Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global soybean market, focusing on the impact of U.S.-China trade relations and the dynamics of soybean production and consumption in major producing countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [1][2][3][4][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Soybean Production**: The global soybean production is expected to reach 427 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with Brazil contributing the majority of the increase, reaching 175 million tons, accounting for 41% of global production [4][16]. - **U.S. Soybean Market**: The U.S. soybean planting area is projected to decrease by 4% to 84.5 million acres, but yield estimates are higher, leading to a slight decline in production by 0.6% [4][5]. - **Export Challenges**: U.S. soybean exports are facing challenges due to trade tensions, with a projected decline of 1.9% for the 2025-2026 season. If China and the EU shift to Brazilian soybeans, U.S. soybeans may struggle to find buyers [8][19]. - **Chinese Import Trends**: China has significantly increased its reliance on Brazilian soybeans, with Brazil accounting for 70% of imports in 2024, up from 45% in 2017, while U.S. imports have decreased to 22.8% [9][10]. - **Domestic Demand and Pricing**: The USDA forecasts a 16% decrease in carryover stocks, which is expected to drive U.S. soybean prices up, despite a slight downward adjustment in export forecasts [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Trade Policies**: The ongoing trade war has led to significant changes in the soybean market, with the U.S. imposing tariffs that have affected export dynamics. The potential for further tariffs on European imports remains a concern [2][19]. - **Domestic Soybean Production**: China's domestic non-GMO soybean production has increased but is facing growth limitations. The reliance on traditional planting methods is seen as a bottleneck, necessitating the adoption of GMO technology for further increases [12][14][13]. - **Future Market Trends**: The global soybean market is expected to see increased trade flows, particularly in soybean meal, driven by demand from major producing countries. However, the overall growth in global feed demand is anticipated to be limited, leading to excess supply pressures [20][21][17]. - **Plant Oil Market Dynamics**: The plant oil market is showing potential for growth, with a focus on the relationship between oil prices and soybean production costs. The market for plant oils is expected to outperform the soybean market in terms of resilience [24][25]. Conclusion - The global soybean market is undergoing significant changes due to trade tensions, shifts in import dependencies, and production dynamics. The U.S. faces challenges in maintaining its export levels, while Brazil continues to strengthen its position as a leading supplier. Future market trends will be influenced by various factors, including trade policies, weather conditions, and international oil prices.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the innovation ecosystem and supporting agricultural self-sufficiency [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed this week [12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will accelerate, which is expected to improve self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - Companies like Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives [11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - The number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.66% [12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, such as Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the planting sector include Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [11] - In the pig farming sector, companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group are highlighted for their potential benefits [12] - The report also mentions companies in the animal health sector, such as Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co., which are expected to gain from market trends [12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the need for a structured and collaborative innovation system [11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed [12] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose, but prices may exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development, and recommends leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [11] 2. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - As of March 2025, the number of breeding sows in China is 40.39 million, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous month [12] - The report forecasts that pig prices may exceed expectations in the latter half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [12] 3. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted, while companies in the animal health sector such as Jinhai Biological, Bio-Stock, and Placo are expected to benefit [12] 4. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.99% during the week, with notable gains in the aquaculture and planting sectors [14] - The report provides detailed tracking of key agricultural product prices, including corn, wheat, and soybeans, indicating price trends and changes [24][27][38]

江山股份 20250428 摘要 • 江山股份一季度业绩受益于产品价格和销量双重提升，其中杀虫剂、酰胺 类除草剂、氯碱和日电贸分别贡献毛利占比 30%、18%、13%和 21%， 制剂板块（含杀虫剂、酰胺类除草剂和草甘膦制剂）毛利占比达 20%。 • 公司通过控制销售节奏，将部分产品转入库存以待价格上涨，并在 2025 年一季度适时销售库存产品，推动销量增长。预计二季度酰胺类除草剂销 量将因季节性因素低于一季度。 • 2024 年江山股份制剂板块收入 15 亿元，占总收入约 27%，毛利率为 10.6%，毛利占比 20%，净利润约 4,000 万元。销售费用较高，主要由 于推广费用和人员成本。 • 公司草甘膦目前基本满负荷生产，IDA 法草甘膦开工率约 80%，总体开工 率 80%-90%。库存控制在一个月以内，目前库存量约为半个月产量。 • 草甘膦备货旺季因地区而异，南美洲 9-10 月开始备货，次年 1-2 月进入 用药高峰。价格受气候、生产端事件和政策因素影响，转基因技术推广可 能对草甘膦价格产生影响。 Q&A 请介绍一下江山股份 2025 年第一季度的经营情况。 2025 年第一季度，江山股份实现营业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's genetically modified (GM) corn industry has reached a crucial development stage. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' public announcement of 99 GM corn and soybean varieties on April 8 demonstrates China's determination to promote GM technology, responding to the call of the Central No. 1 Document to "develop new - quality productivity in agriculture." GM corn, as a pilot crop, is expected to be more widely promoted [1][3]. - With the increase in the planting area of GM corn year - by - year and the subsequent growth of penetration rate, China's domestic corn yield per unit is expected to increase, and the supply - demand structure will be further improved [3]. - In the future, with increased policy support and technological maturity, the commercialization of GM corn, soybeans and other crops is expected to make further breakthroughs, becoming an important means to ensure food security and agricultural modernization [11]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transgenic Introduction and Global Development Situation 3.1.1 Basic Introduction of GM Corn - GM corn is created by using genetic engineering to introduce foreign genes into the corn genome, endowing it with new genetic traits such as insect resistance, herbicide tolerance, stress tolerance, and improved nutritional value. Global large - scale commercial GM crops are mainly concentrated in the first - generation products, with herbicide - tolerance (HT) and insect - resistance (Bt) being the main target traits, and most GM corn has both traits [4]. - Different target genes in GM corn have different action mechanisms. For example, the Bt gene makes corn produce insecticidal proteins to kill pests, and the epsps gene makes corn tolerate glyphosate herbicides [5]. 3.1.2 Global GM Crop Situation - Since 1996, the global commercial planting area of GM crops has been increasing steadily. By 2024, it had reached 210 million hectares. Currently, more than 30 countries allow the commercial planting of GM crops [5]. - Globally, the main GM crops are soybeans, corn, cotton, rapeseed, and sugar beets. In terms of planting area, soybeans rank first, followed by corn. In terms of the proportion of GM crops, cotton has the highest GM coverage rate [6][7]. - The countries with the largest GM crop planting areas are the United States, Brazil, Argentina, India, and Canada, accounting for over 90% of the global total. In the United States, the proportion of GM corn with stacked traits has been increasing, and by 2024, it accounted for 83%. The penetration rate of GM corn in the United States reached 94% in 2024 [7]. 3.2 Policy Driven 3.2.1 Development Process - China's development of GM crops follows the path of "non - edible → indirectly edible → edible." The development of GM technology in China started in 1986 and has gone through several stages, and in the future, the commercialization of GM crops is expected to make further breakthroughs [10][11]. 3.2.2 Approval Process and Current Achievements - The commercial planting of domestic GM crops follows a strict approval process, including three - scale tests, application for a safety certificate, and variety approval. As of December 31, 2024, there were 34 GM corn varieties in the valid period in China. If the varieties in the third - batch list pass the approval, China will have a cumulative total of 161 GM corn varieties and 19 GM soybean varieties approved [13][14][15]. 3.3 Impact of GM Technology on Yield per Unit - According to US experience, the yield per unit of Bt insect - resistant corn has increased significantly compared to traditional varieties. In China, the average yield of corn has been increasing, and the large - scale application of GM corn will further increase the yield potential [17][18]. - GM corn technology has great application potential in insect resistance and herbicide tolerance. It can reduce the cost of pest control by 30% - 50%, increase yield by 8% - 12%, and has a control success rate of over 90% against pests such as fall armyworms. The herbicide - tolerance effect can reach over 95%. The average yield increase of GM corn is about 8.9% [18]. - Different companies' GM corn varieties have different yield - increasing effects. For example, Dabeinong's GM corn varieties in the Yellow - Huai region and Northeast China have an average yield increase of about 10% compared to conventional varieties [19]. 3.4 Seed Pricing and Impact on Corn Planting Costs - The profitability of using GM seeds for individual farmers depends on yield loss reduction and relevant pesticide and seed costs. If the benefits from yield loss reduction plus the reduction in pesticide expenditure are greater than the premium of GM seeds, it is profitable to use GM seeds [19]. - GM crop seeds have a premium compared to conventional seeds. Assuming a 40% premium rate for domestic GM corn seeds, GM corn can significantly reduce pesticide use. A rough cost calculation for Jilin Province shows that the production cost per mu of corn wet grain can be reduced by about 7% [20]. 3.5 Estimation of GM Corn Promotion Area - From 2021 to 2024, the pilot planting area of GM corn in China has gradually expanded. According to reports, in 2025, the planting area of GM corn in China is expected to reach 45 - 50 million mu, and the number of permitted planting provinces will increase from 8 to 13. The estimated penetration rate in 2025 is about 6% - 7.7%, reaching 20% in 2026, increasing by 30% - 40% annually from 2027 - 2028, and approaching the international mature level in 2029 [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the pig farming sector, with a notable increase in slaughter volume and consumer demand. The average price of pigs is showing a slight upward trend, indicating potential profitability for producers [2][12] - The agricultural sector is benefiting from supportive financial policies aimed at revitalizing the seed industry, with a focus on enhancing productivity through biotechnology and improved financial services [1][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has introduced new financial support measures for the seed industry, including a total of 150 billion yuan in loans and funds since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][11] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.16% during the week, while the overall market indices showed positive growth [14] - The top-performing sub-sectors included animal health and feed, indicating a shift in investor interest towards these areas [14][18] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - The average price of corn is 2278.78 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47% [24] - The average price of pigs is reported at 14.98 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.44% [12][61] - The average price of soybeans is 3887.37 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.16% [38] 4. Profitability Forecasts and Valuations - Specific companies in the pig farming sector, such as 京基智农, 牧原股份, and 温氏股份, are recommended for their potential profitability due to improved cost management and higher output flexibility [2][12] - In the seed industry, companies like 隆平高科 and 登海种业 are highlighted for their competitive advantages and expected benefits from the supportive policies [1][11]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 猪肉3 月能繁去化，屠宰量同环比均大增 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 15 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：4 月 22 日，农业农村部种业管理司、计划财务司 联合中国农业银行三农对公业务部，通过线上直播方式介绍中 国农业银行支持种业振兴的最新政策与服务举措、融资租赁产 品、投资金融服务模式等内容。国家农作物、畜禽、水产种业 阵型企业、各省优势种业企业和各级种业管理部门、农业银行 系统相关单位线上参加推介会。为落实全国种业企业座谈会有 关部署要求，今年以来农业农村部种业管理司、计划财务司探 索开通"金融惠种直播间"，搭建常态化政银企对接平台，把 重点金融机构最新政策信息第一时间送达种业企业，推动惠企 政策落实落地。此次直播是"金融惠种直播间"第二期，邀请 中国农业银行及子公司通过"政策解读+案例分享"的形式详 细介绍了支持政策措施。截至目前，中国农业银行已出台《支 持种业振兴行动金融服务方案》《支持种业振兴信贷政策》和 《农作物种业行业信贷政策》，启动实施种业振兴服务提升行 ...

Industry Overview - The biobreeding industry is a crucial segment of high-tech agricultural development in China, with a focus on modern agricultural practices [1] - As of January 2025, there are 21 biobreeding industrial parks in China, with the highest concentration in Shandong Province, which has 6 parks [1] Company Developments - Dabeinong has entered a strategic partnership with Fuhua Tongda Chemical Co., aiming to explore new technologies and applications for biobreeding crop herbicides [5] - Wanxiang Denong has reported that two genetically modified varieties have passed national approval, with four varieties participating in the national testing this year. These GM varieties are designed to resist pests, reducing yield loss [5] - Yisheng has successfully imported 28,000 sets of Lihong ancestor white feather broilers, contributing to a total of 230,000 sets imported this year, enhancing domestic supply [5] - Longping High-Tech has improved its rice breeding information system, achieving a 52.58% increase in breeding efficiency for high-yield varieties in the Yangtze River basin [5] Challenges in the Industry - The acceptance of genetically modified rice in China is lower compared to hybrid rice, primarily due to limited public awareness and promotion of GM technology [8] - Currently, only two GM rice varieties have received production safety certificates, indicating a gap in technology maturity compared to developed countries [8] - The dominance of hybrid rice seeds in the market poses a significant challenge for the commercialization and scaling of GM rice seeds [8]

春季关注春耕备货，宠物关注新品动向 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com linyidan030085@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 S0880524090001 本报告导读： 种子：玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货。宠物：京宠展召开，看好宠物经济 蓬勃发展，关注国产品牌新品动向。饲料行业：饲料竞争再起。 投资要点： [种业： Table_Summary] 玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货 上周玉米现货价格继续上涨，突破 2218 元/吨，延续年初以来的涨 势。2025 年在美国加征关税背景下，我国玉米粮食进口或进一步缩 减，看好 2025 年玉米粮价景气度回升。近期农业农村部发布 19 项 课题目录，包括"保障国家粮食安全的路径选择"、"粮食作物大 面积单产提升瓶颈制约与对策研究"等，体现政策对于粮食安全的 重视。转基因技术应用推动种业格局进一步改善，品种竞争力强、 技术储备领先的公司有望受益。春耕在即，建议关注种子经销商补 货情况，具备强竞争力的品种或在 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector shows slight inertia growth in breeding stock, highlighting the undervaluation and expectation gap in the sector [3][16] - The poultry sector emphasizes the fundamentals of white chickens and the marginal changes in breeding imports [17][18] - The feed sector recommends Hai Da Group due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuation [21] - The pet sector sees a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [25][26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of March 8, the national average pig price is 14.68 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 154 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][15] - The supply side shows an average market weight of 127.06 kg for pigs, with a 4.23% share of pigs over 150 kg, indicating a potential seasonal decline in prices due to weak demand [2][15] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting a historical low valuation [3][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainty in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][17] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the average price for live chickens in Shandong at 3.30 CNY per bird, supported by positive restocking sentiment [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and attention to Yisheng and Minhe [5][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its market share increase and expected improvement in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [21] - Prices for various aquatic products have shown significant increases, indicating a potential recovery in the aquaculture sector [21] Pet Sector - Domestic brands like Guibao Pet are expanding their market share through independent brand operations, targeting different price segments [25][26] - Pet food exports have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in volume and 22% in value, reflecting a robust market [25][26] Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness among leading seed companies [23][24] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the development of smart agriculture and drone applications [23][24]