, 209 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 158, 273 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 9, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.22, 4.26, 5.83, 0.99, 1.37, 0.72 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.06, 4.12, 6.28, 0.99, 1.53, 0.65 respectively [5]
(2026年1月5日):宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20260105
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 02:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 5, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report provides the basis data of thermal coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025. During this period, the basis values are - 125.4, - 129.4, - 131.4, - 131.4, and - 123.4 respectively, and the spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It presents the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [19] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [27] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 31, 2025, are presented [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [47]
有色套利早报-20260105
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 01:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 5, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 98790, LME spot is 12526, ratio is 7.86; March price is 98380, LME March is 12496, ratio is 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.94 with a profit of - 1808.32, spot export profit is - 455.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23310, LME spot is 3081, ratio is 7.56; March price is 23310, LME March is 3117, ratio is 5.52. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.36 with a profit of - 2455.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22460, LME spot is 2966, ratio is 7.57; March price is 22950, LME March is 2993, ratio is 7.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.33 with a profit of - 2249.88 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 135050, LME spot is 16455, ratio is 8.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.03 with a profit of 1259.30 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17150, LME spot is 1971, ratio is 8.69; March price is 17360, LME March is 2015, ratio is 11.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.60 with a profit of 177.81 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 560, - 420, - 420, - 450 respectively, theoretical spreads are 596, 1090, 1593, 2096 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 125, - 90, - 65, - 20 respectively, theoretical spreads are 220, 346, 472, 598 [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 25, 0, 30, 65 respectively, theoretical spreads are 226, 353, 479, 606 [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 45, 55, 50 respectively, theoretical spreads are 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 2450, 2650, 2930, 3220 respectively [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is - 3570, theoretical spread is 6744 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 15, - 545 respectively, theoretical spreads are 327, 790 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 124, 259 [4] - **Zinc (repeated data)**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 204, 335 [5] - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 165, 205 respectively, theoretical spreads are 150, 264 [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.22, 4.29, 5.67, 0.98, 1.32, 0.74 in Shanghai and 3.98, 4.15, 6.18, 0.96, 1.49, 0.65 in London [5]
下游开工延续走低,关注装置检修兑现情况
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-04 12:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment boost drives the polyolefin market to stop falling and rebound, but the change in the supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. - For PE, the supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited new planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand remains weak, and there is still pressure on price and inventory removal. - For PP, although there is an expectation of supply reduction and cost support, the short - term rebound depends on whether the scale of device maintenance can increase, and the price increase space is limited due to insufficient demand improvement. - Suggested strategies include short - term cautious short - selling hedging for LLDPE, waiting and seeing for PP, and specific operations for cross - period and cross - variety spread trading [3][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨(+11), PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨(+27). LL华北现货6300元/吨(+0), LL华东现货6450元/吨(+50), PP华东现货6160元/吨(+0). LL华北基差 - 172元/吨(+9), LL华东基差 - 72元/吨( - 11), PP华东基差 - 188元/吨( - 17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE上月产量301万吨(+12), LLDPE产量143万吨(+9), PE开工率84%(+0%); PP上月产量356万吨(+9), PP开工率77%( - 3%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨(+78.3), PP油制生产利润 - 415.5元/吨(+78.3), PDH制PP生产利润 - 828.8元/吨( - 35.7) [1]. - **Import and Export**: PE11月进口量106万吨(+5), 11月出口量9万吨(+0); PP11月进口量30万吨(+3), 11月出口量26万吨(+2). LL进口利润99.3元/吨( - 2.5), PP进口利润 - 351.2元/吨(+7.4), PP出口利润 - 22.4美元/吨( - 0.9) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率45%( - 5%), PE下游包装膜开工率49%( - 2%), PP下游塑编开工率44%(+0%), PP下游BOPP膜开工率63%(+0%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply and demand issues. In late December, it rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Only a new 50 - million - ton/year FDPE device of Zhanjiang BASF was put into production in December. In 2026, the new production slows down, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%. There is a new production vacuum period in Q1. The planned maintenance in January is limited, and the import window is open again, increasing supply pressure. Some devices may switch production [3]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the import volume was 106.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The import window reopened in December, and the expected increase in low - cost imported goods may impact domestic supply [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall downstream PE开工 continues to decline. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak, and the demand support remains weak [4]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory accumulates. The inventory removal of each link in the industrial chain may slow down, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure around the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply - demand imbalance. Near the end of the month, it rebounded, but the rebound height depends on whether the device maintenance can be realized [6]. - **Supply**: No new device was put into production in December. Only a 15 - million - ton external - propylene - purchasing PP device of Huizhou Lituo is expected to be put into production in Q1 2026, but there is uncertainty. The profit pressure may lead to more device maintenance [6]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import volume was 30.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.64%, and the export volume was 25.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.49%. The import window is not open, and the export may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工 is weak, except for BOPP. The policy in 2026 is beneficial to demand, but the overall support is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The upstream inventory pressure exists, and the inventory removal of each link is not smooth. There is still inventory removal pressure due to limited demand [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell and hedge for LLDPE at high prices; wait and see for PP, and pay attention to device maintenance and cost disturbances [8]. - **Cross - period**: Do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 contract spreads at high prices [8]. - **Cross - variety**: Do short - selling operations for the long - term L - PP spread at high prices [8]. 3.4 Polyolefin Basis Strategy - **PE Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of LLDPE continues to weaken. In January, the basis may fluctuate weakly in the range of - 100 to - 200. It is recommended to do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 spreads at high prices [13]. - **PP Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of PP fluctuates weakly in the range of - 130 to - 210. The basis may continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the realization of device maintenance, and the month - spread fluctuates within a range [13].
有色套利早报-20251231
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 01:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on December 31, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 97,700, LME price was 12,516, and the ratio was 7.86; the three - month domestic price was 98,240, LME price was 12,477, and the ratio was 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.95 with a profit of - 1,171.20 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23,290, LME price was 3,091, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 23,420, LME price was 3,123, and the ratio was 5.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37 with a profit of - 2,576.06 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 22,180, LME price was 2,941, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 22,620, LME price was 2,974, and the ratio was 7.54. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2,321.75 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 131,750, LME price was 16,358, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.04 with a profit of 1,259.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME price was 1,979, and the ratio was 8.74; the three - month domestic price was 17,510, LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 11.48. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60 with a profit of 273.72 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were - 630, - 480, - 420, and - 460 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 596, 1089, 1592, and 2094 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 180, 220, 265, and 295, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 344, 469, and 594 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 105, 145, and 180, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 348, 473, and 597 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 70, 70, and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for 次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were 7,080, 7,360, 7,630, and 7,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1,410, and the theoretical spread was 6,712 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 1,150 and 520 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 489 and 936 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 90 and 90, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 282 (also mentioned 185 and 325) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40 and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 136 and 252 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.19, 4.34, 5.61, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in Shanghai (three - consecutive) and 4.02, 4.21, 6.25, 0.95, 1.48, 0.64 in London (three - consecutive) [5].
有色套利早报-20251230
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 00:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 30, 2025, offering insights for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 100950 domestically and 12584 on LME with a ratio of 7.80; March price is 98940 domestically and 12553 on LME with a ratio of 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.96 with a loss of 1855.70 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23380 domestically and 3086 on LME with a ratio of 7.58; March price is 23285 domestically and 3116 on LME with a ratio of 5.65. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.38 with a loss of 2484.97 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22490 domestically and 2934 on LME with a ratio of 7.66; March price is 22625 domestically and 2972 on LME with a ratio of 7.66. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.34 with a loss of 1994.64 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 130850 domestically and 15520 on LME with a ratio of 8.43. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.05 with a profit of 1196.97 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17475 domestically and 1967 on LME with a ratio of 8.83; March price is 17465 domestically and 2011 on LME with a ratio of 11.63. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.62 with a profit of 421.73 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 260, 340, 400, 390; theoretical differences are 595, 1088, 1590, 2092 [4] - **Zinc**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 55, 85, 130, 130; theoretical differences are 219, 344, 469, 594 [4] - **Aluminum**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 235, 290, 325, 340; theoretical differences are 223, 346, 470, 594 [4] - **Lead**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 50, - 75, - 95, - 125; theoretical differences are 213, 321, 430, 539 [4] - **Nickel**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 730, - 410, - 140, 200 [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 difference is 1320 with a theoretical difference of 6865 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 2120 and - 1860; theoretical differences are 26 and 620 [4] - **Zinc**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 180 and - 125; theoretical differences are 119 and 288 [5] - **Lead**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are 65 and 15; theoretical differences are 144 and 260 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 4.25, 4.37, 5.67, 0.97, 1.30, 0.75 in Shanghai and 3.96, 4.14, 6.09, 0.96, 1.47, 0.65 in London [8]
有色套利早报-20251229
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:06
Group 1: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Domestic spot price is 97,800, three - month price is 98,860, LME three - month price is 12,133, and the ratio is 8.11 [1] Zinc - Domestic spot price is 23,200, three - month price is 23,215, LME three - month price is 3,087, and the ratio is 5.62 [1] Aluminum - Domestic spot price is 22,020, three - month price is 22,470, LME three - month price is 2,957, and the ratio is 7.54 [1] Nickel - Domestic spot price is 128,750, and the profit from spot import is 45.32 [1] Lead - Domestic spot price is 17,225, three - month price is 17,535, LME three - month price is 2,000, and the ratio is 11.58 [3] Group 2: Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,730, 2,870, 2,930, and 2,910 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 582, 1,062, 1,551, and 2,040 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 140, 185, 230, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 342, 466, and 591 respectively [4] Aluminum - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 210, 275, 300, and 345 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 345, 468, and 591 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 275, 255, 255, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 respectively [4] Nickel - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1,770, 2,050, 2,410, and 2,860 respectively [4] Tin - The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,350, and the theoretical spread is 6,941 [4] Group 3: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1,740 and 990 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 149 and 1,087 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 170 and - 30 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 146 and 281 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 55 and 330 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 153 and 268 respectively [5] Group 4: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.26, 4.40, 5.64, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.76 respectively [5]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年12月25日)-20251225
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties, including power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on December 25, 2025, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads [1] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - Power coal basis data from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided, showing a continuous decline from - 90.4 yuan/ton on December 18 to - 120.4 yuan/ton on December 24. The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil and crude oil/asphalt from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt and the basis of INE crude oil [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are presented [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are given [11] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with a note that the main contracts of rebar are in January, May, and October [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are given [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [30] (2) London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 24, 2025 are presented [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [43] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented [43] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are given [43] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [54] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (next - month - current - month, next - quarter - current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [54]
有色套利早报-20251225
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:24
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 25, 2025, which can help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 94,660, LME price is 12,243, and the ratio is 7.62; March domestic price is 96,230, LME price is 12,224, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.98, with a loss of 2,003.83, and a profit of 1,716.73 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,097, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,126, and the ratio is 5.49. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a loss of 2,720.57 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 22,030, LME price is 2,933, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 22,385, LME price is 2,968, and the ratio is 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.35, with a loss of 2,479.20 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 129,900, LME price is 15,697, and the ratio is 8.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.06, with a profit of 45.32 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17,025, LME price is 1,960, and the ratio is 8.69; March domestic price is 17,200, LME price is 1,998, and the ratio is 11.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.63, with a profit of 106.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,360, 2,490, 2,530, and 2,560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 571, 1,039, 1,517, and 1,995 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 165, 205, 235, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 343, 467, and 591 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 200, 255, 275, and 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 344, 467, and 590 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 245, 220, 245, and 255 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, and 528 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 4,960, 5,210, 5,370, and 5,720 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,660, and the theoretical spread is 7,006 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 920 and 1,440 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 302 and 1,169 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 205 and - 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 154 and 290 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 45 and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 259 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.14, 4.30, 5.59, 0.96, 1.30, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.94, 4.11, 6.10, 0.96, 1.48, and 0.65 respectively [5].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年12月23日)-20251223
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on December 23, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report provides the basis data of power coal from December 16 to December 22, 2025. During this period, the basis values were - 74.4, - 83.4, - 90.4, - 98.4, and - 106.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It shows the basis, price ratio, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from December 16 to December 22, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 22 was 34.10 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 22 was - 405 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rubber was - 40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 22 was 1693 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on December 22 was 194.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9(10) - month - 1 - month, and 9(10) - month - 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rebar was - 2.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 22 was 4.00 [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 22 was - 510 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 6.58 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 22 was - 85 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 49 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc. from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 22 was 1.87 [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 22 was 46.82 [52]. - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 15.2 [52].