Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is the primary reason for the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach [2][3] - Economic data since April has been inconsistent, presenting a challenge for the Federal Reserve [2] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts has become more pronounced, with a slight majority expecting at least two cuts this year [3] Group 2 - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, with President Trump criticizing Chairman Powell and calling for multiple rate cuts [5] - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized by Powell's stance of letting data guide decisions amidst political attacks [5] - Future policy paths for the Federal Reserve could vary significantly depending on the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of inflation falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target is now under control, with expectations for consumer price growth to slow to 1.4% by Q1 2026, without shaking market expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the risks of inflation declining are very limited, and the assessment indicates that inflation risks are balanced [1] - The ECB has lowered the key deposit rate from 4% to 2% over the past year, indicating the end of the easing cycle is near, as the economy shows resilience [1] - The market has understood the ECB President Lagarde's statement about being in a favorable position, believing that the goal of maintaining sustainable inflation at 2% is close [1][2] Group 2: Economic Uncertainty and Flexibility - Joachim Nagel, President of the German Central Bank, emphasized the need for flexibility in interest rate decisions due to high uncertainty in growth and inflation outlooks [2] - Nagel noted that recent data and ECB forecasts show that inflation has achieved its mission, but vigilance is necessary regarding price stability risks, particularly due to the ongoing Middle East tensions [2] Group 3: Future Projections - After a cumulative rate cut of 200 basis points within a year, policymakers are assessing whether borrowing costs have reached the cycle's endpoint or if further cuts are needed [6] - The eurozone's inflation rate fell slightly below the 2% target in May, with expectations for further slowdown by 2026 and a return to target by 2027 [6] - Nagel agreed that a prolonged period below the inflation target is unlikely, highlighting that core inflation remains elevated, particularly in service costs [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that public confidence in the Bank of England's ability to control inflation has increased from +1 to +6 [1] Group 2 - The survey reflects a growing optimism among the public regarding the effectiveness of the Bank of England's monetary policy [1] - This change in sentiment may influence future economic decisions and consumer behavior in the UK [1] - The increase in confidence could potentially lead to a more stable economic environment as public expectations align with the Bank's objectives [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to pause interest rate cuts in July after eight consecutive reductions, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - Some ECB officials believe the current rate-cutting cycle may be over, while others suggest waiting until September for another cut, with the outcome dependent on the trade negotiations deadline on July 9 [1][2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that current inflation is close to the 2% target, with the eurozone's May inflation rate falling below 2% for the first time in eight months, leading to a belief that the task of controlling inflation is nearing completion [2] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies are seen as a key variable affecting global confidence and economic growth prospects, creating uncertainty for the ECB's future actions [2] - Lagarde emphasized that the ECB's policy tools are ready to address uncertainties arising from global trade and increased European spending [2] - Following Lagarde's statements, market expectations for further ECB rate cuts this year have cooled, with traders no longer fully confident in another reduction [2]

加拿大央行：我们将支持经济增长，同时确保通胀保持在可控范围内。 ...

美联储理事库克：贸易政策为美联储的通胀控制和就业任务带来了风险。将在货币政策制定过程中平衡 美联储的目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is crucial in the current economic climate, particularly as the impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to fully materialize [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. inflation rate has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four consecutive years, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [3]. - The impact of tariffs, especially on intermediate goods, will not be immediate, leading to delayed effects on consumer prices [3]. - Ongoing global trade negotiations may last for months or even years, complicating the situation further [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Some policymakers advocate for interest rate cuts to support economic growth, viewing tariff impacts as short-term inflation shocks [1][3]. - However, the Federal Reserve, particularly through the views of Kashkari, emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the long-term effects of trade policies and tariffs on inflation and economic stability [1][3][5]. - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policies [5].

Group 1: Macro News - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth rate cut since August of the previous year, totaling a reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The current inflation rate in New Zealand is 2.5%, which is within the target range of 1%-3%, allowing for further monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank highlighted the "sharp shift in U.S. trade policy" as a key reason for increasing monetary easing, indicating potential negative impacts on New Zealand's export-dependent economy due to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods [3] Group 2: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently down, with the latest price at 771.64 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.67% [4] - The highest price reached today was 773.80 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 767.20 CNY per gram [4] - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 796-806 CNY per gram, with support levels between 733-743 CNY per gram [4]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about fiscal balance are not limited to the United States, with Japan's recent bond auction demand hitting a 10-year low, indicating broader global debt worries [1] Group 1: Debt Levels - The debt-to-GDP ratios for the US and UK stand at 100%, while Japan's is significantly higher at 250% [1] - In 1999, the debt-to-GDP ratios for these countries were much lower, at 41% for the US, 42% for the UK, and 113% for Japan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The current environment presents unprecedented challenges for the long-term bond market, as it has not been experienced in over 30 years amid high global debt levels [1] - An increase in bond supply is anticipated in the coming years, creating a pressing need for inflation control in the long-term market [1]

新华财经北京5月20日电（崔凯）在通胀持续回落、消费疲软以及全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，澳 洲联储（RBA）宣布将现金利率目标下调25个基点至3.85%。这是自2023年以来澳洲利率首次跌破4%， 进入"3"字头区间，标志着货币政策进一步转向宽松。 此次降息符合市场普遍预期。此前，货币市场和多数经济学家已预测到这一决定，主要基于以下几点： 消费者支出低迷、经济增长前景黯淡以及国际关税政策带来的不确定性上升。 通胀稳定，但增长与就业承压 澳洲联储在声明中指出，尽管目前通胀率已从2022年的峰值显著下降，并预计在未来三年内维持在 2.6%的水平，但经济增长面临压力。 全球风险加剧，澳洲政策路径存变数 澳洲联储特别指出，全球经济在过去三个月内不确定性大幅上升，金融市场波动剧烈。尽管近期有关关 税问题的声明推动金融市场价格反弹，但最终政策走向及其他国家的应对措施仍存在高度不确定性。 地缘政治紧张局势也可能进一步拖累全球经济活动。若家庭和企业因前景不明而推迟支出，澳大利亚的 增长、就业和通胀前景将进一步疲软。 不过，联储也表示，如果贸易紧张局势迅速缓解，全球经济增长可能提速，澳洲的降息幅度或将相应减 少。 根据预测： ...